If you were the FO, what would you do with the #4 pick?

[UnFadeable21]

Shooting is the #1 thing I assume we'll be evaluating during predraft workouts. Should be more clear then if this was a fluke or if Nesmith is legit. I doubt he can hold those percentages.

He was an 82.5% free throw shooter which means he's probably a legit shooter. He also took a good amount of threes coming off back screens and movement and not just stand still threes, so I think he'll be good for sure, the question is whether he's really elite relative to other guys in this class or just really good and had an exceptional run.

If he's not really great then he's a lot less intriguing.

Meanwhile all this talk of Hayes, Deni and Ball but they're all poor efficient shooters. Sure they maybe able to improve but as of now they have not been able to show that they can shoot efficiently in league play consistently.

The thing I will say about Deni is coming out post COVID he shot 39% from three if I'm not mistaken. Deni's shot looks smooth to me, he just needs reps. LaMelo's shot is totally broke. I don't know how any prospect gets this far with that form. I don't know how his dad hot housed his kids for basketball for so many years and let them all develop such bad shooting habits, its ridiculous. A jr high coach would literally fix these things. Hayes is somewhere in the middle to me. I think his mechanics are worse than Deni's and better than Ball's.

Draft Express says they tracked Lamelo Ball as a 82% free throw shooter

Watch on YouTube

[dougthonus]

Draft Express says they tracked Lamelo Ball as a 82% free throw shooter

Okay?

Go watch LaMelo Ball shoot a basketball for 30 seconds, and you'll see why people have severe concerns about his future shooting ability. Or go watch his brother, Lonzo Ball, whom still can't shoot a basketball and came in into the NBA with the same ridiculously broken shooting form to get a nice example of what this will look like 4 years later.

Beyond that, his NBDL shooting numbers are publicly available and were 72%.

[ZOMG]

Draft Express says they tracked Lamelo Ball as a 82% free throw shooter

Okay?

Go watch LaMelo Ball shoot a basketball for 30 seconds, and you'll see why people have severe concerns about his future shooting ability. Or go watch his brother, Lonzo Ball, whom still can't shoot a basketball and came in into the NBA with the same ridiculously broken shooting form to get a nice example of what this will look like 4 years later.

Beyond that, his NBDL shooting numbers are publicly available and were 72%.

Sure, LaMelo's form makes my eyes bleed, but there's been lots of players with ugly shots who have nevertheless made them work.

However, he has one major flaw that's an absolute killer for an NBA point guard - he can't shoot off the dribble AT ALL. Like... he physically can't. Doesn't even attempt it. It's not in his basketball vocabulary.

LaMelo's shot is the way it is due to years of standing in place waaaaay beyond the perimeter, holding a ball too heavy for him, and launching bombs when the defense doesn't expect him to. His shot doesn't have any rhythm, it's just one quick pushing motion. It's impossible to combine that with a dribble attack or a pull-up.

In that way he's similar to Lonzo. They've both built their games around their broken shots and made themselves more predictable in the process.

[PlayerUp]

Draft Express says they tracked Lamelo Ball as a 82% free throw shooter

Okay?

Go watch LaMelo Ball shoot a basketball for 30 seconds, and you'll see why people have severe concerns about his future shooting ability. Or go watch his brother, Lonzo Ball, whom still can't shoot a basketball and came in into the NBA with the same ridiculously broken shooting form to get a nice example of what this will look like 4 years later.

Beyond that, his NBDL shooting numbers are publicly available and were 72%.

Sure, LaMelo's form makes my eyes bleed, but there's been lots of players with ugly shots who have nevertheless made them work.

However, he has one major flaw that's an absolute killer for an NBA point guard - he can't shoot off the dribble AT ALL. Like... he physically can't. Doesn't even attempt it. It's not in his basketball vocabulary.

LaMelo's shot is the way it is due to years of standing in place waaaaay beyond the perimeter, holding a ball too heavy for him, and launching bombs when the defense doesn't expect him to. His shot doesn't have any rhythm, it's just one quick pushing motion. It's impossible to combine that with a dribble attack or a pull-up.

In that way he's similar to Lonzo. They've both built their games around their broken shots and made themselves more predictable in the process.

LaMelo shooting isn't even the worst part of his game. It's his defense which there is a clear difference between him and Lonzo.

[PlayerUp]

The thing I will say about Deni is coming out post COVID he shot 39% from three if I'm not mistaken. Deni's shot looks smooth to me, he just needs reps.

Deni improved shooting stats are a bit misleading. He started off hot and then went back down to earth again.

In his final 7 games which happened just 3 months ago, Deni shot 20% from 3 over 35 shots total.

[NZB2323]

I’d be open to #3, trading the pick, possibly with one of our young pieces, but I’m not sure what kind of value we could get in return.

