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Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released)

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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#381 » by JYD » Fri Apr 3, 2020 9:20 pm

Psubs wrote:I see Pokusevski and Sylla in a 2021 mock, I think Masai could possibly take Poku or Sylla to stash a year or so until Giannis arrives.


Poku is that upside guy I really like if we can snatch him. His skillset is really impressive. He looks like a toothpick but most of that is upstairs, his legs/base and body control are strong.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#382 » by Psubs » Sat Apr 4, 2020 12:38 am

Ell Curry wrote:
casual_raps_fan wrote:
Ell Curry wrote:Tillman brings little offensively at the moment but his shot doesn't seem broken and he can pass a bit. Defensively he's fantastic at switching. I see him as a 2nd rounder, but he could be a modern day Chuck Hayes or Jason Collins type since defending the post is now switching 1-5. Would love it if we got him with our 2nd rounder if he drops.

This is off topic from the thread and random but I had totally forgotten about Jason Collins.

I looked up his basketball reference page and I was actually surprised how good his resume looks.

He was in the league for 12 years playing 20 minutes per game. His stats don't stand out at all but he was a starter for the Nets that made the playoffs 5 straight seasons. He played 26 minutes per game during the playoffs for the Nets team that made the finals.

In comparison, Chuck Hayes' resume does not really compare well to that.



Disagree.

From 2003 to 2009, Hayes had the second highest defensive adjusted plus-minus of all NBA players.[10] Through December 25, 2009, Hayes had the fifth highest overall adjusted plus-minus for the 2009–10 NBA season.


Chuck Hayes ruled. Was the 12-14th best player in his draft year, so honestly if we got a guy like him at 27 or whatever we pick in this weak draft it would be very good, I'm just greedy from the Siakam and Norm picks (OG I knew was good) and Masai finding even better players that late.

Tillman's RAPM numbers are incredible, I forgot to mention. Like he's the best Big 10 center by them ahead of guys like Oturu or Luke Garza (who probably won't stick in the NBA but is truly dominant offensively in college) or Jalen Smith. They say he's the communicator who runs their D and getting a guy like that with Gasol and Lowry being so old might be something we need, even if we have smart defenders as part of our first half of the 2020s core in Siakam and Anunoby so need it less than most teams. To conclude my rambling, a defensively awful team like the Wizards should draft Tillman if he's around for their 2nd pick (37th).


I saw a video about Tillman and he married his Highshool gf and has a kid and seems like a good-valued family man that fits on the team. He also worked hard to shed weight and get better.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#383 » by Psubs » Sat Apr 4, 2020 12:51 am

JYD wrote:
Psubs wrote:I see Pokusevski and Sylla in a 2021 mock, I think Masai could possibly take Poku or Sylla to stash a year or so until Giannis arrives.


Poku is that upside guy I really like if we can snatch him. His skillset is really impressive. He looks like a toothpick but most of that is upstairs, his legs/base and body control are strong.


Tortiglioni wrote:Image

Bring him home.


https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Aleksej-Pokusevski/Summary/130811

Seems to do okay for the 2nd division Olympiacos team. He seems to be a good passer with good A/T for even a SG.

His FG% is low as half of his attempts are from 3. Bargnani 2.0 :reporter: I guess at worst he's Dragan Bender 2.0.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#384 » by casual_raps_fan » Sat Apr 4, 2020 1:30 am

HeadtopChunes wrote:Leandro Bolmaro is interesting to me too

6-7 guard, decently athletic, great handles, strong finisher, good vision, a strong point of attack defender.

Needs to improve shooting and strength but def a first-round talent IMO


He looks very goods.

It looks like his biggest strength is his offensive versatility. Has all the tools to be a playmaker. Can work on or off the ball. Offensively he looks like a good prospect for a late 1st round pick.

