getrichordie wrote:spearsy23 wrote:getrichordie wrote:
Why does it depend on how you get the shot?
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Increased chance to draw fouls, move the defense, open Lanes for passes and offensive rebounds when you take a shot moving towards the basket.
I get that. That makes sense. But at the same time, in a vacuum, Ferguson’s 31.3% shot holds a hair more value than a Westbrook 3-pointer and a Westbrook mid-range jumper. Again, I repeat, in a vacuum from a mathematical standpoint.
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sure, but you need to factor in usage. ferguson's usage and shot rate is low because he needs a specific set of circumstances to occur in order for him to shoot a three. westbrook can get a mid-range shot with more or less the same expected value any time he wants. so, it's really not comparable.
a player like ferguson shooting 31% from three on .700 3PAr just isn't valuable offensively. in fact, of players with .650 3PAr, it's atrocious. very few players shoot threes that often relative to other shots and shoot so poorly. josh huestis is an example. semi ojeleye in boston. ferguson shooting 31% from three is not a feather in his cap if that's 70% of the shots he's taking bro.








