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What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1481 » by Feed Your Head » Sat Jul 24, 2021 1:41 am

Homerclease wrote:
Patsfan1081 wrote:
The Comedian wrote:
;)

We are all guilty of it, at times.


Smart had already had the rep of being a team guy/doing anything to win games. There’s also a difference between saying you want to be the best defender vs Tatum’s argument of “I increased all my stats from last year”. I just think it’s worrisome, you seldom hear him talking about team accolades or making the team better. Part of it might just be the game today, players aren’t made the same today. But the way he talks…having his face on a bag of chips seemed more important than winning a title.

Talk to me when Tatum misses 3 weeks in the regular season by cutting his hand punching a picture frame over an internet hooker.


He doesn’t care enough to punch the picture frame, trade him.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1482 » by zoyathedestroya » Sun Sep 5, 2021 5:47 pm

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1483 » by bisme37 » Thu Sep 9, 2021 3:27 pm

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1484 » by playa-hater » Thu Sep 9, 2021 3:52 pm

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so.. is this a good thing?? :D

Truth is, he is so good at making bad shots, he often doesn't see what good shots are in comparison. I want him to be aggressive for sure. But not settle for 3s (though he can hit them) taking smarter shots would make him even more unstoppable.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1485 » by ballup » Thu Sep 9, 2021 4:38 pm

playa-hater wrote:
bisme37 wrote:
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so.. is this a good thing?? :D

Truth is, he is so good at making bad shots, he often doesn't see what good shots are in comparison. I want him to be aggressive for sure. But not settle for 3s (though he can hit them) taking smarter shots would make him even more unstoppable.
It is, but is more complex than described. Tatum is usually covered hard and first options hardly get spot up opportunities. So many of his attempts are self created. Compounded by being a ball handler a lot of the time and the offense not incorporating as many shooting off screen plays for Tatum.



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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1486 » by Shak_Celts » Thu Sep 9, 2021 4:56 pm

Real opinion, I can't imagine it and I hope that's how he feels about it!
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1487 » by TH15 » Thu Sep 9, 2021 6:39 pm

Difficult shot making is IMO probably the most important skill for a Superstar to have. It's why I'd take a Durant or Curry over a Giannis or Zion. It's one of the qualities that Ainge always spoke to, and valued a guy like Pierce for mastering.

In the 4th quarter of tight playoff games, defenses dig in and often it's your best player pounding the ball and looking to create looks for himself and others. In the end, there is only one ball to shoot, and to me this dynamic highlights one of the obvious downsides of the "super team" option, due to the diminishing returns of having multiple tough shotmakers sharing the court. Yes, its great having Kyrie as a kick-out option who is one of the all-time great shot-makers, but a lot of times he'll be parked in a corner twiddling his thumbs while Durant and Harden pound the ball.

The one-superstar-tough-shotmaker approach may be a lot more predictable, but if we're gonna end with a contested shot, Tatum is the guy I want taking that shot every time. Brown can play the Ray Allen role of being a tough catch-and-shoot guy coming off screens etc while Tatum fits the PP role better than the Truth himself. Now if we can figure out a way to transplant Al Horford's brain into Timelord's body, we'll also have our KG :D
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1488 » by exculpatory » Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:49 am

TH15 wrote:Difficult shot making is IMO probably the most important skill for a Superstar to have. It's why I'd take a Durant or Curry over a Giannis or Zion. It's one of the qualities that Ainge always spoke to, and valued a guy like Pierce for mastering.

In the 4th quarter of tight playoff games, defenses dig in and often it's your best player pounding the ball and looking to create looks for himself and others. In the end, there is only one ball to shoot, and to me this dynamic highlights one of the obvious downsides of the "super team" option, due to the diminishing returns of having multiple tough shotmakers sharing the court. Yes, its great having Kyrie as a kick-out option who is one of the all-time great shot-makers, but a lot of times he'll be parked in a corner twiddling his thumbs while Durant and Harden pound the ball.

1. The one-superstar-tough-shotmaker approach may be a lot more predictable, but if we're gonna end with a contested shot, Tatum is the guy I want taking that shot every time.

2. Brown can play the Ray Allen role of being a tough catch-and-shoot guy coming off screens etc…

3…while Tatum fits the PP role better than the Truth himself.

