Comparing the 2020-21 Wizards to the 2016-17 Wizards

[nate33]

Both teams suck. The fact that it's worth making a new thread about this tells you how much this franchise stinks.

Sorry...I'm drunk in Mexico. Excuse my poor attempt at a constructive post.

A very poor attempt

[TGW]

Both teams suck. The fact that it's worth making a new thread about this tells you how much this franchise stinks.

Sorry...I'm drunk in Mexico. Excuse my poor attempt at a constructive post.

A very poor attempt .

I know. Don’t text when drunk.

But to answer your original post, i think Gortat vs Bryant is really the difference between the two teams. Gortat was Uber-consistent and kept his dud games to a minimum. I don’t know if the stats show this, but my overall impression is that Bryant offsets his dud games with ridiculously efficient games. I wasn’t a fan of gortat because of his defensive limitations, but you knew what you were getting every night. He was a steady producer. I don’t have that type of faith in Bryant.

And needless to say, but the 2020 Wall is going to be bad. Just looking at players who suffered a similar injury, those players always needed 2-3 seasons before they were actually able to play at a high level.

[doclinkin]

⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️ Well done...

My take is it is about the best three players. Wall < 2016; Beal > 2016; Anyone else < Porter.

Add to that the east is stronger and the league is better. So, I don't think we get the same win total.

One factor being overlooked:

Tommy >>> Ernie MF Grunfeld

So this... which means we could get someone good in the draft. And one thing I didn't say, one of the youngsters could bust out.

And trade and free agency. And right, I'm thinking good things are coming from Bonga and the bench and back-ups. Plus in Ish Smith we finally have a starter quality back-up point. I know the team is expecting TBJ to develop into that role, and okay, maybe, shrug, but with Ish we have minimal drop-off when we go to the bench here, which means the team is not required to play both Wall and Beal 40+ minutes a game. Depth matters.

We have holes in the roster for sure, and it is yet to be seen if we retain Bertans, but considering we had turnover amounting to an entire team since the last GM (Beal, Wall, the 2 TBJ's. Who else is left from the Ernie era?) we have to expect this team may see other dynamic moves before we step back and say 'this is our roster'. We haven't had an offseason yet.

[payitforward]

We don't know that Bertans will be on the Wizards, but even if he is, even with him, we have exactly 8 guys right now who have shown they can play in the NBA at some level that at least keeps you in the league (i.e. from minimally passable to really good): Wall, Beal, Brown, Bryant, Bonga, Rui, Davis & Ish.

So, how can anyone predict anything? It's a ridiculous idea! We don't know who half the team will be! On top of that, we have John coming back after essentially two years off.

Let's say we put Mathews on the regular roster, & he plays well -- the way he played in 200+ minutes this year. Let's say we come out of the draft with 2 really good prospects -- maybe 3.

You know what we'll have done? What that will mean?

It'll mean that we have continued our rebuild! That's what it will mean. Because, that is what we are doing. The Washington Wizards are rebuilding.

How many guys will be on the team who were on the team when the season ended in March 2018? Two players. Wall & Beal.

If you don't think that is "rebuilding" I'd really like to hear how you define the term!

[dckingsfan]

↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ - So, that means you think we will win more games

[payitforward]

If John comes back strong & stays healthy for the season, then obviously we will win more games than this year! If he is back to his old self, his presence could easily make an 8-10 game difference.

[payitforward]

Whatever our record, we are STILL a rebuilding team.

If you only have four guys who were at the end of the previous season (2018-19)...
...If you only have two guys who were with you two seasons ago...
...you are rebuilding.

If both those things are true & you just had a 30-win season, which followed a 32-win season...
...you are a rebuilding team.

If, in addition to that, you actually only have 8 players under contract (& 1 whose option we'll pick up) -- 3 of whom have by no means shown anything to make you think they can last in the league (let alone actually be good players!) -- plus 1 2-way player who might be promising...
...you are rebuilding.

The total of our current assets that anyone would give at least a R2 pick for in a trade:
John Wall, Brad Beal, Thomas Bryant, Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Isaac Bonga.

