dougthonus wrote:
I don't know if I know what a single one of these stats mean. Hopefully they are indicative of something, because the Bears offense still blows, Fields has three TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing) vs 2 INTs and 2 Fumbles (0 lost) over that time and has averaged a paltry, by modern NFL standards, 233 yards per game over that stretch. Both games were Bears losses.
I'm not deep into football stats like I am basketball stats, and I got to be honest, I was watching the Bulls on MNF, so missed that game in its entirety. I've been on the throw Fields into the fire and see what you got camp from day 1, but it sure doesn't seem like a whole lot so far. Not panic worthy in his rookie year, maybe these are are signs of real growth from him, but I'd say my confidence went from about 50/50 on whether the Bears solved their QB problem to about 35/65 so far this season. Though statistically, it does look like that last game was his best of the year, and I missed it (no regrets given the Bulls game).
If you take his box stats --yes they are bad--but after the past 2 games - I'm slightly more Bullish on Fields maybe 60/40 (bears googles) but I truly think that coaching/scheme/organization is still a huge part. Again we need a bigger sample size but these stats show he is at least effective in running "hero ball", longer passes, effective running/scrambles. His run vs the 49ers was elite--I didn't know he was that good at running honestly. Who else in the NFL QB could possibly make that run? Lamar, Murray....and....??
But this is not the real way to win games consistently. Those skills should be reserved for comeback wins, last minute drives, broken plays etc. And you really don't want that many broken plays. Part of that problem is that we are asking/gameplanning a lot of hero ball--longer passes--that inherently are lower completion percentage, higher risk, more time in pocket plays. The aDOT and Big time throw stats are proof of that--and so are the sacks and consequent fumbles.
The managing the game part is what I want to see next. While the term "game manager" is typically used in a derogatory manner to describe a Kirk Cousins-ish type--that is not what I'm talking about. When its there you take the easy stuff--sometimes taking a shot long if its open. Its the full package--like when we saw Rodgers play us last. I saw a lot of screens and short reads--but also some strikes when needed. That balance is what makes a true franchise QB. Getting rid of it quick frustrates D's, limits sack exposure and moves the sticks if done well. It also sets up the big play--now they don't blitz and they sit on the short route---boom hit them long. So far its something that Nagy is unable to orchestrate
with any regularity.
And I don't think the managing side should be taken as the easier skill. Its easier arm wise for sure. But it amounts to quick reads and getting rid of the ball quickly. Out of the rooks we know Mac Jones definitely has THAT. I would not underestimate that skill. Looking at Fields release time in "nextgen" stats he doesn't hold the ball that long--he gets rid of it the same time as Mahomes and actually slightly faster than Murray. So he's not hopelessly outclassed. For reference Mac Jones is already ranked 5th best, a hair trigger faster than Rodgers--so he's already elite in that regard. In any case Fields is not an extreme outlier in that regard--so its not a red flag. FYI Zach Wilson is dead last and this might be a red flag for him. Its not an end all be all-Tua is 3rd fastest but he hasn't been tearing it up either.
This is also on the coach/team, etc. What we have seen is the flash and sizzle-make the kid throw 15 yard deep routes all day is what they have been doing. No one else is doing that--not Brady or Rodgers. I'm not saying Fields is better at it--just we are asking him to do it and he's doing it. But these are inherently "worse" plays conversion wise plays, hence his efficiency is still mediocre. Its high risk / reward--and I'm not sure I want to be "building" a gambler. This happens a lot on bad teams and it becomes a doom cycle for young QBs forced to make less than optimal plays because of poor gameplan and getting behind and needing/trying to make the big play. This is why I want Nagy outta here.
The "steak" is if he can minimize mistakes and consistently convert 3rd downs, avoid turnovers and march down the field keeping our defense off the field. Not that I don't want the sizzle--but you also need to be efficient--a lot that is on the scheme. We simply don't pass to RB's or run almost any behind the line passes. Its 90% run or long pass only--which he's been acing if you grade on that curve --which is what those stats are showing.
I still have major scheme and playcalling issues--but the kid looks like under the right coaching and scheme he has something--but with all the bad we saw early he will need to show more good now to really be 100% confident.