OT: Democratic Primary Thread

[HarthorneWingo]

I didn't forget. The country is just more outraged now.

Being an overt p*ssy grabbing white supremacist who let 123k people die on your watch (the equivalent of 40 9/11's) will do that.

And, like I said, the country is more polarized now. Trump himself has fanned those divisions.

Almost nothing that was a factor 16 years ago will hold any real comparison to today.

Of course, it's all relative. But at the time, Bush had pushed the envelope more than we've every imagined before just like Trump has today. Sure, in retrospect by comparison Trump is much worse. It's still not a sound strategy for running a campaign and winning a presidential election. You have to agree with that, right?

Well, Biden's lead is almost triple the largest lead Kerry had at any point in 2004, so I think the strategy is fine. We don't need Joe Biden to be anything other than seeming like a decent person. That's it. That's all most people really want this time around.

I think people forget 2 things:

1. Hillary was wildy unpopular and possibly as polarizing to R's and Trump is to D's.
2. Trump lost the popular vote by 3M and is President today because of 80,000 votes across 3 states.

Trump is not some juggernaut. Quite a few anomalies had to line up for him to win by the slimmest of margins. Now, the cards are very much stacked against him.

He's someone that any generic Dem should beat, and Joe Biden is as generic as a Democrat can get.

That's not to say I'm relaxed or confident. Obviously a lot can happen between now and November.

I'm just calling it as I see it. I think a literal empty suit would have a polling lead on Trump right now. The candidate doesn't matter. Trump is the only thing driving people right now.

I'll ask you the same question I asked to Stannis: Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated between now and November?

I don't think Joe Biden keeping a low profile or fumbling his words will affect anyone's answer.

Dude, Biden's favorables are at 26%. It's all about Trump hate which is what I've been saying. No one is enthused about Biden. The mofo wanted to cut Medicare and Social Security. He voted for the Iraq War. He sides with banks and credit card companies. He sucks. He just doesn't suck nearly as bad as Trump. Yes, I'm enthused about getting Trump out of office and in jail. But I am not enthused about a Biden presidency.

[GONYK]

Of course, it's all relative. But at the time, Bush had pushed the envelope more than we've every imagined before just like Trump has today. Sure, in retrospect by comparison Trump is much worse. It's still not a sound strategy for running a campaign and winning a presidential election. You have to agree with that, right?

Well, Biden's lead is almost triple the largest lead Kerry had at any point in 2004, so I think the strategy is fine. We don't need Joe Biden to be anything other than seeming like a decent person. That's it. That's all most people really want this time around.

I think people forget 2 things:

1. Hillary was wildy unpopular and possibly as polarizing to R's and Trump is to D's.
2. Trump lost the popular vote by 3M and is President today because of 80,000 votes across 3 states.

Trump is not some juggernaut. Quite a few anomalies had to line up for him to win by the slimmest of margins. Now, the cards are very much stacked against him.

He's someone that any generic Dem should beat, and Joe Biden is as generic as a Democrat can get.

That's not to say I'm relaxed or confident. Obviously a lot can happen between now and November.

I'm just calling it as I see it. I think a literal empty suit would have a polling lead on Trump right now. The candidate doesn't matter. Trump is the only thing driving people right now.

I'll ask you the same question I asked to Stannis: Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated between now and November?

I don't think Joe Biden keeping a low profile or fumbling his words will affect anyone's answer.

Dude, Biden's favorables are at 26%. It's all about Trump hate which is what I've been saying. No one is enthused about Biden. The mofo wanted to cut Medicare and Social Security. He voted for the Iraq War. He sides with banks and credit card companies. He sucks. He just doesn't suck nearly as bad as Trump. Yes, I'm enthused about getting Trump out of office and in jail. But I am not enthused about a Biden presidency.

I'm not sure what point you're making. I think we agree that you don't need to be enthused for Biden to vote against Trump.

People don't have to like Biden. Just vote for him. You enthusiastically want Trump out. As long as people feel like you, it's all good. Biden can win this way.

The reasons you win an election are irrelevant. Winning is all that matters.

[HarthorneWingo]

Well, Biden's lead is almost triple the largest lead Kerry had at any point in 2004, so I think the strategy is fine. We don't need Joe Biden to be anything other than seeming like a decent person. That's it. That's all most people really want this time around.

I think people forget 2 things:

1. Hillary was wildy unpopular and possibly as polarizing to R's and Trump is to D's.
2. Trump lost the popular vote by 3M and is President today because of 80,000 votes across 3 states.

Trump is not some juggernaut. Quite a few anomalies had to line up for him to win by the slimmest of margins. Now, the cards are very much stacked against him.

