MagicMatic wrote:“Good” free agents also don’t sign with mediocre teams that aren’t true contenders. They know the difference. Now this obviously depends on your definition of “good”, but the turnover of “good” free agents varies based on who they place their bets on to win.
Orlando will be overpaying “good” free agents until they are convincing enough to be contenders. That may or may not even happen with our two “best players” regardless. We were close enough to not making the playoffs this year. We could easily bring everyone back and not make them next year dependent on circumstances.
You are taking production at face value and upward projections too literally. Production doesn’t always replace production 100% of the time. There are more factors than that.
Yes they do, maybe not the superstar guys who only go to contenders or major markets, but good high quality players sign with teams who are clearly trying to get into playoffs all the time.
You don't have to overpay good unrestricted free agents if you have a good track record of maintaining competitive context. Teams like Utah, Indiana, Milwaukee etc continuously do that.
Just because you only choose to see the worst possible outcome doesn't make that the likely outcome.
Vucevic is in his peak prime for 2-3 years and nothing he did this year is all that unsustainable. In fact, I can see his 3pt shooting and passing get even better, as well as his team defense as continuity will give him boost.
Fournier had his worst shooting season ever, before last year he was ascending in all aspects of the game and had been improving every year before that...this upcoming season he'll be 27 thus entering what in NBA is the physical and production peak stage...its way more likely that he returns to form (or better) than that the opposite happens.
Gordon enters his peak ascent which is when young players often take a big step in productions and efficiency. He'll have that with oaching and system continuity if Vucevic is retained.
Bamba and Isaac will get bigger and stronger - that's inevitable...and they'll have more experience and have another full summer of individual player development with NBA level staff around them. If you want to think that equals them likely regressing, go right ahead.
Fultz is an unknown, but there is a reason he was #1 pick, he has talent even if he can't shoot. He's already as good if not better athlete, passer, way better ball handler and finisher than Elfrid Payton was...the upside is all-star PG/#1 option. That's not nothing.
+ their young role players (Iwundu/Frazier/Briscoe) also enter higher development level so likelihood is they come back better.
...and then the Magic are adding a #16 pick player to the roster.