The Wizards Going Forward: 2019 and Beyond

[nate33]

After the Ariza acquisition, coupled with the promising play of youngsters Bryant, Dekker, Sato and (hopefully) Brown, I think Ted and EG will opt to try and ride it out and see how this core fares for another couple of years. I don't think any of Wall, Beal or Porter will be traded. I think their offseason will go something like this.

First, Mahinmi will be stretched. That reduces his cap number from $15.5M to $5.2M

Under Contract:
Wall - $37.8M
Porter - $27.2M
Beal - $27.1M
Howard - $5.6M
Brown - $3.2M
2019 1st round pick - $2.7M
TOTAL $103.6M

Dead Money:
Mahinmi salary charge - $5.2M
TOTAL $5.2M

Cap Holds:
Sato - $5.9M
Dekker - $3.9M
Bryant - $1.8M
Green - $1.6M
vet minimum $0.9M
vet minimum $0.9M
TOTAL $15.0M

That's a total cap number of $123.8M with the luxtax threshold estimated at $132M. We are safely under the tax even after extending qualifying offers to all of the free agents we want to keep. Next, we have to hope that those free agents don't get offered all that much money above and beyond what we are accounting for with their cap holds. We will have $8M in spare cash before we bump into the luxtax.

• I'm thinking Dekker won't cost more than that $3.9M figure. We might not even extend that qualifying offer and hope to lock him up for even less. He has been a journeyman so far in his career.
• Sato might cost $9M, so there goes $3M of that $8M in cash. I don't know if people will pay more than that for a perimeter player who can't get his own shot and isn't a shutdown defender at the forward spot. I think Garrett Temple is a good example of what the market is for him. Someone might extend a full MLE offer.
• I don't think Bryant will cost much either, so long as he doesn't show much 3-pt shooting range in the next 50 games. Basic big men who can rebound and score around the basket but who can't switch out onto perimeter players are a dime-a-dozen these days. The expensive big men are the ones who can shoot and make decisions like Jokic and Gasol, or the hyper-mobile switchable guys like Capela and Adams. So figure maybe $4M.
• That leaves Jeff Green, whom I'd really like to keep. We have $3M left in our cash fund to tack onto his $1.6M cap hold charge. Would he stay on a 1-year deal (or longer) for $4M? I have no idea what the market will be for him. He had a very nice year and is probably worth that, but the league has a way of pigeon-holing veterans into lower salaries once they've accepted that demotion from big money contracts. Guys like Matt Barnes continued to be good bargains for years but never got much money.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I'm not convinced Mahinmi winds up stretched. That just punts the salary issues down the road a little too obviously. Ernie isn't a guy to just waive players so easily and admit mistakes. He hides that stuff. I think Mahinmi gets traded for a slightly smaller contract with a longer term to an equally undesirable player - Mahinmi for Dion Waiters? That kind of ugly trade. I don't think Ernie puts himself in a situation where he has 3 guys under contract, an MLE and then a bunch of minimum or rookie contracts in 2020-21. I also suspect Sato is gone, or if he isn't gone, he's going to put the team in the tax. Guards like Sato are in demand enough that he's going to get ~$10 mil this offseason at least, and no matter how you slice that, it's tax talk to keep him.

[pcbothwel]

Disagree.
We cannot compete with this group. Im willing to give it the month and let them play it out a little. But outside of a complete tear down... Beal, Green, and Ariza need to all be traded.

I love Beals deep tool box, work ethic, and maturity... which is why he is overrated by many folks who think he is a superstar. I too wanted him to take the leap, but he appears to be a fringe All Star. If you can get a "Star" return, you take hit and rebuild
Green is STUPID value on the Vet Min.

A team like Houston or LAL could trade for Ariza and Green, and completely transform their dynamic. They are GREAT role players who fit the modern NBA perfect... In fact, they are 2 of the reasons I would even want to wait a month.

