DelAbbot wrote:Xavier Tillman would be great for our 2nd rounder or undrafted pickup. He has great strength and passing, along with a projectable shooting form. His finishing inside reminds me of Greg Monroe and passing ability that can reach Boris Diaw's level. His defensive effort is good and can switch. Overall he feels like a player who can fit in well in Nurse's system.
However he is undeserving of a 1st round pick. He has significant physical limitations. He has below average vertical and below average wingspan (looks shorter than his reported 7'1) for a PF/C. His straight line speed is avg. Those measurements limit his potential to off the bench big man. He reminds me of a better passing but undersized Greg Monroe - doesnt fit in our team which has 2 all star level forwards with better wingspans and hops than Tillman. And we surely wouldn't want a 6'8 starting centre with below avg hops.
NBAdraft.net has him undrafted and ESPN (draftexpress) has him mid second round.
Considering MU's team's approach has always prioritized athleticism and projectability for 1st round picks, I don't see us drafting Xavier Tillman in the 1st around.
Not really a fan of the Greg Monroe comparison here, Tillmans's biggest selling point is his defense. Which was Monroe's biggest weakness. Tillman has also had superior 2p% numbers (62% vs Monroes 56%) across his entire career, I think you can argue he's a better finisher than Monroe, Tillman also is more likely to shoot 3s although the results aren't great yet. Far more comparable to a smaller Al Horford IMO
I think the athletic concerns you listed are valid and why he isn't a lottery pick, but at the same time, I still think he's one of the best bigs in the class.
As far as his role in the NBA, it's possible he's not a guy you want starting for a majority of the regular season at center, (maybe, the Center position is very different these days, Celtics have done quite well starting a 6'8 Daniel Theis all season), but consider this, if Tillman does become a + defending big with the ability guard multiple positions, pass at a high level and shoot, that's a really good player to have in your playoff rotation. Maybe he doesn't have the potential to start games in the regular season, but he does have the potential to close games in the playoffs and I think that's worth a first. Especially since the cost of acquiring an average starting center is minuscule.
Also don't think there's a huge difference between the 28th pick or a 2nd round pick, most drafts you are lucky to have anybody who's still a rotation player at that range.