Congrats to Wilt. If you did NOT cast a ballot for Wilt in the last thread, please go to the secondary thread and declare which year you think is his best.
Now for #5; have at it!
Peaks Project #5
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Peaks Project #5
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trex_8063
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Peaks Project #5
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Re: Peaks Project #5
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JordansBulls
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Re: Peaks Project #5
1st ballot selection: Kareem 1971 - Dominated on the season, playoffs and also with a fascinating record of 12-2 in the playoffs.
2nd ballot selection: Hakeem 1994 - phenomonal season on both ends of the floor, won league and finals and DPOY
3rd ballot selection: Duncan 2003 - Great overall season especially in the regular season and dominant team record, ended the 3x LAL title as well
--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
KAJ 1971: 29.0, 0.33, -----------25.0, 0.27 (14 playoff games, title)
Hakeem 1994: 25.3, 0.210----------27.7, 0.208 (23 playoff games, title)
Duncan 2003: 26.9, 0.248------------28.4, 0.279 (24 playoff games, title)
Others to consider:
Magic 1987: 27.0, 0.263-------------26.2, 0.265 (18 playoff games, title)
Bird 1986: 25.6, 0.244--------------23.9, 0.263 (23 playoff games, title)
Moses Malone 1983: 25.1, 0.248 -----25.7, 0.260 (13 playoff games, title)
Dwyane Wade 2006: 27.6, 0.239-------26.9, 0.240 (23 playoff games, title)
Julius Erving 1976: 28.7, 0.262-----32.0, 0.321 (13 playoff games, title) - ABA
2nd ballot selection: Hakeem 1994 - phenomonal season on both ends of the floor, won league and finals and DPOY
3rd ballot selection: Duncan 2003 - Great overall season especially in the regular season and dominant team record, ended the 3x LAL title as well
--------- RS PER, WS48, --------- PER, WS48 playoffs
KAJ 1971: 29.0, 0.33, -----------25.0, 0.27 (14 playoff games, title)
Hakeem 1994: 25.3, 0.210----------27.7, 0.208 (23 playoff games, title)
Duncan 2003: 26.9, 0.248------------28.4, 0.279 (24 playoff games, title)
Others to consider:
Magic 1987: 27.0, 0.263-------------26.2, 0.265 (18 playoff games, title)
Bird 1986: 25.6, 0.244--------------23.9, 0.263 (23 playoff games, title)
Moses Malone 1983: 25.1, 0.248 -----25.7, 0.260 (13 playoff games, title)
Dwyane Wade 2006: 27.6, 0.239-------26.9, 0.240 (23 playoff games, title)
Julius Erving 1976: 28.7, 0.262-----32.0, 0.321 (13 playoff games, title) - ABA
"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Joao Saraiva
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Here go my votes:
1st Kareem 1977
I didn't see a ton from that season. As a matter of fact, I saw some youtube clips and a couple of full games (thanks Quotatious).
In the regular season Kareem has fantastic stats: 26.2 PPG 16.3 RPG 3.9 APG 1.2 SPG 3.2 BPG 27.8 PER 60.8 ts% 28.3 WS/48. However, for Kareem, that's hardly his best regular season.
But when ranking players (even career wise) I usually put a lot of weight on their playoff performance, and I put a bit more emphasis on their offense than theirdefense.
Kareem in the playoffs:
34.6 PPG 17.7 RPG 4.1 APG 1.7 SPG 3.5 BPG 32.4 PER 64.6 ts% 33.2 WS/48
How insane is this stat line? He was scoring fantastic volume, on godly efficiency, rebounding at elite numbers, involving his teammates and defending really well. From the clips I've seen I feel like his blocks are more of a man to man defense product than from rim protection (more, I didn't say he didn't get them from rim protection too). I don't see Hakeem's impact on D from Kareem, but I honestly feel like his offensive impact is absolutely stunning. He was just unstoppable.
If not for his regular season I'd probably be wondering if this season deserved to be the #1 peak of all time. It's definitely up there for the best playoff run ever.
2. Hakeem Olajuwon 1994
RS: 27.3 PPG 11.9 RPG 3.6 APG 1.6 SPG 3.7 BPG 3.4 TOPG 25.3 PER 56.5ts% 21 WS/48.
