We have enough of a Tatum sample now

[Feed Your Head]

Tatum has been, without a doubt, the most impactful player on the team this season. To be that already as a teenager is nothing short of amazing.

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Was watching the game last night and it was obvious that Tatum is far and away our best player. The team just falls off a cliff when he’s out.

I said a week ago or so in a GT that I think he's probably become a top 15ish player, and he's done nothing to make me think otherwise since. Now he's definitely on the bottom of the top 15, but considering he doesn't turn 22 for a couple of months, it's pretty damn exciting. He's making the jump we were all hoping for, and i love that Kemba is pushing him to get better every night.

[sam_I_am]

Tatum has been, without a doubt, the most impactful player on the team this season. To be that already as a teenager is nothing short of amazing.

Read on Twitter

Was watching the game last night and it was obvious that Tatum is far and away our best player. The team just falls off a cliff when he’s out.

When it’s Tatum and 4 bench players it works. When Brad has tried to have Gordon or Brown lead that group it can be disasterous. The only thing about Tatum that I don’t love is that he is a finesse scorer but that is also why he and Brown compliment each other so well.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Tatum has been, without a doubt, the most impactful player on the team this season. To be that already as a teenager is nothing short of amazing.

Read on Twitter

Was watching the game last night and it was obvious that Tatum is far and away our best player. The team just falls off a cliff when he’s out.

When it’s Tatum and 4 bench players it works. When Brad has tried to have Gordon or Brown lead that group it can be disasterous. The only thing about Tatum that I don’t love is that he is a finesse scorer but that is also why he and Brown compliment each other so well.

Just gotta give him time to grow in this role. He’s been at 22-7-3 on 56% TS since the middle of November and has clearly began to progress on the offensive end.

He’s never had this usage above HS before— he was the third option on Duke and, save for the playoff run, only a 2/3 option here. He needs to get used to countering defenses and figuring out how to score reliantly. Its semi-frustrating because other year 3 players have taken the leap sooner [Donovan Mitchell], but he just needs experience as the top option before he can better grow into the role.

I’m confident that he’ll be a 58%+ TS player come the start of his next contract. Its going to fully click for him soon.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Tatum has been, without a doubt, the most impactful player on the team this season. To be that already as a teenager is nothing short of amazing.

Read on Twitter

Was watching the game last night and it was obvious that Tatum is far and away our best player. The team just falls off a cliff when he’s out.

I said a week ago or so in a GT that I think he's probably become a top 15ish player, and he's done nothing to make me think otherwise since. Now he's definitely on the bottom of the top 15, but considering he doesn't turn 22 for a couple of months, it's pretty damn exciting. He's making the jump we were all hoping for, and i love that Kemba is pushing him to get better every night.

Yah, I think that's fair. I personally have him similar to Siakam, who barely averages more counting stats at virtually the same efficiency while playing slightly worse defense.

[Feed Your Head]

Was watching the game last night and it was obvious that Tatum is far and away our best player. The team just falls off a cliff when he’s out.

I said a week ago or so in a GT that I think he's probably become a top 15ish player, and he's done nothing to make me think otherwise since. Now he's definitely on the bottom of the top 15, but considering he doesn't turn 22 for a couple of months, it's pretty damn exciting. He's making the jump we were all hoping for, and i love that Kemba is pushing him to get better every night.

Yah, I think that's fair. I personally have him similar to Siakam, who barely averages more counting stats at virtually the same efficiency while playing slightly worse defense.

Where he ranks is just a fun exercise, all i really care about is that he is making the leap. I think he's pretty clearly on track to be an elite two way player, which was the most important thing for this season, IMO.

5th in RPM/11th in PIPM and RAPTOR. Pretty impressive that he has stuck around up there as a high volume player. I know it's more about how you play in your role, but he has a huge role on this team lol.

[zoyathedestroya]

I like random stats, so sue me.

List of players in NBA history with 3,000+ pts, 1,000+ rebounds, 200+ steals, and 300+ three-pointers made in the first 200 games of their career:

• Paul Pierce
• Jayson Tatum

That's it. Tacko Fall could join them one day, but right now, that's the list.

EDIT: Jayson Tatum's 200th regular season game came against the Lakers recently and was 587 days younger than when Pierce played his 200th game (vs. Miami in April 2001).

[wco81]

Yeah but after his rookie year, there were many posters here saying Tatum was going to eclipse Pierce and be up there in the pantheon with the likes of Bird, Havlicek, etc.

Could still happen since it's so early in his career. But his trajectory hasn't been as steep as some people seemed to expect.

[zoyathedestroya]

Yeah but after his rookie year, there were many posters here saying Tatum was going to eclipse Pierce and be up there in the pantheon with the likes of Bird, Havlicek, etc.

Could still happen since it's so early in his career. But his trajectory hasn't been as steep as some people seemed to expect.

Different contexts and team composition.

It's only this season that Tatum is getting featured as a clear #1 or #2 on offense. Pierce was a top 2 option since his rookie year. Defensively, Tatum is already ahead of Pierce was when he was a third-year player.