I'd have to see more footage (especially defence) but I'm very interested.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#385 » by ontnut » Sat Apr 4, 2020 1:31 am

I'd probably look to deal the pick tbh. But Masai has pulled so many great picks late in the draft I'm happy to let him swing again. I just don't see anyone I really like that late in kind of a weak draft, but that's also exactly how we got Siakam, so whatdoiknow.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#386 » by casual_raps_fan » Sat Apr 4, 2020 1:42 am

Psubs wrote:
JYD wrote:
Psubs wrote:I see Pokusevski and Sylla in a 2021 mock, I think Masai could possibly take Poku or Sylla to stash a year or so until Giannis arrives.


Poku is that upside guy I really like if we can snatch him. His skillset is really impressive. He looks like a toothpick but most of that is upstairs, his legs/base and body control are strong.


Tortiglioni wrote:Image

Bring him home.


https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Aleksej-Pokusevski/Summary/130811

Seems to do okay for the 2nd division Olympiacos team. He seems to be a good passer with good A/T for even a SG.

His FG% is low as half of his attempts are from 3. Bargnani 2.0 :reporter: I guess at worst he's Dragan Bender 2.0.

Seems like a really risky pick for a 1st round pick. I wish we had an early second round to get these types of guys.

Edit:
After putting in more thought, I might not even spend an early 2nd on him even if we had it. I'm questioning whether he would be able to defend a position in the NBA.

Even if he gets stronger, you can look at him and tell that he won't be able to withstand the center position. He will get absolutely murdered there. Which leaves him defending the 4 which is a super athletic position.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#387 » by HeadtopChunes » Sat Apr 4, 2020 2:46 am

casual_raps_fan wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:Leandro Bolmaro is interesting to me too

6-7 guard, decently athletic, great handles, strong finisher, good vision, a strong point of attack defender.

Needs to improve shooting and strength but def a first-round talent IMO


He looks very goods.

It looks like his biggest strength is his offensive versatility. Has all the tools to be a playmaker. Can work on or off the ball. Offensively he looks like a good prospect for a late 1st round pick.

I'd have to see more footage (especially defence) but I'm very interested.


I agree, offensively my concern lies with his shooting as his percentages aren't good (has hovered around 30% from 3 and 65% from the line the last 3 years). His form looks fine for the most part, but he has issues w/ his wrist causing him to miss Left or Right frequently, would be wary of an underlying medical problem there. If not shouldn't be too hard to fix. But without the shooting, it will be tough for him to score in the NBA.

Besides that he's a very crafty player, obviously took a lot of inspiration from Ginobli, probably a top 5 functional passer in this class, and good at moving off-ball.

The defense I'm not worried about, he's got decent size for a 2 (6'7 w/ 6'8 wingspan in 2018), boasts an elite steal rate (3.90%) (highest among all the guards in my data set)

and as previously mentioned very strong on-ball defender

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Still doing my board but have him tentatively top 20 right now, I would be happy to take him at 28 regardless.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#388 » by HeadtopChunes » Sat Apr 4, 2020 2:53 am

casual_raps_fan wrote:
Psubs wrote:
JYD wrote:
Poku is that upside guy I really like if we can snatch him. His skillset is really impressive. He looks like a toothpick but most of that is upstairs, his legs/base and body control are strong.


Tortiglioni wrote:Image

Bring him home.


https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Aleksej-Pokusevski/Summary/130811

Seems to do okay for the 2nd division Olympiacos team. He seems to be a good passer with good A/T for even a SG.

His FG% is low as half of his attempts are from 3. Bargnani 2.0 :reporter: I guess at worst he's Dragan Bender 2.0.

Seems like a really risky pick for a 1st round pick. I wish we had an early second round to get these types of guys.

Edit:
After putting in more thought, I might not even spend an early 2nd on him even if we had it. I'm questioning whether he would be able to defend a position in the NBA.

Even if he gets stronger, you can look at him and tell that he won't be able to withstand the center position. He will get absolutely murdered there. Which leaves him defending the 4 which is a super athletic position.


