Peaks project update: #2

Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ

User avatar
E-Balla
RealGM
Posts: 35,822
And1: 25,116
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
Location: The Poster Formerly Known As The Gotham City Pantalones
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#61 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 4, 2019 2:02 pm

ardee wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
ardee wrote:
1. Wade was drastically healthier and better in the 2012 Playoffs than in 2013. Sure Bosh missed some games but 2012 Wade still played close to a top 5 level. 2013 he was a literal scrub at times. Both years he had a low point in the second round (2-13 game against Indy in 2012, 3-10 game in 2013 against the Bulls). After that in 2012 he flipped the switch and went 24/6/5 on 54% TS the rest of the Playoffs. In 2013 he only did 18/5/5 on 50% TS after that game. Defense significantly better in 2012 too.

2. If we're talking postseasons then why not just go with any of '09 or '16-'18 LeBron? Easily his best postseason performances. I voted '17 myself, statistically '12 doesn't compare, he still had an effective Wade at least then. '17 Irving actually struggled a good bit in those Playoffs.

I would rank his Playoffs as:

17
18
09/16
13
12
14
15
11

IMO, 12-14 were the years people became comfortable mentioning his play in Jordan comparisons, but 16-18 were the years he forced the door wide open and forced Jordan off the throne.

1. Bosh didn't just miss some games, he was hurt for almost half the postseason. That's a way bigger deal IMO. Plus as hurt as Wade was they added Ray Allen. Allen + Bosh makes up for Wade's injury if you ask me.

2. Well I am personally going with 09 (not only his best postseason but by far his best regular season and I think that's something everyone should agree on as it's a season he won his most games in with his worst supporting cast) and his 12 postseason is the same level as, if not better than, his 16-18 postseasons. There's some extreme amount of recency bias in you mentioning the 16-18 postseasons as if LeBron wasn't as good, if not better, in 2012.

If you rank 17 and 18 as his top 2 I'm just flat out assuming you care zero 0% about the quality of the defenses he was playing, how many of his games were competitive, or the quality of defense he personally played. I think 09, 16, or 12 are easily his 3 best postseasons when you take those things into account.

For one he played elite DPOY caliber defense in the 2009, 2012, and 2016 postseason, meanwhile he didn't play defense in 17 and 18 much at all. His team's relative defensive rating each of those years was

09: -5.6
12: -2.9
16: -2.9
17: -0.4
18: +0.9

So there's actually numbers that go along with my eye test and his defense most likely fell off those years like I assumed. Maybe you rank those years at the top but I'm not one to just look at numbers and take the 2 years he made the Finals with the highest scoring averages. Ranking his postseasons adjusting for consistency, quality of opponent, level of defense he played, and the teammates he had gives me:

09
12/16
18
15
17
14
13
10
11

And I can understand people ranking 17 and 18 so high. What I can't understand is why anyone would rank 2013 over 2014 or 2015 when he was clearly worse on both sides of the ball.

As far as the 2013 postseason goes it's not anywhere near GOAT level, it's probably under each of Kobe's 08-10 postseasons.


1. Have to agree to disagree there. Having another competent perimeter creator opened up so much for Bron in '12, that's why his production was better in '12. In '13 Wade's knee was busted and he couldn't do the cutting/driving he was capable of the previous year, allowing defenses to zero in on LeBron more. I respect the hell out of Bosh and he's a great overall player but the dude averaged 12/7 on 52% TS in the '13 Playoffs, he wasn't opening up too much for Bron and probably suffered from Wade's injury too. LeBron's jumper was dead in the water in '12 (especially later on) and he was more consistent with it in '13. He got better at everything in '13, wouldn't it make sense that an external factor (Wade's injury) caused the production drop in the Playoffs, and then when Wade was able to move better towards the end of the Finals, LeBron's own production skyrocketed in the last 4 games?

2. It's not that the '17 and '18 defenses he faced don't matter, it's more that I don't think it would've mattered what defenses he faced anyway. By this point he had basically broken basketball on a level never seen before.

Here's a post by Dr Spaceman about him:

Dr Spaceman wrote:
70sFan wrote:
There is nothing wrong with that statement, but I still can't understand how anyone can feel very comfortable saying one player was better than any player EVER. I mean, yeah James did something legendary last postseason but we have so many legendary moments in NBA history. Bill Russell was possibly the most impactful player ever in 1964 season even though he didn't score at all. Kareem won tough series against very good team with guards that struggled to bring the ball to the halfcourt. Wilt basically averaged TD during whole playoffs, dominated the best dynasty in sports history and leading one of the best teams of all-time. Hakeem and Duncan led their teams on both ends of the floor without any great teammates to the championship beating better teams. Shaq doing his things in early 2000s...

