Xatticus wrote:pepe1991 wrote:Xatticus wrote:
I didn't compare Payton to his backups. I compared him with the Orlando Magic. The Knicks score 109.2 points per 100 possessions when Payton is on the floor. The Magic score 107.5 points per 100 possessions when Vucevic and Fournier are on the floor together.
In your theory, the difference between 10 field goal attempts from Payton and 10 field goal attempts from Vucevic is 1.4 points on average, but that neglects the large majority of what is actually happening. Payton's offensive impact simply isn't as evident in his own stat line. That doesn't make it any less real.
For example, Fournier and Doncic have very similar career true shooting percentages. Fournier actually has a higher true shooting percentage this year. You could make the same argument, albeit somewhat less pronounced in this case, about the difference in potential points. And yet Fournier has been a member of one of the worst NBA offenses for six years running, while Doncic is the engine that powers the most efficient offense in NBA history.
I think the implication of the Payton/Fultz comparison was quite clear, especially given your history. Fultz is a mixed bag at this point. We just don't know what he is going to be in two years' time, but that's the nature of young point guards. We don't really have any choice but to extend him and hope that he continues to improve.
Payton can't exist in same sentence with Evan and Vučević. They are so far superior players that it's not even worth entertaining debate. Their salaries speek for itself. One is bounced around 4 team in 3 years , never could land more than 1 year deal and is basically used as cap holder for Knicks ( $0 money guaranteed for next year ) where Vuc was allstar last year and Evan is 19 ppg player on elite efficiency. To this date he never played on a team was even close to making playoffs. Good for tanking i guess?
Even if you look at their RPMs, Vuc and Evan have +0,60 and +0,70 and belong among top 12-14 players at their position and Elf is.... -0,77, ranked 57th among PGs.
RPM is best indicator of actual contribution. Doncic is 4th best player by RPM in whole league, Evan is not even close.
What's my history? Telling everybody Elfrid Payton is garbage before League started treating him as one?
My opinion about Fultz is rather simple one. if he can't regain shooting touch from outside, he, much like any other non shooting PG - isn't NBA starter at point guard position. ( only exception to this rule is Simmons, mostly because he is 6'10- 240 athletic freak)
And this is where I point out that Payton has a net rating of -2.4 versus Vucevic and Fournier lineups which have a net rating of -3.9. Vucevic's individual net rating is -1.3 and Fournier's is -3.0. So yeah... the New York Knicks have been a better team when Payton is on the floor than we have been when Evan Fournier is on the floor. Literally.
In addition to RPM, we also have RAPTOR now, which paints a dramatically different picture. Payton is +1.5, Vucevic is +1.3, and Fournier is +0.1. If you look at the breakdowns of those rating though, it becomes more evident that box score stats are what buoys Fournier's rating. Our offense is ever so slightly better when he is on the floor, but our defense craters. This is why we are a bad team when he is on the floor.
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/orlando-magic-team-stats?season=2019&category=MISC&time=0If Fournier and Vucevic really are "so far superior", then why aren't we benefiting from it? It's also kind of irrelevant that Payton has never made the playoffs. Prior to last season, neither had Fournier or Vucevic. The reality is that had the Knicks hired Clifford and had we hired Fizdale, we almost certainly wouldn't have been anywhere near the playoffs in the last two season either. The difference is just that Clifford can squeeze more blood out of a collection of turnips.
I'm not arguing that we should bring back Payton. I'm not even arguing that he is good, but if you gave me a choice between paying Payton $8M on a one-year deal versus handing out fat contracts to Vucevic and/or Fournier, then I think the former is the easy choice. If we can somehow turn Vucevic's albatross contract into value, then that would change the math significantly, but I'm highly skeptical. In reality, we have just overpaid our own stat pillagers. You can't really use a player's contract as evidence of his value. What would be the point of statistics if salary was indicative of value? Overpaying a player doesn't make them better. It just makes it tougher to build a roster.
I'm not overly optimistic on Fultz going forward. He isn't the same player that he was when he was taken first in the draft. I'm not really pessimistic about Fultz either though. If the criticism is that he can't turn this roster into a competitor, then I think you are giving him an unreasonable task. Despite the fact that this team is a near certainty to make the playoffs, it is still a bad team. If you are a bad team, having a young and talented point guard to develop is a good thing. We are better off having Fultz on the roster than some veteran that would provide better on-court value right now because there is a chance that Fultz becomes something valuable.
Derailing the development of what precious little talent we have in an effort to add a few wins this season is a fool's crusade. I'm actually fairly concerned that this is what our front office is doing. MCW, Ennis, Aminu... in a vacuum, these might be better players than whatever alternatives we could muster, but these are not additions that add anything to our long-term outlook. Perhaps they are better than replacement level, but they hold replacement-level value and they don't move the needle for us in the here and now. One of the advantages of being a bad team is that you can use some roster spots to take on some extra risk. Memphis did this with the Jackson/Melton trade. If it doesn't work, cut bait and move on. When it does work though, you can reap huge rewards. We are never going to unearth a Dinwiddie or LeVert if the plan is to plug every hole with a 30-year-old journeyman.
No, you simply can't help youself as you "died" in Payton- sucks/is good debates in 2016-2018 and can't let it go.
Payton gets one year contracts because his value as non shooting PG is that. Being payed like a backup or third string PG.
Because he is not good by any streach of imagination he is being offered this- salary holder- type deals on one year lenths. Esencially being Jeff Green-ed by a teams like Knicks who payed him and few others big bucks for one year to chase FAs in 2020 and 2021.
RPM is the best indicator of actual value. RAPTOR thing is still broken as hell and overvalues low usage and works basically against higher usage players.
Net rating is way too tied to who you play with when it comes to starters that i never payed too much attention. IN nights when Knicks play their best players as starters, they are not by invididual talent much worst than our injuries- riddled roster.
By RAPTOR value, Rudy Gobert is literally 4th best player on planet Earth and Duncan Robinson and Montrezzi Harrell are superstars and top 25 players.
Any list where Baverley, Danny Green , Royce O'neal , Donte DiVincenzo, Wood, Ivica Zubac and many other role players are ranked higher than Porzingis, Sabonis, MItchell , Brogdon or Pascal Siakam shouldn't be taken seriously.
Matter of fact this thing is so broken that Siakam who is arguably one of best two way players on planet Earth, allstar is somehow ranked lower than Alex Caruso ? Wait ,what?
Again, Pascal Siakam , Sabonis, Mitchell and Zingis, 4 allstars, did not crack top 50 list because list of 14 mpg, 15% usage rate players are ranked higher. Laughable.
I'm not for moving Fultz so i agree about bottom part.
I would not pay him big money tho.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon