Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 II: BIG as F

[NotACat]

I hate the offseason

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Same here. I think I'm going to take a break from this place and just come back in October for pre-season unless something major happens.

[Audi]

I hate the offseason

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Same here. I think I'm going to take a break from this place and just come back in October for pre-season unless something major happens.

..meh. I'll take all of it over this place being a ghost town.

[Magic_Johnny12]

If you can get Lonnie Walker for that, I would. The Jrue and McCollum trades would be very, very horrible.

Horrible for who?

The Lonnie Walker trade makes complete sense and reminds me of the JJ for Harris trade. Trading things we don't really need (Birch) or value much (SRPs) for a guy we could shape and mold into a player for our system. I legitimately think if Lonnie Walker was on our team, he would compete and maybe even beat Evan for the starting SG role in the next 2 years (assuming we were to keep Evan long term). Guy is young and does a lot of the right things and Pop seems to love him.

What I don't understand is trading for Jrue Holiday, who's efficiency and stats are nearly identical to DJ's, but he shoots literally 10 percentage points worse from 3 (Jrue 32.% vs DJ 42.1%), and CJ McCollum, who gets nearly the same amount of points per FGA that AG does and you are trading them, but does literally nothing on the defensive end that AG does. Not to mention you are sacrificing the chemistry and cohesiveness that our front office just spent all free agency talking about being the important thing this off season and blowing up both our depth and future for two guys who are not even close to bringing us a championship.

So defense means nothing to you? Got it.

[ezzzp]

Now that the Sixers has three Max players, we can see where "The Process" led to. Apparently it includes paying 10 guys the min to be able to set a roster.

Hinkie didn't die for Colangelo and Brand to misuse the trove of assets he acquired.

Quoted to emphasize the truth. Hinkie, who acquired the stars, was forced out by the nba and replaced by an idiot who trash talked amd attacked his own players on social media

Then, that guy was replaced by a new GM who has no idea what he’s doing and basically traded all of Hinkie’s assets for overpriced surrounding pieces to the stars Hinkie drafted.

Don’t play dumb. ‘The process’ was terminated by the NBA before the plan could be fully realized.

It’s the equivalent of developing a new controversial surgical procedure to cure a disease and then getting fired half way through the first trial surgery, being replaced by two incompetent doctors that do not follow your procedure and butcher the job. Is it fair to blame the original doctor for his ‘failed idea’?

We’ll never know if Hinkie would have stayed put, drafted Tatum, then used the pick Colangelo traded for Fultz on another quality player. The truth is, the process was shut down before it had a chance to be fully realized.

Hinkie never showed ANY signs of being able to construct a team, much less a winning product.

Bottoming out, cashing out any remotely decent player for picks, and then firing buckshot at the draft was the easy part. It doesn't take any skill to lose-on-purpose and trade away everything for any pick available.

In reality, he wasted most of those picks and he lost most player-for-player trades.

Even the two draft picks that salvaged what was a disaster, Embiid (health) and Simmons (shooting), both have major flaws that thus far have been key problems in the playoffs.

Embiid's health in particular is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off at any moment. His back, knee and feet problems didn't just miraculously disappear - they have just been "managed." Would you bet your house that over his max contract (next 4 years) as he gets older and the minutes start to add up that's going to hold? I definitely would not.

[Blue_and_Whte]

This is the time of year I go back and look st old spec threads and it usually doesn’t disappoint.
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1774898&start=1320

[Ducklett]

Horrible for who?

The Lonnie Walker trade makes complete sense and reminds me of the JJ for Harris trade. Trading things we don't really need (Birch) or value much (SRPs) for a guy we could shape and mold into a player for our system. I legitimately think if Lonnie Walker was on our team, he would compete and maybe even beat Evan for the starting SG role in the next 2 years (assuming we were to keep Evan long term). Guy is young and does a lot of the right things and Pop seems to love him.

What I don't understand is trading for Jrue Holiday, who's efficiency and stats are nearly identical to DJ's, but he shoots literally 10 percentage points worse from 3 (Jrue 32.% vs DJ 42.1%), and CJ McCollum, who gets nearly the same amount of points per FGA that AG does and you are trading them, but does literally nothing on the defensive end that AG does. Not to mention you are sacrificing the chemistry and cohesiveness that our front office just spent all free agency talking about being the important thing this off season and blowing up both our depth and future for two guys who are not even close to bringing us a championship.

So defense means nothing to you? Got it.

We were a top 10 defensive team last year. We have defensive specialists all over our roster, including one at PG. I think if you were to poll the board, you would find that everyone thinks we need more shooting. Why would you bring it a guy that barely shoots the 3 better than Elfrid in at the position where 3 point shooting is literally critical.

[ezzzp]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

• FiveThirtyEight's ELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Toronto / 58-24 / 99%
2 Milwaukee / 55-27 / 97%
3 Philadelphia / 49-33 / 88%
4 Boston / 49-33 / 88%
5 Orlando / 45-37 / 76%
6 Indiana / 42-40 / 64%
7 Miami / 41-41 / 58%
8 Brooklyn / 40-42 / 56%


• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

[ezzzp]

Read on Twitter

[SOUL]

Read on Twitter

Not a real account, I don't think. Or at least anybody credible.