He's someone that any generic Dem should beat, and Joe Biden is as generic as a Democrat can get.

That's not to say I'm relaxed or confident. Obviously a lot can happen between now and November.

I'm just calling it as I see it. I think a literal empty suit would have a polling lead on Trump right now. The candidate doesn't matter. Trump is the only thing driving people right now.

I'll ask you the same question I asked to Stannis: Do you think Trump will become significantly more competent or less hated between now and November?

I don't think Joe Biden keeping a low profile or fumbling his words will affect anyone's answer.

Dude, Biden's favorables are at 26%. It's all about Trump hate which is what I've been saying. No one is enthused about Biden. The mofo wanted to cut Medicare and Social Security. He voted for the Iraq War. He sides with banks and credit card companies. He sucks. He just doesn't suck nearly as bad as Trump. Yes, I'm enthused about getting Trump out of office and in jail. But I am not enthused about a Biden presidency.

I'm not sure what point you're making. I think we agree that you don't need to be enthused for Biden to vote against Trump.

People don't have to like Biden. Just vote for him. You enthusiastically want Trump out. As long as people feel like you, it's all good. Biden can win this way.

The reasons you win an election are irrelevant. Winning is all that matters.

[Bulls69]

Wasn't Hillary up by close to the same in '16?

According to the archived version of 538's 2016 coverage, their national polling average had Hillary up 42.9% - 36.5% (net of 6.4%) compared to the current 50.9% - 41.3% (net of 9.6%, and maybe more importantly, Biden already being above 50%). Hillary peaked at 46.0%, so Biden is already comfortably past her in that regard.

They need to make voters feel uncomfortable. Last thing the dems need is voters staying home because they think they got this in the bag.

The Dems must come out in drove come Nov they need the White House,The Senate, and also keep the house

[Bulls69]

That's not what I would call a "comfortable lead" by any stretch.

Well just to add some context, Obama defeated Romney by only a 4% margin of the popular vote and defeated McCain by 7% and I'm not quite sure anyone said those elections were in doubt for Obama. Yes, Hillary Clinton had a margin of 2%, but it was really the less than 80,000 voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that lost her the election. So "comfortable lead" nationally for Biden, but of course in general elections, it always comes down to a few states.

All that said, yes, keep up the pressure. November is still so far away. Let angry and disgruntled Republicans like The Lincoln Project continue to use GOP candidates' words, actions, and inactions against them. GOP needs to not only lose the White House, but the Senate as well along with losing more House seats.

I think we really need to stay away from the national polls. They mean nothing.

I saw a poll tonight on Hayes’s show. Biden only up 1% on Trump in Ohio. I haven’t seen the other updated battleground state polls but I understand that the NY Time is coming out with one tomorrow.

That's actually good news for Biden in Ohio Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 Bloomberg is going to carpet bomb the battle ground states for Biden.

[HarthorneWingo]

Well just to add some context, Obama defeated Romney by only a 4% margin of the popular vote and defeated McCain by 7% and I'm not quite sure anyone said those elections were in doubt for Obama. Yes, Hillary Clinton had a margin of 2%, but it was really the less than 80,000 voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that lost her the election. So "comfortable lead" nationally for Biden, but of course in general elections, it always comes down to a few states.

All that said, yes, keep up the pressure. November is still so far away. Let angry and disgruntled Republicans like The Lincoln Project continue to use GOP candidates' words, actions, and inactions against them. GOP needs to not only lose the White House, but the Senate as well along with losing more House seats.

I think we really need to stay away from the national polls. They mean nothing.

I saw a poll tonight on Hayes’s show. Biden only up 1% on Trump in Ohio. I haven’t seen the other updated battleground state polls but I understand that the NY Time is coming out with one tomorrow.

That's actually good news for Biden in Ohio Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 Bloomberg is going to carpet bomb the battle ground states for Biden.

Let's hope Trump keeps burying himself like he has been. Trump focusing on statues of dead confederates instead of COVID is like Nero fiddling while Rome burned.

My sphincter could be beat Trump in this election. Seriously.

[HarthorneWingo]

According to the archived version of 538's 2016 coverage, their national polling average had Hillary up 42.9% - 36.5% (net of 6.4%) compared to the current 50.9% - 41.3% (net of 9.6%, and maybe more importantly, Biden already being above 50%). Hillary peaked at 46.0%, so Biden is already comfortably past her in that regard.

They need to make voters feel uncomfortable. Last thing the dems need is voters staying home because they think they got this in the bag.

The Dems must come out in drove come Nov they need the White House,The Senate, and also keep the house

Preaching to the choir, my man. We, here, seem to have slight differences of opinion on how best to accomplish that.