I made a point in the game thread, but Wall is like Lebron in a lot of ways. His ball dominance and lack of consistent defensive energy can be maddening, but when surrounded by high IQ players that know how to hit an open 3, play defense, cut, and communicate (See Sato, Green, Ariza, Dekker, Bryant)... he thrives and so do they. Very symbiotic relationship.
Low IQ chuckers drain him and he starts resorting to Iso-Wall (See Oubre)

I think if you had a Danny Green/Josh Hart/Jeremy Lamb/Wes Matthews type SG next to Wall... We wouldnt skip a beat without Beal.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Oh, I definitely don't think what I wrote there is a good idea, pc. I'm not sure if a complete tear-down is actually required but some rather significant changes definitely are. Either way, with Ernie around we're going to see more of the same. He's not changing his stripes any time soon.

I'm not so sure about skipping a beat without Beal but really, if the team could add any players like that, not the guys you listed but unheralded players who can actually play like that for the cheap on the Wizards, they would be better with Beal and that player. Ernie hates scouting with the kind of detail needed to find those types of players, though.

[Ruzious]

I'm not convinced Mahinmi winds up stretched. That just punts the salary issues down the road a little too obviously. Ernie isn't a guy to just waive players so easily and admit mistakes. He hides that stuff. I think Mahinmi gets traded for a slightly smaller contract with a longer term to an equally undesirable player - Mahinmi for Dion Waiters? That kind of ugly trade. I don't think Ernie puts himself in a situation where he has 3 guys under contract, an MLE and then a bunch of minimum or rookie contracts in 2020-21. I also suspect Sato is gone, or if he isn't gone, he's going to put the team in the tax. Guards like Sato are in demand enough that he's going to get ~$10 mil this offseason at least, and no matter how you slice that, it's tax talk to keep him.

Otoh, they've basically admitted signing Mahinmi was a mistake by not playing him. Stretching Mahinmi takes a lot less work than finding a trade partner for him, so I'm guessing they stretch him. Then again, I thought they were going to do the stretch thing this season. Maybe they do have some trepidation of deferring the salary. Or more likely, they thought they were going to need Mahinmi this season in their quest for playoff success.

[I_Like_Dirt]

The Wizards amnestied Blatche, so I guess there is precedent for such a thing. I'm just not so sure Ernie is going to waive a big salary like that. It really isn't something he has a track record of.

That said, I'm not even sure they should. Punting the pain like that general causes problems. Given the contract I expect Sato to receive, I think he's gone either way. Dekker and Bryant... maybe it's the difference on them, maybe not. It depends a bit on how free agency shakes down. To keep players like that on the "cheap" you often need to get out ahead of the game and offer extensions to the players you like before they even hit free agency. I don't believe Dekker can be extended at this point but that's the general idea.

The thing is, what the Wizards need in their current predicament is draft picks or long term cheap contracts. Their salary cap is going to be crushed by Wall for the foreseeable future and that on its own isn't actually as horrible as it's made out to be. The reality is that signing UFAs from other teams is generally an absolutely terrible idea unless you're getting a star or signing a cheap FA once the initial feeding frenzy is over. The Wizards don't need veteran free agents. Because Ernie has been busy turning draft picks into veteran free agents and then using draft picks to get rid of those veteran free agents, the team is both low on draft picks and now low on potential trade ballast, too. That's also part of my thinking on Mahinmi being traded rather than stretched. We will see, though. I'm not particularly optimistic about anything the Wizards do in any given offseason unless it starts with "Ernie Grunfeld was fired and..."

[Ruzious]

That's an inteesting question - whether or not they can extend Dekker before he hits free agency. I don't think they'll do it during the season. Since he'll be an RFA, they can wait to see what kind of offers he gets and match. But, say if Green gets injured or traded - it's possible Dekker gets into the starting lineup and if he starts hitting 3's, his perceived value could substantially increase.

Decker was chosen how many picks after Oubre?

Spoiler:

3

[dckingsfan]

And of course the elephant in the room. Wall wants to play in LA - that was a nice audition.

[dckingsfan]

...I'm not particularly optimistic about anything the Wizards do in any given offseason unless it starts with "Ernie Grunfeld was fired and..."

[FAH1223]

I think Sato gets a range around $6M-$7M per year for 3 years. Wizards should keep him.

