OT: COVID-19 thread #2

[MrSparkle]

The administration's directives to our intel agencies to pursue the escaped from a lab in Wuhan hypothesis echoes back strongly to 2001, when George Bush's administration sought evidence linking Saddam to 911, and later, to link Saddam's regime to the pursuit of WMD's. Thus, we were given the bogus "intel" reports that Saddam was trying to buy yellow cake from Nigeria, that he was importing centrifuges for refining nuclear material, that he was operating a bio weapons lab, that he was testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead long range, and on and on. Very dangerous things happen when a president directs the intelligence community to try to find evidence to support a conclusion.

The worst thing about it is that Donald Trump engages in “word salad.”

Essentially rambles in long, unbroken, incoherent sentences. Folks point out the BS. His followers pick up the fight and exacerbate it into 10x worse.

Trump shrugs and says “Well I didn’t mean that!” - “Sarcasm!” - “Media spun my little tweet out of proportion!” - “See I told you! Liberals are looking for a fight!”

At least W and Dick were pretty clear in their justifications, accusations and used proper governmental procedure, until it was proven that they essentially lied and/or presented fake/unreliable intel. Trump fore-goes all procedure and says whatever is on his mind with zero public courtesy. There is zero difference between Trump’s style and Kim Jong Un, Putin, Duterte. The only difference is we have 230 Representatives, 45 Senators, 4 Supreme Justices pushing back, along with 24 governors and a more complicated distribution of checks and balances.

[dougthonus]

There certainly is a housing crisis in many big cities. Where I live (San Francisco) housing is unbelievably expensive, mainly because it's such a desirable place to live and its surrounded by water on 3 sides so space is limited. People being able to work remotely is not going to solve the problem. People prefer living in the city, as opposed to 50 miles outside of it, where it takes an hour to an hour and a half to get into the city to eat at a restaurant or see a concert, etc. And all the people who work at service jobs in the city (that aren't going to go away) need housing too.

No offense, but what you described there doesn't remotely sound like a crisis.

Loft spaces were a big craze in the 80's and 90's, as people found you could easily adapt old warehouses into living quarters. Converting an office building into housing wouldn't be that much different. It would be much cheaper than tearing down a 15 story structure, and starting from scratch. And much of it is in very desirable locations, right downtown in the heart of the city.

Definitely true about not tearing down a building and putting up a new one. Just that it's still cheaper to buy space in other places and build new buildings. If we really do go on a work from home trend big time in the country then we should see city prices drop a ton, value of city jobs drop a ton, more jobs moving out of the cities, and cities in general becoming more devalued.

We probably won't have that level of WFH conversion in the near future for those effects to be seen in a meaningful way for awhile, but if you go out 20 years from now, I wouldn't be surprised at all if you see those types of changes on a relative basis.

[dougthonus]

I wouldn't blame the parents advice on this. the problem is the cost of higher education has gone through the roof. That is something that should have been corrected a long time ago. When I went to college in the late 70's, a small, liberal arts college in the midwest ran about 25K for 4 years, including tuition and room and board. That same college I went to now charges 10x that.

Whether you want to blame parents or not is one thing, but the generation that gave that bad advice is the one most critical of those whom have taken it. I'm sure it's not a 1:1 thing of course.

There's certainly better advice available. You could advise them to go to community college for 2 years rather than 4 year universities and save nearly 50% of the total cost, as an example, or tell people to focus on the earnings and projected job market of the career they want to go into rather than blindly choosing anything that sounds interesting.

It's not that the degrees are useless. It's that no matter how much money you earn, it's very, very hard to overcome that much debt. Going to college is still a very good thing, and prepares you not only to have a good career, but also a good life, in many ways that you can't quantify.

I'd say going to college is circumstantially a good thing. Interestingly, I think our educational system has almost no intrinsic value. Most of the value that exists is simply because people think its valuable. It needs to be entirely revamped from kindergarten all the way through college. Most education you get is entirely worthless even at college.

People are too attached to the old to evaluate the fact that 90% of the school curriculum is probably worthless for most people. Is there any reason to teach biology, chemistry, physics, social studies, english (past 8th grade)

I don't know why the cost of college shot up so much- there are probably a lot of reasons. I suspect that the availability of almost unlimited financial aid was part of the problem. Colleges thought they could charge whatever they wanted to, because students could just take out larger loans to pay for it. So they used that extra money to make the experience more and more luxurious as they competed with other colleges for students. They build fancier and fancier buildings, athletic facilities, auditoriums, hired more staff, etc.

