Post#1797 » by nate33 » Sun Jan 2, 2022 4:52 pm
I just did a deep dive to try and figure out what Beal's offseason options would be, assuming we don't extend him during the middle of this season. I was trying to get a handle on what the worst-case scenario would be if we were forced to take the best offer available in a sign-and-trade.
The first thing I looked at was who would actually have the cap room to sign him outright without having to move heaven and Earth to dump salary. At team would need to get down to about $78M in cap obligations to generate the cap room to sign Beal to a Max. The list is small:
Detroit - they wouldn't go after Beal and Beal wouldn't go there.
OKC - they wouldn't go after Beal and Beal wouldn't go there.
San Antonio - with their two best players being guards and the rest of team in rebuilding mode, I don't see them going after Beal and I don't see Beal going there.
Orlando - They have the cap room and a need at SG, but there's only a small possibility they'd go after Beal given his age. In any case, I seriously doubt Beal would join them unless they really turned the corner late in the season and started looking like a force to be reckoned with.
The next thing I looked at were teams who could conceivably make some moves to get far enough under the cap to acquire Beal. I was trying to get a handle on who they would have to dump, and what assets it would cost to dump them. The way I see it, this puts a realistic floor on a Beal S&T because they would presumably rather just trade us those assets they are paying to dump contracts rather than involve a 3rd team. I came up with the following teams:
Memphis - They'll have a payroll of $91M going into the offseason. They will need to dump about $13M in salary, a bit more after accounting for their 2022 1st and the 2022 Utah 1st owed to them. It really looks like they'd have to dump Steven Adams $18M contract, which would likely cost two 1sts. Beal would give them a difficult salary structure going forward because Morant will cost a max in 2023 (possibly a supermax if he makes All-NBA) and they're already paying JJJ $25M a year and Dillan Brooks is up for a new contract in 2023. I figure if they're adding Beal, they won't plan on paying Brooks, which means Brooks would be included in a S&T for Beal. So a Memphis S&T would basically be Adams + Brooks + two 1sts.
Cleveland - They have a payroll of $106.7M, but $28.9M of that is owed to Kevin Love. If they move Love in a pure salary dump, they would have a payroll of $78M or so and be in position to go after Beal. Beal seems like a pretty good fit, though his age is a bit higher than the rest of the team. I figure it would take at least two 1sts to dump Love for pure cap room because the market of teams who could absorb him is limited to San Antonio, Orlando and Detroit. So a Memphis S&T would start with an offer of Love plus two 1sts for Beal. Maybe they would include Okoro.
Toronto - They have a payroll of $112M, but $33.6M of that is tied up in Siakam. If they dump him, they would have the room to go after Beal. But Siakam is already 27 years old, has been fairly lackluster and injury prone for 2 years, and seems to have an attitude problem. Would anyone just take Siakam off their hands without demanding compensation? Again, only San Antonio, Detroit, and Orlando have the raw cap space to absorb him. He doesn't seem like a San Antonio type of guy. Orlando has a zillion power forwards. Maybe Detroit considers it? Let's assume Detroit would be willing to take on Siakam if Toronto throws in a 1st. That means Toronto would offer us a S&T of Siakam and a 1st for Beal. I'm not sure Toronto gives up Siakam and a 1st for the privilege of paying Beal $45M a year, but if they did, that's what the S&T would look like.
Boston - I honestly don't see any way Boston can get far enough under the cap to make a credible threat to go after Beal in free agency. They'd have to dump Horford's $26M salary, as well as Marcus Smart and Josh Richardson.
So basically, the worst we'd do in an offseason S&T for Beal would be Siakam and a 1st, or Adams, Brooks and two 1sts, or Love, Okoro and two 1sts. I'm not thrilled about any of these packages, but at least I'm a bit reassured about standing pat on a midseason Beal trade and waiting for the offseason. We aren't going to lose Beal for nothing. I suspect this is why Tommy Sheppard doesn't seem to be panicking.
Note, other teams could surely engage us in Beal trade talks - something like New Orleans involving Brandon Ingram and picks, or Philly involving Simmons, or Boston involving Jaylen Brown. But they would have to give us fair value. They couldn't credibly threaten to sign Beal away from us, effectively reducing Beal's trade value.