58 wins for Houston in the regular season. Onyle behind the Sonics who had a great team. Hakeem won MVP and DPOY and it was well deserved. Great impact on both sides of the court, leading a team with no 2nd star (despite having a good cast) to that great record. He was scoring, blocking, rebounding, assisting, stealing and living up to his legendary reputation, both on offense and specially on D.
Playoffs: 28.9 PPG 11.0 RPG 4.3 APG 1.7 SPG 4.0 BPG 3.6 TOPG 27.7 PER 56.8 ts% 20.8 WS/48.
Jordan had Pippen. LeBron had Bosh/Wade. Shaq had Kobe Bryant. Hakeem had Kenny Smith, Maxwell, Otis, Horry and Sam Cassel. It's a great cast don't get me wrong, but he won without a 2nd great player like those guys had. And despite being great on offense, the most interesting thing to look at is his D. Karl Malone in the WCF scored 26 PPG but at 50.5ts%. Barkley scored 23.4 PPG at 53.2ts% in the 2nd round vs Houston, and Ewing scored 18.9 at 39%ts in the NBA finals! Those numbers will indeed show the kind of impact Hakeem had on D.
Also he won MVP, DPOY and finals MVP in the same season. That's a very restrict club: only Hakeem has done that.
3. Magic Johnson 1987
RS: 23.9 PPG 12.2 APG 6.3 RPG 1.7 SPG 0.5 BPG 3.8 TOPG 27 PER 60.2ts% 26.3 WS/48.
In the regular season the Lakers won 65 games. It wasn't only Magic, they had a great team. Still Magic was the best player on that team, and the greats that played with him profited from his great leadership and amazing passing skills. He was scoring good volume, on great efficiency, and his playmaking was at the level that few ever reached (maybe Stockton?). He won the MVP award this season.
Playoffs: 21.8 PPG 12.2 APG 7.7 RPG 1.7 SPG 0.4 BPG 2.8 TOPG 26.2 PER 60.7ts% 26.5 WS/48.
Lakers just destroyed their oponents in the West. So Magic scored less points than he could have. But let's see his finals performances:
26.2 PPG 13 APG 8 RPG 2.3 SPG 0.3 BPG on 59%ts. He had 2 TOPG. So his assist/TO ratio is not comparable to any other player I've ever seen playing in the finals. He outscored Bird, with more efficiency, he had a ton more assists, and was only 2 RPG behind him and turned the ball much less. He even had more steals than Bird! What a great display to end a great season. Magic ended up winning the finals MVP, obviously.
1st Kareem 1977
I didn't see a ton from that season. As a matter of fact, I saw some youtube clips and a couple of full games (thanks Quotatious).
In the regular season Kareem has fantastic stats: 26.2 PPG 16.3 RPG 3.9 APG 1.2 SPG 3.2 BPG 27.8 PER 60.8 ts% 28.3 WS/48. However, for Kareem, that's hardly his best regular season.
But when ranking players (even career wise) I usually put a lot of weight on their playoff performance, and I put a bit more emphasis on their offense than theirdefense.
Kareem in the playoffs:
34.6 PPG 17.7 RPG 4.1 APG 1.7 SPG 3.5 BPG 32.4 PER 64.6 ts% 33.2 WS/48
How insane is this stat line? He was scoring fantastic volume, on godly efficiency, rebounding at elite numbers, involving his teammates and defending really well. From the clips I've seen I feel like his blocks are more of a man to man defense product than from rim protection (more, I didn't say he didn't get them from rim protection too). I don't see Hakeem's impact on D from Kareem, but I honestly feel like his offensive impact is absolutely stunning. He was just unstoppable.
If not for his regular season I'd probably be wondering if this season deserved to be the #1 peak of all time. It's definitely up there for the best playoff run ever.
2. Hakeem Olajuwon 1994
RS: 27.3 PPG 11.9 RPG 3.6 APG 1.6 SPG 3.7 BPG 3.4 TOPG 25.3 PER 56.5ts% 21 WS/48.