I think he's fairly mobile, should be enough to play the 4 he also appears to be smart could be above average as a team defender and solid in man. Not very explosive or long though so rim protection will be limited

Its why I agree he's probably not a long term center, bad frame for that will never be strong enough to play it consistently.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#389 » by casual_raps_fan » Sat Apr 4, 2020 3:13 am

HeadtopChunes wrote:
casual_raps_fan wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:Leandro Bolmaro is interesting to me too

6-7 guard, decently athletic, great handles, strong finisher, good vision, a strong point of attack defender.

Needs to improve shooting and strength but def a first-round talent IMO


He looks very goods.

It looks like his biggest strength is his offensive versatility. Has all the tools to be a playmaker. Can work on or off the ball. Offensively he looks like a good prospect for a late 1st round pick.

I'd have to see more footage (especially defence) but I'm very interested.


I agree, offensively my concern lies with his shooting as his percentages aren't good (has hovered around 30% from 3 and 65% from the line the last 3 years). His form looks fine for the most part, but he has issues w/ his wrist causing him to miss Left or Right frequently, would be wary of an underlying medical problem there. If not shouldn't be too hard to fix. But without the shooting, it will be tough for him to score in the NBA.

Besides that he's a very crafty player, obviously took a lot of inspiration from Ginobli, probably a top 5 functional passer in this class, and good at moving off-ball.

The defense I'm not worried about, he's got decent size for a 2 (6'7 w/ 6'8 wingspan in 2018), boasts an elite steal rate (3.90%) (highest among all the guards in my data set)

and as previously mentioned very strong on-ball defender

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Still doing my board but have him tentatively top 20 right now, I would be happy to take him at 28 regardless.

Ok. I'm pretty sold on him. Versatile, competes on both ends of the floor, shows creativity, shows awareness and ball IQ. That's a recipe for success under Nurse.

I think his jumper is acceptable. Definitely not a deal breaker. The percentages might not be great but looking at the stroke, it's workable.

I'd be very happy if the Raptors select him. If his development were to go according to plan, he'd be able to take McCaw's role and bring scoring to the table as well.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#390 » by casual_raps_fan » Sat Apr 4, 2020 3:41 am

Mark_83 wrote:What do people think about Yves Pons as a small-ball centre in the second round? He's got some Draymond elements in his game, though is probably more of a Crowder type.

He has played SF, PF, and even C for his college team. He's a 21-year-old Junior, 6'6, uber-athletic with a 7'0 wingspan.

His stats are kind of middling, other than the 2.4 blocks, but he has an intriguing skillset.

32. YVES PONS, Tennessee
Details: 21 years old, 6-foot-6, 215 lbs
Key Stats: 10.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 35% 3PT

Pons is the best athlete and the best defender in this entire 2020 NBA mock draft class. You often hear things like “he can guard all five positions” which tends to be an exaggeration. Not for Pons. He can, quite literally, guard any point guard, any center and anyone in between. He can play the four, and at times even the five, in small-ball lineups in the NBA to great effect. What makes him even more intriguing is that he shot 42 percent on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes. I think this is the most important number when it comes to his three-point shooting, because these are the face-up, step-in threes that he’ll be shooting at the next level.

The thing about Pons is that he played the three as a sophomore. As a junior, he was Tennessee’s four, which meant that instead of coming off of screens to get a shot, he was stepping into them as a trailing big or catching and shooting as a floor-spacer. This is the role he would play in the league.

Put it all together, and I’ll buy on a player that has an elite NBA skill with the potential to fill out his game to be effective in a role.





From these clips, his defensive potential looks good. Physically, it looks like you'd be able to throw him at guys like Giannis, Lebron, Zion, Kawhi, etc.

His offense is a huge question mark though. It's nice that he can hit open 3s but there's nothing else there and I don't see much potential anywhere either. No signs of finesse, creativity, ball handling. He doesn't look to see the floor well.

I'd need to see more footage but based on these two videos, my verdict he's too raw and has limited offensive upside. I would prefer looking at somebody else.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#391 » by HeadtopChunes » Sat Apr 4, 2020 4:02 am

if the season is canceled, do you think they should add all the teams to the lottery?
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#392 » by DelAbbot » Sat Apr 4, 2020 6:07 am

Xavier Tillman would be great for our 2nd rounder or undrafted pickup. He has great strength and passing, along with a projectable shooting form. His finishing inside reminds me of Greg Monroe and passing ability that can reach Boris Diaw's level. His defensive effort is good and can switch. Overall he feels like a player who can fit in well in Nurse's system.

However he is undeserving of a 1st round pick. He has significant physical limitations. He has below average vertical and below average wingspan (looks shorter than his reported 7'1) for a PF/C. His straight line speed is avg. Those measurements limit his potential to off the bench big man. He reminds me of a better passing but undersized Greg Monroe - doesnt fit in our team which has 2 all star level forwards with better wingspans and hops than Tillman. And we surely wouldn't want a 6'8 starting centre with below avg hops.

NBAdraft.net has him undrafted and ESPN (draftexpress) has him mid second round.

Considering MU's team's approach has always prioritized athleticism and projectability for 1st round picks, I don't see us drafting Xavier Tillman in the 1st around.

Ell Curry wrote:
casual_raps_fan wrote:
Ell Curry wrote:Tillman brings little offensively at the moment but his shot doesn't seem broken and he can pass a bit. Defensively he's fantastic at switching. I see him as a 2nd rounder, but he could be a modern day Chuck Hayes or Jason Collins type since defending the post is now switching 1-5. Would love it if we got him with our 2nd rounder if he drops.

This is off topic from the thread and random but I had totally forgotten about Jason Collins.

I looked up his basketball reference page and I was actually surprised how good his resume looks.

He was in the league for 12 years playing 20 minutes per game. His stats don't stand out at all but he was a starter for the Nets that made the playoffs 5 straight seasons. He played 26 minutes per game during the playoffs for the Nets team that made the finals.

In comparison, Chuck Hayes' resume does not really compare well to that.



Disagree.

From 2003 to 2009, Hayes had the second highest defensive adjusted plus-minus of all NBA players.[10] Through December 25, 2009, Hayes had the fifth highest overall adjusted plus-minus for the 2009–10 NBA season.


Chuck Hayes ruled. Was the 12-14th best player in his draft year, so honestly if we got a guy like him at 27 or whatever we pick in this weak draft it would be very good, I'm just greedy from the Siakam and Norm picks (OG I knew was good) and Masai finding even better players that late.

Tillman's RAPM numbers are incredible, I forgot to mention. Like he's the best Big 10 center by them ahead of guys like Oturu or Luke Garza (who probably won't stick in the NBA but is truly dominant offensively in college) or Jalen Smith. They say he's the communicator who runs their D and getting a guy like that with Gasol and Lowry being so old might be something we need, even if we have smart defenders as part of our first half of the 2020s core in Siakam and Anunoby so need it less than most teams. To conclude my rambling, a defensively awful team like the Wizards should draft Tillman if he's around for their 2nd pick (37th).
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#393 » by Psubs » Sat Apr 4, 2020 3:11 pm

DelAbbot wrote:Xavier Tillman would be great for our 2nd rounder or undrafted pickup. He has great strength and passing, along with a projectable shooting form. His finishing inside reminds me of Greg Monroe and passing ability that can reach Boris Diaw's level. His defensive effort is good and can switch. Overall he feels like a player who can fit in well in Nurse's system.

However he is undeserving of a 1st round pick. He has significant physical limitations. He has below average vertical and below average wingspan (looks shorter than his reported 7'1) for a PF/C. His straight line speed is avg. Those measurements limit his potential to off the bench big man. He reminds me of a better passing but undersized Greg Monroe - doesnt fit in our team which has 2 all star level forwards with better wingspans and hops than Tillman. And we surely wouldn't want a 6'8 starting centre with below avg hops.

