Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

[nate33]

Spoiler:

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That study doesn't pass the smell test.

It says that in the month of September, 40,274 unvaccinated 18-29 year-olds contracted Covid and 84 of them died. That's an infection fatality ratio of 0.2%, or 1 in 500. We have lots of data (from the pre-vaccine era) that shows that the IFR of Covid for 18-29 year-olds is on the order of 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000. Essentially, the study is saying that unvaccinated people in Texas are dying at 20X the national rate.

I assume that Texas has fairly accurate data for deaths (though there is that pesky distinction between deaths by Covid and deaths with Covid), which means their data on infections is off by an order of magnitude. With infection rate measurement that erroneous, I don't see how the infection data can be useful.

Death rates for 18-29 are actually lower nationally around 4,618 deaths (https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true) for 8.4 million cases https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254271/us-total-number-of-covid-cases-by-age-group/. So it seems that unvaccinated Texans are doing worse nationally in that subset if it is 1 out of 500.

But the big point is that deaths in the 50 and older crowd is higher which is where more than 85-90% of the deaths are occurring nationally. Less than 1% of the deaths are occurring between 18-29 demographic https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true

Still, that doesn't mean that those in the younger demographic don't have side effects. And of course they can spread them to more critically vulnerable people in the population. In August only around 50% of nursing home workers were vaccinated https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/13/coronavirus-texas-nursing-homes-staff/

My 1 in 10,000 number was pre-vaccine. Obviously, post-vaccine, the IFR has dropped.

And there's no way Texas actually has an IFR of 1 in 500 for 18-29. My point is, their data for number of infections is clearly incomplete, rendering the entire study pointless.

[Kanyewest]

That study doesn't pass the smell test.

It says that in the month of September, 40,274 unvaccinated 18-29 year-olds contracted Covid and 84 of them died. That's an infection fatality ratio of 0.2%, or 1 in 500. We have lots of data (from the pre-vaccine era) that shows that the IFR of Covid for 18-29 year-olds is on the order of 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000. Essentially, the study is saying that unvaccinated people in Texas are dying at 20X the national rate.

I assume that Texas has fairly accurate data for deaths (though there is that pesky distinction between deaths by Covid and deaths with Covid), which means their data on infections is off by an order of magnitude. With infection rate measurement that erroneous, I don't see how the infection data can be useful.

Death rates for 18-29 are actually lower nationally around 4,618 deaths (https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true) for 8.4 million cases https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254271/us-total-number-of-covid-cases-by-age-group/. So it seems that unvaccinated Texans are doing worse nationally in that subset if it is 1 out of 500.

But the big point is that deaths in the 50 and older crowd is higher which is where more than 85-90% of the deaths are occurring nationally. Less than 1% of the deaths are occurring between 18-29 demographic https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true

Still, that doesn't mean that those in the younger demographic don't have side effects. And of course they can spread them to more critically vulnerable people in the population. In August only around 50% of nursing home workers were vaccinated https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/13/coronavirus-texas-nursing-homes-staff/

My 1 in 10,000 number was pre-vaccine. Obviously, post-vaccine, the IFR has dropped.

And there's no way Texas actually has an IFR of 1 in 500 for 18-29. My point is, their data for number of infections is clearly incomplete, rending the entire study pointless.

Disagree. It is entirely possible. The fatality rate difference represents only a .15% difference in overall fatalities from the national average and it is a low sample size for 1 month. Not to mention that Texans may be at higher risk due to other factors (obesity).

Anyways I would be more concerned about the facts from the 55 and older demographic. Even the 85 and older demographic has 50 times the fatalities of the 18-29 crowd nationally.

[Kanyewest]

According to the New York Times, the gap in COVID19 death toll between red & blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point: 25 of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from Covid, 3Xs higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDte3EvWEAAWmxy?format=png&name=small

[nate33]

According to the New York Times, the gap in COVID19 death toll between red & blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point: 25 of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from Covid, 3Xs higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDte3EvWEAAWmxy?format=png&name=small

Interesting. I wonder what the data looks like in 2020 pre vaccine. Eyeballing that chart, I don't see much of a change between early in 2021 and late in 2021 in percentage terms, which leads me to believe that the vaccination rate isn't a primary cause, though it surely plays some role.