Join the party! We need a midwest correspondent.

[Bulls69]

I still think Biden has got the momentum way too early. I don't think he can keep it going.

Dude, Trump is going to regret only appeasing his base which is about 36% of the voters he is pissing off the independs , moderate GOP's, and the sub. white women.

[Bulls69]

I think we really need to stay away from the national polls. They mean nothing.

I saw a poll tonight on Hayes’s show. Biden only up 1% on Trump in Ohio. I haven’t seen the other updated battleground state polls but I understand that the NY Time is coming out with one tomorrow.

That's actually good news for Biden in Ohio Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 Bloomberg is going to carpet bomb the battle ground states for Biden.

Let's hope Trump keeps burying himself like he has been. Trump focusing on statues of dead confederates instead of COVID is like Nero fiddling while Rome burned.

My sphincter could be beat Trump in this election. Seriously.

The virus is going to be his down fall Trump needs to pull the some democrats talk like that is not helping him.

[HarthorneWingo]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/politics/russia-ransomware-coronavirus-work-home.html

Russian Criminal Group Finds New Target: Americans Working at Home

A hacking group calling itself Evil Corp., indicted in December, has shown up in corporate networks with sophisticated ransomware. American officials worry election infrastructure could be next.

[Fat Kat]

Read on Twitter

[HarthorneWingo]

Read on Twitter

Everything Trump does from here until November has two main objectives:

1. Steal as much money from us as possible

2. Win re-election

[HarthorneWingo]

NY Times:

Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill Troops, U.S. Intelligence Says

The Trump administration has been deliberating for months about what, if anything, to do about an explosive intelligence assessment.

[HarthorneWingo]

This is a little better

Watch on YouTube

[Strick]

NY Times:

Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill Troops, U.S. Intelligence Says

The Trump administration has been deliberating for months about what, if anything, to do about an explosive intelligence assessment.

This is a ridiculous, yet not surprising. Known about it since March and has not done anything about it. While he chats with him earlier this month and wants to get Russia in the G7?

[HarthorneWingo]

For those who don’t know, George Kirby was a black comedian and actor from back in the day.

Watch on YouTube

[Clyde_Style]

This is a little better

Watch on YouTube

I think one of the lessons of this Trump era is Americans are heavily influenced by social signals from the president.

Joe is correct of course, but until Trump is gone we're still going to have at least a third of America acting like this virus has nothing to do with them.

I happen to have the good fortune of being in a state where perhaps 80% of the population thinks this doesn't apply to them. Two months ago, maybe 20-30% of shoppers at the local Wal-Mart had masks on. Two weeks ago it was down to 10%.

People here just don't give a chit about each other unfortunately and I have encountered almost universal ignorance on the need to use PPE whenever I've spoken to people here. And the reasoning is stuff like they don't know anybody on Facebook who has died from Covid or they are not sick and their friends aren't sick. I talked to a guy with a moving company and 15 employees and he said it was a hoax used to defeat Trump. On and on and on like this.

The reality is most Floridians do not consume news thoughtfully, they do not look at covid databases, they get their political reality from word of mouth, Facebook and Fox news.

Florida is not California or NYC, but it is closer to what the majority of the geographical U.S. thought until recently. That may change now as their buddies get sick and die, but that's what it is going to take to get this society to wake the F up. Trump had an enormous influence on how this played out even if all of us here see him as a ludicrous human being.

Just because more than half of the country is now willing to vote him out is not cause for confidence. We had to have a pandemic and economic disaster just to get the polls to really move hard in the correct direction.

And that also means getting elected this time is actually not about Enthusiasm ratings (Trump and Biden have identical 26% favorability ratings within the question sets of some polls; but nobody hates Biden like people hate Trump). It is far more about how deeply lazy and ignorant many Americans are and how it takes massive disasters to wake them out of their slumber and why the influence of the president is actually so critical for the direction of our society.

This election is about dumping Trump, but it is now also about having a decent minded, reasonable president you can actually trust with your damn life, not just the economy or every other critical issue. For that reason, some Trump voters will now be voting for Biden, but it took real calamity for that to happen.

Biden is going to win because Trump is so awful. That is less an indictment of Joe not being the best choice to be prez and more an indictment of how ignorant and lazy a large amount of Americans are. This is a pretty damn selfish country and having the most selfish president imaginable tank our nation is what it took to shine a mirror in the face of some of these sleepwalkers. They're becoming scared for their health and their income and now that they are directly affected by the correlation between Trump's stupidity and their own, they'll dump Trump since he is easy to blame even if they go back into slumber mode.

