What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

zoyathedestroya · Post #41 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 7:39 am

Read into the available sample what you will, but the top 8 combos among our top 4 players have Tatum in them. Jayson-Gordo combo with best defensive rating and best net rating. Jayson-Kemba combo with best offensive rating. Pop and others were right when they said he has the potential to be one of the very few true two-way players in the league. He might already be there. At 21 yo.

The 263 minutes when team is still doing well with just JT and bench guys are really encouraging.

Fencer reregistered · Post #42 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 7:48 am

Ya know -- a large fraction of the improvement in Tatum's game boils down to footwork.

-- Something was wrong on his drives, and all his layup attempts had a high degree of difficulty. That seems to have cleared up.
-- Those sideways moves on his contested 3s are deadly and probably already the best in the game.
-- The precision with which he now plays defense may come essentially from better recognition and commitment, but it couldn't be executed without excellent footwork.

Post #43 » by **ParticleMan** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 8:55 am

the thing you have to love the most about JT is how much he has improved. he took some self-admitted bad advice last year and tried to play a style not conducive to winning, but the next year, instead of being stubborn and doubling down, he was like ok, let me totally change my game again and work on adding drives to the rim. and yeah it was ugly at first, but now we're starting to see him understand angles and footwork a lot better.

you have to love a 21-yo kid who not only listens to advice, but is able to change his style and work on his flaws relentlessly to actually add to his game even when he is one of the best players on the team. that more than anything bodes well. and it's a pattern too -- he's improved so much on D, he might be our best wing defender now. he's improved his body so much, nobody is pushing him around in the post anymore. just all-round improvement in every facet.

i don't know what his ceiling is, mostly because i think his trajectory is still pretty sharply upwards. which is not bad for an all-star who is already top 10-15 in many advanced metrics. i'll just say, at this point i don't think it's necessary for us to trade for an MVP-caliber player to have a shot at a title.

Post #44 » by **K For Three** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 9:06 am

Regardless of who he is compared to or his overall ceiling, he's killing it in jersey sales lol. (and yes, it matters)

Read on Twitter

threrf23 · Post #45 » by **threrf23** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 9:20 am

ParticleMan wrote:
you have to love a 21-yo kid who not only listens to advice, but is able to change his style and work on his flaws relentlessly to actually add to his game even when he is one of the best players on the team. that more than anything bodes well. and it's a pattern too -- he's improved so much on D, he might be our best wing defender now. he's improved his body so much, nobody is pushing him around in the post anymore. just all-round improvement in every facet.

Not to take away from the work he has put in, but players, especially thinner/weaker players, have a tendency to break out after they hit 21. It has to do with physical maturation. Often they tend to break out the season after they turn 21. Trae Young and SGA, for example, fit the bill this season in addition to Tatum. Why did we draft Fab Melo? In part because he improved noticeably after he turned 21, and it was mistaken for an indication that he was a hard worker.

He's getting a lot of credit for improvement on the defensive end, but by the numbers he was already really underrated on that end of the floor. I put together my own stats at the end of each season - here's the thread I posted at the end of last season. Defensively, players are ranked mostly based on a combination of slight adjusted versions of +/-, DRTG, counterpart PER, and straight steal/block/foul stats.

Pull up that thread and read - you'll find that Tatum had ranked 8th overall league wide for two seasons straight. And if I go back and look at 10 years worth of spreadsheets, the only under 21 players to rank top 20 are MKG, Anthony Davis, and Jayson Tatum. Tatum's the only one to have ranked top 10, and he did it twice.

zoyathedestroya · Post #46 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:08 am

Random thought: Kawhi Leonard was in his 3rd year when he won Finals MVP while playing alongside three HOFers.

Jayson Tatum, in his 3rd year, is currently playing with THREE 1st ballot HOFers -- Vincent Poirier, Brad Wanamaker, Semi Ojeleye.

TheMartian · Post #47 » by **TheMartian** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:19 am

Kemba For Three wrote:Regardless of who he is compared to or his overall ceiling, he's killing it in jersey sales lol. (and yes, it matters)

Read on Twitter

That is some mighty good company right there.

Fencer reregistered · Post #48 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:27 am

mzepol wrote:
Kemba For Three wrote:Regardless of who he is compared to or his overall ceiling, he's killing it in jersey sales lol. (and yes, it matters)

Read on Twitter

That is some mighty good company right there.