58 wins for Houston in the regular season. Onyle behind the Sonics who had a great team. Hakeem won MVP and DPOY and it was well deserved. Great impact on both sides of the court, leading a team with no 2nd star (despite having a good cast) to that great record. He was scoring, blocking, rebounding, assisting, stealing and living up to his legendary reputation, both on offense and specially on D.
Playoffs: 28.9 PPG 11.0 RPG 4.3 APG 1.7 SPG 4.0 BPG 3.6 TOPG 27.7 PER 56.8 ts% 20.8 WS/48.
Jordan had Pippen. LeBron had Bosh/Wade. Shaq had Kobe Bryant. Hakeem had Kenny Smith, Maxwell, Otis, Horry and Sam Cassel. It's a great cast don't get me wrong, but he won without a 2nd great player like those guys had. And despite being great on offense, the most interesting thing to look at is his D. Karl Malone in the WCF scored 26 PPG but at 50.5ts%. Barkley scored 23.4 PPG at 53.2ts% in the 2nd round vs Houston, and Ewing scored 18.9 at 39%ts in the NBA finals! Those numbers will indeed show the kind of impact Hakeem had on D.
Also he won MVP, DPOY and finals MVP in the same season. That's a very restrict club: only Hakeem has done that.
3. Magic Johnson 1987
RS: 23.9 PPG 12.2 APG 6.3 RPG 1.7 SPG 0.5 BPG 3.8 TOPG 27 PER 60.2ts% 26.3 WS/48.
In the regular season the Lakers won 65 games. It wasn't only Magic, they had a great team. Still Magic was the best player on that team, and the greats that played with him profited from his great leadership and amazing passing skills. He was scoring good volume, on great efficiency, and his playmaking was at the level that few ever reached (maybe Stockton?). He won the MVP award this season.
Playoffs: 21.8 PPG 12.2 APG 7.7 RPG 1.7 SPG 0.4 BPG 2.8 TOPG 26.2 PER 60.7ts% 26.5 WS/48.
Lakers just destroyed their oponents in the West. So Magic scored less points than he could have. But let's see his finals performances:
26.2 PPG 13 APG 8 RPG 2.3 SPG 0.3 BPG on 59%ts. He had 2 TOPG. So his assist/TO ratio is not comparable to any other player I've ever seen playing in the finals. He outscored Bird, with more efficiency, he had a ton more assists, and was only 2 RPG behind him and turned the ball much less. He even had more steals than Bird! What a great display to end a great season. Magic ended up winning the finals MVP, obviously.
“These guys have been criticized the last few years for not getting to where we’re going, but I’ve always said that the most important thing in sports is to keep trying. Let this be an example of what it means to say it’s never over.” - Jerry Sloan
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Quotatious
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Ballot #1 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77
Ballot #2 - Hakeem Olajuwon '93
Ballot #3 - Tim Duncan '03
Kareem was just the most dominant of these players, individually. He was incredible in the playoffs, even without a title. Really can't hold the fact that his team got swept by Portland, against him. He arguably outplayed peak Walton, if we are talking about their head-to-head matchup. Walton just had a far better team around him. Even just having a legitimate star, 20/10 bigman like Maurice Lucas is a pretty big advantage over anyone that KAJ played with. Lionel Hollins played much better than usual, too (actually, both Lucas and Hollins outscored Walton in that series). Even in the RS, Kareem was arguably the best among these three guys.
Anyway, it's very close. Before the project, I had Hakeem at 5, Kareem at 6 and Duncan at 7. Now I've switched Abdul-Jabbar and Olajuwon, but I still think it's extremely close.
'93 was Hakeem's best individual season, statistically, and also defensively (I think '90 was probably a little better defensively than '93, but '93 was better than '94 and even more so compared to '95).
As I said in the previous thread, taking '93 as Hakeem's peak and '03 as Duncan's peak seemed to be inconsistent, but now I just think that there's a clear edge in favor of '03 Duncan over '02 Duncan (his series against the Lakers in '03 was clearly better than his series in '02, especially in terms of scoring, particularly in crunch time, but also being able to control the game on both ends of the court). With Hakeem, I don't see a clear difference like that. '94 was better slightly better offensively (but really, the gap is extremely small), but '93 makes up for that on defense. His team lost game 7 against Seattle by only 3 points in '93, and won game 7 in two different series in '94 by 6 (in the finals against New York) and by 10 (in the second round against Phoenix), so the outcome was close enough in both cases that I believe it didn't depend on Hakeem's individual performance to great extent, which could change my opinion (like it did with '02 and '03 Duncan, where I see a significant difference in favor of '03).