Somebody may wish to point to Jerome Robinson. Worth being reminded that we just got him straight-up for IT, whom the Clippers promptly waived. I.e. they gave him to us for nothing. Nobody offered more. That's what he's worth as an asset.

We are rebuilding more or less from the ground up; we've kept John & Brad. That's it.

[WizarDynasty]

PIF.. Agreed on Otto, though you could combine Bonga + Bertans and get about the same Total minutes as Otto and have an interesting Comp due to Bonga's efficiency and defense....

I love Bonga. I liked him in the '18 draft, & I like him more now. I think he's going to be a really good player. But, no, man, no. We can't make some amalgam of Bertans & Bonga & make it look anything like Otto Porter's tip top best year.

As for Rui (And Otto, Brown, Bryant), we can only go by what they did last year... But I think another year together in conjunction with their youth and better supporting cast lend me to believe we'll see quite an improvement.

How'd you get Otto back on the team!!

I'm very positive on Thomas Bryant & Troy Brown. Brown is a terrific prospect -- incredibly young & already significantly improved. I hope for him to become a truly outstanding NBA player in the next few years. As to Bryant, I think he's a tremendous prospect too. There's work to do, & maybe there are some defensive limitations that won't be overcome easily, but even with those I still think he's a great prospect: I wouldn't rule out an All Star game for Thomas Bryant.

Rui is just a big question mark. So far, he hasn't been good. Period. He hasn't looked like bust who can't play in the league -- not saying that! But, he hasn't looked good. I'll be surprised if he doesn't have a better 2d year better than his rookie year. Disappointed too.

But, being "better" is not the same as being "good." As soon as he's actually good, then continuing improvement will begin to mean more. If it happens.

But, none of this -- even with the most optimistic results -- amounts to saying we'll be a good team in the coming season. It would require a miracle -- more than one! -- for that to become true.

Right now, we have 6 players who really matter to the Wizards: Wall, Beal, Bryant, Brown, Bonga & Rui. We also have an interesting question mark in Garrison Mathews. 4 other guys (Wagner, Robinson, Schofield & Pasecniks) haven't shown they can play in the slightest. I'd trade Wagner for any R2 pick in this draft. I'd let Pasecniks option go without a second thought. I'd be shocked if we could get anything at all for Robinson. I'd waive Schofield & eat his salary so that he can get on with his life, because NBA player is not something he is going to be.

6 guys. That's it. Maybe 7 if we are lucky in Mathews. & we have a solid chance to re-sign Bertans. If so, 8. We also have a veteran journeyman in Ish Smith. He's not core to the team, but he'll be there this year. Plus, we have 2 draft picks. If they're both players, & if Mathews is a hit, & if we re-sign Bertans -- that's 10 guys plus Ish for a year.

I'd call that a rebuilding team.

I am sorry, Thomas Bryant is a bench player. Gortat could run the floor like a deer at his best--but yes, Gortat also did have alot of functional athleticism, he was an upright player that couldn't drop and maintain a low center of gravity with balance for long period of time while dribbling, Bryant runs like he a sprained ankle every time i see him. No burst wants so ever with Bryant. He isn't explosive in the paint, and he can't maintain a low center of gravity to take advantage of his bulk. These are issues that coaches can't fix. As long as he is starting, the wizards will be trash. He is ok to bring off the bench but he is way to slow footed to set good picks, and no explosive feet when maneuvering in the paint and fighting for rebounds, and he can't rise over people and shoot hooks shot with one hand close to the rim. That's a center most effective shot. He is testament that Brooks really doesn't have eye for talent with getting diamonds in the rough. People are attracted to his three point shooting and floor stretching, but if he doesn't have the fundamentals like explosive feet movement and being able to maintain a low center of gravity with his bulk for long durations, who cares if the car has shiny rims. Who cares if you have shiny big mack truck on the outside, that engine breaks down when it has to haul heavy tractors. Bryant is not wearing down undersized front courts, catching all of beals long range missed three pointers, and he isn't clearing the lane by leveraging his man out of the paint to create easy driving lanes for guards.
Leonsis has to get a talent evaluator that recognizes true hip bend-- low center of gravity athleticism. Until the top recognizes it, he won't hire the right people to scout for it. Rui basically fell into his hands, but none of the second round picks or free agent picks up, have great low center of gravity athleticism and handles combined. low center of gravity means, bending knees and hips for extended period while performing explosive basketball movements like driving, stopping and your momentum, and then accelerating while keeping your hips and knees bent the "entire time". None of washington's long list of bigs that were drafted outside Rui, have had this ability and none of the free agents, or dleague players, or whomever they have traded for.

