2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2)

Moderators: Clav, Domejandro, ken6199, bisme37, Dirk, KingDavid, cupcakesnake, bwgood77, zimpy27, infinite11285

Which rookie impresses you the most?

Cade Cunningham
24
8%
Jalen Green
9
3%
Evan Mobley
76
26%
Scottie Barnes
104
36%
Jalen Suggs
4
1%
Josh Giddey
17
6%
Franz Wagner
42
15%
Chris Duarte
1
0%
Davion Mitchell
3
1%
Other
9
3%
 
Total votes: 289

MotownMadness
RealGM
Posts: 38,768
And1: 22,822
Joined: Oct 08, 2013
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#161 » by MotownMadness » Wed Nov 3, 2021 1:54 pm

Statlanta wrote:Fair or not. ZIon had injury issues and produced immediately. Cade is graded on a number draft pick scale. Outsiders will be very disappointed if he doesn’t improve sooner than later

He definitely needs to start producing soon but comparing him to a prospect like Zion is ridiculous. Zion was obviously gonna be a big time talent.
User avatar
K_chile22
RealGM
Posts: 16,741
And1: 8,630
Joined: Jul 15, 2015
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#162 » by K_chile22 » Wed Nov 3, 2021 1:56 pm

All time bust after 2 games is quite the take
10giz
Senior
Posts: 665
And1: 661
Joined: Apr 26, 2017
     

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#163 » by 10giz » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:13 pm

K_chile22 wrote:All time bust after 2 games is quite the take


People have the most twisted perception and terribly wrong expectations of #1 selections (top 5 even more so).

Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Zion Williamson
Deandre Ayton
Markelle Fultz
Ben Simmons
Karl Anthony Towns
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Bennett
Anthony Davis
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Blake Griffin
Derrick Rose
Greg Oden
Andrea Bargnani
Andrew Bogut
Dwight Howard

The truth nobody wants to accept is that getting any player who can even be a solid starter - mid range all star should be considered a win. The only two 1st overall picks to even contribute to a title, only did so on the back of LeBron James.

This list gets even uglier if you the top 5 picks into account.

I believe this is a huge reason Masai Ujiri (as well as some others) focus primarily on character and personality as those are the types that are able to overcome adversity, maintain consistent work ethic, and carry themselves professionally over the course of a long period of time.

Since 2013 there have only been 11 draft picks who've since become All Stars and All NBA selections.

Doncic (#3 - 2018)
Tatum (#3 - 2017)
Simmons (#1 - 2016)
Siakam (#27 - 2016)
KAT (#1 - 2015)
Embiid (#3 - 2014)
Randle (#7 - 2014)
Jokic (#41 - 2014)
Oladipo (#2 - 2013)
Giannis (#15 - 2013)
Gobert (#27 - 2013)

Count the Champions. You won't find them in the top 10. The best players were not the ones everyone expected to be the best.

A franchise is actually better off hiring a great and unique GM who'll go for the players they believe in rather than a #1 pick when it comes to success and winning.
Jadoogar
RealGM
Posts: 17,330
And1: 16,966
Joined: May 06, 2010
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#164 » by Jadoogar » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:24 pm

What was the reason Cade Cunningham was ranked #1? I'm not overreacting to the slow start, that happens. But skill wise, i don't see how he's better than Mobley.
Yallbecrazy
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,807
And1: 5,489
Joined: Nov 25, 2013

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#165 » by Yallbecrazy » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:25 pm

10giz wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:All time bust after 2 games is quite the take


People have the most twisted perception and terribly wrong expectations of #1 selections (top 5 even more so).

Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Zion Williamson
Deandre Ayton
Markelle Fultz
Ben Simmons
Karl Anthony Towns
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Bennett
Anthony Davis
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Blake Griffin
Derrick Rose
Greg Oden
Andrea Bargnani
Andrew Bogut
Dwight Howard

The truth nobody wants to accept is that getting any player who can even be a solid starter - mid range all star should be considered a win. The only two 1st overall picks to even contribute to a title, only did so on the back of LeBron James.

This list gets even uglier if you the top 5 picks into account.

I believe this is a huge reason Masai Ujiri (as well as some others) focus primarily on character and personality as those are the types that are able to overcome adversity, maintain consistent work ethic, and carry themselves professionally over the course of a long period of time.


This was a stacked draft though and Mobley was an all time level prospect, unfortunately the groupthink around Ford and ESPN said Cade was the best and the internet believed it. The #1 pick should be a lot better than many other years because this draft had 5+ guys that would have gone #1 in 2020.
User avatar
CptCrunch
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 4,697
Joined: Jun 30, 2016
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#166 » by CptCrunch » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:37 pm

Jadoogar wrote:What was the reason Cade Cunningham was ranked #1? I'm not overreacting to the slow start, that happens. But skill wise, i don't see how he's better than Mobley.