James was spectacular last season. He was so good in playoffs, I truly believed that Cavs wouldn't have beaten Celtics and he proved me wrong. I thought that Cavs wouldn't have been competitive in any game in the finals and he (almost by himself) basically won game 1 (I've not seen such a terrible officiating in a long time). Last season should be the point since nobody should even question James legacy among the greatest of the greatest. I really admire what he did, sometimes I may look like James hater (I hope I don’t) because he's not among my favorite players but believe that I really admire what he did. To say that someone is clearly the best I've seen is impossible to me. To say that he's the best ever is even tougher, as we can't see whole NBA history (unfortunately).


I understand your point here and your reservation but to be honest it’s not about dominance for me. Lebron has proved several times over in his career how dominant he is, as have other guys.

No for me what’s unprecedented about LeBron is how amazing he’s gotten late in his career at reading the game and how many tools he’s developed to counter whatever is being thrown at him. There’s just no one who comes close. He has the experience of someone who’s seen it all and yet has still maintained his body to the point where he can attack like a much younger man. His ceiling right now is limitless and I don’t use that term lightly. He a\has essentially solved basketball, and these crushing dominant performances aren’t an accident.

I put it this way earlier: there has been no player in NBA history who has so quickly gone from diagnosing an action to blowing it up on both ends of the floor. The closest I’ve seen is Garnett, who lacked the scoring tools to do what LeBron does in 4th quarters. Lebron has always seen the game at a super advanced level but earlier it held him back because he saw the best way to attack a defense but wasn’t great at those skills yet. But now he’s great at everything, and it’s jsut a **** for the rest of the league trying to slow him down.

I just don’t know how many times we need to go through this where the playoff rolls around and LeBron is so clearly head and shoulders above everyone before we accept he’s the GOAT. Wilt was awesome but he’s not a ball handler. Russell was dominant but his offense is nowhere near Bron’s. Shaq couldn’t handle the ball or defend like Bron either and Kareem wasn’t an elite passer. Jordan was a monstrous scorer but couldn’t playmake or handle the ball like LeBron, and certainly couldn’t defend like him.

It’s over for me. Lebron just owns basketball in a way I didn’t understand and couldn’t really envision until the last two seasons. 2013 or 2009 LeBron I’d say we’re about as good as the best of Shaq, MJ, Wilt but it’s different now.


Remember this: he averaged 34/12/10 on 63% TS against the 2nd ranked defense in the league, the GOAT team GSW in '17. He was more than capable of tearing up elite defenses to historic numbers.

Honestly, I'm going to change my vote. I love and have championed Wilt as the GOAT peak for a long time, but rereading that Spaceman post makes me think that '17 and '18 LeBron is pretty much the best basketball player to ever exist.

Edit:

3. Also, '13 vs '14 and '15... You're saying '13 was worse than both on both ends? Wut? If we're talking Playoffs only he was better defensively in '13 than in '14 without a doubt, and better offensively than in '15. His jumper was dead, finished, non-existent in '15. He shot 38% from 3 in the '13 Playoffs despite dealing with Wade on one leg. I also think the only year he matched or exceeded his '13 defense after that was in '16, definitely better than '15. There's a reason his defense was described as resurgent in '16, it wasn't great in '15.

I will admit '14 offense was better than '13 though and arguably the best of his career till '17.

Why are you so high on '15? To me it measures out as the worst year of his prime, close only to '11.

1. We just won't see eye to eye on this one. Bosh wasn't amazing but he was the clear 3rd best player on the team by a distance and Ray Allen was the 4th best player on that 2013 team. Wade after the Indiana series in 2012 averaged 22/6/5 on 52 TS%. His 20/4/5 on 51 TS% in the 2013 Finals ain't far off that, and his performance against Boston definitely wasn't.

2. Yeah the concept he'd do the same regardless of defense is absurd when I watch the games and clearly see how bad the defense is and how that facilitates him in doing what he has to do. It's even more absurd when you consider the fact that for every player in every sport ever the quality of the defense they played effected their play. You're quite literally telling me LeBron's not just the GOAT, but the GOAT athlete in all of sports by far. The only one not at all affected by defenses. I'm not buying it.

No one can tell me this 38 point, 7 assist night:



Is more impressive than this 32 point, 5 assist night:



Just look at the defense being played and the difficulty of what he's doing in that 2012 clip vs the 2017 one. Put that LeBron in the league now and he's lighting it up even more. His athleticism wasn't at its peak in 2018 at all but that's his career high in dunks because defenses are garbage now. He'd be on Giannis 4 dunks a night status.