Agreed, there's no reason it has to be expensive. As you said, they built out too much stupid stuff and spent money on too much stupid stuff.

They should cut out all the fluff of going to college, and focus instead of getting good professors who are good teachers, and giving students a strong education. And then finding ways to cut the cost back to 1970's levels (adjusted for inflation).

Agreed completely. As noted above, I'd revamp the whole system. Kill the bachelors degree all together, it's stupid. Professional masters degrees can be gotten in 1-2 years for 20k online at a lot of good schools. 100% core classes, sometimes you need to take some pre-reqs to get in, but that's maybe another half year. These are everything you really need, and could be done for almost no cost and in half the time.

[MrSparkle]

It's not that the degrees are useless. It's that no matter how much money you earn, it's very, very hard to overcome that much debt. Going to college is still a very good thing, and prepares you not only to have a good career, but also a good life, in many ways that you can't quantify.

I'd say going to college is circumstantially a good thing. Interestingly, I think our educational system has almost no intrinsic value. Most of the value that exists is simply because people think its valuable. It needs to be entirely revamped from kindergarten all the way through college. Most education you get is entirely worthless even at college.

People are too attached to the old to evaluate the fact that 90% of the school curriculum is probably worthless for most people. Is there any reason to teach biology, chemistry, physics, social studies, english (past 8th grade)

Well as someone in education... Did you mean the opposite? Cause I absolutely see a reason to teach biology, chemistry, physics, social studies and English past the 8th grade.

I would however agree that mandating a complete set of niche 101 subjects to get a HS diploma is a bit ridiculous, because your average HS level Physics 101 class can be learned in a month with the right level of focus and head-space (I believe it is better to get a focused track), and getting a taste of it while the conditions are right may completely turn you off (or similarly delude you into thinking it's the right path), depending on circumstantial impressions of your teacher, classmates, your grades, etc.

Granted there are advantages to a well-rounded education, and to apply a sports metaphor, you have your Bo Jackson's who are really good at every sport, but for the average Joe, it would be better to come out of school with 1-2 specialties instead of a jack of zero competent trades.

I would prefer if college-style focus was introduced at the HS level. I think 16yo should be the age where students start to choose their track. It would give young adults more of an opportunity to change course, instead of doing a $150,000 college degree, being 20-22 and realizing they might've made a financial/career mistake with very little opportunity to change course without heavy repercussions.

I don't know why the cost of college shot up so much- there are probably a lot of reasons. I suspect that the availability of almost unlimited financial aid was part of the problem. Colleges thought they could charge whatever they wanted to, because students could just take out larger loans to pay for it. So they used that extra money to make the experience more and more luxurious as they competed with other colleges for students. They build fancier and fancier buildings, athletic facilities, auditoriums, hired more staff, etc.

Agreed, there's no reason it has to be expensive. As you said, they built out too much stupid stuff and spent money on too much stupid stuff.

They should cut out all the fluff of going to college, and focus instead of getting good professors who are good teachers, and giving students a strong education. And then finding ways to cut the cost back to 1970's levels (adjusted for inflation).

Agreed completely. As noted above, I'd revamp the whole system. Kill the bachelors degree all together, it's stupid. Professional masters degrees can be gotten in 1-2 years for 20k online at a lot of good schools. 100% core classes, sometimes you need to take some pre-reqs to get in, but that's maybe another half year. These are everything you really need, and could be done for almost no cost and in half the time.

Well no doubt universities became huge business. Campuses are like Disney World - they are their own "corporate" ecosystems. They can fix housing prices to their liking. Sewanee TN is a perfect example - total middle of nowhere town with really poor towns outside/around it (kind of smack in the middle of Nashville and Chattanooga - like I said, middle of nowhere; too far to commute to either town). But their "domain" is a super affluent university village. And it is highly protected and regulated. And expensive.

I agree. The HS and private college/grad/PhD/Doctorate system is an absolutely broken and outdated system. 21st century came along, the job market and population growth is so radically different than 50 years ago, it doesn't make any sense whatsoever. It's like trying to make sense of a 50s Lakers to 2017 Warriors comparison.

For one thing, virtual teaching is here and real. I'm confident that I can get a better math/science education from Kahn's free online Academy than most of America's high schools.

But I'm not at all trying to throw schools and teachers under the bus. In fact more than ever, they are needed to orient the population. The systems just need modern re-hauls.