[Clyde_Style]

NY Times:

Russia Secretly Offered Afghan Militants Bounties to Kill Troops, U.S. Intelligence Says

The Trump administration has been deliberating for months about what, if anything, to do about an explosive intelligence assessment.

This is a ridiculous, yet not surprising. Known about it since March and has not done anything about it. While he chats with him earlier this month and wants to get Russia in the G7?

This may turn into the scandal Trump can't deflect with his usual distractions, because (a) Trump is so weak now, (b) this looks to be the kind of easy to consume news story that proves Trump's allegiance with Putin and (c) it is about troops at risk.

Combine (b) and (c) = pissed off "patriots" even Trumpers.

My speculation of the moment is how widely leaked this story was around the Pentagon. My guess is this intel made the rounds which would explain why so many generals and admirals made a public display of lining up behind Biden for this election. I saw a major military defection in progress and I thought it was about more than teargassing peaceful demonstrators. Just a hunch, but something has been gnawing at the guts of military leadership for a while now and this is a death blow to Trump's support among military leadership even if some of the soldiers remain Trumpy.

[HarthorneWingo]

This is a little better

Watch on YouTube

I think one of the lessons of this Trump era is Americans are heavily influenced by social signals from the president.

Joe is correct of course, but until Trump is gone we're still going to have at least a third of America acting like this virus has nothing to do with them.

I happen to have the good fortune of being in a state where perhaps 80% of the population thinks this doesn't apply to them. Two months ago, maybe 20-30% of shoppers at the local Wal-Mart had masks on. Two weeks ago it was down to 10%.

People here just don't give a chit about each other unfortunately and I have encountered almost universal ignorance on the need to use PPE whenever I've spoken to people here. And the reasoning is stuff like they don't know anybody on Facebook who has died from Covid or they are not sick and their friends aren't sick. I talked to a guy with a moving company and 15 employees and he said it was a hoax used to defeat Trump. On and on and on like this.

The reality is most Floridians do not consume news thoughtfully, they do not look at covid databases, they get their political reality from word of mouth, Facebook and Fox news.

Florida is not California or NYC, but it is closer to what the majority of the geographical U.S. thought until recently. That may change now as their buddies get sick and die, but that's what it is going to take to get this society to wake the F up. Trump had an enormous influence on how this played out even if all of us here see him as a ludicrous human being.

Just because more than half of the country is now willing to vote him out is not cause for confidence. We had to have a pandemic and economic disaster just to get the polls to really move hard in the correct direction.

And that also means getting elected this time is actually not about Enthusiasm ratings (Trump and Biden have identical 26% favorability ratings within the question sets of some polls; but nobody hates Biden like people hate Trump). It is far more about how deeply lazy and ignorant many Americans are and how it takes massive disasters to wake them out of their slumber and why the influence of the president is actually so critical for the direction of our society.

This election is about dumping Trump, but it is now also about having a decent minded, reasonable president you can actually trust with your damn life, not just the economy or every other critical issue. For that reason, some Trump voters will now be voting for Biden, but it took real calamity for that to happen.

Biden is going to win because Trump is so awful. That is less an indictment of Joe not being the best choice to be prez and more an indictment of how ignorant and lazy a large amount of Americans are. This is a pretty damn selfish country and having the most selfish president imaginable tank our nation is what it took to shine a mirror in the face of some of these sleepwalkers. They're becoming scared for their health and their income and now that they are directly affected by the correlation between Trump's stupidity and their own, they'll dump Trump since he is easy to blame even if they go back into slumber mode.

I think Joe sees the handwriting on the wall. We all know the he's suffered real loss in his life. I think that the destruction of the fabric of our country affects him greatly. I can't take this chit anymore with the most destructive and evil human being we've ever seen during our lives.

[Clyde_Style]

I think Joe sees the handwriting on the wall. We all know the he's suffered real loss in his life. I think that the destruction of the fabric of our country affects him greatly. I can't take this chit anymore with the most destructive and evil human being we've ever seen during our lives.

I know Joe likes to sniff women and children, but I'm pretty forgiving as long as it isn't actual predatory behavior. I think it is a fetish impulse or something, but aside from that I really see nothing about him that screams ahole. He does not strike me as a BS artist when it comes to showing compassion. He seems genuine. I actually like him as a person and that does matter to me. Maybe he's a better person now because of his experiences. Time does make some people better humans.

And I think enough of the country is starting to realize he is a decent guy and how much that is in short supply in Washington, D.C. Trump is pretty much the prototype for worst human being in existence so he made decency a decisive issue in this election and that is why Biden may be a better choice than some gave him credit for. Not saying the other candidates were indecent, but it is a quality where Biden comes through loud and clear and this country is going to need that.