These are the claims, I disagreed with some of these points even back in June/July pre-draft.

1/ Elite shooting at every spot on the floor

2/ 6'8" wing with 7' wingspan - (not true apparently, listed at 6'6" in shoes by Pistons)

3/ Plus defender at his position

4/ Elite playermaker at SF size, can play PG

The main criticism of Mobley from Cade proponents is that bigs are low impact in the league (citing the likes of Towns, Ayton, etc, good if they turn out but don't move the needle). Even the biggest Mobley fans like me weren't expecting rookie KG level of impact on defense. He was supposed to be great, not generational on defense this early.
10giz
Senior
Posts: 665
And1: 661
Joined: Apr 26, 2017
     

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#167 » by 10giz » Wed Nov 3, 2021 2:39 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:
10giz wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:All time bust after 2 games is quite the take


People have the most twisted perception and terribly wrong expectations of #1 selections (top 5 even more so).

Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Zion Williamson
Deandre Ayton
Markelle Fultz
Ben Simmons
Karl Anthony Towns
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Bennett
Anthony Davis
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Blake Griffin
Derrick Rose
Greg Oden
Andrea Bargnani
Andrew Bogut
Dwight Howard

The truth nobody wants to accept is that getting any player who can even be a solid starter - mid range all star should be considered a win. The only two 1st overall picks to even contribute to a title, only did so on the back of LeBron James.

This list gets even uglier if you the top 5 picks into account.

I believe this is a huge reason Masai Ujiri (as well as some others) focus primarily on character and personality as those are the types that are able to overcome adversity, maintain consistent work ethic, and carry themselves professionally over the course of a long period of time.


This was a stacked draft though and Mobley was an all time level prospect, unfortunately the groupthink around Ford and ESPN said Cade was the best and the internet believed it. The #1 pick should be a lot better than many other years because this draft had 5+ guys that would have gone #1 in 2020.


I'm sorry but Mobley was nowhere near as highly spoken of or regarded as prospects like KAT, AD, Oden. Do people not remember who Andrew Bogut was in college? Go further back to Emeka Okafor, D12, Horford. Blake Griffin was supposed to change the game.

The internet may have believed, but I and others didn't.

Any fan who's had a GM of their team hit big on a non top 5 pick probably didn't believe it either.

Even most Raptor fans, literally the most fortunate and blessed fanbase when it comes to drafting good-great players without premium picks still went with consensus and furthermore bashed Masai right after he took Barnes.

Fact is we don't know **** about how any class will develop. Everyones just looked into recency bias and theres just so much more media coverage on certain guys that people just accept whatever they read.
User avatar
ocelot17
Veteran
Posts: 2,588
And1: 4,022
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
Location: Houston, Tx
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#168 » by ocelot17 » Wed Nov 3, 2021 3:03 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=21
Shy Gorgeous-Al
Junior
Posts: 363
And1: 351
Joined: Jun 10, 2018

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#169 » by Shy Gorgeous-Al » Wed Nov 3, 2021 3:18 pm

ocelot17 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21


7TO

Poor defense
basketballRob
RealGM
Posts: 37,221
And1: 14,934
Joined: May 05, 2014
     

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#170 » by basketballRob » Wed Nov 3, 2021 4:09 pm

Wagner
Mobley
Barnes
Duarte

Based on RAPTOR scores.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM Forums mobile app
Jadoogar
RealGM
Posts: 17,330
And1: 16,966
Joined: May 06, 2010
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#171 » by Jadoogar » Wed Nov 3, 2021 4:12 pm

I think in a couple years we're going to be shocked Mobley fell all the way to 3, similar to how we talk about Luka. I'm not saying Cunningham or Green are bad, just that Mobley looks awesome and the exact type of big teams are looking for right now.
ATLTimekeeper
RealGM
Posts: 42,477
And1: 23,710
Joined: Apr 28, 2008

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#172 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Nov 3, 2021 4:46 pm

ocelot17 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21


I know it's standard with these statline posts, but the "2 rebounds" is always hilarious. Why can't they just keep it to the positives?
Madhouse
RealGM
Posts: 12,323
And1: 9,892
Joined: Dec 23, 2014
 

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#173 » by Madhouse » Wed Nov 3, 2021 4:55 pm

CptCrunch wrote:1/ Cade's shooting is fine.

2/ He was a fairly elite shooter in college, off the screen, in iso and in catch and shoot situation. Even if he can't iso in the NBA, his shot should be fine when he gets used to the speed of the game.