[dougthonus]

Well as someone in education... Did you mean the opposite? Cause I absolutely see a reason to teach biology, chemistry, physics, social studies and English past the 8th grade.

I can see a reason to teach them. Just a much better reason to teach other things. Many of them just go far beyond their useful level. I agree with your general point, you should start specializing in career based stuff at 16.

But I'm not at all trying to throw schools and teachers under the bus. In fact more than ever, they are needed to orient the population. The systems just need modern re-hauls.

Agree with this.

[Ccwatercraft]

That's sort of my point jmajew.

I think printing more money leads to inflation IF it's done uncontrollably and without any checks and balances.

But if managed correctly, it can spur on the economy and quickly restart the economic engine.

On money:

On of the things that turned the severe recession of 1929 into the great depression was money. We were on the gold standard, banks disappeared and people started hoarding cash. Money in circulation went to practically zero. As a result, it kicked off a deflationary cycle where goods went down in price. If you wait, you could buy what you want for less money. As prices dropped, companies had to cut expenses, further harming the economy which fed into the cycle.

Right now, everyone is hoarding cash. Due to fractional reserve banking, as people pay down debts and don't take on new ones, money in circulation literally evaporates. We have kicked off the same cycle that we had in the great depression.

Fortunately, the fed can come in and print money and then buy debt. They are replacing the money that has been pulled out of circulation with new money. That, hopefully, will stave off the deflationary cycle. If the economy turns around, the fed can merely accept the debt payments on the bonds that it purchased and burn the money to keep the money supply stable.

Unfortunately, we have this pandemic going on. People are literally not allowed to make goods and services of value. Prices are fundamentally set by the ratio of goods and services available to currency in circulation. As goods and services become more rare, you could kick off a venezuela style hyperinflation cycle.

We have a REALLY thin line to walk here. We are trying to balance between deflation and hyperinflation, either of which will cause a massive contraction in standard of living.

Overall, I think we are in deep, deep trouble.

This goes back to why UBI may not be a bad idea for a few months.

However, it should be strictly regulated.

So, you can only SPEND that money in that month on certain pre-set activities.

That would actually help the economy.

Activities I can think of are:

1) Child Care
2) Gas
3) Groceries
4) Utility Bill's ( Gas, Electric and Internet only)
5) Principal payments of mortgage

So my parents would submit receipts for electric, water, internet and $3700 worth of tuna?

[DuckIII]

Mr. Sparkle, I really enjoyed reading your thoughtful posts here and, Doug you too. Really interesting perspectives.

[Chi town]

Coding schools like Hack Reactor have popped up all over the place with 100% job placement and min starting salary of 80k for a 16 week program. You can pay up front or they take your money over a one year period after you get hired.

I’m saving for college funds for my 3 kids but I think the traditional college campus, dorm life, cap and gown is greatly modified and will only continue in the next 10 years.

Meanwhile AirBnB just laid off 25% of their workforce. Crazy, HQ is like 10 blocks from my house.

[AKfanatic]

Quick update for my Bulls fam....

My father has been in the hospital for the past week. The virus seemed to hit him really hard, he would lose his breathe after a couple minutes of talking, had zero appetite, and was very fatigued. The hospital put him on hydrochloroquine and stopped on the fourth day after it seemed to be doing more harm than good. He has seemed to improve somewhat, he’s regained an appetite... but his lungs don’t look good at all. They plan on attempting plasma treatments starting Monday. It’s a tough situation with him stuck in the hospital with zero visitation. Keeping fingers crossed.

It hit me really hard the past week. Like my father, I had zero appetite and became winded very easily. Mostly for me, it’s been fatigue. I find myself sleeping all day and all night. It’s like a flu on steroids that just won’t loosen its grip on me. I’ll have a few hours where I think “okay, I’m feeling better, maybe I’m finally getting over this” followed by more days of “flu”.....

This sh*t sucks and if you can take precautions to keep away from people and places that increase the chances of catching it, do so.

Anyways Bullsfam.... stay safe and take it easy.

Will update when time and energy allows.

[Dresden]

Quick update for my Bulls fam....

My father has been in the hospital for the past week. The virus seemed to hit him really hard, he would lose his breathe after a couple minutes of talking, had zero appetite, and was very fatigued. The hospital put him on hydrochloroquine and stopped on the fourth day after it seemed to be doing more harm than good. He has seemed to improve somewhat, he’s regained an appetite... but his lungs don’t look good at all. They plan on attempting plasma treatments starting Monday. It’s a tough situation with him stuck in the hospital with zero visitation. Keeping fingers crossed.