And his averages against Golden State just don't matter to me. The games weren't competitive, his defense wasn't very good, and he played great but it's not nearly as impressive as many other series he's had. I mean look at this #2 defense:



And I want to add the Warriors DRTG was a 103.4 in the regular season. The average DRTG Lebron played in 2012 was a 100.3 and not a single team he played gave up as much points per possession as Golden State. It's like bragging on how much LeBron dominated the Bulls in 2010 (32/9/8 on 67 TS% against a similar quality defense in a similarly uncompetitive series) or bragging on how much MJ roasted the 89 Cavs (40/6/8 on 60 TS% vs a 102.9 DRTG). There's just a difference when you're doing it against a good defense vs a great defense like the 2012 Celtics.

3. I was saying LeBron in the 2013 playoffs was worse on both ends. His defense was terrible in 14 though so thinking back on it you're right there.

And 15 is bad if you look at numbers but he was consistently aggressive. The Celtics series I don't really care about because they were a cupcake team and a W is a W.

vs Chicago he was stuck being guarded by Jimmy who is lock down and held LeBron to 39% shooting. His jumper wouldn't fall either and LeBron legit had a mediocre series offensively.

vs Atlanta this would've been another series I didn't care about but then Kyrie got hurt leaving LeBron alone having to play back to back 60+ won teams with TT, Delly, Shump, and Mozgov in the starting 5 next to him. TT might've been the only above average player in the rotation. The next 8 games to end the playoffs LeBron averaged 34/13/9 on 48 TS% with a 106 ORTG (8.8 TOV%) and his inefficiency is mainly due to Iguodala. He shot 33% against Iggy and 24% on contested shots by Iggy (41% on shots contested by everyone else). That's what great defense does when you have no help but LeBron still did great to drag Cleveland to 2 wins with damn near no one else on the team that was decent. That's just way more impressive than more efficient performances with great teammates against cupcake defenses in uncompetitive series.
User avatar
E-Balla
RealGM
Posts: 35,822
And1: 25,116
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
Location: The Poster Formerly Known As The Gotham City Pantalones
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#62 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 4, 2019 2:14 pm

LA Bird wrote:2017 LeBron shouldn't be grouped with 2018 as a zero defense season. He was just below +2 DRAPM/DRPM and put up elite man defense numbers in the playoffs before he got destroyed by Golden State in the Finals. OTOH, 2018 LeBron was a negative on defense for the entire season. I would say LeBron's 2017 defense was much closer to his 2013 level despite 13 being often touted as one of LeBron's best defensive seasons. LeBron not picking up All D selections in 16/17 coupled with his trash defense in 18 has unfortunately distorted many people's memories of his defense during the 2nd Cavs run. It is blatantly false but "LeBron left his defense in Miami" is actually a common opinion held by the majority outside of this board.

BTW, I found this post from just before the 2017 Finals to show LeBron's defense was thought of pretty highly at the time:

SideshowBob wrote:His defense vs. the Eastern Confrence has been better than last season. Sustained off ball activity level in some of these games given his offensive load. I kept losing count of how many times he blew up movement towards the lane.

I think he's slipped a bit in 1on1 since 09/10/11 but his help game might be peaking - motor is better these days than like 2013 and IQ/awareness/experience are at an all time high.

Meh. I butted heads with people over his defense each of those years. The numbers and eye test just doesn't lineup with what you're saying. Like sure LeBron was a +1.8 defender by RAPM but we're comparing that LeBron to 2009-12 LeBron who was on average a +2.7 defender. 2017 LeBron is closer to 07 and 08 LeBron than 2012 LeBron defensively.
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,866
And1: 16,409
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#63 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Jul 4, 2019 3:01 pm

It was impossible to defend Lebron in 2017 because of the spacing. Not convinced he was really better offensively than his best Heat years. I understand the argument for a 2016 vote since he was major on defense in the playoffs as well and beating Warriors is his arguable best accomplishment.
Liberate The Zoomers
Homer38
RealGM
Posts: 12,170
And1: 13,700
Joined: Dec 04, 2013

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#64 » by Homer38 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 3:11 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:It was impossible to defend Lebron in 2017 because of the spacing. Not convinced he was really better offensively than his best Heat years. I understand the argument for a 2016 vote since he was major on defense in the playoffs as well and beating Warriors is his arguable best accomplishment.


Maybe but the other reason that it was impossible to defend LeBron is that he was amazing in 3 points(41% in the 3 point line and his volume was good).
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,858
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#65 » by Colbinii » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:26 pm

Are we really using 150 minutes and an extremely noise on/off to paint LeBron was a worse defender in 2013 than 2012?

LeBron had by far the worst off-court defensive rating on the team [96.1] while every player aside from LeBron was around 103/104 off court [Dwyane Wade at 100 off court].