'03 Duncan also looks better in terms of on/off court ORtg differential, and had a better rating in single year RAPM.
Ballot #2 - Hakeem Olajuwon '93
Ballot #3 - Tim Duncan '03
Kareem was just the most dominant of these players, individually. He was incredible in the playoffs, even without a title. Really can't hold the fact that his team got swept by Portland, against him. He arguably outplayed peak Walton, if we are talking about their head-to-head matchup. Walton just had a far better team around him. Even just having a legitimate star, 20/10 bigman like Maurice Lucas is a pretty big advantage over anyone that KAJ played with. Lionel Hollins played much better than usual, too (actually, both Lucas and Hollins outscored Walton in that series). Even in the RS, Kareem was arguably the best among these three guys.
Anyway, it's very close. Before the project, I had Hakeem at 5, Kareem at 6 and Duncan at 7. Now I've switched Abdul-Jabbar and Olajuwon, but I still think it's extremely close.
'93 was Hakeem's best individual season, statistically, and also defensively (I think '90 was probably a little better defensively than '93, but '93 was better than '94 and even more so compared to '95).
As I said in the previous thread, taking '93 as Hakeem's peak and '03 as Duncan's peak seemed to be inconsistent, but now I just think that there's a clear edge in favor of '03 Duncan over '02 Duncan (his series against the Lakers in '03 was clearly better than his series in '02, especially in terms of scoring, particularly in crunch time, but also being able to control the game on both ends of the court). With Hakeem, I don't see a clear difference like that. '94 was better slightly better offensively (but really, the gap is extremely small), but '93 makes up for that on defense. His team lost game 7 against Seattle by only 3 points in '93, and won game 7 in two different series in '94 by 6 (in the finals against New York) and by 10 (in the second round against Phoenix), so the outcome was close enough in both cases that I believe it didn't depend on Hakeem's individual performance to great extent, which could change my opinion (like it did with '02 and '03 Duncan, where I see a significant difference in favor of '03).
'03 Duncan also looks better in terms of on/off court ORtg differential, and had a better rating in single year RAPM.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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RSCD3_
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Re: Peaks Project #5
For the second ballot in a roll I've had a heel face turn
1. 03 Tim Duncan
Had a great regular season. Notched it up ridiculously in the playoffs. I'll show many examples here and for kicks compare him to the very similarly talked about season of Hakeem 94's playoffs.
RS
31.6 PP100 on 56.4 TS% (+4.5% above league average )
Playoffs
30.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% (+5.7% above league average )
Playoff Hakeem
35.9 PP100 on 56.8 TS% (+4.0 TS% above league average. )
Slight edge to Hakeem for holding more volume at around the same efficiency.
Rebounding
Regular season 17.5 RP100 on
9.9/27.3/19.0 RB% Splits
Playoffs 19.5 RP100 on
10.3/28.7/19.8 RB% Splits
Playoff Hakeem 14.5 RP100 on
6.8/21.2/14.5 RB% splits
Moderate sized margin to Duncan as he has Hakeem beat on both ends when it comes to rebounding.
Passing
Regular season 5.3 AP100 on 1.51 AST % / TOV % ratio )
Playoffs 6.6 AP100 ( on 1.98 AST % /TOV % ratio )
Playoff Hakeem 5.3 AP100 ( on 1.65 AST % / TOV % ratio )
Hakeem was a great passer for a big but Duncan surpassed him in both the RS and PS. He's a hell of an underrated passer as what he did with that volume of passing is closer to a wing than a center. Decent edge to Tim.