NBAdraft.net has him undrafted and ESPN (draftexpress) has him mid second round.

Considering MU's team's approach has always prioritized athleticism and projectability for 1st round picks, I don't see us drafting Xavier Tillman in the 1st round.


I agree. He's a prime candidate as limited upside like Taj Gibson, but able to contribute as a backup big.

I like that his A/T is 3/2.

What about Luka Garza? He's a big C that can shoot the 3 (35% with NBA range).

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/luka-garza-1.html



Looks like Marc Gasol without the passing.



His moves are quick but not rushed. May he'll be like Vucevic but already have his 3pt shot (whereas Vucevic developed it at age 27).
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#394 » by HeadtopChunes » Sat Apr 4, 2020 3:22 pm

DelAbbot wrote:Xavier Tillman would be great for our 2nd rounder or undrafted pickup. He has great strength and passing, along with a projectable shooting form. His finishing inside reminds me of Greg Monroe and passing ability that can reach Boris Diaw's level. His defensive effort is good and can switch. Overall he feels like a player who can fit in well in Nurse's system.

However he is undeserving of a 1st round pick. He has significant physical limitations. He has below average vertical and below average wingspan (looks shorter than his reported 7'1) for a PF/C. His straight line speed is avg. Those measurements limit his potential to off the bench big man. He reminds me of a better passing but undersized Greg Monroe - doesnt fit in our team which has 2 all star level forwards with better wingspans and hops than Tillman. And we surely wouldn't want a 6'8 starting centre with below avg hops.

NBAdraft.net has him undrafted and ESPN (draftexpress) has him mid second round.

Considering MU's team's approach has always prioritized athleticism and projectability for 1st round picks, I don't see us drafting Xavier Tillman in the 1st around.


Not really a fan of the Greg Monroe comparison here, Tillmans's biggest selling point is his defense. Which was Monroe's biggest weakness. Tillman has also had superior 2p% numbers (62% vs Monroes 56%) across his entire career, I think you can argue he's a better finisher than Monroe, Tillman also is more likely to shoot 3s although the results aren't great yet. Far more comparable to a smaller Al Horford IMO

I think the athletic concerns you listed are valid and why he isn't a lottery pick, but at the same time, I still think he's one of the best bigs in the class.

As far as his role in the NBA, it's possible he's not a guy you want starting for a majority of the regular season at center, (maybe, the Center position is very different these days, Celtics have done quite well starting a 6'8 Daniel Theis all season), but consider this, if Tillman does become a + defending big with the ability guard multiple positions, pass at a high level and shoot, that's a really good player to have in your playoff rotation. Maybe he doesn't have the potential to start games in the regular season, but he does have the potential to close games in the playoffs and I think that's worth a first. Especially since the cost of acquiring an average starting center is minuscule.

Also don't think there's a huge difference between the 28th pick or a 2nd round pick, most drafts you are lucky to have anybody who's still a rotation player at that range.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#396 » by HeadtopChunes » Sat Apr 4, 2020 7:20 pm

Mark_83 wrote:What do people think about Yves Pons as a small-ball centre in the second round? He's got some Draymond elements in his game, though is probably more of a Crowder type.

He has played SF, PF, and even C for his college team. He's a 21-year-old Junior, 6'6, uber-athletic with a 7'0 wingspan.

His stats are kind of middling, other than the 2.4 blocks, but he has an intriguing skillset.