4. Now if we can figure out a way to transplant Al Horford's brain into Timelord's body, we'll also have our KG :D


Great post!

1. Agreed.
2. Agreed.
3. Maybe - but he needs to prove it for many more seasons over & over & over again before you can say that.
4. Would be perfect! LOL.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1489 » by Feed Your Head » Sun Feb 6, 2022 7:04 pm

Time to bump this.

I’ve pretty much always maintained that Tatum’s ceiling is that second tier after the no doubt perennial MVP candidates. Somewhere in that top 4-7ish range, but this season kind of has me wondering if he actually can get to that top level.

So the shooting is obvious, 43/33 isn’t going to cut it long term, and I’m not really concerned about that anyways. But in a season where his best weapon has mostly abandoned him, he’s almost unquestionably been one of the 10-15 biggest impact players in the league. His defense has been incredible since the first few games of the season, and we’ve all seen the leap as a playmaker (or at least his ability to read defenses). His assists and assists rate are basically the same as last year, but he’s running PnR 7% less than last season, and that’s where he does a majority of his playmaking. No surprise that since the PnR’s have increased, so have the assists. We do need to see more consistency here though, clearly.

Start with how the team performs with him on the court versus off, Rob has the best net rating on the team at +7.5, Tatum is tied with Smart at +7.3. The starting lineup wrecks everyone, so it makes sense. Tatum also plays a lot of minutes with some of our worst lineups, and they still smoke teams. When Tatum sits, our net rating drops to -4.1, Smart is the next closest at -1.2. We go from the third best net rating in the league when Tatum plays, to the sixth worst when he sits. And since January 1st, it’s gotten significantly more extreme, he has a net rating of about +19, and when he sits, their net rating drops to -5.5 or so. The next closest is Rob at -1.2, and Smart at +1.1. You expect to fall off when your best player sits, but that is pretty dramatic.

Now advanced/impact stats. I’ll post where Tatum ranks in wins added pretty much across the board.

BPM- 93rd percentile (can’t find an outright ranking for BPM wins added)
LEBRON- 7th
RAPTOR- 4th
EPM- 8th
Bball reference win shares- 24th (don’t like the stat but it’s the lowest one for Tatum, so wanted to be fair.)

So, in my opinion, the fact that he’s been able to be an elite player without his best weapon, bolds incredibly well for the future. Excited to see how he and Jaylen play down the stretch.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1490 » by zoyathedestroya » Sun Feb 6, 2022 9:22 pm

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Beal and Tatum really BFFs lol. Didn't expect Booker to be where he is either.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1491 » by Jaqua92 » Sun Feb 6, 2022 10:10 pm

The Comedian wrote:Time to bump this.

I’ve pretty much always maintained that Tatum’s ceiling is that second tier after the no doubt perennial MVP candidates. Somewhere in that top 4-7ish range, but this season kind of has me wondering if he actually can get to that top level.

So the shooting is obvious, 43/33 isn’t going to cut it long term, and I’m not really concerned about that anyways. But in a season where his best weapon has mostly abandoned him, he’s almost unquestionably been one of the 10-15 biggest impact players in the league. His defense has been incredible since the first few games of the season, and we’ve all seen the leap as a playmaker (or at least his ability to read defenses). His assists and assists rate are basically the same as last year, but he’s running PnR 7% less than last season, and that’s where he does a majority of his playmaking. No surprise that since the PnR’s have increased, so have the assists. We do need to see more consistency here though, clearly.

Start with how the team performs with him on the court versus off, Rob has the best net rating on the team at +7.5, Tatum is tied with Smart at +7.3. The starting lineup wrecks everyone, so it makes sense. Tatum also plays a lot of minutes with some of our worst lineups, and they still smoke teams. When Tatum sits, our net rating drops to -4.1, Smart is the next closest at -1.2. We go from the third best net rating in the league when Tatum plays, to the sixth worst when he sits. And since January 1st, it’s gotten significantly more extreme, he has a net rating of about +19, and when he sits, their net rating drops to -5.5 or so. The next closest is Rob at -1.2, and Smart at +1.1. You expect to fall off when your best player sits, but that is pretty dramatic.

Now advanced/impact stats. I’ll post where Tatum ranks in wins added pretty much across the board.