Seems fishy considering no player on court sniffed a sub 100 on-court defensive rating yet LeBrons off is 96.1.

Considering Lebron played 20% more minutes than the next more played player it is definitely a sign of error.

In fact, looking at the number of 20%, has there ever been a champion who played 20% more minutes than his #2 option? That's incredible by itself.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,858
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#66 » by Colbinii » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:27 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:It was impossible to defend Lebron in 2017 because of the spacing. Not convinced he was really better offensively than his best Heat years. I understand the argument for a 2016 vote since he was major on defense in the playoffs as well and beating Warriors is his arguable best accomplishment.


LeBron was tremendous in 2017 on defense as well.

His supporting cast was the worst defensive supporting cast to ever make a finals.
Homer38
RealGM
Posts: 12,170
And1: 13,700
Joined: Dec 04, 2013

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#67 » by Homer38 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:33 pm

Colbinii wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:It was impossible to defend Lebron in 2017 because of the spacing. Not convinced he was really better offensively than his best Heat years. I understand the argument for a 2016 vote since he was major on defense in the playoffs as well and beating Warriors is his arguable best accomplishment.


LeBron was tremendous in 2017 on defense as well.

His supporting cast was the worst defensive supporting cast to ever make a finals.


The year after,it was even worse!
JoeMalburg
Pro Prospect
Posts: 885
And1: 520
Joined: May 23, 2015
     

Democracy in Action! 

Post#68 » by JoeMalburg » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:41 pm

For now I'm just going to restate my case for the top three that I made in round one.

First Vote: Wilt 1967
-Quite possibly the perfect season. Chamberlain never found as good a balance between scoring and play-making on offense nor was he ever as engaged defensively during his physical peak. The stat-line he produced will never, ever be equaled. 24 points per game on 68% shooting while leading the league in rebounding and finishing third in assists per game. He had 22 triple-doubles in the regular season and seven more in 15 playoff games. He had a high scoring game of 58 points and his top performance on the boards produced 38 caroms. The 76ers cruised to the title, posting double digit margins of victory in 9 of 11 playoff wins. Against Russell in the EDF, Wilt was at his best posting an insane 22-32-10 stat-line in a five game sweep against eight-time defending Champion Boston. This version of Wilt and his 76ers was the only one to knock a Celtics team with a healthy Bill Russell out of the playoffs in his 13-year career.

Second Vote: LeBron 2013
-LeBron at the peak of his combined mental and physical powers. At times during the regular season it appeared that he and the defending Champs were just toying with the competition. His efficiency on offense was absolutely bonkers, between January 12 and February 21 of that season, James had an 18 game stretch where he averaged 30-8-7-2-1 on 62/43/80 shooting over the last month of the season he shot 69% form the field and 57% from three. Consistency was the hallmark of this season for LeBron. He only scored 40 points once all year and was under 20 just five times. What makes it even more impressive is that the team around him was largely running on fumes by the end of the year as six of the Heat's ten playoff rotation players were 31 or older. Down 2-1 to the Spurs in the Finals, James averaged 32-10-7-3-1 in the final four games of the Finals to help Miami survive and defend their title.

Third Vote: Shaq 2000
-Shaq was completely unstoppable throughout the 1999-00 season. The Big Aristotle led the league in scoring and FG% and played the best defense of his career while finishing second in rebounding and third in blocked shots. He had thirteen 20/20 games, eight 30/20 games and one incredible night where he scored 61 points on 35 shots and pulled down 23 rebounds. It bears mentioning that none of the players being considered here had as little help around them either. Kobe was just ascending towards elite status, Glen Rice was a shell of his prime self and was even benched late in a Finals game and the rest of the cast were role players and cast-offs. Still, the Lakers won 67 games and the Championship. O'Neal was especially dominant in the opening game of each playoff series where he averaged 42 points. In the Finals, Shaq was at his most dominant as he put together one of the all-time great performances averaging 38 points on 61% shooting along with 17 rebounds and 3 blocks book-ending the series with 40-point games in Laker wins.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,858
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#69 » by Colbinii » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:41 pm

Homer38 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:It was impossible to defend Lebron in 2017 because of the spacing. Not convinced he was really better offensively than his best Heat years. I understand the argument for a 2016 vote since he was major on defense in the playoffs as well and beating Warriors is his arguable best accomplishment.


LeBron was tremendous in 2017 on defense as well.

His supporting cast was the worst defensive supporting cast to ever make a finals.


The year after,it was even worse!