Stretching Mahinmi in July makes the most sense. They weren't going to do it this past summer because he still had $30M left. Now he has $15M which you can stretch over 3 years.

[nate33]

I think Sato gets a range around $6M-$7M per year for 3 years. Wizards should keep him.

Stretching Mahinmi in July makes the most sense. They weren't going to do it this past summer because he still had $30M left. Now he has $15M which you can stretch over 3 years.

What makes stretching Mahinmi attractive is the fact that the salary cap is expected to jump considerably in 2020 when the gambling money kicks in. Yes, we are trading pain now for pain later, but it's the now part that's really tight. In 2020 and beyond, the cap crunch might not be so bad. After this summer, we don't have anybody that are due for big raises for quite some time.

[nate33]

Disagree.
We cannot compete with this group. Im willing to give it the month and let them play it out a little. But outside of a complete tear down... Beal, Green, and Ariza need to all be traded.

I love Beals deep tool box, work ethic, and maturity... which is why he is overrated by many folks who think he is a superstar. I too wanted him to take the leap, but he appears to be a fringe All Star. If you can get a "Star" return, you take hit and rebuild
Green is STUPID value on the Vet Min.

A team like Houston or LAL could trade for Ariza and Green, and completely transform their dynamic. They are GREAT role players who fit the modern NBA perfect... In fact, they are 2 of the reasons I would even want to wait a month.

I made a point in the game thread, but Wall is like Lebron in a lot of ways. His ball dominance and lack of consistent defensive energy can be maddening, but when surrounded by high IQ players that know how to hit an open 3, play defense, cut, and communicate (See Sato, Green, Ariza, Dekker, Bryant)... he thrives and so do they. Very symbiotic relationship.
Low IQ chuckers drain him and he starts resorting to Iso-Wall (See Oubre)

I think if you had a Danny Green/Josh Hart/Jeremy Lamb/Wes Matthews type SG next to Wall... We wouldnt skip a beat without Beal.

I'd prefer a teardown too. I just don't think it'll happen. Or rather, assuming Ariza helps carry this current team to the 8th seed or better, it won't happen.

If the team makes the playoffs, it will justify EG's "all in" approach and there will be no argument to tear it up afterwards. It just doesn't seem likely to me that they'll trade Wall, Beal or Porter. I suppose Porter is the only guy that I could see them trading if they can get back a pretty stable wing to replace him at a lower salary.

[Illmatic12]

Disagree.
We cannot compete with this group. Im willing to give it the month and let them play it out a little. But outside of a complete tear down... Beal, Green, and Ariza need to all be traded.

I love Beals deep tool box, work ethic, and maturity... which is why he is overrated by many folks who think he is a superstar. I too wanted him to take the leap, but he appears to be a fringe All Star. If you can get a "Star" return, you take hit and rebuild
Green is STUPID value on the Vet Min.

A team like Houston or LAL could trade for Ariza and Green, and completely transform their dynamic. They are GREAT role players who fit the modern NBA perfect... In fact, they are 2 of the reasons I would even want to wait a month.

I made a point in the game thread, but Wall is like Lebron in a lot of ways. His ball dominance and lack of consistent defensive energy can be maddening, but when surrounded by high IQ players that know how to hit an open 3, play defense, cut, and communicate (See Sato, Green, Ariza, Dekker, Bryant)... he thrives and so do they. Very symbiotic relationship.
Low IQ chuckers drain him and he starts resorting to Iso-Wall (See Oubre)

I think if you had a Danny Green/Josh Hart/Jeremy Lamb/Wes Matthews type SG next to Wall... We wouldnt skip a beat without Beal.

I'd prefer a teardown too. I just don't think it'll happen. Or rather, assuming Ariza helps carry this current team to the 8th seed or better, it won't happen.

If the team makes the playoffs, it will justify EG's "all in" approach and there will be no argument to tear it up afterwards. It just doesn't seem likely to me that they'll trade Wall, Beal or Porter. I suppose Porter is the only guy that I could see them trading if they can get back a pretty stable wing to replace him at a lower salary.