It hit me really hard the past week. Like my father, I had zero appetite and became winded very easily. Mostly for me, it’s been fatigue. I find myself sleeping all day and all night. It’s like a flu on steroids that just won’t loosen its grip on me. I’ll have a few hours where I think “okay, I’m feeling better, maybe I’m finally getting over this” followed by more days of “flu”.....

This sh*t sucks and if you can take precautions to keep away from people and places that increase the chances of catching it, do so.

Anyways Bullsfam.... stay safe and take it easy.

Will update when time and energy allows.

Thanks for the update AK. Hoping for the best for you and your dad. Keep us updated as you can. FWIW, I read that ginger tea is supposed to be helpful. Has to be fresh ginger root juice though, added to hot water, but not boiled. Good luck to you man.

[Dresden]

There certainly is a housing crisis in many big cities. Where I live (San Francisco) housing is unbelievably expensive, mainly because it's such a desirable place to live and its surrounded by water on 3 sides so space is limited. People being able to work remotely is not going to solve the problem. People prefer living in the city, as opposed to 50 miles outside of it, where it takes an hour to an hour and a half to get into the city to eat at a restaurant or see a concert, etc. And all the people who work at service jobs in the city (that aren't going to go away) need housing too.

No offense, but what you described there doesn't remotely sound like a crisis.

I don't know what your definition of a housing crisis is, but they've been describing our housing market here in SF as such for several decades now. People cannot afford to pay rent, let alone buy a house. Median 1 BR apt is something around 3K. To be able to afford a house in SF, you need to make around 250K. It especially hits low wage earners. How can you possibly afford housing on 40K a year, when you have to pay 36K on rent? Even split with a partner, it's very tough.

Any new housing that gets built is typically at market rate, which means unaffordable for lots and lots of people. The suburbs are cheaper, but not by that much.

[musiqsoulchild]

On money:

On of the things that turned the severe recession of 1929 into the great depression was money. We were on the gold standard, banks disappeared and people started hoarding cash. Money in circulation went to practically zero. As a result, it kicked off a deflationary cycle where goods went down in price. If you wait, you could buy what you want for less money. As prices dropped, companies had to cut expenses, further harming the economy which fed into the cycle.

Right now, everyone is hoarding cash. Due to fractional reserve banking, as people pay down debts and don't take on new ones, money in circulation literally evaporates. We have kicked off the same cycle that we had in the great depression.

Fortunately, the fed can come in and print money and then buy debt. They are replacing the money that has been pulled out of circulation with new money. That, hopefully, will stave off the deflationary cycle. If the economy turns around, the fed can merely accept the debt payments on the bonds that it purchased and burn the money to keep the money supply stable.

Unfortunately, we have this pandemic going on. People are literally not allowed to make goods and services of value. Prices are fundamentally set by the ratio of goods and services available to currency in circulation. As goods and services become more rare, you could kick off a venezuela style hyperinflation cycle.

We have a REALLY thin line to walk here. We are trying to balance between deflation and hyperinflation, either of which will cause a massive contraction in standard of living.

Overall, I think we are in deep, deep trouble.

This goes back to why UBI may not be a bad idea for a few months.

However, it should be strictly regulated.

So, you can only SPEND that money in that month on certain pre-set activities.

That would actually help the economy.

Activities I can think of are:

1) Child Care
2) Gas
3) Groceries
4) Utility Bill's ( Gas, Electric and Internet only)
5) Principal payments of mortgage

So my parents would submit receipts for electric, water, internet and $3700 worth of tuna?

Why would they get so much money?

UBI is a very basic living amount. I doubt it would be more than 1500 per household. With a sliding scale increment as the number of family members increase.

[DuckIII]

Thanks checking in AK. Your family is our thoughts.

[GimmeDat]

Quick update for my Bulls fam....

My father has been in the hospital for the past week. The virus seemed to hit him really hard, he would lose his breathe after a couple minutes of talking, had zero appetite, and was very fatigued. The hospital put him on hydrochloroquine and stopped on the fourth day after it seemed to be doing more harm than good. He has seemed to improve somewhat, he’s regained an appetite... but his lungs don’t look good at all. They plan on attempting plasma treatments starting Monday. It’s a tough situation with him stuck in the hospital with zero visitation. Keeping fingers crossed.