A big factor is that Trump counties are older. They're probably fatter too. This chart would be much more illuminating if it adjusted for age.

[Kanyewest]

Link to the study https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/08/briefing/covid-death-toll-red-america.html (I used up my free preview so am no longer able to read it)

[dckingsfan]

Why public policy matters...

Read on Twitter

[Kanyewest]

https://greekcitytimes.com/2021/12/03/italian-used-fake-silicone-arm-while-getting-vaccinated/

Italian man fails to get vaccinated with a fake arm

[nate33]

Why public policy matters...

Read on Twitter

The article is behind a paywall, but it surely isn't telling the whole story.

According to Wisconsin's Covid stats page, in July, when there were a total of 75 Covid hospitalizations in the entire state, the hospital capacity was 84% utilized. Now, when Covid hospitalizations have risen to 1360, hospitalization usage has risen 91.7%. That suggests there is plenty more hospitalization capacity.

FWIW, last January, there were a whopping 2007 Covid hospitalizations, yet hospital usage was just 85%. Why has hospitalization capacity decreased so much?

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/hosp-data.htm#capacity

[DCZards]

According to the New York Times, the gap in COVID19 death toll between red & blue America has grown faster over the past month than at any previous point: 25 of every 100,000 residents of heavily Trump counties died from Covid, 3Xs higher than the rate in heavily Biden counties.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDte3EvWEAAWmxy?format=png&name=small

Interesting. I wonder what the data looks like in 2020 pre vaccine. Eyeballing that chart, I don't see much of a change between early in 2021 and late in 2021 in percentage terms, which leads me to believe that the vaccination rate isn't a primary cause, though it surely plays some role.

A big factor is that Trump counties are older. They're probably fatter too. This chart would be much more illuminating if it adjusted for age.

Older, fatter and, most importantly, far less likely to be vaccinated. That’s a recipe for disaster and death.

[Dat2U]

Just wanna say I'm disgusted at people who have faked or lied about their vax status. Stand up for what you believe in! Antonio Brown & his teammate should have been suspended for the rest of year and referred to authorities for presenting a fake card. I'm anti mandate as they come but this is not the answer.

[dckingsfan]

The moment that broke Cassie Alexander came nine months into the pandemic. As an intensive-care-unit nurse of 14 years, Alexander had seen plenty of “Hellraiser stuff,” she told me. But when COVID-19 hit her Bay Area hospital, she witnessed “death on a scale I had never seen before.”

and

The senselessness of the death, and her guilt over her own resentment, messed her up. Weeks later, when the same family called to ask if the staff had really done everything they could, “it was like being punched in the gut,” she told me. She had given everything—to that patient, and to the stream of others who had died in the same room. She felt like a stranger to herself, a commodity to her hospital, and an outsider to her own relatives, who downplayed the pandemic despite everything she told them. In April, she texted her friends: “Nothing like feeling strongly suicidal at a job where you’re supposed to be keeping people alive.” Shortly after, she was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder, and she left her job.

https://www.asrn.org/journal-advanced-practice-nursing/2653-why-nurses-are-quitting-in-droves.html

[dckingsfan]

Anecdotally, on my block are two ER docs and ICU doc and an ICU nurse. All of them are looking to move out of the ER and ICU now.

One more thing - the ICU nurse is especially pissed off that travel nurses make triple her wage. Two of her cousins that worked in the ER in rural Texas quit to become travel nurses.

We have a mess on our hands... Covid is just exposing the fragility of our current healthcare system.

[nate33]

Anecdotally, on my block are two ER docs and ICU doc and an ICU nurse. All of them are looking to move out of the ER and ICU now.

One more thing - the ICU nurse is especially pissed off that travel nurses make triple her wage. Two of her cousins that worked in the ER in rural Texas quit to become travel nurses.

We have a mess on our hands... Covid is just exposing the fragility of our current healthcare system.