Nah, George Hill and Jeff Green were big upgrades on the defensive side of the ball.
Timmyyy
Junior
Posts: 372
And1: 375
Joined: May 21, 2019
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#70 » by Timmyyy » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:52 pm

LA Bird wrote:2017 LeBron shouldn't be grouped with 2018 as a zero defense season. He was just below +2 DRAPM/DRPM and put up elite man defense numbers in the playoffs before he got destroyed by Golden State in the Finals. OTOH, 2018 LeBron was a negative on defense for the entire season. I would say LeBron's 2017 defense was much closer to his 2013 level despite 13 being often touted as one of LeBron's best defensive seasons. LeBron not picking up All D selections in 16/17 coupled with his trash defense in 18 has unfortunately distorted many people's memories of his defense during the 2nd Cavs run. It is blatantly false but "LeBron left his defense in Miami" is actually a common opinion held by the majority outside of this board.

BTW, I found this post from just before the 2017 Finals to show LeBron's defense was thought of pretty highly at the time:

SideshowBob wrote:His defense vs. the Eastern Confrence has been better than last season. Sustained off ball activity level in some of these games given his offensive load. I kept losing count of how many times he blew up movement towards the lane.

I think he's slipped a bit in 1on1 since 09/10/11 but his help game might be peaking - motor is better these days than like 2013 and IQ/awareness/experience are at an all time high.


Absolutely agree on Lebron 2017 defense.I think it is a solid step below 09, 10, 12 and 16 but pretty much follows after these (I already made a post why I think 13 is overrated on D). I would say it was a little average for him in the RS but that is still a solid positive (was quite good in the PO's too).
His offense was the best it's ever been, that I agree with. But I think the offensive gap and the defensive one are pretty comparable between 17 and 16, 12, 09 and personally overall I go with the other three, but if I had 4 votes 2017 Lebron would be 4th (and I actually have no problem seeing him 1.-3.).

Lebron 2018 on the other hand half assed it nearly half the season overall, half assed it on defense all year including the playoffs and with his attitude regarding his team situation also had a negative impact. When he turned it on his offense was 2017 level but that's all. You have a guy that was negative on defense all year. A guy that completely didn't care for half the RS (his RS impact looked pretty bad for his standards). Saying that this is near peak Lebron is in my opinion an insult to his other seasons. You completely have to ignore defense to say that and even then I can't see the case because of his inconsistency in the RS.
His playoff OFFENSE might be his best or second best ever. That is the only superlative I have for him. Best playoffs? No, too bad defensively. Best RS? I would even say one of his worst in his prime.
Nonetheless he was the best player last season because the competition wasn't all that tough. But I take a fully healthy Curry in front of him last season because of said reasons.

That is coming from a guy that voted for 3 of his seasons in the first thread of this project.
Bel
Sophomore
Posts: 246
And1: 533
Joined: Jan 24, 2019
 

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#71 » by Bel » Thu Jul 4, 2019 4:52 pm

This 2017/18 talk doesn’t make any sense to me. Lebron in 2012 dwarfed his competition and won handily, admittedly with a stacked team. Nobody was close. In 2009 he did as well, aside from Wade, but he also lost to a Dwight Howard team missing its second best player with the same team that took the Celtics to 7 and had a positive PD, despite several awful Lebron games. That’s a whole different story, but in 2017 the Cavs looked worse against the Warriors than the Kawhi Spurs (admittedly a very small sample) despite a huge talent edge. Nor did Lebron dwarf the competition: Curry, KD, Westbrook, Kawhi, and CP3 all posted fantastic numbers as well, for very obvious reasons. (And 2017 eastern conference numbers are irrelevant because of how terrible those teams were.)

Personally I think Lebron with a chip on his shoulder out to prove himself is the best Lebron, so even though he lacked the offball skills in 2012 that he would show the next two years, he was mentally in the right place and just dominated. You put that Lebron in a situation where he can only be guarded by one guy who can’t cut off his angles without fouling, gets switched onto their weakest defender, and nobody near the paint, and he drops 40 with ease.

Imagine if Shaq in 2000 was only guarded by 1 small dude in a mismatch instead of having 3 Blazer bigs draped over him, and they couldn’t touch him or impede his movement. Compared to his historical stats, he’d probably get a 20% or more boost depending on how much he demanded the ball. Would he be the goat then? Same exact player, just a much easier environment. If putting up fancy looking stats with no context and losing to a great team is the only qualifier, then we should be picking Jerry West in the top 5 as well. And why would lebrons losing years be over say 62 Wilt in that case?

On a meta level, the feedback loop on Lebron is fascinating: he is simultaneously the most scrutinized and excused player in history. I think these two opposites feed off the other one and react with either more intense scrutiny that nobody else gets or more excuses that nobody else gets.
User avatar
E-Balla
RealGM
Posts: 35,822
And1: 25,116
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
Location: The Poster Formerly Known As The Gotham City Pantalones
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#72 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 4, 2019 5:03 pm

Colbinii wrote:Are we really using 150 minutes and an extremely noise on/off to paint LeBron was a worse defender in 2013 than 2012?