Heck here's the list of 6'9 and up guys who have put together more than one series of over 25 AST% and less than 15 TOV% over 6.0 AP100 in the playoffs
Defense
Regular Season 0.9 SP100, 4.0 BP100, 94 DRTG
Playoffs 0.8 SP100 4.1 BP100, 92 DRTG
Playoff Hakeem 2.2 SP100, 5.0 BP100, 95 DRTG
FWIW I think the gap in stats is larger than the actual gap as Duncan makes up in the steal block department with more consistent effort/motor and a slightly sharper defensive mind. He wasn't the best pick and roll player but neither was Hakeem for all his athleticism. Duncan managed to do a fine job with his length and above average athleticism. Let's call this Duncan by an inch.
With all the simplified categories added up I think tim gets the advantage with more than most would think.
Also his finals were glorious
2. 95 David Robinson
He had everything minus back to the basket scoring you'd look for in traditional bigs. Top tier passing. Goat level defense. Excellent off ball / offensive rebounding. Great at facing up and drawing fouls / finishing. A very good rebounder. His scoring dropped off in the playoffs but he was still very good in other areas.
It's just Duncan managed to outperform him in the playoffs by such an amount, that I think being a playoffs guy I have to put him over.
Stats
RS
36.9 PP100 on 60.5 TS% ( + 6.2% above League Average ) 14.5 RP100 (9.1/22.6/16.2 Rebounding Splits ) 3.9 AP100 ( 1.23 AST % /TOV % ratio. )
120/99 ORTG/DRTG rating
27.3 WS/48, (4.1/4.3) 8.4 BPM, 8.1 VORP
Playoffs 32.6 PP100 on 53.6 TS% ( -0.7% below league average) 15.4 RP100 (10.7/22.2/16.6) 4.0 AP100 (on 1.06 AST% / TOV% ratio )
108 / 98 ORTG/DRTG rating
17.6 WS/48, (2.5/4.2) 6.7 BPM
3rd 1977 Kareem
Excellent volume scoring on great efficiency And that rose to god mode efficiency in the playoffs.
32.7 PP100 on 60.8 TS% ( +9.7 above league average ) along with 16.6 RPG and 4.8 APG and very good defense
And then in the playoffs
37.4 PP100 on 64.4 TS% ( +13.1% above league average ) 19.5 RPG and 4.5 assists per game and still very nice defense
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1. 03 Tim Duncan
Had a great regular season. Notched it up ridiculously in the playoffs. I'll show many examples here and for kicks compare him to the very similarly talked about season of Hakeem 94's playoffs.
RS
31.6 PP100 on 56.4 TS% (+4.5% above league average )
Playoffs
30.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% (+5.7% above league average )
Playoff Hakeem
35.9 PP100 on 56.8 TS% (+4.0 TS% above league average. )
Slight edge to Hakeem for holding more volume at around the same efficiency.
Rebounding
Regular season 17.5 RP100 on
9.9/27.3/19.0 RB% Splits
Playoffs 19.5 RP100 on
10.3/28.7/19.8 RB% Splits
Playoff Hakeem 14.5 RP100 on
6.8/21.2/14.5 RB% splits
Moderate sized margin to Duncan as he has Hakeem beat on both ends when it comes to rebounding.
Passing
Regular season 5.3 AP100 on 1.51 AST % / TOV % ratio )
Playoffs 6.6 AP100 ( on 1.98 AST % /TOV % ratio )
Playoff Hakeem 5.3 AP100 ( on 1.65 AST % / TOV % ratio )
Hakeem was a great passer for a big but Duncan surpassed him in both the RS and PS. He's a hell of an underrated passer as what he did with that volume of passing is closer to a wing than a center. Decent edge to Tim.
Heck here's the list of 6'9 and up guys who have put together more than one series of over 25 AST% and less than 15 TOV% over 6.0 AP100 in the playoffs
Spoiler:
Defense
Regular Season 0.9 SP100, 4.0 BP100, 94 DRTG
Playoffs 0.8 SP100 4.1 BP100, 92 DRTG
Playoff Hakeem 2.2 SP100, 5.0 BP100, 95 DRTG
FWIW I think the gap in stats is larger than the actual gap as Duncan makes up in the steal block department with more consistent effort/motor and a slightly sharper defensive mind. He wasn't the best pick and roll player but neither was Hakeem for all his athleticism. Duncan managed to do a fine job with his length and above average athleticism. Let's call this Duncan by an inch.
With all the simplified categories added up I think tim gets the advantage with more than most would think.