Firing thousands of nurses because they won't get vaccinated (despite having superior natural immunity) isn't helping either.

[Kanyewest]

It looks like it is less than 1 percent of hospital employees that have been let go as of November 23, 2021 at least according to Fierce Healthcare because of refusal of vaccinations.

“If you look at healthcare systems that have actually mandated this, they’ve retained over 99% of their workforce,” he said in support of the mandates during an August press event. “Their workforce does go along when the employer requires it.”

Also gives several figures for hospitals - total employees- it seems to be true at least from the 10 that I checked.

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/how-many-employees-have-hospitals-lost-to-vaccine-mandates-numbers-so-far

[dckingsfan]

It looks like it is less than 1 percent of hospital employees that have been let go as of November 23, 2021 at least according to Fierce Healthcare because of refusal of vaccinations.

“If you look at healthcare systems that have actually mandated this, they’ve retained over 99% of their workforce,” he said in support of the mandates during an August press event. “Their workforce does go along when the employer requires it.”

Also gives several figures for hospitals - total employees- it seems to be true at least from the 10 that I checked.

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/how-many-employees-have-hospitals-lost-to-vaccine-mandates-numbers-so-far

And when you look at actual nurses and doctors - it is a fraction of a percent. Not only that - docs and nurses prefer to be around other vaccinated doctors and nurses making hiring easier for those hospitals with mandates.

The disinformation out there is epic.

[nate33]

It looks like it is less than 1 percent of hospital employees that have been let go as of November 23, 2021 at least according to Fierce Healthcare because of refusal of vaccinations.

“If you look at healthcare systems that have actually mandated this, they’ve retained over 99% of their workforce,” he said in support of the mandates during an August press event. “Their workforce does go along when the employer requires it.”

Also gives several figures for hospitals - total employees- it seems to be true at least from the 10 that I checked.

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/how-many-employees-have-hospitals-lost-to-vaccine-mandates-numbers-so-far

And when you look at actual nurses and doctors - it is a fraction of a percent. Not only that - docs and nurses prefer to be around other vaccinated doctors and nurses making hiring easier for those hospitals with mandates.

The disinformation out there is epic.

Indeed. The disinformation is indeed epic. But not in the way you think it is.

That Fierce Healthcare link may or may not be accurate, but they are only tracking people who resign specifically because of the vaccine mandate. Are they tracking people that retire? Or people that fail to apply for jobs? You wouldn't have hiring campaigns promoting the absence of a vaccine mandate if the vaccine mandate wasn't a major factor in the loss of employees.

Here's an article that says a Houston Hospital 86ed the vaccine mandate because their modeling showed they would lose 15% of their nurses.

I suspect that in areas where the nurses aren't organized, most ultimately bow down to the mandate rather than lose their jobs, and that's where you get that 1% number. But in areas where the nurses are organized, they are either quitting in mass, or they are convincing the hospitals not to impose the mandate (or offer exceptions).

[Kanyewest]

It looks like it is less than 1 percent of hospital employees that have been let go as of November 23, 2021 at least according to Fierce Healthcare because of refusal of vaccinations.

“If you look at healthcare systems that have actually mandated this, they’ve retained over 99% of their workforce,” he said in support of the mandates during an August press event. “Their workforce does go along when the employer requires it.”

Also gives several figures for hospitals - total employees- it seems to be true at least from the 10 that I checked.

https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/hospitals/how-many-employees-have-hospitals-lost-to-vaccine-mandates-numbers-so-far

And when you look at actual nurses and doctors - it is a fraction of a percent. Not only that - docs and nurses prefer to be around other vaccinated doctors and nurses making hiring easier for those hospitals with mandates.

The disinformation out there is epic.

Indeed. The disinformation is indeed epic. But not in the way you think it is.

That Fierce Healthcare link may or may not be accurate, but they are only tracking people who resign specifically because of the vaccine mandate. Are they tracking people that retire? Or people that fail to apply for jobs? You wouldn't have hiring campaigns promoting the absence of a vaccine mandate if the vaccine mandate wasn't a major factor in the loss of employees.