[dougthonus]

The thing I will say about Deni is coming out post COVID he shot 39% from three if I'm not mistaken. Deni's shot looks smooth to me, he just needs reps.

Deni improved shooting stats are a bit misleading. He started off hot and then went back down to earth again.

In his final 7 games which happened just 3 months ago, Deni shot 20% from 3 over 35 shots total.

Not sure what you're looking at:
https://basket.co.il/player.asp?PlayerId=11166&lang=en#player-stats-1
From 3, his final 7 games were:
2/3, 2/5, 3/7, 3/6, 4/8, 1/4, 1/6. Yeah he was 20% in his last two games on 2/10, but he was 16/39 from 3 over that stretch. Can say it was a small sample size.

He was actually 38.9% on the year in Israel with his lower shooting numbers being in Euroleague. The bigger concern is the low FT% doesn't project out as a consistent shooter unless he's the next coming of Bruce Bowen.

[PlayerUp]

The thing I will say about Deni is coming out post COVID he shot 39% from three if I'm not mistaken. Deni's shot looks smooth to me, he just needs reps.

Deni improved shooting stats are a bit misleading. He started off hot and then went back down to earth again.

In his final 7 games which happened just 3 months ago, Deni shot 20% from 3 over 35 shots total.

Not sure what you're looking at:
https://basket.co.il/player.asp?PlayerId=11166&lang=en#player-stats-1
From 3, his final 7 games were:
2/3, 2/5, 3/7, 3/6, 4/8, 1/4, 1/6. Yeah he was 20% in his last two games on 2/10, but he was 16/39 from 3 over that stretch. Can say it was a small sample size.

He was actually 38.9% on the year in Israel with his lower shooting numbers being in Euroleague. The bigger concern is the low FT% doesn't project out as a consistent shooter unless he's the next coming of Bruce Bowen.

Thank you for showing this. I did not see this initially and nobody but you has ever said this. In fact there is an entire video on youtube that reads off these stats - https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Deni-Avdija/GameLogs/116938 on RealGM itself. Should have looked at the official site. To be fair, both Hayes/Deni 3PT need work but both have upside to be quality shooters. As seen with OG Anunoby who virtually had no shot in college who then transformed himself into a solid shooter in the NBA, anyone can learn shooting later on in the NBA.

Anyway that's good to know. Still doesn't change the fact that international prospects taken in the lottery have had high bust - viewtopic.php?p=85786224#p85786224.

[mg]

I would trade WCJ +4 for Wiseman.
This front office is not tied to any of these recent draftees.. I still think WCJ will be a solid role player but this team desperately needs to find a star. I would roll the dice here.

[dougthonus]

Thank you for showing this. I did not see this initially and nobody but you has ever said this. In fact there is an entire video on youtube that reads off these stats - https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Deni-Avdija/GameLogs/116938 on RealGM itself. Should have looked at the official site. To be fair, both Hayes/Deni 3PT need work but both have upside to be quality shooters. As seen with OG Anunoby who virtually had no shot in college who then transformed himself into a solid shooter in the NBA, anyone can learn shooting later on in the NBA.

Anyway that's good to know. Still doesn't change the fact that international prospects taken in the lottery have had high bust - viewtopic.php?p=85786224#p85786224.

Someone who follows a lot of European basketball was saying if you compare resumes, Deni has like the 2nd or 3rd best resume of any international prospect. He was the MVP of the Israeli basketball league, so obviously he was viewed very highly there. I can't rank the different European leagues, but my guess is that the Israeli league is below the Spanish, Greek, and Russian leagues historically, but I think its up there in terms of being a tier 1 European league, afterall, his team was in Euroleague.

[cjbulls]

I would trade WCJ +4 for Wiseman.
This front office is not tied to any of these recent draftees.. I still think WCJ will be a solid role player but this team desperately needs to find a star. I would roll the dice here.

It shouldn’t really affect the Bulls decision, but you know if WCJ went to GSW he’d be the catalyst putting them back over the top and everyone would rip the Bulls for trading him to move up two spots.

All he’d need is to stay healthy and not get those ridiculously bad foul calls from the refs, which wouldn’t happen with the way league protects star teams.

[The Chosen one]

Question do you all see Deni being better than Otto Porter? I just don’t see it. When Porter is healthy he’s an Elite shooter, good defender and rebounder. He was also showing some creation ability before he got injured. Porter is not a high assist guy but when needed he makes the right pass. What do you guys see that Deni does better than Porter? I think Porter can be resigned for cheaper if he has a healthy productive year.

[MrSparkle]

Question do you all see Deni being better than Otto Porter? I just don’t see it. When Porter is healthy he’s an Elite shooter, good defender and rebounder. He was also showing some creation ability before he got injured. Porter is not a high assist guy but when needed he makes the right pass. What do you guys see that Deni does better than Porter? I think Porter can be resigned for cheaper if he has a healthy productive year.