Also his finals were glorious
2. 95 David Robinson
He had everything minus back to the basket scoring you'd look for in traditional bigs. Top tier passing. Goat level defense. Excellent off ball / offensive rebounding. Great at facing up and drawing fouls / finishing. A very good rebounder. His scoring dropped off in the playoffs but he was still very good in other areas.
It's just Duncan managed to outperform him in the playoffs by such an amount, that I think being a playoffs guy I have to put him over.
Stats
RS
36.9 PP100 on 60.5 TS% ( + 6.2% above League Average ) 14.5 RP100 (9.1/22.6/16.2 Rebounding Splits ) 3.9 AP100 ( 1.23 AST % /TOV % ratio. )
120/99 ORTG/DRTG rating
27.3 WS/48, (4.1/4.3) 8.4 BPM, 8.1 VORP
Playoffs 32.6 PP100 on 53.6 TS% ( -0.7% below league average) 15.4 RP100 (10.7/22.2/16.6) 4.0 AP100 (on 1.06 AST% / TOV% ratio )
108 / 98 ORTG/DRTG rating
17.6 WS/48, (2.5/4.2) 6.7 BPM
3rd 1977 Kareem
Excellent volume scoring on great efficiency And that rose to god mode efficiency in the playoffs.
32.7 PP100 on 60.8 TS% ( +9.7 above league average ) along with 16.6 RPG and 4.8 APG and very good defense
And then in the playoffs
37.4 PP100 on 64.4 TS% ( +13.1% above league average ) 19.5 RPG and 4.5 assists per game and still very nice defense
Spoiler:
Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forum[/quote]
Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
I came here to do two things: get lost and slice **** up & I'm all out of directions.
Butler removing rearview mirror in his car as a symbol to never look back
Butler removing rearview mirror in his car as a symbol to never look back
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Re: Peaks Project #5
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RSCD3_
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Quotatious wrote:Ballot #1 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77
Ballot #2 - Hakeem Olajuwon '93
Ballot #3 - Tim Duncan '03
Kareem was just the most dominant of these players, individually. He was incredible in the playoffs, even without a title. Really can't hold the fact that his team got swept by Portland, against him. He arguably outplayed peak Walton, if we are talking about their head-to-head matchup. Walton just had a far better team around him. Even just having a legitimate star, 20/10 bigman like Maurice Lucas is a pretty big advantage over anyone that KAJ played with. Lionel Hollins played much better than usual, too (actually, both Lucas and Hollins outscored Walton in that series). Even in the RS, Kareem was arguably the best among these three guys.
Anyway, it's very close. Before the project, I had Hakeem at 5, Kareem at 6 and Duncan at 7. Now I've switched Abdul-Jabbar and Olajuwon, but I still think it's extremely close.
'93 was Hakeem's best individual season, statistically, and also defensively (I think '90 was probably a little better defensively than '93, but '93 was better than '94 and even more so compared to '95).
As I said in the previous thread, taking '93 as Hakeem's peak and '03 as Duncan's peak seemed to be inconsistent, but now I just think that there's a clear edge in favor of '03 Duncan over '02 Duncan (his series against the Lakers in '03 was clearly better than his series in '02, especially in terms of scoring, particularly in crunch time, but also being able to control the game on both ends of the court). With Hakeem, I don't see a clear difference like that. '94 was better slightly better offensively (but really, the gap is extremely small), but '93 makes up for that on defense. His team lost game 7 against Seattle by only 3 points in '93, and won game 7 in two different series in '94 by 6 (in the finals against New York) and by 10 (in the second round against Phoenix), so the outcome was close enough in both cases that I believe it didn't depend on Hakeem's individual performance to great extent, which could change my opinion (like it did with '02 and '03 Duncan, where I see a significant difference in favor of '03).
'03 Duncan also looks better in terms
of on/off court ORtg differential, and had a better rating in single year RAPM.
Why not 2003 Duncan over 1993 Hakeem? Ready for reply.