Isn't this because the young girls like him?

exculpatory · Post #49 » by **exculpatory** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:35 am

Kemba For Three wrote:Regardless of who he is compared to or his overall ceiling, he's killing it in jersey sales lol. (and yes, it matters)

Read on Twitter

Why does it matter?

Because size (of his uniform) matters?

Because the refs will be more likely 1) to buy his jersey; 2) start wearing Tatum jerseys while officiating games; 3) ask for his autograph during time outs & half time; & 4) give him Super Star calls?

KGtabake · Post #50 » by **KGtabake** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:44 am

Kobe

claycarver · Post #51 » by **claycarver** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 10:52 am

Tatum and Romeo for Fultz. If they weren't 6ers fans, they'd be pitied.

zoyathedestroya · Post #52 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 11:19 am

claycarver wrote:Tatum and Romeo for Fultz. If they weren't 6ers fans, they'd be pitied.

Right now, it's Tatum and Romeo for the 2020 21st pick and 2020 2nd round pick (w/c I'm not sure they still have after the deals they made).

claycarver · Post #53 » by **claycarver** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 11:25 am

zoyathedestroya wrote:
claycarver wrote:Tatum and Romeo for Fultz. If they weren't 6ers fans, they'd be pitied.

Right now, it's Tatum and Romeo for the 2020 21st pick and 2020 2nd round pick (w/c I'm not sure they still have after the deals they made).

So, there's still a chance the 6ers could come up roses

zoyathedestroya · Post #54 » by **zoyathedestroya** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 11:32 am

claycarver wrote:
zoyathedestroya wrote:
claycarver wrote:Tatum and Romeo for Fultz. If they weren't 6ers fans, they'd be pitied.

Right now, it's Tatum and Romeo for the 2020 21st pick and 2020 2nd round pick (w/c I'm not sure they still have after the deals they made).

So, there's still a chance the 6ers could come up roses

I can't believe we were duped into thinking Fultz was our guy because Ainge took him to Chipotle.

When you think about it, Danny risked (and eventually suffered) a mild heart attack to fool Sixers into thinking we really wanted Fultz. That's next-level GM-ing. He's eating plant-based now so all is well.

estendius · Post #55 » by **estendius** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 3:31 pm

Tatum ceiling I think will a little worse than KD: 26-28ppg.

Post #56 » by **tlee324** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 4:14 pm

Statistically you’re looking at someone who can give you 30+/8+/4 with great percentages all around.

What I’m seeing beyond that is a player who can positively impact the game defensively and in the clutch.

He has a blend of Pierce, Dirk, George and Kobe offensively and he’s carving his own lane and style defensively.

24istheLAW · Post #57 » by **24istheLAW** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 5:06 pm

same as before the season, some blend of Paul George and Dirk

crimsonandblue · Post #58 » by **crimsonandblue** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 5:07 pm

exculpatory wrote:
crimsonandblue wrote:
Parliament10 wrote:Jayson Tatum is destined to be a Top 5 player.
He reminds me of Paul Pierce, only a bit bigger, and a little more up-to-date.

https://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/paul_pierce_vs_jayson_tatum.htm

Pierce was never close to being a top-5 player

He sure as **** was.
He was vastly underrated.
He was most definitely a 5-15 player in his prime.
Is that close enough to 5?

Actually no, it’s not close enough. The gap between the 15th best player in the league and the 5th best is as big as the 50th best and 15th best.

Post #59 » by **tlee324** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 5:49 pm

crimsonandblue wrote:
exculpatory wrote:
crimsonandblue wrote:
Pierce was never close to being a top-5 player

He sure as **** was.
He was vastly underrated.
He was most definitely a 5-15 player in his prime.
Is that close enough to 5?

Actually no, it’s not close enough. The gap between the 15th best player in the league and the 5th best is as big as the 50th best and 15th best.

Paul was always a player that ranked higher in the 4th quarter and in clutch games or clutch situations over players that were traditionally ranked higher than him or voted to more all star games, or in fantasy leagues.

Post #60 » by **Feed Your Head** » Sun Feb 9, 2020 6:17 pm

Pierce was more of a top 10-15 guy over a season, but he had the ability to be a top 3-5 player in the biggest games.

Which is the ultimate compliment, IMO.