32. YVES PONS, Tennessee
Details: 21 years old, 6-foot-6, 215 lbs
Key Stats: 10.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 35% 3PT

Pons is the best athlete and the best defender in this entire 2020 NBA mock draft class. You often hear things like “he can guard all five positions” which tends to be an exaggeration. Not for Pons. He can, quite literally, guard any point guard, any center and anyone in between. He can play the four, and at times even the five, in small-ball lineups in the NBA to great effect. What makes him even more intriguing is that he shot 42 percent on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes. I think this is the most important number when it comes to his three-point shooting, because these are the face-up, step-in threes that he’ll be shooting at the next level.

The thing about Pons is that he played the three as a sophomore. As a junior, he was Tennessee’s four, which meant that instead of coming off of screens to get a shot, he was stepping into them as a trailing big or catching and shooting as a floor-spacer. This is the role he would play in the league.

Put it all together, and I’ll buy on a player that has an elite NBA skill with the potential to fill out his game to be effective in a role.




Don't really have a Pons take but I just found this video of TD postering him with a nasty dunk lol

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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#397 » by Psubs » Sat Apr 4, 2020 10:30 pm

HeadtopChunes wrote:
Don't really have a Pons take but I just found this video of TD postering him with a nasty dunk lol

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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#398 » by Ell Curry » Sun Apr 5, 2020 9:02 pm

Bull-E wrote:Hard for me to say we need to draft for a specific need when we have such a good player development system. I'd be more inclined to use the draft for secure top, versatile talent, regardless of position or profile. Go after undrafted guys and free-agent "redrafts" to fill specific needs.

Last time we gunned to fill a need at SF in the draft, Bruno AND DeAndre Daniels were picked while Nikola Jokic and Spencer Dinwiddie were left on the board.

In a perfect world this year, I actually believe the Raptors brass may prefer to draft-and-stash so as not to mess with the cap sheet, plus we already have quite a bit of young talent in the system.


The core of the team for the purposes of this draft (late pick, weak draft) is just Siakam, OG and Terrence Davis and then let's say presumably VanVleet and possibly Boucher, and they're all comfortable playing 2 positions.

A big defensive 5 to a tiny scoring guard all fit relatively fine (the latter would seem too small to but a 3 guard rotation of VanVleet, TD and say a Lou Will type looks fine if the alternative is a bigger 2 guard who's nowhere near as good) with those guys.

I think it's definitely BPA on this one.
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#399 » by Ell Curry » Sun Apr 5, 2020 9:15 pm

HeadtopChunes wrote:Not really a fan of the Greg Monroe comparison here, Tillmans's biggest selling point is his defense. Which was Monroe's biggest weakness. Tillman has also had superior 2p% numbers (62% vs Monroes 56%) across his entire career, I think you can argue he's a better finisher than Monroe, Tillman also is more likely to shoot 3s although the results aren't great yet. Far more comparable to a smaller Al Horford IMO

I think the athletic concerns you listed are valid and why he isn't a lottery pick, but at the same time, I still think he's one of the best bigs in the class.

As far as his role in the NBA, it's possible he's not a guy you want starting for a majority of the regular season at center, (maybe, the Center position is very different these days, Celtics have done quite well starting a 6'8 Daniel Theis all season), but consider this, if Tillman does become a + defending big with the ability guard multiple positions, pass at a high level and shoot, that's a really good player to have in your playoff rotation. Maybe he doesn't have the potential to start games in the regular season, but he does have the potential to close games in the playoffs and I think that's worth a first. Especially since the cost of acquiring an average starting center is minuscule.

Also don't think there's a huge difference between the 28th pick or a 2nd round pick, most drafts you are lucky to have anybody who's still a rotation player at that range.


Yeah the only thing I see similar to Monroe is that both are good elbow passers.

I think the problem with the theory that a guy like Tillman can switch enough to be a close the game at center is that he provides little on O unless he can become a very good offensive rebounder or a good 3pt shooter.

