billy_hoyle wrote:mulamutti wrote:billy_hoyle wrote:
Your entire point is wrong. Its too simplistic. Different front offices are better at SCOUTING! They will make different CHOICES under the same circumstances. The results are what other people would have done. Why are you comparing Masai to Kahn? That's actually what you are doing here. Jesus man it's not even hard to understand.
Not to be mean man, but your point is absolute garbage.
That's all.
Jeez. Those examples I gave were of the raptors scouting staff. Your conjecture is that raptors scouting staff is that much better than everyone else?
Masai drafted Jonas?
Come on man. You know he didn't.
It's more complicated than what you are proposing.
I don't have the answer on how to do this. I think you are kinda on the right track when you point out Masai picked Bruno before Jokic and Capela... Now do that for each pick he's made. Compare the number of all stars available in those historical drafts (or all star caliber players - this is subjective, but all star selections isn't a perfect barometer of impact or pickings high level players).
See how many times he's selected the best player available at his picks (also track if he picked the 2nd or 3rd best player).
Now consider at four the likelihood an all star (or all star caliber player) is available and their abundance within that draft range.
I bet you end up with higher odds than 33% that we get a star. (All star caliber would be someone like SGA).
Additionally, you could weight the available players based on projections, although if you did this you will just find out that Masai has a really high chance of drafting a star, because there are at least 4 high probability stars in this draft.
I was talking about raptors scouting staff in general. Your logic is that Masai specifically has a much better than 33pct odds of drafting a star. Well let's hope you are right. I do trust Masai and he's made excellent productive choices, whether trade or draft selection.