[nate33]

Prompted by a post by NatP4 on Eastern Conference thread, I thought it might be worth it to bump this thread.

How do the 2021 Wizards compare with the 2017 Wizards now that we have Westbrook and Lopez?

I figure Westbrook isn't quite as good as 2017 Wall (2nd team All-NBA) but he might be pretty close. 2021 Beal is better than 2017 Beal. And the rest of the supporting cast is pretty comparable except that Bertans isn't as good as Porter and the current bench is much deeper than the 2017 team.

If the 2017 Wizards won 49 games, can't the current Wizards do about the same? Or maybe even a bit better? Why are we talking about the 7th or 8th seed and not the 4th or 5th seed?

[NatP4]

Wall Burke/Jennings
Beal Satoransky/Thornton
Porter Bogdanovic/Oubre
Morris Smith
Gortat Mahinmi

Westbrook Smith/Neto
Beal Brown Jr
Bonga Avdija
Hachimura Bertans
Bryant Lopez/Wagner

[Frichuela]

Prompted by a post by NatP4 on Eastern Conference thread, I thought it might be worth it to bump this thread.

How do the 2021 Wizards compare with the 2017 Wizards now that we have Westbrook?

I figure Westbrook isn't quite as good as 2017 Wall (2nd team All-NBA) but he might be pretty close. 2021 Beal is better than 2017 Beal. And the rest of the supporting cast is pretty comparable except that Bertans isn't as good as Porter and the current bench is much deeper than the 2017 team.

If the 2017 Wizards won 49 games, can't the current Wizards do about the same? Or maybe even a bit better? Why are we talking about the 7th or 8th seed and not the 4th or 5th seed?

I think a key point is that the East is stronger than 4 years ago. It was not long ago that it was relatively easy to be the 6-8 seed in the East.

Otherwise, I liker this roster better. Why? the promise of youth!

Let's see:

*PG Wall 2017 vs Westbrook 2021. I agree that peak Wall was probably better than Westbrook at 32 years of age. But if Russ improves his performance at Houston last year (where he was a poor fit), it may be that the difference is not significant during playoff play and Westbrook is probably better during regular season play (less likely to take days off against lesser competition).
*SG Beal 2017 vs Beal 2021. No contest, Beal is a much better player today.
*SF Porter 2017 vs Avdija/Bonga 2021. The opposite to Beal, (peak) Porter was likely to be much better than what rookie Deni (or Bonga) could provide this season. Now, I believe Avdija has the potential to have a better career than Porter, why? Personality/character.
*PF Morris 2017 vs Hachimura 2021. I think this is a wash, even though Kieff was 27-28 vs. Rui 22-23. And, again, I believe Rui will have a better career than Keef.
*C Gortat 2017 vs Bryant 2021. Another wash, although Bryant has greater potential to exceed Marcin's ceiling down the line.
*6th Man Bogdanovic 2017 vs Bertans 2021. Another wash.
*7th Man Oubre 2017 vs Troy Brown 2021. I think Troy is already better than Oubre was 4 years ago.
*8-12th Men Jennings/Sato/Mahinmi/Jason Smith/Sheldon Mac vs Ish/Lopez/Bonga (or Advija)/Wagner/Robinson. Probably a wash, but I like our bench better now.
*Coach Brooks vs Brooks...has Scotty learned something? Jokes aside, he is more likely to coach better Russ than Wall...we shall see...

[NatP4]

If John comes back strong & stays healthy for the season, then obviously we will win more games than this year! If he is back to his old self, his presence could easily make an 8-10 game difference.

what if John magically turns into Russell Westbrook??