But 1st in Win shares last year (per 40, 4th total) in the Big 10 and 3rd this year and 1st both years in Box Score plus minus. That and being able to switch defensively and still putting up 14-10-3 with 2 blocks and a steal as a Junior just screams modern rotation backup 5 doesn't it? Not an exciting pick at 28 and if we draft a high upside athlete like Williams from FSU we'll all assume he's the next Siakam, but Masai does have to operate within reality, rather than the idea he can just find a quality starting player in the high 20s every year. Does Masai want to draft Celtics Aron Baynes with the 28th pick? My feeling is no, but he'd be happy to get him in the 30s, so if this draft class is really as bad as the top of it suggests...
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HeadtopChunes
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Re: Raps 2020 Picks (Prospect Watch, Update: Vecenie Mock Released) 

Post#400 » by HeadtopChunes » Sun Apr 5, 2020 10:02 pm

Ell Curry wrote:
HeadtopChunes wrote:Not really a fan of the Greg Monroe comparison here, Tillmans's biggest selling point is his defense. Which was Monroe's biggest weakness. Tillman has also had superior 2p% numbers (62% vs Monroes 56%) across his entire career, I think you can argue he's a better finisher than Monroe, Tillman also is more likely to shoot 3s although the results aren't great yet. Far more comparable to a smaller Al Horford IMO

I think the athletic concerns you listed are valid and why he isn't a lottery pick, but at the same time, I still think he's one of the best bigs in the class.

As far as his role in the NBA, it's possible he's not a guy you want starting for a majority of the regular season at center, (maybe, the Center position is very different these days, Celtics have done quite well starting a 6'8 Daniel Theis all season), but consider this, if Tillman does become a + defending big with the ability guard multiple positions, pass at a high level and shoot, that's a really good player to have in your playoff rotation. Maybe he doesn't have the potential to start games in the regular season, but he does have the potential to close games in the playoffs and I think that's worth a first. Especially since the cost of acquiring an average starting center is minuscule.

Also don't think there's a huge difference between the 28th pick or a 2nd round pick, most drafts you are lucky to have anybody who's still a rotation player at that range.


Yeah the only thing I see similar to Monroe is that both are good elbow passers.

I think the problem with the theory that a guy like Tillman can switch enough to be a close the game at center is that he provides little on O unless he can become a very good offensive rebounder or a good 3pt shooter.

But 1st in Win shares last year (per 40, 4th total) in the Big 10 and 3rd this year and 1st both years in Box Score plus minus. That and being able to switch defensively and still putting up 14-10-3 with 2 blocks and a steal as a Junior just screams modern rotation backup 5 doesn't it? Not an exciting pick at 28 and if we draft a high upside athlete like Williams from FSU we'll all assume he's the next Siakam, but Masai does have to operate within reality, rather than the idea he can just find a quality starting player in the high 20s every year. Does Masai want to draft Celtics Aron Baynes with the 28th pick? My feeling is no, but he'd be happy to get him in the 30s, so if this draft class is really as bad as the top of it suggests...


I definitely think the 3pt shot has to become decent at least, but being a playoff closer is more of an upside thing for him. As far as the offensive value I think Tillman can still provide that with his passing and screening ability (both among the top of the class for bigs). I think he can finish just fine (9th among all the bigs i have ranked in 2p%) too, considering how successful we've been with Marc playing with historically bad finishing.

I agree that he isn't the sexy pick, and his upside isn't great unless he becomes an elite defender or spacer, but as per your last point I agree that the draft class really is as bad as it looks. I'm not extremely high on Tillman but he's still my 5th ranked Big in the draft. I don't think there are that many bigs with more upside than him in this class. Tillman isn't my first choice at 28 for us but I'd be happy with him as opposed to nearly every other big in this class. (The only other bigs in our range I'd consider is Aleksej Pokusevski and Zeke Nnaji)

But to expand on that point I don't think we should force ourselves to take a big either, don't think we should draft for need but rather for talent. But given the dearth of talent in this year's class, drafting a good rotation player wouldn't be a bad outcome especially at the end of the first round. It would be a comparable move to drafting Delon Wright in 2015 imo

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