[cedric76]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

• FiveThirtyEight's ELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Toronto / 58-24 / 99%
2 Milwaukee / 55-27 / 97%
3 Philadelphia / 49-33 / 88%
4 Boston / 49-33 / 88%
5 Orlando / [b]45-36 / 76%[/b]
6 Indiana / 42-40 / 64%
7 Miami / 41-41 / 58%
8 Brooklyn / 40-42 / 56%


• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Only playing 81 games next seasons, nice

[drsd]

• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

[Tarheel]

• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

Also interesting that only Vuc and AG are positives on both ends of the floor.

[pepe1991]

• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

Also interesting that only Vuc and AG are positives on both ends of the floor.

And that's no suprise at all

[Tarheel]

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

Also interesting that only Vuc and AG are positives on both ends of the floor.

And that's no suprise at all

I was a little surprised that T-Ross wasn't a plus defender, but that was about it

[pepe1991]

Also interesting that only Vuc and AG are positives on both ends of the floor.

And that's no suprise at all

I was a little surprised that T-Ross wasn't a plus defender, but that was about it

Most guards come off as negative defenders in defensive metrics because they are "fall" guys for all perimeter shots, and today teams shoot 3s all the time.
it's more suprising when you see bigs who are negative defenders. Takes extra sucking to get there.

[D J C]

• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

Interesting that we're projected at 42 wins assuming that Vucevic falls from a +2.6 on offense to +.7, Jonathan Isaac somehow gets worse on offense, Aminu goes from a +.5 on offense last year to a -.5 on offense, Ross falls back down to earth on offense, Fournier has an even worse year than his 'off year'... so pretty much this is a worst case scenario (given everyone stays healthy).

Curious to see what the model would show if Isaac made the leap to a net positive offensive player, Vucevic continued his All Star play, Evan bounced back, and/or the bench improved from last year. Probably good for a few more wins and in the range Toronto is projected at?

[Blue_and_Whte]

• FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO 2020 Projection:

Team / Projected Record / Chance of Playoffs

1 Philadelphia / 59-23 /99%
2 Milwaukee / 54-28 / 99%
3 Boston / 46-36 / 91%
4 Toronto / 45-37 / 89%
5 Miami / 44-38 / 86%
6 Orlando / 42-40 / 76%
7 Indiana / 39-43 / 64%
8 Brooklyn / 38-44 / 56%

Interesting looking at the team link:
CARMELO LINK for Magic



Notably this:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Note that Vučević is projected to be Orlando's best defensive player by this statistical model, by a long way !

..

Interesting that we're projected at 42 wins assuming that Vucevic falls from a +2.6 on offense to +.7, Jonathan Isaac somehow gets worse on offense, Aminu goes from a +.5 on offense last year to a -.5 on offense, Ross falls back down to earth on offense, Fournier has an even worse year than his 'off year'... so pretty much this is a worst case scenario (given everyone stays healthy).

Curious to see what the model would show if Isaac made the leap to a net positive offensive player, Vucevic continued his All Star play, Evan bounced back, and/or the bench improved from last year. Probably good for a few more wins and in the range Toronto is projected at?

Imo in the end it’ll be
Orlando
Miami
Toronto

[Xatticus]

And that's no suprise at all

I was a little surprised that T-Ross wasn't a plus defender, but that was about it

Most guards come off as negative defenders in defensive metrics because they are "fall" guys for all perimeter shots, and today teams shoot 3s all the time.
it's more suprising when you see bigs who are negative defenders. Takes extra sucking to get there.

And it's pretty much impossible to have a poor rating by any of these defensive composites if you have relatively high rebound or block percentages. We know that you can be a terrible defender and a good rebounder or shot blocker, but the composites will tell you otherwise because they just don't have much else to work with. This is why someone like Bamba can grade out positively as a defender, even though he was miserable at that end in his rookie season.

[pepe1991]

I was a little surprised that T-Ross wasn't a plus defender, but that was about it

Most guards come off as negative defenders in defensive metrics because they are "fall" guys for all perimeter shots, and today teams shoot 3s all the time.
it's more suprising when you see bigs who are negative defenders. Takes extra sucking to get there.

And it's pretty much impossible to have a poor rating by any of these defensive composites if you have relatively high rebound or block percentages. We know that you can be a terrible defender and a good rebounder or shot blocker, but the composites will tell you otherwise because they just don't have much else to work with. This is why someone like Bamba can grade out positively as a defender, even though he was miserable at that end in his rookie season.

Indeed.
I always use late years of Marcus Camby as overrated defense.
Guy was elite blocker, but his defense more often than not was him leaving his man wide open to overplay weak side to close down on slashing guard. If guard passes to his man, his man will have open dunk, but if not, he'll get block or rebound.

Ibaka used to do that a lot as well. But before decline he was able to defend on switch, but much like it's case with lot of bigs, his athletic prime was early and he declined after age of 25

[ezzzp]

Only playing 81 games next seasons, nice

its my typo ... 45-37 is what it should have said