Pierce also didn't appear in his 1st postseason until he was 24. Tatum already made the ECF as the team's postseason scoring leader as a 20-yo. So one can't help but get excited about his potential.

I personally don't think anyone would surpass Bird. Never really saw Hondo play.

[exculpatory]

I like random stats, so sue me.

List of players in NBA history with 3,000+ pts, 1,000+ rebounds, 200+ steals, and 300+ three-pointers made in the first 200 games of their career:

• Paul Pierce
• Jayson Tatum

That's it. Tacko Fall could join them one day, but right now, that's the list.

EDIT: Jayson Tatum's 200th regular season game came against the Lakers recently and was 587 days younger than when Pierce played his 200th game (vs. Miami in April 2001).

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

[cloverleaf]

I like random stats, so sue me.

List of players in NBA history with 3,000+ pts, 1,000+ rebounds, 200+ steals, and 300+ three-pointers made in the first 200 games of their career:

• Paul Pierce
• Jayson Tatum

That's it. Tacko Fall could join them one day, but right now, that's the list.

EDIT: Jayson Tatum's 200th regular season game came against the Lakers recently and was 587 days younger than when Pierce played his 200th game (vs. Miami in April 2001).

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

If you fairly count D he is likely just barely top 10 by the end of this season. The question would be whether he goes higher next year.

[Fencer reregistered]

I like random stats, so sue me.

List of players in NBA history with 3,000+ pts, 1,000+ rebounds, 200+ steals, and 300+ three-pointers made in the first 200 games of their career:

• Paul Pierce
• Jayson Tatum

That's it. Tacko Fall could join them one day, but right now, that's the list.

EDIT: Jayson Tatum's 200th regular season game came against the Lakers recently and was 587 days younger than when Pierce played his 200th game (vs. Miami in April 2001).

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

If you fairly count D he is likely just barely top 10 by the end of this season. The question would be whether he goes higher next year.

Which all-star starter frontcourt players do you think Tatum can pass by year end (injuries aside)? Siakam? Any non-starters ahead of him? How about Towns?

Which guards would you put him behind? Doncic and Harden, I presume. Dame as well? Any others?

As for next season, do you think any of the injured guys will come back ahead of him? (Curry and Durant would be the main candidates.) Any youngsters with a chance of overtaking him the way Doncic did? (It's probably too early to say about Zion.)

[SmartWentCrazy]

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

If you fairly count D he is likely just barely top 10 by the end of this season. The question would be whether he goes higher next year.

Which all-star starter frontcourt players do you think Tatum can pass by year end (injuries aside)? Siakam? Any non-starters ahead of him? How about Towns?

Which guards would you put him behind? Doncic and Harden, I presume. Dame as well? Any others?

Hes not far off Siakam right now. Per 36 theyre incredibly similar. Their TS% are incredibly close too.

[cloverleaf]

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

If you fairly count D he is likely just barely top 10 by the end of this season. The question would be whether he goes higher next year.

Which all-star starter frontcourt players do you think Tatum can pass by year end (injuries aside)? Siakam? Any non-starters ahead of him? How about Towns?

Which guards would you put him behind? Doncic and Harden, I presume. Dame as well? Any others?

As for next season, do you think any of the injured guys will come back ahead of him? (Curry and Durant would be the main candidates.) Any youngsters with a chance of overtaking him the way Doncic did? (It's probably too early to say about Zion.)

Truthfully, I put him ahead of Kemba and Young right now. He is more valuable than either of them. But "top 10" isn't based on AS starter slots, of course.

[Fencer reregistered]

But "top 10" isn't based on AS starter slots, of course.

Of course. Even so, AS slots can be used as a way to organize players for discussion.

One thing such organization highlights is that the top guys whose value is at both ends of the court are concentrated in the frontcourt positions. Guards are judged more on just their offense, although I should quickly follow that up with:
-- I view Jaylen as a frontcourt player a little more than as a guard. Most obviously, he plays next to two shorter guys a significant fraction of the time.
-- Yes, Lebron may be a PG this season. But for most of his career, that hasn't been true.
-- Marcus Smart is an exception to many rules.

[24istheLAW]

Hes not far off Siakam right now. Per 36 theyre incredibly similar. Their TS% are incredibly close too.

I've really come to admire Siakam's game. Smaller guy, powers through them. Bigger guy, attacks them with quickness. Battles for position like a maniac at both ends, runs the floor hard.

He's a great example for other players IMO. That you can be an All-Star AND help your team win if you play the game the right way.

[cloverleaf]

But "top 10" isn't based on AS starter slots, of course.

Of course. Even so, AS slots can be used as a way to organize players for discussion.

One thing such organization highlights is that the top guys whose value is at both ends of the court are concentrated in the frontcourt positions. Guards are judged more on just their offense, although I should quickly follow that up with:
-- I view Jaylen as a frontcourt player a little more than as a guard. Most obviously, he plays next to two shorter guys a significant fraction of the time.
-- Yes, Lebron may be a PG this season. But for most of his career, that hasn't been true.
-- Marcus Smart is an exception to many rules.

