1) The stats did their job and helped you appreciate something that isn't immediately obvious
or
2) The stat has a flaw that causes it to mislead you in some cases
So. The argument in that thread, presented by bondom34, begins by looking at LEBRON related stats. I wasn't familiar with those, so I spent some time reading up on them. I'd note this:
- D-LEBRON agrees that Wiggins has been a substantially better this season than ever before. That matches the sniff test, and less nuanced statistics
- O-LEBRON, however, thinks Wiggins is having his least impactful offensive season yet
- Put them together, and LEBRON thinks he's having a slightly below average season, and has regressed from the last few years
The idea that he is having a less impactful offensive season does not match the sniff test for someone who has watched him this season, so I want to dig deeper to understand why that might be. The easy thing to poke at would be the boxscore stats, which are one component of LEBRON. Looking there shows us:
- He's shooting the best FG% of his career by quite a bit
- He's shooting the best 3FG% of his career by a lot
- He's shooting a bit fewer free throws, at about the same percentage he always has
- His rebounding is pretty typical for his career
- He's down about 1.5 assists per game from each of the last few years
- His steals are pretty typical for him
- His blocks are above average for him
- His turnovers are some of the lowest of his career
- His PPG are down a bit, despite being more efficient, because he's taking the fewest shots since his rookie year
So for those more familiar with these stats, what do YOU think is the likely reason that he's showing regression in his offensive impact? It factors for stability; possible that it just isn't convinced it has seen enough of him to believe it, after 46 games of 32 minutes? His minutes are also down a bit, notably. The on-off calculations could be getting funny due to Curry being in the math; so much changes with him on the floor, it could be concluding that the benefits of having Wiggins on the floor are actually benefits of having Curry on the floor or something. It adjusts for luck, but without more specifics, I have trouble imagining why this could be undermining his impact. If I understand the role of Wins Added, it isn't so much that it contributes to LEBRON, as much as it is a result/implication of LEBRON/impact. Is that right?
So what clever thing is O-LEBRON doing to make this non-obvious conclusion actually true?