3/ My big problem with Cade pre-draft (hence ranking him as #6 on my big board) is that I see no path for him to play point guard in the league. In college he was at 94 assist to 109 turnovers, summer league he was 7 assist to 12 turnovers, in his first 2 games, he is 5 assists to 4 turnovers. I see no realistic path for him to improve his ATO (Assist TurnOver ratio) to a reasonable level above 2. Just as a frame of reference, a turnover prone PG like Westbrook is still at 2.5 ATO. Good NBA guards are between 2.7-3 ATO. Rubio and Paul are at 4 ATO.

4/ I fail to see how any who has ever looked at his stat sheet can believe that Cade can play point forward/guard in the league. This is all ignoring his physical deficiencies in terms of being an minus athlete at the NBA level.


what did your big board look like?
User avatar
Bruin
RealGM
Posts: 25,214
And1: 39,708
Joined: Mar 11, 2018
       

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#174 » by Bruin » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:05 pm

I’d personally swap Franz and Duarte but otherwise I think the list is solid
Read on Twitter
?s=21
Image
Madhouse
RealGM
Posts: 12,323
And1: 9,892
Joined: Dec 23, 2014
 

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#175 » by Madhouse » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:13 pm

Jalen Green played very well in the first half, he had some dumb TOs in the 2nd half.
User avatar
normgod6
Junior
Posts: 482
And1: 767
Joined: Jul 05, 2019
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#176 » by normgod6 » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:31 pm

10giz wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
10giz wrote:
People have the most twisted perception and terribly wrong expectations of #1 selections (top 5 even more so).

Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Zion Williamson
Deandre Ayton
Markelle Fultz
Ben Simmons
Karl Anthony Towns
Andrew Wiggins
Anthony Bennett
Anthony Davis
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Blake Griffin
Derrick Rose
Greg Oden
Andrea Bargnani
Andrew Bogut
Dwight Howard

The truth nobody wants to accept is that getting any player who can even be a solid starter - mid range all star should be considered a win. The only two 1st overall picks to even contribute to a title, only did so on the back of LeBron James.

This list gets even uglier if you the top 5 picks into account.

I believe this is a huge reason Masai Ujiri (as well as some others) focus primarily on character and personality as those are the types that are able to overcome adversity, maintain consistent work ethic, and carry themselves professionally over the course of a long period of time.


This was a stacked draft though and Mobley was an all time level prospect, unfortunately the groupthink around Ford and ESPN said Cade was the best and the internet believed it. The #1 pick should be a lot better than many other years because this draft had 5+ guys that would have gone #1 in 2020.


I'm sorry but Mobley was nowhere near as highly spoken of or regarded as prospects like KAT, AD, Oden. Do people not remember who Andrew Bogut was in college? Go further back to Emeka Okafor, D12, Horford. Blake Griffin was supposed to change the game.

The internet may have believed, but I and others didn't.

Any fan who's had a GM of their team hit big on a non top 5 pick probably didn't believe it either.

Even most Raptor fans, literally the most fortunate and blessed fanbase when it comes to drafting good-great players without premium picks still went with consensus and furthermore bashed Masai right after he took Barnes.

Fact is we don't know **** about how any class will develop. Everyones just looked into recency bias and theres just so much more media coverage on certain guys that people just accept whatever they read.
there were definitely some analytics people who loved Mobley and had him as a cant miss prospect. He had an all time high BPM in college, carried a mediocre USC team to relevancy, played elite defense while never fouling, racked up great assist numbers for a big man. Just because the traditional mainstream media underrated Mobley by following the mindless trend of underrating bigmen doesnt mean no one saw this coming.

Sent from my SM-A530W using RealGM mobile app
Shock Defeat
RealGM
Posts: 10,720
And1: 18,827
Joined: Aug 30, 2012
       

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#177 » by Shock Defeat » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:38 pm

Madhouse wrote:Jalen Green played very well in the first half, he had some dumb TOs in the 2nd half.

Jalen Green plays on a glorified G-League roster with an inexperienced coach. There is no system there and no true PG. KPJ is a SG that they are forcing into a PG role, and it's becoming obvious that it's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

We have rookies and 2nd year players getting the bulk of the minutes. The only veteran presence we have is Eric Gordon who is looking to get traded more than anything. John Wall is a healthy scratch every game. Green is trying to succeed despite being in clearly worse situations compared to Barnes or Mobley.
Marmoset
Veteran
Posts: 2,538
And1: 563
Joined: Nov 17, 2003
 

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#178 » by Marmoset » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:50 pm

normgod6 wrote:there were definitely some analytics people who loved Mobley and had him as a cant miss prospect. He had an all time high BPM in college, carried a mediocre USC team to relevancy, played elite defense while never fouling, racked up great assist numbers for a big man. Just because the traditional mainstream media underrated Mobley by following the mindless trend of underrating bigmen doesnt mean no one saw this coming.

Sent from my SM-A530W using RealGM mobile app


As a fairly casual observer leading up to the draft I loved Mobley and couldn't understand how he wasn't looked at as the guy who should go #1. (I 'm not going to take too much credit there since I also wanted Suggs over Barnes like most Raptors fans).