Yeah, JB inching more and more toward the SF role, which could work out well if Romeo really comes on next year.

Notably the League players ranked JB 13th among Eastern guards, which fits with striking on/off court differential between JB and JT at this time. JT at +12.7 per 100 possessions to JB's -3.4. That span is really notable when you consider how much the two play together as starters.

[sully00]

Yeah but after his rookie year, there were many posters here saying Tatum was going to eclipse Pierce and be up there in the pantheon with the likes of Bird, Havlicek, etc.

Could still happen since it's so early in his career. But his trajectory hasn't been as steep as some people seemed to expect.

I don't think you understand the Pantheon very well. Some of Boston's greatest players where not huge stat guys the Pantheon is not measured in points and rebounds it is measured in titles. Pierce had big numbers because his teammates sucked early in his career he didn't win more than half his games until his 4th season. Havlicek has huge numbers because he played forever but most of the early part of his career he came of the bench same for McHale.

What this Celtics team looks like is what most great Celtics teams look like. Depth and balance and tenacious home court advantage. Boston's success is rarely about one star dominating even when Bird was racking up MVPs it was because of his passing and unselfishness that made it happen, what made Bird the MVP was that McHale and Parish were candidates too.

In the end Championships are what matter but at this point the Celtics have never had a player like Tatum a guy so young who has been an instant contributor and a winner from the jump. The only other player comparable to Tatum as far as age and being a starter from Day 1 was Antoine Walker. The team was historically terrible and two seasons further away than Pierce from winning half their games.

Obviously the environment in Boston is as much about and Ainge and Stevens as it is Tatum, Brown and Walker. But Tatum and Brown had to go out there and do it and at least from a competitive standpoint they have. Now if they want to be in the rafters it is going to have to be a Championship (or 3 or 4).

[sam_I_am]

I like random stats, so sue me.

List of players in NBA history with 3,000+ pts, 1,000+ rebounds, 200+ steals, and 300+ three-pointers made in the first 200 games of their career:

• Paul Pierce
• Jayson Tatum

That's it. Tacko Fall could join them one day, but right now, that's the list.

EDIT: Jayson Tatum's 200th regular season game came against the Lakers recently and was 587 days younger than when Pierce played his 200th game (vs. Miami in April 2001).

TRUUUUUUTH

And, yes, JT is making the jump.

By the end of next season, maybe Top 5-10.

Awesome post Zoya! Might make that my new avatar!

[sam_I_am]

Yeah but after his rookie year, there were many posters here saying Tatum was going to eclipse Pierce and be up there in the pantheon with the likes of Bird, Havlicek, etc.

Could still happen since it's so early in his career. But his trajectory hasn't been as steep as some people seemed to expect.

I don't think you understand the Pantheon very well. Some of Boston's greatest players where not huge stat guys the Pantheon is not measured in points and rebounds it is measured in titles. Pierce had big numbers because his teammates sucked early in his career he didn't win more than half his games until his 4th season. Havlicek has huge numbers because he played forever but most of the early part of his career he came of the bench same for McHale.

What this Celtics team looks like is what most great Celtics teams look like. Depth and balance and tenacious home court advantage. Boston's success is rarely about one star dominating even when Bird was racking up MVPs it was because of his passing and unselfishness that made it happen, what made Bird the MVP was that McHale and Parish were candidates too.

In the end Championships are what matter but at this point the Celtics have never had a player like Tatum a guy so young who has been an instant contributor and a winner from the jump. The only other player comparable to Tatum as far as age and being a starter from Day 1 was Antoine Walker. The team was historically terrible and two seasons further away than Pierce from winning half their games.

Obviously the environment in Boston is as much about and Ainge and Stevens as it is Tatum, Brown and Walker. But Tatum and Brown had to go out there and do it and at least from a competitive standpoint they have. Now if they want to be in the rafters it is going to have to be a Championship (or 3 or 4).

Awesome post! This might be a hot take, but I’d like to take your point about Tatum’s immediate impact a step farther. When team lost Hayward and went on a 20 game winning streak Kyrie got the credit. When the team lost Kyrie and still managed to get to ECF it was Brad and the team that got the credit. This year after losing Horford and Kyrie, a lot of credit for success has rightfully gone to Walker’s leadership. But the one constant with all this winning has been Tatum. I believe that he is an enormous threat to score from everywhere that demands full attention from the opposition. Even when he can’t buy a basket the effect on team is huge. His outrageous on/off court differentials is no statistical anomaly.

His impact hasn’t been that of a 23 yo rookie named Larry Bird who transformed worst team in NBA into an NBA best 61 win team, but I can’t think of another Celtic rookie after Bird who comes close to Tatum.

[SLCceltic]

I got into in another thread about JBs floor and ceiling (I stated that his floor is Jimmy Butler and ceiling Scottie Pippen)

Here goes with JT ha
Tatum's floor is Tayshaun Prince
His ceiling is rich man's Phriss Middleton