Gold Dragon wrote:I am as anti-tank as they come but we currently have the 7th best odds for the #1 pick at 7.5%. We only have 28 more games to play. We are a worse team in the short term after trading away Norm, TD and Thomas and only getting GTJ back and the shell of Rodney Hood.
We are not out tanking Minny, Detroit, Houston and Orlando. So we are really just looking at Washington (2.5 games behind us) and Cleveland (1 game behind) that could improve our odds. And we don't want to win more games than OKC, CHI, NO, SAC, IND who are within 2.5 games of us.
Even with Lowry on board, we just need to play around 0.500 ball to likely get the best odds we are getting which is the 6th best odds and a 9% chance for Cade (which is not really that different from the #1-5 teams of 14%-10.5%). And Cleveland needs to pick it up. They have beat the 6ers, celtics and us in the last month so it could happen.
With the new lottery odds system, just like what happened last year, there’s a lot more movement in and out of the top 4 picks. It’s almost a crapshoot but being the worse team also has drawbacks in that the pick you end up with is a lot worse than you expected. For example the worse team in league has 14% chance to get #1. It also has a 48% chance to get the #5 pick.
The Raptors are 7th right now which gives them 32% chance to get into top 4, only 20% chance to stay at #7, and 34% chance to drop back to #8 (there’s a 13% chance to drop to #9). So dropping back to 8 is not really a bad scenario, but the 32% chance to get into top4 is nice. If you run the various lotto simulators online you’ll find that many cases those worse teams have a good probability of dropping pack several spots.
Get this, the Minny pick that Warriors own is top3 protected and it has a 60% chance to convey to the Warriors.