BPM- 93rd percentile (can’t find an outright ranking for BPM wins added)
LEBRON- 7th
RAPTOR- 4th
EPM- 8th
Bball reference win shares- 24th (don’t like the stat but it’s the lowest one for Tatum, so wanted to be fair.)

So, in my opinion, the fact that he’s been able to be an elite player without his best weapon, bolds incredibly well for the future. Excited to see how he and Jaylen play down the stretch.
I think he will spend most of his prime in that second tier below perinneal MVP candidacy, and peak 1-3 seasons at that level.

I also think he wins an MVP before he peaks, and probably doesn't win another one, despite being better.

What I've been seeing from Tatum as a playmaker this last month is what I thought he'd be in his prime.

I was wrong, and firmly believe that with a good enough team he can have a good 5 year stretch of 27/8/6.5 on something like 48/38/85.

Perinneal top 10 guy is probably the ceiling, with a few peak years at the MVP level.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1492 » by chrisab123 » Mon Feb 7, 2022 12:07 am

Ceiling is perennial MVP candidate. Will he hit it? Not sure. Might not be with the Celtics when/if he does
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1493 » by ryan in Maine » Mon Feb 7, 2022 1:10 am

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I'm number 1-2-3-4 and 5!
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1494 » by Feed Your Head » Mon Feb 7, 2022 1:19 am

ryan in Maine wrote:I'm not number 1--oh sorry I lied
I'm number 1-2-3-4 and 5!


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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1495 » by playa-hater » Mon Feb 7, 2022 1:50 am

chrisab123 wrote:Ceiling is perennial MVP candidate. Will he hit it? Not sure. Might not be with the Celtics when/if he does


This for me ^
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1496 » by ryan in Maine » Mon Feb 7, 2022 3:14 am

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ryan in Maine wrote:I'm not number 1--oh sorry I lied
I'm number 1-2-3-4 and 5!


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I'm ready for Slayson Trètum.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1497 » by Feed Your Head » Mon Feb 7, 2022 5:57 pm

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1498 » by zoyathedestroya » Mon Feb 7, 2022 9:39 pm

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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1499 » by sam_I_am » Wed Feb 9, 2022 4:08 pm

Right now Tatum compares very favorably to both Dirk Nowitski and Kevin Durant who have defined the modern power forward position in both individual and team success. When all is said and done people will debate who was the best of the three and there is a chance Tatum could pass Dirk and become #2 depending on how the next 5 years play out.

Shots come so easy to him like KD and therefore he shoots more in isolation than Dirk did. He also hasn’t had the luxury of playing with elite playmakers like Kidd and Nash. ( I don’t count Irving even though he was actually a committed floor general for first 1/2 of Tatum rookie season before season ending surgery but Tatum wasn’t getting the usage he gets now ). KD’s length, handle and clutch shot put him at another level but Tatum’s defensive ability might give him a potential edge over Dirk in the future.

When you look at Dirk and KD’s finals teams, the talent deficit around Tatum is striking. KD got to finals with Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Reggie Jackson. Dirk’s championship team had Kidd, Terry, Marion, Chandler, Barea. If the Celtics could upgrade the supporting cast I think Tatum could deliver.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling? 

Post#1500 » by Jaqua92 » Wed Feb 9, 2022 4:24 pm

sam_I_am wrote:Right now Tatum compares very favorably to both Dirk Nowitski and Kevin Durant who have defined the modern power forward position in both individual and team success. When all is said and done people will debate who was the best of the three and there is a chance Tatum could pass Dirk and become #2 depending on how the next 5 years play out.

Shots come so easy to him like KD and therefore he shoots more in isolation than Dirk did. He also hasn’t had the luxury of playing with elite playmakers like Kidd and Nash. ( I don’t count Irving even though he was actually a committed floor general for first 1/2 of Tatum rookie season before season ending surgery but Tatum wasn’t getting the usage he gets now ). KD’s length, handle and clutch shot put him at another level but Tatum’s defensive ability might give him a potential edge over Dirk in the future.

When you look at Dirk and KD’s finals teams, the talent deficit around Tatum is striking. KD got to finals with Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka, Reggie Jackson. Dirk’s championship team had Kidd, Terry, Marion, Chandler, Barea. If the Celtics could upgrade the supporting cast I think Tatum could deliver.
I think this is a massive, massive stretch

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