It's draft DAY! Who should we take at 16? (Poll)

[PrimeThyme]

The poll options will include players who could realistically be in our range at 16 based off recent mock drafts.

I'm currently zeroed in on two prospects:

Spoiler:

NAW && Herro. I think both could potentially be Fournier replacements for us down the road and both could provide immediate impact with their shot making. With NAW's defensive capabilities, playmaking potential, and physical measurements he is currently my 1A prospect and the player I voted for but I would not be mad in the slightest if we left with Herro.

KPJ/Langford would be decent enough consolation prizes.

[j-ragg]

I don’t think Little will be there when we pick so I’m going with Herro.

[Def Swami]

This is kind of how I've processed the prospects in our range:

Shooters that Can Shoot:
1. Nickeil Alexander Walker
2. Tyler Herro
3. Keldon Johnson

NAW doesn't particularly excel at one thing, but is good at a lot of them. Good shooter, good passer, good ball handler, and plus defender. He lacks the explosiveness or athleticism to ever see him becoming a star player. He's pretty frail at the moment. But, similar to his cousin SGA, he's solid all-around. He plays with a high IQ and plays the within himself. I like the potential of him being able to play some point guard.

Herro only shot 35% from 3, but it's clear that he can shoot. He played the offensive end with good competitiveness, but left a lot to be desired on the defensive end. His lack of length and defensive prowess make me hesitant about this pick. But, he might have potential to be a floor spacer and threat from 3. His free throw % and 2point % are good indicators. He can play well without the ball as well. Wouldn't be upset with this pick. But, I like how much more dynamic NAW is.

Johnson shot 38% from 3. He's a bit more dynamic a scorer than Herro. He's really competitive and plays with great effort. He has the physical tools to be a good defender, but was just okay on that end this year. He's not a great ball handler and not a great playmaker. But there's 3&D potential there down the road.

Shooters that Can't Shoot:
1. Romeo Langford
2. Kevin Porter Jr.

Langford was a top recruit coming out of school, and his MO was scoring. He shot the ball poorly from 3 (only 27%), but I don't think his form is that unworkable. And he had a few games this year where he put IU on his back and kept them afloat with his scoring. Despite his poor 3 point shooting, he had flashes. He’s agile with or without the ball, and has a quick first step. He has innate scoring instincts with the way he creates space with his crossover and step backs, and absorbing contact at the rim.

KPJ shot 41% from 3, but only on 68 attempts. But his form is ugly and only shot 52% from the free throw line. Similar to Langford, he has these flashes and moves that have the look of a star scoring guard. Neither NAW nor Herro have those moves in their arsenal, but they're good at the moves they do have.

I wouldn't be shocked if one of Langford or Porter Jr. ends up figuring it out and becoming star guards at some point. I could also see them flaming out of the league, and I'd probably bet on the latter.

Athlete that Can't Shoot...Yet?
1. Nas Little

I keep coming back to Little. He was a top flight recruit out of high school for a reason. He does everything well except shoot, but he occasionally pulled out a mid-range J and shot free throws well at 77%. I've become so resistant to drafting this kind of player after all the poor shooters the Magic have drafted since 2014, but if you're going to take a swing on a guy who could one day develop star potential, it might be Little. He has the physical profile and athleticism to defend at a high level. He plays a selfless and high intensity game. He reminds me of Jonathan Isaac in this way. If he ever were to develop a 3 point shot, he'll be the best player of this bunch. He reminds me of OG Anunoby. By all accounts, he's a high character guy as well. If you're going to bet on anyone learning to shoot, it might be him. I could easily see Weltman and Hammond taking a swing on the Florida native here.

8 days out and I'm between NAW and Little. NAW is the safe pick and fills some holes. But Little probably has the higher ceiling. Maybe Little isn't available to make that decision easier. If I had to pick right now, I'd probably go with NAW.

[basketballRob]

I think our number one need is ball handling so I went with NAW. If he's gone I'd take Claxton.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[drsd]

I also went with Alexander-Walker; he has overtaken Langford on my BPA list for wing players. His length and shooting suggest real bench potential. (At #16 a team is drafting for the bench).

