FNQ wrote:The 4th year option is very interesting though. I think the beginning of next year will be very important to determine if they do exercise it, and I'd imagine that if they were to trade him, it would be before that decision comes to pass. If it plays out like this year, we're talking 6-7 NBA games before its time to make the call. So my guess is that Wiseman walks into a role to start the season, and those games will loom heavy.. but we'll see
6-7 NBA games are an awfully small sample, however. The coaches can most certainly take away more from training camp and pre-season than from this small sample.
But let's just assume they behave as you expect or want them to. They do not trade Wiseman but are not sure about whether to exercise his option either to start the season. So they have a couple of games to evaluate him, in which case they most certainly want those games to be actual NBA games. So what are their options?
1) They pick up his option because he showed them enough. In that case, I doubt he'd play in SC. Because why would he? If he played well enough to start the season (and before in training camp) to pick up his option, he can be penciled in to continue to play some consistent minutes for us.
2) They pick up his option but he has not shown them enough. That would be a value-driven move in order to trade him. In which case I don't really see the value of having him play in SC until a trade is found, and I'd think that it's probably a worse strategy to make a trade during the season instead of during the off-season.
3) They do not pick up his option because he hasn't shown them enough. In that case, he's gone and the Warriors are essentially forced to accept pennies just to get at least some minor value back. Their negotiation position in this scenario would be much worse compared to the time around the draft or after the draft but before the season has started.
In any case, I don't really see the value in having him play in SC (provided he is fully healthy and in shape to start the season) and I don't see the value in taking him into the season if the FO and coaches have doubts about his short- and long-term utility for the team. The only scenario in which it makes sense to me to pick up his option and play him in SC is if the FO is somehow convinced that he's a long-term solution but don't think he's even ready to play consistent back-up minutes in the third year of his contract – which, to me, seems highly unlikely and also a tough pill to swallow for Lacob and co. who'd be asked to really pony up on a huge gamble.
edit: And to clarify my position: I am not in favor of selling low, so the offer would have to be really enticing. My expectation would be that they keep him, pick up his option and pencil him in for at least a consistent back-up role to see what he can do. If he really doesn't show anything, they can re-evaluate the situation closer to the trade deadline or otherwise at the end of next year. But if they have serious concerns about his ability to even play back-up minutes next season, they should move him before the season starts for a useful player or solid prospect.