[nate33]

Wall Burke/Jennings
Beal Satoransky/Thornton
Porter Bogdanovic/Oubre
Morris Smith
Gortat Mahinmi

Westbrook Smith/Neto
Beal Brown Jr
Bonga Avdija
Hachimura Bertans
Bryant Lopez/Wagner

I think the head-to-head player comps should go like this:
Westbrook < Wall
Beal 2021 > Beal 2017
Bertans < Porter
Hachimura = Morris
Bryant = Gortat

Ish > Burke/Jennings
Brown > Satoransky
Avdija << Bogdanovic
Bonga > Oubre
Lopez > Mahinmi/Smith

Basically, our starting lineup is a bit worse because Porter is better than Bertans, and our benches are about the same because Bogdanovic's significant superiority over Avidja probably offsets the 2021 team advantage at every other bench position.

[NatP4]

Wall Burke/Jennings
Beal Satoransky/Thornton
Porter Bogdanovic/Oubre
Morris Smith
Gortat Mahinmi

Westbrook Smith/Neto
Beal Brown Jr
Bonga Avdija
Hachimura Bertans
Bryant Lopez/Wagner

I think the head-to-head player comps should go like this:
Westbrook < Wall
Beal 2021 > Beal 2017
Bertans < Porter
Hachimura = Morris
Bryant = Gortat

Ish > Burke/Jennings
Brown > Satoransky
Avdija << Bogdanovic
Bonga > Oubre
Lopez > Mahinmi/Smith

Basically, our starting lineup is a bit worse because Porter is better than Bertans, and our benches are about the same because Bogdanovic's significant superiority over Avidja probably offsets the 2021 team advantage at every other bench position.

this is tough because Avdija is surely not going to be counted on to be a 6th man microwave scorer that the offense is run through like Bogdanovic was. Avdija is more of that fringe young player that nothing is expected of, like Satoransky was. Avdija will probably be better than Sato was in 2017, and Brown or Bertans vs Bogdanovic is a good comparison that is much closer.

for me it would be:

Wall = Westbrook
2017 Beal < 2021 Beal
Porter > Bonga
Morris = Hachimura
Gortat = Bryant

Jennings/Burke < Neto/Smith
Sato = Avdija (expect alot more from Avdija but uncertainty)
Bogdanovic < Bertans (close)
Oubre < Brown
Mahinmi = Lopez/Wagner

remember, Mahinmi was actually pretty good in 2017 down the stretch.

[NatP4]

All in all, very similar though. Frich's point about the east being much stronger in 2021 is certainly valid, but why are people pegging this team as a mediocre 7/8 seed? I'd like to hear some reasoning including some comparison to the 2017 team.

[payitforward]

Honestly, this is fun, but... there is just no way to know! The big things to think about are:

Westbrook could be better than Wall was that year. Or, if he plays the way he did last year overall, he'll be a whole let less good.

Porter was absolutely tremendous that year (& the next). Otto was the best player on the team in 2016-17.

OTOH, Bogdanovic wasn't all that good -- he had a few outstanding games, & they stick in memory, but overall... not really. Keep in mind that he was only with us for @1/3 of the season & logged only 600 minutes.

We were 33-21 when he joined us; he barely played his first game, which we won. At that point, we had just gone 21-5 -- an absolutely unbelievable, unparalleled run for the Wizards, the like of which cannot be found anywhere in its decades of existence.

Whereupon we proceeded to go 7-3 -- & it was in those games that Bojan made his mark: he basically won about 3 of them for us.

That took us to 41-24 -- then we went 8-9 in the remaining 17 games.

Dang that was fun! & now... I've completely forgotten the rest of what I was going to say in this post!

[deneem4]

Ish might get 6th man if the year if Bertans comes off the bench
Not going to go into the other aspects of the team... but ish is a very underrated bucket who should do well coming behind Westbrook and beal

[nate33]

Ish might get 6th man if the year if Bertans comes off the bench
Not going to go into the other aspects of the team... but ish is a very underrated bucket who should do well coming behind Westbrook and beal

Ish won't be getting 6th man of the year playing just 14 minutes a night behind Westbrook. Bertans will.