I think Beal is going to be traded simply because he's likely to request a trade after the season (he won't do it now because he isn't the type to cause a distraction).

At that point we'll start soliciting Beal offers and look for the best package of players than can suit Wall, because I don't think he's going anywhere. The key is that we have to win the Beal trade in the way that Indiana won the Paul George trade. We need to get two rotation players with high upside who end up being better than their trade value, ala Oladipo + Sabonis .

[nate33]

Disagree.
We cannot compete with this group. Im willing to give it the month and let them play it out a little. But outside of a complete tear down... Beal, Green, and Ariza need to all be traded.

I love Beals deep tool box, work ethic, and maturity... which is why he is overrated by many folks who think he is a superstar. I too wanted him to take the leap, but he appears to be a fringe All Star. If you can get a "Star" return, you take hit and rebuild
Green is STUPID value on the Vet Min.

A team like Houston or LAL could trade for Ariza and Green, and completely transform their dynamic. They are GREAT role players who fit the modern NBA perfect... In fact, they are 2 of the reasons I would even want to wait a month.

I made a point in the game thread, but Wall is like Lebron in a lot of ways. His ball dominance and lack of consistent defensive energy can be maddening, but when surrounded by high IQ players that know how to hit an open 3, play defense, cut, and communicate (See Sato, Green, Ariza, Dekker, Bryant)... he thrives and so do they. Very symbiotic relationship.
Low IQ chuckers drain him and he starts resorting to Iso-Wall (See Oubre)

I think if you had a Danny Green/Josh Hart/Jeremy Lamb/Wes Matthews type SG next to Wall... We wouldnt skip a beat without Beal.

I'd prefer a teardown too. I just don't think it'll happen. Or rather, assuming Ariza helps carry this current team to the 8th seed or better, it won't happen.

If the team makes the playoffs, it will justify EG's "all in" approach and there will be no argument to tear it up afterwards. It just doesn't seem likely to me that they'll trade Wall, Beal or Porter. I suppose Porter is the only guy that I could see them trading if they can get back a pretty stable wing to replace him at a lower salary.

I think Beal is going to be traded simply because he's likely to request a trade after the season (he won't do it now because he isn't the type to cause a distraction).

At that point we'll start soliciting Beal offers and look for the best package of players than can suit Wall, because I don't think he's going anywhere. The key is that we have to win the Beal trade in the way that Indiana won the Paul George trade. We need to get two rotation players with high upside who end up being better than their trade value, ala Oladipo + Sabonis .

I could live with that. Of course, with EG at the helm, what are the odds of that working out?

I do agree in general that Beal is probably a bit overrated by the league, giving him trade value that may be in excess of his actual value. My biggest concern however, is that Beal keeps getting better (by "eye test" anyway, maybe not statistically). He adds something to his game every year. 28-year-old Beal might be quite a bit better than 25-year-old Beal.

[Illmatic12]

I'd prefer a teardown too. I just don't think it'll happen. Or rather, assuming Ariza helps carry this current team to the 8th seed or better, it won't happen.

If the team makes the playoffs, it will justify EG's "all in" approach and there will be no argument to tear it up afterwards. It just doesn't seem likely to me that they'll trade Wall, Beal or Porter. I suppose Porter is the only guy that I could see them trading if they can get back a pretty stable wing to replace him at a lower salary.

I think Beal is going to be traded simply because he's likely to request a trade after the season (he won't do it now because he isn't the type to cause a distraction).

At that point we'll start soliciting Beal offers and look for the best package of players than can suit Wall, because I don't think he's going anywhere. The key is that we have to win the Beal trade in the way that Indiana won the Paul George trade. We need to get two rotation players with high upside who end up being better than their trade value, ala Oladipo + Sabonis .

I could live with that. Of course, with EG at the helm, what are the odds of that working out?

I do agree in general that Beal is probably a bit overrated by the league, giving him trade value that may be in excess of his actual value. My biggest concern however, is that Beal keeps getting better (by "eye test" anyway, maybe not statistically). He adds something to his game every year. 28-year-old Beal might be quite a bit better than 25-year-old Beal.

