casual_raps_fan wrote:ATLTimekeeper wrote:Indeed wrote:
Hmm, even McDaniels could be a role player. Definitely not at OG/Siakam level, while he maybe comparable to Boucher, where they contribute better on different area. Boucher with his 7'4 wingspan would be more 3+D, while McDaniels with his 7'1 wingspan may rely more on his ball penetration and isolation, but both of them seem to be below average passer (lack of vision).
Yes, he doesn't/hasn't scored enough where I'd buy that he could develop into a star at the pro level.
I have a couple of beliefs about the late first/2nd round. 1)
It's rare to get even competent rotational players in this range. It's exceptionally rare to get stars. Typically, the players that do end up stars drafted in this range could score at above average volume at their previous level. The exceptions are players from pro levels (like Europe). 2) The guys that stick tend to be more mature/older players because the upside players in this range typically can't get on the court and then get lost in the numbers game. There's a draft every year, and the hype from being a rookie quickly disappears by the following draft. Teams just don't have the minutes or patience.
The Raptors job here is to make sure they get an NBA player out of this pick, not to suss out a diamond in the rough that could be a star by measuring arm length or shot creation or anything like that. Most of these guys won't have the ability to contribute at all. So the first question is 1) Can he get on the floor in year 1? and then 2) What weaknesses are easiest to remedy?
I don't think this is true for the Raptors at all. Since Masai has come, the only non rotation player we've drafted in the 1st round is Bruno. Aside from him, we've selected Delon Wright, Poeltl, Siakam, OG. Even if we take Poeltl out of the equation since he was a lottery pick, we are still 3 of 4. When you take into account that our development program has improved and we've built a culture emphasizing player development, I think it's very likely that we at least get a rotation player.
Any other team not named the Spurs or Heat, I can agree with that point though.
So you do agree with me. The Raptors have done their job by targeting players that can get on the floor or have easy to remedy weaknesses in that range. The odds are still stacked against them.
After Delon, only 10 rotation players selected in the next 40 picks. After Norm, 0. Only one close to being a significant player is Harrell.
After Pascal, only 5 players can be considered rotation pieces in 33 picks. One of those is Patrick McCaw.
After OG, only 8 rotation players in the next 37 picks.
And then add in TD and Fred. The Raptors have been really good at finding these players, but there's only a small handful of starters that have been selected after their picks over the past 5 drafts.
It's more just a way of putting it all in perspective. Even the teams that draft these players in this range that end up becoming something aren't expecting that result. And the results tend to be unlikely. Siakam, Jokic and Brogdan being the biggest stars from that range over the last 6 drafts. Not one of them was selected as an "upside pick."