Otto is a great player who's fragile and lacks intensity. It's hard to say with Deni's putrid Eurobasket stats, but one thing that's appealing about him, from what I saw in the Israeli games, is he talks on the court, has a tough build, plays physical and leads - alpha mentality. That's good/impressive for a 19yo. I don't think that translates to 'better player; Otto has better athleticism, speed, wing-span, smooth handles - and of course has been an established shooter. But I don't think we've ever seen Otto even try to be 'the man.'

You can argue that guys like Noc, Deng, Battier, while less talented and athletic than peers like Gay, Maggette, Marvin Williams... they did more for their teams by simply being 'bigger' teammates beyond the basketball court. And on the court, they talked, had no problem making guys respect them and fight for them despite being totally incapable of scoring at a star level. I don't know if Otto has that persona at all- 7 years in, he's been content to defer (despite seemingly having all the tools needed to be a top-15 player? Injuries aside). With Deni, the team drafting him top-5 is buying into him being a late-bloomer who at 19 developed habits to become a lite-star.

But for sure, the biggest question in my mind is how you can take Deni in the top-5 and feel confident you'll get your FRP's worth. His ceiling is far and away from the elite SFs, and his floor is a question-mark because we can't be sure he'll hang with NBA wings. If I'm getting Saric +/- 5 or Casspi +/- 10, I need to carefully compare that to the other prospects at #4.

One thing for sure is that I have no problem resigning Otto (if healthy and optimistic trajectory after this next season) and adding Deni, if Deni sells as the best option at #4 - there is no such thing as a wing log-jam in the NBA. I want as many good tweeners and two-way SFs as possible. It really just comes down to whether #4 is a draft-overpay for him. You're not gambling on an athlete, which is what it comes down to - and he's not shooting like Trae or Luka to make up for it. But if it appears like that shot is going to come around, I don't think you compare Otto and Deni as much as consider pairing them. I do think Deni would either render Lauri to the bench or a trade - no chance these guys compound the lateral movement and athleticism short-comings.

[sco]

Question do you all see Deni being better than Otto Porter? I just don’t see it. When Porter is healthy he’s an Elite shooter, good defender and rebounder. He was also showing some creation ability before he got injured. Porter is not a high assist guy but when needed he makes the right pass. What do you guys see that Deni does better than Porter? I think Porter can be resigned for cheaper if he has a healthy productive year.

Otto is a great player who's fragile and lacks intensity. It's hard to say with Deni's putrid Eurobasket stats, but one thing that's appealing about him, from what I saw in the Israeli games, is he talks on the court, has a tough build, plays physical and leads - alpha mentality. That's good/impressive for a 19yo. I don't think that translates to 'better player; Otto has better athleticism, speed, wing-span, smooth handles - and of course has been an established shooter. But I don't think we've ever seen Otto even try to be 'the man.'

You can argue that guys like Noc, Deng, Battier, while less talented and athletic than peers like Gay, Maggette, Marvin Williams... they did more for their teams by simply being 'bigger' teammates beyond the basketball court. And on the court, they talked, had no problem making guys respect them and fight for them despite being totally incapable of scoring at a star level. I don't know if Otto has that persona at all- 7 years in, he's been content to defer (despite seemingly having all the tools needed to be a top-15 player? Injuries aside). With Deni, the team drafting him top-5 is buying into him being a late-bloomer who at 19 developed habits to become a lite-star.

But for sure, the biggest question in my mind is how you can take Deni in the top-5 and feel confident you'll get your FRP's worth. His ceiling is far and away from the elite SFs, and his floor is a question-mark because we can't be sure he'll hang with NBA wings. If I'm getting Saric +/- 5 or Casspi +/- 10, I need to carefully compare that to the other prospects at #4.

One thing for sure is that I have no problem resigning Otto (if healthy and optimistic trajectory after this next season) and adding Deni, if Deni sells as the best option at #4 - there is no such thing as a wing log-jam in the NBA. I want as many good tweeners and two-way SFs as possible. It really just comes down to whether #4 is a draft-overpay for him. You're not gambling on an athlete, which is what it comes down to - and he's not shooting like Trae or Luka to make up for it. But if it appears like that shot is going to come around, I don't think you compare Otto and Deni as much as consider pairing them. I do think Deni would either render Lauri to the bench or a trade - no chance these guys compound the lateral movement and athleticism short-comings.

IMO Otto is head and shoulders better than Deni. As you said, Otto is just injured too often to want to plunk down big $ on a long-term deal. Deni is giving me the Doug McDermott vibe...a guy who looked great in a lesser setting that is a bit of an NBA tweener. Their skillsets are different, but at least Doug was scoring at will against NCAA triple-teams.

