Lowe on the Bucks' most interesting lineup:
Giannis Antetokounmpo at center: 260 minutes, plus-140 (L-O-L)
Maybe the Bucks won't need this tool. Maybe they won't face an opponent who punishes their drop-back defense -- centered in most lineups by a Lopez brother -- with pull-up 3s and pick-and-pops. Toronto busted through in last season's conference finals, but the main driver of that is now a Clipper.
Brook Lopez has gotten better scurrying around the arc. No Eastern Conference contender has a pick-and-pop center that strikes fear into the Bucks.
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But Marc Gasol -- 40% from deep -- comes close, and still screens for Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. Boston is perhaps the league's best pull-up jump-shooting team, with Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum raining fire. They are sitting on a centerless lineup that could stretch Lopez thin: Walker, Tatum, Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown. (In fairness, Lopez has squashed little guys in the post on the other end when opponents go small.)
Most Antetokounmpo-at-center lineups trend small, with Khris Middleton as nominal power forward. (I'm not counting groups featuring Ersan Ilyasova.) That's why Milwaukee's February acquisition of Marvin Williams intrigued: Were they adding size to these lineups without sacrificing speed (as they do with Ilyasova)?
The touchstone of Milwaukee's offense is the same regardless of lineup configuration: Antetokounmpo and shooting. But without Lopez, the Bucks amp up the pace and use more varied screening combinations. Antetokounmpo sets 15 ball screens per 100 possessions with Lopez on the floor, and 22 in centerless groups, per Second Spectrum. Also: Lopez has hit just 29.6% from deep this season. Williams is at 36%, and has drained at least 43% on corner 3s in four of the past six seasons. Guess where Mike Budenholzer likes to put him?
The centerless Bucks might have Kyle Korver or some other shooter screen for Antetokounmpo, and fly into open space:
They might pair two shaky shooters (Eric Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo) or their two best players (Antetokounmpo and Middleton) in pick-and-rolls.
When defenses adjust, the Bucks hunt the weak link elsewhere.
Interestingly, these lineups have lived at the rim. About 42% of their shots have come at the basket, a share that would lead all teams, per Cleaning The Glass. They generate heaps of free throws and offensive rebounds -- unusual for the Bucks. Basically, they are smaller lineups that play like bigger ones thanks to speed and spacing. They haven't sacrificed anything on the defensive glass, perhaps because opponents downsize too.
Smart defenses will barricade those paths to the rim by abandoning Milwaukee's weakest shooter -- as the Heat do against Donte DiVincenzo (34% on 3s) below:
The Raptors ignored Bledsoe. Against the best competition, Milwaukee might want to minimize the time Antetokounmpo plays with two or more of its so-so shooters. These lineups represent one pathway there.