NTB wrote:As someone said in the General Board:
Parataxis wrote:
Yup, it's important to remember that Vegas doesn't set over/unders based on what they think will happen, but based on how they think that people will bet. And with the Raps being a foreign team that doesn't get lots of US TV coverage, people tend to sleep on them, so their over/under goes lower than it otherwise 'should'.
This can apply to Suns too. After a 10-year playoff drought, nobody trusts or cares about us.
Yes, I know how Vegas sets lines...they don't want the bets to come too heavy on one side. That equates to a little over 43 wins in a normal season.
I had heard earlier (or read) that they were originally set at about 38, but with the Paul trade, jumped to 43, but I don't know if that is wrong or at another sports book...that is too big of a difference for Vegas books. And not too many teams have more than 43 for an over/under. That would equate to almost 49 wins in a normal season. The only teams that have more than that are Brooklyn, Boston, Denver, the LA teams and Milwaukee. Seems like more teams would be projected to have 50 or more wins. Denver is only 43.5 so that still projects to about 50, leaving only 2 WC teams with more.
Those over/unders all seem pretty low, though then again, the WC is pretty tough top to bottom, except for maybe a couple teams.
I had actually looked for Vegas win totals the other day and couldn't find any...I had never really heard of that site until I saw it on the GB, so who knows if it's legit. I think a lot of bets would come in on the over for the Suns...because the people that will be on the Suns the most are Suns fans, and 38 seems pretty low.