[BullsFTW]

Draft Killian Hayes

[ATRAIN53]

I think I'm starting to warm on this Avdija kid.

Maybe he is a poor mans Luka?

The genes are there like Luka - both parents were mega athletes, the kid has been doing semi-pro ball since 13
So this NBA stuff isn't gonna phase him, like Luka.
Has won the MVP in his leagues at age 19, like Luka.

He's 6'8, probably needs some bulk but the word is he's a relentless rim attacker and needs to work on his shot.

He's NOT Jewish, even tho picking him Reinsdorf will get hammered because the kid played in Israel.

I read that the kid was at the 2019 ASG In Charlotte and MJ was wowed by him.
He picks right above us.

I think both us and GSW want him - but GSW are gonna be hard pressed to pass on Wiseman.
He's such a perfect fit there

13 days!

[dougthonus]

I think I'm starting to warm on this Avdija kid.

Maybe he is a poor mans Luka?

The genes are there like Luka - both parents were mega athletes, the kid has been doing semi-pro ball since 13
So this NBA stuff isn't gonna phase him, like Luka.
Has won the MVP in his leagues at age 19, like Luka.

He's 6'8, probably needs some bulk but the word is he's a relentless rim attacker and needs to work on his shot.

He's NOT Jewish, even tho picking him Reinsdorf will get hammered because the kid played in Israel.

I read that the kid was at the 2019 ASG In Charlotte and MJ was wowed by him.
He picks right above us.

I think both us and GSW want him - but GSW are gonna be hard pressed to pass on Wiseman.
He's such a perfect fit there

13 days!

If GS keeps their pick, Wiseman seems perfect in terms of fit, they have the shooting to live with a pure defensive center as well who could run, catch lobs etc...

[MGB8]

I think I'm starting to warm on this Avdija kid.

Maybe he is a poor mans Luka?

The genes are there like Luka - both parents were mega athletes, the kid has been doing semi-pro ball since 13
So this NBA stuff isn't gonna phase him, like Luka.
Has won the MVP in his leagues at age 19, like Luka.

He's 6'8, probably needs some bulk but the word is he's a relentless rim attacker and needs to work on his shot.

He's NOT Jewish, even tho picking him Reinsdorf will get hammered because the kid played in Israel.

I read that the kid was at the 2019 ASG In Charlotte and MJ was wowed by him.
He picks right above us.

I think both us and GSW want him - but GSW are gonna be hard pressed to pass on Wiseman.
He's such a perfect fit there

13 days!

So it matters if the kid is Jewish or not? That's kind of troubling.

[Mr. Tibbs]

I'd be either trading down or drafting Hayes personally.

[TeamMan]

Question do you all see Deni being better than Otto Porter? I just don’t see it. When Porter is healthy he’s an Elite shooter, good defender and rebounder. He was also showing some creation ability before he got injured. Porter is not a high assist guy but when needed he makes the right pass. What do you guys see that Deni does better than Porter? I think Porter can be resigned for cheaper if he has a healthy productive year.

Good points. IMO this is the key to what is going to happen in this draft.

What came as a surprise to me was that our new GM had previous experience with OPJ before he was traded to the Bulls.

In an interview, the GM said that he felt that OPJ had fallen off in his conditioning and one of his goals was to push OPJ to improve his conditioning and that they were already seeing results.

If they believe that OPJ will get back to his pre-injury form, and that he can be signed for less money, then IMO Deni will drop on their draft board and leave them open to all 3 possibilities (up, down or hold).

So, the next scenario is predicting the Bulls starting lineup next season, and that looks like Zach + Coby in the back court.

That means that we can expect to see a large % of shots coming from those 2 players, and the other 3 positions will have an increased responsibility for defense and rebounding (with fewer shots). And a key player standing in the wings is Chandler Hutchison, who IMO has the skill set to develop into a more than adequate defender at both SF and SG.

IMO, all of this is pointing towards Lauri being traded at some point, and the Bulls not being that crazy about getting Deni.

Next, IMO both the T-wolves and the Warriors would be very interested in getting Lauri and the Bulls could most likely work out some type of deal with either team. And the targets would probably be either Edwards or Wiseman.

If the Bulls don't make either of those trade, then there is also the possibility that some other team will trade up to get one of those two players.

So, there is a strong possibility that, if the Bulls keep the #4 pick, they will still be able to get Deni. And that brings us back to the future of OPJ with the team.

If I had to bet on it, I'd say that AK is NOT going to let OPJ walk in any case, and at the very least, he will trade him by the deadline next season. But, in the meantime, he'll try to negotiate an extension at lower money.

This also IMO points to Lauri being traded during the draft (Edwards or Wiseman), or the Bulls keeping the #4 pick (Deni).