LeBron had by far the worst off-court defensive rating on the team [96.1] while every player aside from LeBron was around 103/104 off court [Dwyane Wade at 100 off court].

Seems fishy considering no player on court sniffed a sub 100 on-court defensive rating yet LeBrons off is 96.1.

Considering Lebron played 20% more minutes than the next more played player it is definitely a sign of error.

In fact, looking at the number of 20%, has there ever been a champion who played 20% more minutes than his #2 option? That's incredible by itself.

Are we really ignoring LeBron also had the worst ON COURT defensive rating on the team?

That and the fact that not a single number known to man paints the picture LeBron played better defense or even similar defense in 2013?

And to that last question I'm sure there's tons of guys, off top I haven't looked but I'd think Hakeem, Duncan, and Rick Barry fit the criteria.
Timmyyy
Junior
Posts: 372
And1: 375
Joined: May 21, 2019
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#73 » by Timmyyy » Thu Jul 4, 2019 5:09 pm

Colbinii wrote:Are we really using 150 minutes and an extremely noise on/off to paint LeBron was a worse defender in 2013 than 2012?

LeBron had by far the worst off-court defensive rating on the team [96.1] while every player aside from LeBron was around 103/104 off court [Dwyane Wade at 100 off court].

Seems fishy considering no player on court sniffed a sub 100 on-court defensive rating yet LeBrons off is 96.1.

Considering Lebron played 20% more minutes than the next more played player it is definitely a sign of error.

In fact, looking at the number of 20%, has there ever been a champion who played 20% more minutes than his #2 option? That's incredible by itself.


There are way more hints to 12 being better on D than 13 than the other way around. In case you didn't read my post about it, have a look at post #19 in this thread. The on/off is a weaker argument in my opinion but that doesn't mean there aren't better ones. :wink:
User avatar
Odinn21
Analyst
Posts: 3,514
And1: 2,942
Joined: May 19, 2019
 

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#74 » by Odinn21 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 5:15 pm

Barry played 44.3% more mins than Wilkes in 1975 playoffs.
Duncan played 25.4% more mins than Parker in 2003 playoffs.
LeBron played 22.8% more mins than Wade in 2013 playoffs.
Hakeem played 12.4% more mins than Maxwell in 1994 playoffs.

That is an interesting criteria and it doesn't favour LeBron.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
User avatar
E-Balla
RealGM
Posts: 35,822
And1: 25,116
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
Location: The Poster Formerly Known As The Gotham City Pantalones
   

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#75 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 4, 2019 5:18 pm

The argument for LeBron in the 2013 postseason is that he played like a DPOY. His team defense was good, but not great. His on court DRTG was actually pretty middling. It was also the worst on the team so it's not like he was being dragged down at all. His blocks, steals, and rebounds weren't particularly great for LeBron. He doesn't have any moments where he locked someone down. What is the argument that LeBron played like a DPOY in the 2013 playoffs?
HHera187
Freshman
Posts: 75
And1: 17
Joined: Jan 21, 2019
       

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#76 » by HHera187 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 5:19 pm

N.1: LeBron James 2009
His best season, I'm surprised for all these '13 votes. LeBron played unparalleled defense (literally 1-5) while he was taking charge of all the offensive Load. Only one stat: 18.2 BPM in postseason, not of this world.
N.2 LeBron James 2013
Probably the most balanced season of his career, he was still a strong defensive factor and an all time offensive player despite bad spacing.
N.3 Shaquille O'Neal 2000
The best offensive season of all time for a Big, Jackson triangle pin: he was the system. His defense was good as prime Mourning.


Sent from my CLT-L09 using RealGM mobile app
Gibson22
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,921
And1: 912
Joined: Jun 23, 2016
 

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#77 » by Gibson22 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 7:42 pm

1) Lebron James 2013
A special season, probably the perfect season, the only time that I can think where a player mantained an all time offensive/defensive production without the need to go all out until it was needed and without putting his guys off rhytym, plus his whole team, and especially d-wade, was a bad fit for that version of him. He struggled with his shot in the playoffs, but I think that Lebron's defense was the single most important part of that team's success. Historic game 7 against the Spurs

2) Lebron James 2009. To me, the real goat version of a basketball player, but he didn't reach the finals (not his fault obv but you have to count the fewer games that he played in PS) and I think his game wasn't as expandable as it would be in the future (until 2018 really), plus I think his mental game wasn't at his peak, even he said that his miami days were like college for other people, as a human being but as a bball player too. 2009 lebron to me was easily his best version as a man defender, and probably the only one year he had as a GOAT man defender.