[SOUL]

I'm not enamored with NAW. He looks solid, which is fine, but he sort of reminds me of an E'Twaun Moore type of player. I also question him getting to the rim consistently versus NBA competition, since he looked a bit shaky in the highlights I've seen of him. Nice stroke and decision making, but yeah, feel like there could be some higher ceiling players at that spot.

[Nyce_1]

Damn, no love for Cam Johnson?

[Message Boar]

I voted for Nassir Little but I don't feel too good about it. My argument is that, as long as we are not within reach of contention (for a title), we should generally take high upside swings at players who fit our team building philosophy, which at the moment seems to be length+versatility+character. Once a team is a true contender for a title, or close to it, then you start drafting to fill holes on the roster.

The ones you listed are currently ranked as follows on my (Magic-specific) board:

8. Nassir Little (high, I know. I might have major egg on my face five years from now, but I like him a lot)
10. Romeo Langford (same as above)
11. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
12. Brandon Clarke
14. Keldon Johnson
16. Bol Bol
17. PJ Washington
18. Kevin Porter jr.
19. KZ Okpala
23. Tyler Herro (might move him up to above Porter jr, but I haven't decided yet)

Then again, I badly wanted Hezonja the year we drafted him (not as much as KP, but still) and Bamba last year. The former was a bust for us and the latter hasn't proven himself yet either, so what the hell do I know.

[NotACat]

Wish we could do a ranked choice poll

[PrimeThyme]

Wish we could do a ranked choice poll

What do you mean?

[The Effect]

Herro, Cameron Johnson or NAW (not sure the order yet) for me

[NotACat]

Wish we could do a ranked choice poll

What do you mean?

Have a poll in which we could rank players 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. And see who got the most 1st place votes, 2nd place, etc.

[ZeusIsLoose]

Trade it with Evan

[yoyojw17]

I went with Romeo langford. I believe he is a great balance between known decent floor and high ceiling potential in the range of the draft. If he shot 36% from the 3.... i would guarantee he would be in the "top 5" conversation. The guy checks everything that i would like to see from the 2 position on both sides of the court... minus the 3 ball. And the 3 ball could easily be a surgery away from being a reality. With that... you would have a player that can score at all 3 levels and gets to the line at a great rate. His fall can be our gain.

[OrlandoNed]

I also went with Alexander-Walker; he has overtaken Langford on my BPA list for wing players. His length and shooting suggest real bench potential. (At #16 a team is drafting for the bench).

Courtney Lee says hi.

[RookieStar]

Get me a shooter not an athlete.

I remember our championship days with Dwight when the most athletic guy we had outside of him was probably Pietrus. The rest were just campers in the 3pt-line but could chuck away any day.

[spinedoc]

What we need is a Herro, I'm holding out for one, lol. Outside shooting is what we lack.

[The Effect]

I also went with Alexander-Walker; he has overtaken Langford on my BPA list for wing players. His length and shooting suggest real bench potential. (At #16 a team is drafting for the bench).

Courtney Lee says hi.

Exactly who I think of when I watched NAW

[nymets1]

Is there a website or a person that can give us a % of landing a star with the 16th pick? People seem to think the draft drops off after the 3rd pick. I think there has been a 16th pick in the NBA draft history that became a star. It might be unlikely but it can happen certainly better than 0% chance. I would think between 10% to 20% chance we hit big on the 16th pick and he eventually becomes a star whether its in Orlando or he went elsewhere. 50% to 60% chance the 16th pick becomes a 6th man or a starter.

[drsd]

Is there a website or a person that can give us a % of landing a star with the 16th pick? People seem to think the draft drops off after the 3rd pick. I think there has been a 16th pick in the NBA draft history that became a star. It might be unlikely but it can happen certainly better than 0% chance. I would think between 10% to 20% chance we hit big on the 16th pick and he eventually becomes a star whether its in Orlando or he went elsewhere. 50% to 60% chance the 16th pick becomes a 6th man or a starter.

One way to look at this is all-stars by pick. At #16, you have John Stockton, Rickey Green, Metta World Peace, Chris Gatling, Dana Barros, and of course Nikola Vučević.

So: one Hall of Famer and a bunch of OK'ish players.



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