The Comedian wrote:Time to bump this.
I’ve pretty much always maintained that Tatum’s ceiling is that second tier after the no doubt perennial MVP candidates. Somewhere in that top 4-7ish range, but this season kind of has me wondering if he actually can get to that top level.
So the shooting is obvious, 43/33 isn’t going to cut it long term, and I’m not really concerned about that anyways. But in a season where his best weapon has mostly abandoned him, he’s almost unquestionably been one of the 10-15 biggest impact players in the league. His defense has been incredible since the first few games of the season, and we’ve all seen the leap as a playmaker (or at least his ability to read defenses). His assists and assists rate are basically the same as last year, but he’s running PnR 7% less than last season, and that’s where he does a majority of his playmaking. No surprise that since the PnR’s have increased, so have the assists. We do need to see more consistency here though, clearly.
Start with how the team performs with him on the court versus off, Rob has the best net rating on the team at +7.5, Tatum is tied with Smart at +7.3. The starting lineup wrecks everyone, so it makes sense. Tatum also plays a lot of minutes with some of our worst lineups, and they still smoke teams. When Tatum sits, our net rating drops to -4.1, Smart is the next closest at -1.2. We go from the third best net rating in the league when Tatum plays, to the sixth worst when he sits. And since January 1st, it’s gotten significantly more extreme, he has a net rating of about +19, and when he sits, their net rating drops to -5.5 or so. The next closest is Rob at -1.2, and Smart at +1.1. You expect to fall off when your best player sits, but that is pretty dramatic.
Now advanced/impact stats. I’ll post where Tatum ranks in wins added pretty much across the board.
BPM- 93rd percentile (can’t find an outright ranking for BPM wins added)
LEBRON- 7th
RAPTOR- 4th
EPM- 8th
Bball reference win shares- 24th (don’t like the stat but it’s the lowest one for Tatum, so wanted to be fair.)
So, in my opinion, the fact that he’s been able to be an elite player without his best weapon, bolds incredibly well for the future. Excited to see how he and Jaylen play down the stretch.
I think he will spend most of his prime in that second tier below perinneal MVP candidacy, and peak 1-3 seasons at that level.
I also think he wins an MVP before he peaks, and probably doesn't win another one, despite being better.
What I've been seeing from Tatum as a playmaker this last month is what I thought he'd be in his prime.
I was wrong, and firmly believe that with a good enough team he can have a good 5 year stretch of 27/8/6.5 on something like 48/38/85.
Perinneal top 10 guy is probably the ceiling, with a few peak years at the MVP level.
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