reanimator wrote:Nice.
Why so low on Cason Wallace?
I assume with Black so high, you're all in on him as a scorer/shooter, at least enough to leverage his playmaking. What gives you such confident?
Jarace is a kid who was not someone I would deem as a competent perimeter shooter. Are you buying in on the 3pt%? And if not, what do you see there that makes you so high on him? I assume the defensive versatility and playmaking.
Thanks for the feedback.
Re: Wallace. I actually thought I wasn't that low on him at #17. I like him. I suppose compared to those who have him higher, I see him as having a lower ceiling. My expectation for him is to become a lower-level starting PG or a very good PG off the bench. Someone who defends, runs the offense, hit 3s when open – but I don't see him as an offensive engine. Think Tyus Jones or DeAnthony Melton. Best case scenario is someone like Jrue Holiday perhaps? A PG in that mold is a tough sell for in the lottery but I like his floor. Of course if he reaches his ceiling then he would have been underdrafted in hindsight but that's of course true for all players on that list.
Re: Black. I was actually a bit lower on him in HS but he has convinced me more and more in college (and part of the ranking is also that I do not see the draft as anything special (yet) after the top 2, although I like the top 10 a lot). He shoots better than I expected but most importantly, he has been more aggressive at times and he has shown finishes with strength on his drives, and his defense has really translated well. I also love his feel for the game. I see him in the mold of Cade Cunningham. Cade was a better shooter and more aggressive and advanced scorer, so I have him as a better prospect coming out of college – but besides that, Black can compete with Cade and even has advantages over him in some areas. So long as he is aggressive enough as a scorer when he needs to, I think he can potentially lead an NBA offense; not as a pure scorer but as a primary decision-maker who is trusted to make those around him better. So it's not that I'm all in on him as a shooter or scorer, but I do think he has shown the potential to be good enough that all his other qualities will make a big impact on an NBA team.
Re: Jarace. I think he'll be a stretch big. Not at 40% or high volume but enough to make teams respect him. I am high on him because I really like his all-around profile. Good rebounder, switchable big who should be able to play the 5 when teams size down, positive connective passer, respectable shooter and he even has some on-ball ability (not enough to just give him the ball to create but enough intrigue to have his value climb). He should be a better finisher and draw more fouls around the rim with his physical ability, so this is something I'll watch out for the rest of the season. I think he should have appeal for similar reasons that Banchero had out of college – although Jarace is a worse scorer and worse on the ball, but better defensively. Now, Banchero has really taken his physicality to the next level in the NBA and Jarace will have to do the same if he wants to reach his ceiling, and we'll have to see where that goes. To draw another comparison: I also believe Jarace could be a more mobile and better passing version of current Isaiah Stewart, which would not be awe-inspiring but a really good NBA player. That being said, I currently have him #5 but if he continues to struggle (relatively speaking) with his finishing closer to the rim and continues to have an abysmal FTr, I can certainly see dropping him to the back-end of the top 10 (already I have the 5-9 range as very close with players in the 10-13 range who could easily end up in that range, too) or even the late lottery (I have a hard time seeing him lower than that unless his performance drops off considerably).