Player development doesn't always work that way though . Ray Allen is a common Beal comp, and he had his peak season (ws/48, BPM, VORP) at age 25 .

One has to ask the question - what aspects of Beal's game will he meaningfully improve from here on out? And how much will that transform his overall game? Brad has improved his ballhandling and finishing strength significantly from his rookie year, but imo any further improvements here on out will be marginal, since he's maxed out his physical ability.

The way I see it, the only way for Beal to become a next-level player is to expand his 3pt shooting to become a more deadly high volume shooter off the dribble (ala Curry, Lillard, Kemba etc). And so far, the signs for that are not very favorable as his 3pt shooting has regressed sharply over the past 18 months coinciding with an increase in his 3pt attempts. This is the main reason why I want to move him - before the reputation of his shooting catches up to the reality.

[truwizfan4evr]

if this ariza experiment fails,could Ernie then be fired?

[truwizfan4evr]

I'm not convinced Mahinmi winds up stretched. That just punts the salary issues down the road a little too obviously. Ernie isn't a guy to just waive players so easily and admit mistakes. He hides that stuff. I think Mahinmi gets traded for a slightly smaller contract with a longer term to an equally undesirable player - Mahinmi for Dion Waiters? That kind of ugly trade. I don't think Ernie puts himself in a situation where he has 3 guys under contract, an MLE and then a bunch of minimum or rookie contracts in 2020-21. I also suspect Sato is gone, or if he isn't gone, he's going to put the team in the tax. Guards like Sato are in demand enough that he's going to get ~$10 mil this offseason at least, and no matter how you slice that, it's tax talk to keep him.

who the hell taking Ian contract? he has zero trade value.

[BigA]

I think nate33's scenario in the threadstarter is probably correct. However, if they take another nosedive and play like crap for most of the rest of the season without significant additional injuries, there may be some pressure not to take a "business as usual" approach.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I think Beal is going to be traded simply because he's likely to request a trade after the season (he won't do it now because he isn't the type to cause a distraction).

At that point we'll start soliciting Beal offers and look for the best package of players than can suit Wall, because I don't think he's going anywhere. The key is that we have to win the Beal trade in the way that Indiana won the Paul George trade. We need to get two rotation players with high upside who end up being better than their trade value, ala Oladipo + Sabonis .

I could live with that. Of course, with EG at the helm, what are the odds of that working out?

I do agree in general that Beal is probably a bit overrated by the league, giving him trade value that may be in excess of his actual value. My biggest concern however, is that Beal keeps getting better (by "eye test" anyway, maybe not statistically). He adds something to his game every year. 28-year-old Beal might be quite a bit better than 25-year-old Beal.

Player development doesn't always work that way though . Ray Allen is a common Beal comp, and he had his peak season (ws/48, BPM, VORP) at age 25 .

One has to ask the question - what aspects of Beal's game will he meaningfully improve from here on out? And how much will that transform his overall game? Brad has improved his ballhandling and finishing strength significantly from his rookie year, but imo any further improvements here on out will be marginal, since he's maxed out his physical ability.

The way I see it, the only way for Beal to become a next-level player is to expand his 3pt shooting to become a more deadly high volume shooter off the dribble (ala Curry, Lillard, Kemba etc). And so far, the signs for that are not very favorable as his 3pt shooting has regressed sharply over the past 18 months coinciding with an increase in his 3pt attempts. This is the main reason why I want to move him - before the reputation of his shooting catches up to the reality.

The way I see it is that BB has room to grow mentally. When he thinks, he’s not great. When he just plays, he’s very good.

Free throws, especially techs and open threes... not as good as he could be.

Work with a sports psychologist... hit one extra free throw and one open three per game and his average goes from low to mid twenties to high twenties.

Few players who score in the high twenties with reasonable efficiency aren’t superstars.

He regularly leaves four points on the table each night.

[gtn130]

I'm personally just really excited for this forthcoming playoff push. Getting swept by Toronto/Philly/Milwaukee/Boston in R1 is something I've dreamt of all my life