The argument about the modern NBA being a guard's league and not taking a big man is one of the most idiotic things I've heard in this idiotic world we live in. If guards are dominant and it's so hard to find a dominant big, then all the more reason to grab a great prospect big man if you have the opportunity. If you agree with the 'guard's league' philosophy then isn't it much easier to find a high-level guard?

The Bucks just won with Giannis, and the Lakers had AD. The teams they defeated also had very good, young big men who may yet reach a higher level (Adebayo, Ayton). Three of the four were playing for the team that drafted them. Did most of the league just decide that because the Warriors won the way they did without one that everyone else can too? I think it's possible to win with or without one, there is no magic formula - but as a GM you shouldn't avoid taking a big man just because of this (IMO incorrect) view of how to win in the NBA.
User avatar
CptCrunch
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 4,697
Joined: Jun 30, 2016
   

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#179 » by CptCrunch » Wed Nov 3, 2021 5:51 pm

Madhouse wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:1/ Cade's shooting is fine.

2/ He was a fairly elite shooter in college, off the screen, in iso and in catch and shoot situation. Even if he can't iso in the NBA, his shot should be fine when he gets used to the speed of the game.

3/ My big problem with Cade pre-draft (hence ranking him as #6 on my big board) is that I see no path for him to play point guard in the league. In college he was at 94 assist to 109 turnovers, summer league he was 7 assist to 12 turnovers, in his first 2 games, he is 5 assists to 4 turnovers. I see no realistic path for him to improve his ATO (Assist TurnOver ratio) to a reasonable level above 2. Just as a frame of reference, a turnover prone PG like Westbrook is still at 2.5 ATO. Good NBA guards are between 2.7-3 ATO. Rubio and Paul are at 4 ATO.

4/ I fail to see how any who has ever looked at his stat sheet can believe that Cade can play point forward/guard in the league. This is all ignoring his physical deficiencies in terms of being an minus athlete at the NBA level.


what did your big board look like?


Sorry revisionist memory, I had him at #4, Green at #6. This was 3 hours before draft. This has been a good year for my big board.

CptCrunch wrote:This is my final board for the top 10, 3 hours before the draft.

1. Mobley

gap

2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Cade

gap

5. Sengun
6. Green
7. Wagner

gap

8. Giddy
9. Jalen Johnson
10. Bouknight


viewtopic.php?p=92809709#p92809709
Madhouse
RealGM
Posts: 12,323
And1: 9,892
Joined: Dec 23, 2014
 

Re: 2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 2) 

Post#180 » by Madhouse » Wed Nov 3, 2021 6:19 pm

CptCrunch wrote:
Madhouse wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:1/ Cade's shooting is fine.

2/ He was a fairly elite shooter in college, off the screen, in iso and in catch and shoot situation. Even if he can't iso in the NBA, his shot should be fine when he gets used to the speed of the game.

3/ My big problem with Cade pre-draft (hence ranking him as #6 on my big board) is that I see no path for him to play point guard in the league. In college he was at 94 assist to 109 turnovers, summer league he was 7 assist to 12 turnovers, in his first 2 games, he is 5 assists to 4 turnovers. I see no realistic path for him to improve his ATO (Assist TurnOver ratio) to a reasonable level above 2. Just as a frame of reference, a turnover prone PG like Westbrook is still at 2.5 ATO. Good NBA guards are between 2.7-3 ATO. Rubio and Paul are at 4 ATO.

4/ I fail to see how any who has ever looked at his stat sheet can believe that Cade can play point forward/guard in the league. This is all ignoring his physical deficiencies in terms of being an minus athlete at the NBA level.


what did your big board look like?


Sorry revisionist memory, I had him at #4, Green at #6. This was 3 hours before draft. This has been a good year for my big board.

CptCrunch wrote:This is my final board for the top 10, 3 hours before the draft.

1. Mobley

gap

2. Suggs
3. Barnes
4. Cade

gap

5. Sengun
6. Green
7. Wagner

gap

8. Giddy
9. Jalen Johnson
10. Bouknight


viewtopic.php?p=92809709#p92809709


Interesting.
I had Mobley, Barnes, Green, Cade and Giddey as my top 5.

Mobley should have been clear #1. If he ends up there in the end tbd but almost no chance he falls outside top 3 impact players. Green is an elite athlete who will figure things out.

I never understood why Cade was seen as the consensus #1 prospect. His and Barnes advanced stats in college were identical despite him having an excellent jumpshot and experience playing his position. If his shot is **** up, he really might be a major bust. If he gets it back, he will be good. He needs to play SG though.

I wasn't high on Wagner and Suggs. So far Wagner is proving me very wrong, he has been excellent.

Return to The General Board