3) Wilt 1967. Basically another perfect season (goat level defense, perfect balance between scoring and passing, ungodly statline, dismantling teams on his way to the ring) but I always think that when we do these projects people throw everything out of the way and overrate the offensive value of GOAT bigs. I vote for this one because I have this season as a better offensive season than shaq 2000 with considerably better defense, but I don't have these two as GOAT level offensive seasons
Gibson22
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,921
And1: 912
Joined: Jun 23, 2016
 

Re: Peaks project update: #2 

Post#78 » by Gibson22 » Thu Jul 4, 2019 7:43 pm

Oh well, I'm not shutting this down, it'll remain open tomorrow since there still is discussion, but guys, it's time to vote
JoeMalburg
Pro Prospect
Posts: 885
And1: 520
Joined: May 23, 2015
     

LeBron vs. King James 

Post#79 » by JoeMalburg » Thu Jul 4, 2019 8:33 pm

Good discussion emerging around LeBron James' peak season as he seems to be the majority choice for #2 peak. I wanted to weigh in even though he is my second choice behind Wilt Chamberlain at this point. I have a bit of a different take than most in terms of the way I approach the question. I don't really think using statistical arguments is particularly relevant here. I think the numbers from any of the seasons being discussed gives plenty of reason for why you'd have LeBron second, but when it comes to discerning between various versions of James at his best, I think there is very little difference between how good LeBron was in 2009 vs. 2010, 2012 vs. 2013 or 2016 vs. 2017. The statistical variance is much more dependent on extenuating circumstances than any appreciable change in the level of player James was.

Here's how I see it. You're picking your preferred version of LeBron during his peak decade, 2009-2018.(Let's think about that quickly, "peak decade". Who else has one of those? Kareem and Karl Malone, maybe. I think that's it.) We can rule out 2011 and 2014 for sure. 2015 probably doesn't make the cut either. 2018 is a long shot it seems like. So it comes down to six seasons, or more simply, three sets of consecutive seasons:

2009 and 2010, with 2009 seeming like the heavily preferred choice.

2012 and 2013, with 2013 having the small but clear edge.

2016 and 2017, with 2016 seeming like the better choice because of the ring.

I think from there you have to look at the tangible differences, transportable to any hypothetical season between those versions of LeBron regardless of optimal or mitigating factors that emerged during those actual seasons. A couple of examples...

2009 LeBron has the greatest level of energy and athletic ability and least amount of wear and tear on his body. His physical advantage over the competition rivals that of WIlt and Shaq, but his overall skill level is probably the lowest of the three versions. He also has the least experience and the most to prove, which can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on your perspective. He is dominant from start to finish in the regular season, giving maximum effort on both ends all the time. There is little difference between regular season and playoff Lebron with this version.

2016 LeBron is a veteran who can dominate the game with far less energy than 2009 version, the most experienced, proven and confident version here. His skill level and basketball IQ peak here, but physically he's got a ton of miles on him and while still an elite athlete, he's clearly not at his peak. This LeBron has the largest regular to postseason chasm. You're going to see him coast, especially on defense during the regular season and he may not have the ability to fully turn it on defensively like he could in the 2009 or 2013 version.

2013 LeBron, chronologically and comparatively is a version in between the other two. He is still an elite athlete, might even still be at or very near his peak, but he doesn't have it turned up to eleven at all times. He's a better shooter and more efficient offensive player than 2009 LeBron and a more engaged and impactful defender than 2016 Lebron. This LeBron doesn't coast all the time, but clearly picks his spots and is more interested in being efficient and consistent than he is in winning every single possession of every single game.

We can compare these versions by the numbers, which I think ignores a lot of things we can say with certainty were factors, or we can take each version of LeBron and try to transport him into hypothetical situations that commonly occur and decide based on those more intangible distinctions which version we prefer to try and win a title with.

For me it's...

2013
2009
2016

But I'm fine with any one of them finishing 1st-5th in this project.
User avatar
E-Balla
RealGM
Posts: 35,822
And1: 25,116
Joined: Dec 19, 2012
Location: The Poster Formerly Known As The Gotham City Pantalones
   

Re: LeBron vs. King James 

Post#80 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 4, 2019 9:10 pm

This is a good post I wanna scrutinize a bit because there's a few assumptions made for reasons I don't get.

JoeMalburg wrote:Good discussion emerging around LeBron James' peak season as he seems to be the majority choice for #2 peak. I wanted to weigh in even though he is my second choice behind Wilt Chamberlain at this point. I have a bit of a different take than most in terms of the way I approach the question. I don't really think using statistical arguments is particularly relevant here. I think the numbers from any of the seasons being discussed gives plenty of reason for why you'd have LeBron second, but when it comes to discerning between various versions of James at his best, I think there is very little difference between how good LeBron was in 2009 vs. 2010, 2012 vs. 2013 or 2016 vs. 2017. The statistical variance is much more dependent on extenuating circumstances than any appreciable change in the level of player James was.