Here's an article that says a Houston Hospital 86ed the vaccine mandate because their modeling showed they would lose 15% of their nurses.

I suspect that in areas where the nurses aren't organized, most ultimately bow down to the mandate rather than lose their jobs, and that's where you get that 1% number. But in areas where the nurses are organized, they are either quitting in mass, or they are convincing the hospitals not to impose the mandate (or offer exceptions).

I still find it hard to imagine that many of these workers are nurses. Are they willing to forfeit a 100k annual salary where they already invested time and money in their education that generally accepts vaccinations?

I imagine more people who are retiring in general due to Covid being more stressful plus of course those people would be at higher risk of contacting covid..

[Kanyewest]

"Perhaps the most highly vaccinated large county in America, according to New York Times data, is Montgomery County, Md., just outside the District of Columbia. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show 93 percent of those 12 and older there are fully vaccinated, compared to around 70 percent nationally. The number dying over the past week is eight times as high nationally — 3.4 per 1 million — as it is in Montgomery County — 0.4 per 1 million — even as Montgomery County is near some virus hotspots."

I think Montgomery County was an initial hotspot at the start of the pandemic.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/04/big-counties-are-proving-how-vaccination-works/

[dckingsfan]

And when you look at actual nurses and doctors - it is a fraction of a percent. Not only that - docs and nurses prefer to be around other vaccinated doctors and nurses making hiring easier for those hospitals with mandates.

The disinformation out there is epic.

Indeed. The disinformation is indeed epic. But not in the way you think it is.

That Fierce Healthcare link may or may not be accurate, but they are only tracking people who resign specifically because of the vaccine mandate. Are they tracking people that retire? Or people that fail to apply for jobs? You wouldn't have hiring campaigns promoting the absence of a vaccine mandate if the vaccine mandate wasn't a major factor in the loss of employees.

Here's an article that says a Houston Hospital 86ed the vaccine mandate because their modeling showed they would lose 15% of their nurses.

I suspect that in areas where the nurses aren't organized, most ultimately bow down to the mandate rather than lose their jobs, and that's where you get that 1% number. But in areas where the nurses are organized, they are either quitting in mass, or they are convincing the hospitals not to impose the mandate (or offer exceptions).

I still find it hard to imagine that many of these workers are nurses. Are they willing to forfeit a 100k annual salary where they already invested time and money in their education that generally accepts vaccinations?

I imagine more people who are retiring in general due to Covid being more stressful plus of course those people would be at higher risk of contacting covid..

Especially when they were already vaccinated in the 90+% (docs) range... those arguing that we shouldn't mandate vaccines for those that are directly exposed to those with multiple comorbidities and the immunocompromised aren't thinking this through. And from that article:

A federal judge dismissed the suit, and Houston Methodist lost 153 employees who either resigned or were terminated. “I’m really, really glad we did it,” Boom says of the mandate, particularly now that the hospital is facing another surge. About 838 Covid patients were in his hospital system as of Aug. 24, a number that’s on the rise, breaking records set in previous surges.

And yes, Methodist went through (note they have tens of thousands of employees) with their vaccine mandate and it worked to their advantage. It turns out that ER/ICU docs and nurses want to work with other vaccinated ER/ICU docs and nurses. Go figure.

And yet, the disinformation continues. The primary reason that ER/ICU docs and nurses are leaving is burnout. Hence why the vaccinate mandate is our best public policy to keep the hospital systems collective heads above water.

[dckingsfan]

Vermont. They are the highest vaccinated state in the union. Despite that, they are the worst they have been for the pandemic as far as cases go.

Fatalities? Goes between 0-2 per day. They have had 6600 cases since November 15th and 22 deaths. The number of Covid ICU beds occupied in Vermont has also been low.

The CDC still thinks we are only catching 1 in 4 infections, that's really low fatality rate and its due to a high vaccination rate.

The vaccines work really well at preventing hospitalizations and deaths from Covid and also not overwhelming the hospital system (keeping additional deaths low).