It hit me really hard the past week. Like my father, I had zero appetite and became winded very easily. Mostly for me, it’s been fatigue. I find myself sleeping all day and all night. It’s like a flu on steroids that just won’t loosen its grip on me. I’ll have a few hours where I think “okay, I’m feeling better, maybe I’m finally getting over this” followed by more days of “flu”.....

This sh*t sucks and if you can take precautions to keep away from people and places that increase the chances of catching it, do so.

Anyways Bullsfam.... stay safe and take it easy.

Will update when time and energy allows.

Thinking of you and your fam AK.

[dice]

simply incredible how many stupid people are out congregating today. mostly teenagers, but at the park near my apartment it was pretty ridiculous. groups of grown men talking in groups w/o masks, a woman letting her small child walk right up to a masked ice cream vendor (illegal?), etc.

[HomoSapien]

Quick update for my Bulls fam....

My father has been in the hospital for the past week. The virus seemed to hit him really hard, he would lose his breathe after a couple minutes of talking, had zero appetite, and was very fatigued. The hospital put him on hydrochloroquine and stopped on the fourth day after it seemed to be doing more harm than good. He has seemed to improve somewhat, he’s regained an appetite... but his lungs don’t look good at all. They plan on attempting plasma treatments starting Monday. It’s a tough situation with him stuck in the hospital with zero visitation. Keeping fingers crossed.

It hit me really hard the past week. Like my father, I had zero appetite and became winded very easily. Mostly for me, it’s been fatigue. I find myself sleeping all day and all night. It’s like a flu on steroids that just won’t loosen its grip on me. I’ll have a few hours where I think “okay, I’m feeling better, maybe I’m finally getting over this” followed by more days of “flu”.....

This sh*t sucks and if you can take precautions to keep away from people and places that increase the chances of catching it, do so.

Anyways Bullsfam.... stay safe and take it easy.

Will update when time and energy allows.

Beat the **** out of this, my man. Your pops too.

[The 6ft Hurdle]

simply incredible how many stupid people are out congregating today. mostly teenagers, but at the park near my apartment it was pretty ridiculous. groups of grown men talking in groups w/o masks, a woman letting her small child walk right up to a masked ice cream vendor (illegal?), etc.

I mean, look no further than our leadership... I think there's just too much information and disinformation for the average joe who hasn't experienced it, and a lot of people just follow the people around them

[Dresden]

simply incredible how many stupid people are out congregating today. mostly teenagers, but at the park near my apartment it was pretty ridiculous. groups of grown men talking in groups w/o masks, a woman letting her small child walk right up to a masked ice cream vendor (illegal?), etc.

I was just out for a walk and noticed the same thing. I counted a group of 12 young adults sitting in a tight circle in a park, none of them more than 3' apart from each other. It's probably not so bad outside, but still, be sensible people!

[Chi town]

simply incredible how many stupid people are out congregating today. mostly teenagers, but at the park near my apartment it was pretty ridiculous. groups of grown men talking in groups w/o masks, a woman letting her small child walk right up to a masked ice cream vendor (illegal?), etc.

This is why it’s going to cost us a lot more lives and most likely herd immunity before anything gets better.

[Chi town]

Quick update for my Bulls fam....

My father has been in the hospital for the past week. The virus seemed to hit him really hard, he would lose his breathe after a couple minutes of talking, had zero appetite, and was very fatigued. The hospital put him on hydrochloroquine and stopped on the fourth day after it seemed to be doing more harm than good. He has seemed to improve somewhat, he’s regained an appetite... but his lungs don’t look good at all. They plan on attempting plasma treatments starting Monday. It’s a tough situation with him stuck in the hospital with zero visitation. Keeping fingers crossed.

It hit me really hard the past week. Like my father, I had zero appetite and became winded very easily. Mostly for me, it’s been fatigue. I find myself sleeping all day and all night. It’s like a flu on steroids that just won’t loosen its grip on me. I’ll have a few hours where I think “okay, I’m feeling better, maybe I’m finally getting over this” followed by more days of “flu”.....

This sh*t sucks and if you can take precautions to keep away from people and places that increase the chances of catching it, do so.

Anyways Bullsfam.... stay safe and take it easy.

Will update when time and energy allows.

Hang in there AK! We are pulling for you. Need you and your pops in top form for this new era in Bulls basketball.