This being the biggest one. Maybe 16 vs 17 that's accurate, but for 09 vs 10 there's a clear gap, 2009 LeBron gave it all at all times. 2010 LeBron gave up on his team (which packed talent just as much as the 09 Cavs) in a playoff series.

Here's how I see it. You're picking your preferred version of LeBron during his peak decade, 2009-2018.(Let's think about that quickly, "peak decade". Who else has one of those? Kareem and Karl Malone, maybe. I think that's it.) We can rule out 2011 and 2014 for sure. 2015 probably doesn't make the cut either. 2018 is a long shot it seems like. So it comes down to six seasons, or more simply, three sets of consecutive seasons:

2009 and 2010, with 2009 seeming like the heavily preferred choice.

2012 and 2013, with 2013 having the small but clear edge.

So we go again, can anyone arguing 2013 over 2012 explain how LeBron had a better season without ignoring the entirety of the playoffs? Remember this whole discussion started because someone was confused on why anyone would possibly pick 2013 and I responded to that post with a long drawn out case against LeBron in 2013. I have still got zero responses that do anything besides state things that spots in the face of all evidence.

2016 and 2017, with 2016 seeming like the better choice because of the ring.

I think from there you have to look at the tangible differences, transportable to any hypothetical season between those versions of LeBron regardless of optimal or mitigating factors that emerged during those actual seasons. A couple of examples...

2009 LeBron has the greatest level of energy and athletic ability and least amount of wear and tear on his body. His physical advantage over the competition rivals that of WIlt and Shaq, but his overall skill level is probably the lowest of the three versions. He also has the least experience and the most to prove, which can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on your perspective. He is dominant from start to finish in the regular season, giving maximum effort on both ends all the time. There is little difference between regular season and playoff Lebron with this version.

He was 24 years old and beloved he had nothing to prove. 2011 LeBron is the version with the most to prove. 2012 is the year he had the most to prove outside of that. Picture this:

2007: 22 years old. Gets to the Finals. Hype off the walls.
2008: 23 years old. Closely contests the champions. First time people started thinking he might be the best in the league.
2009: 24 years old. Clearly the best player in the league and has one of the best seasons ever leading mincemeat and defensive role players to 66 wins.
2010: 25 years old, repeat MVP. Gives up on his team in the playoffs. Takes heavy criticism for it.
2011. 26 years old. After giving up on Cleveland he shakes the world up by going to Miami. The narrative is always that he can't win, now he has no excuses and people are pitching Miami reaching 70 wins. They make the Finals. His former Finals MVP teammate plays out of his mind. He has the worst finals a superstar has ever had.
2012: Clearly the villain of the league. He lost last year with the most stacked team ever to lose all off his bad play. If he can't win it now, after 2 years with one of the most stacked teams ever he's a failure.

There's a clear crescendo up to 2011 in terms of expectations and narratives of what LeBron needed to do to prove himself as a potential GOAT level player. He lost that year, but you could argue that elevated what he had to prove in 2012.

2016 LeBron is a veteran who can dominate the game with far less energy than 2009 version, the most experienced, proven and confident version here. His skill level and basketball IQ peak here, but physically he's got a ton of miles on him and while still an elite athlete, he's clearly not at his peak. This LeBron has the largest regular to postseason chasm. You're going to see him coast, especially on defense during the regular season and he may not have the ability to fully turn it on defensively like he could in the 2009 or 2013 version.

2013 LeBron, chronologically and comparatively is a version in between the other two. He is still an elite athlete, might even still be at or very near his peak, but he doesn't have it turned up to eleven at all times. He's a better shooter and more efficient offensive player than 2009 LeBron and a more engaged and impactful defender than 2016 Lebron. This LeBron doesn't coast all the time, but clearly picks his spots and is more interested in being efficient and consistent than he is in winning every single possession of every single game.

We can compare these versions by the numbers, which I think ignores a lot of things we can say with certainty were factors, or we can take each version of LeBron and try to transport him into hypothetical situations that commonly occur and decide based on those more intangible distinctions which version we prefer to try and win a title with.

For me it's...

2013
2009
2016

But I'm fine with any one of them finishing 1st-5th in this project.

I think the main issue here is people are clearly forgetting how keyed in LeBron was in the 2012 playoffs. That was the face of a player that wouldn't lose. We didn't get that drive or effort in 2013 at all.

Return to Player Comparisons