doctor him wrote:tidho wrote:doctor him wrote:I don't think that changes a thing.
Simmons will get moved when a suitable offer comes in and not before.
No one is going to say "Oh well...I guess we need to take a role player and a late first type of offer now."
We all know where we're at and nothing's changed.
I think this is true. That doesn't mean things won't change though. As some point the team and Embiid specifically are going to get frustrated by this. At some point you're risking him wanting out if you just let the situation rot inside the organization.
Step 1 Simmons has to prove he's willing to give up money to stay away, but if he does then its the Sixers on the clock.
Anything "can" change in the future.
I do however enjoy the constant (and perhaps "hopeful") speculation from other fanbases that this scenario would spin into Embiid wanting out literally a month after signing his extension. (Should we speculate whether Durant is tired of Kyrie now too?).
Simmons wants to be dealt now, but that's not happening. He can pout or whatever, but the Sixers aren't going to take a bad deal. Moreover, the fanbase is fine with letting Simmons sit. He's the "bad guy" in this situation for leaking out the "fans" as one of his many, many, many excuses over the past couple of couple months.
If we get to the all-star break and the Sixers are in the 7th seed for example, then that might change, but that won't happen because:
1. Even without Simmons they are a 4 seed at worst.
2. Some other team with big dreams to make a playoff or make a playoff run (Portland, Sacramento, Minny, Cleveland, Chicago, etc...) is going to start out slow. Someone will talk themselves into paying close to market value for a 25 year old all star to sell their fanbase. A deal like that will buy an embattled GM another 12 -18 months.
3. Simmons (himself) isn't built to take the heat. Well before January, he's going to go to Klutch and tell them to make a deal happen. Rich P. will pull some off the books favor ("If you make this deal happen, then when _________ comes up as a free agent we'll make sure we don't forget your coming through for us here.")
But there's no pressure from the Sixers side on this until you start making reservations for Valentine's Day dinner.
I mean... I constantly hear this from 76ers fans. Some other team could start out slow and panic.... yet I never hear about the opposite. What if the 76ers start out slow and the distraction of Simmons mounts? I think it's a fool's errand to believe that there's any way that Simmons value goes up without getting on the court.
I think a trade for a guy like Lillard is probably long gone and out the window. Even if Lillard wants out, I don't think depressed value Simmons, some long away 1sts, and Maxey is the top deal coming Portland's way. Much like the Rockets, the disgruntled star trader is likely going to look in a different direction than a Simmons-centric trade.
I'm not going to sit here and say the 76ers must, or need, to trade Simmons. However, this naïve notion that this plan is without any real risk is utterly blind to reality. There is plenty of reason to think this goes nuclear and spirals as the season wears on. This whole ordeal feels like the 76ers are putting a large wad of cash on black at a roulette table with equal chances of winning a low gain trade, or crashing and burning into a trade in December they should've made at the beginning of the season, now with less picks and intrigue.
I understand the reasons for waiting for the 76ers. I'm not saying they shouldn't. But this isn't a CD ladder, this is gambling.