RS
Hakeem 93
33.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% ( +4.1 TS% above league average )
16.7 RP100 on RB% Splits of 10.5/25.9/18.7
4.6 AP100 on 1.27 AST% / TOV% Ratio
2.4 SP100, 5.4 BP100, 8.9 Combined STL+BLK%, 4.8 PF100
114 ORTG / 94 DRTG , 27.3 PER, 23.4 WS/48, 8.4 BPM (3.0/5.4), 8.5 VORP
Led a 109.6 ORTG team ( 6th, + 1.6 above average ) 105.2 DRTG ( 3rd, -2.7 below average )
55 Wins, + 3.57 SRS, lost in 7 to Seattle Supersonics who were the highest SRS team at 6.66
Next three highest WS on own team Kenny Smith 8.0, Otis Thorpe 6.2 and Carl Herrera 4.6
Duncan 03
31.6 PP100 on 56.8 TS% ( +4.9 TS% above league average )
17.5 RP100 on RB% Splits of 9.9/27.3/19.0
5.3 AP100 on 1.51 AST% / TOV% Ratio
0.9 SP100, 4.0 BP100, 6.1 Combined STL+BLK%
112 ORTG / 92 DRTG, 26.9 PER, 24.8 WS/48, 7.5 BPM (3.3/4.2), 7.6 VORP
Led a 105.6 ORTG ( 7th, +2.0 above league average ) 99.7 DRTG ( 3rd, -3.9 below average )
60 Wins 5.65 SRS, won the title and defeated the highest SRS in the WCF at 7.90
Next three highest WS on own team Tony Parker 7.7, Bruce Bowen 5.1 and Stephen Jackson 4.8
I'd give hakeem a slight edge in scoring, Duncan a slight edge in rebounding and a moderate passing advantage. Hakeem has the advantage in " Stocks " but I think they exaggerate the different between them. After the RS I'd have Duncan and Hakeem tied maybe Hakeem has a slight advantage.
PS
Hakeem
31.3PP100 on 56.8 TS% ( +3.2 TS% above league average )
17.1 RP100 on RB% Splits of 12.8/23.4/18.7
5.8 AP100 on 1.45 AST%/TOV% Ratio
2.1 SP100, 6.0 BP100, 9.1 STL%+BLK%
113 ORTG / 97 DRTG, 26.7 PER, 22.1 WS/48, 10.3 BPM (3.8/6.3)
Duncan
30.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% ( +5.8 TS% above average)
19.1 RP100 on RB% Splits of 10.7/28.3/19.8
6.6 AP100 on a 1.98 AST% / TOV% Ratio
0.8 SPG 4.1 BPG, 6.6 Combined STL%+BLK%
116 ORTG / 92 DRTG, 27.9 PER, 27.8 WS/48, 11.6 BPM (6.4/5.3)
Conclusion; I'd give Duncan a slight advantage scoring-wise thanks to the efficiency , a slightly bigger rebounding edge ( though still small ) and a slightly bigger edge than he had over Hakeem in the RS and though hakeem has a slightly larger edge on blocks mainly I think duncan improvements over hakeem in scoring/rebounding/passing take a moderately small but noticeable edge over Hakeem in the playoffs and that's why I believe that Duncan had a better year mainly his offensive advantage and large playoff boost.
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Re: Peaks Project #5
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mischievous
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Coming into this project i thought Hakeem was more or less a consensus top 4 peak on this board. Surprised to see him not make top 4 and may fall even lower than that.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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trex_8063
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Re: Peaks Project #5
1st ballot: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '71/72/‘77
I'm going round and round on what I think his best year is. I was kinda swayed toward '77 last thread, looking at what was a dominant rs followed by an even more dominant post-season.
And watching that game 6 from the '77 Golden State series, it’s clear he was drawing as much attention as ‘00 Shaq. The Warriors collapsed on him nearly every time he received the ball. I saw a couple instances where he had flashes of double and triple teams BEFORE he ever got the ball. Earl Tatum (among others) got lots of open 18-footers because the defense was completely sagged in on Kareem…...and he still scored something like 43 pts in that game. Remarkable what he did in the playoffs against that kind of attention.
And looking what he did in that season with that supporting cast is quite impressive, too. The 2nd-best player on the team is probably Kermit Washington (who would miss a third of the rs and all of the playoffs with injury). 3rd-best player is probably a post-prime Cazzie Russell. 4th best is Lucius Allen (who missed 4 playoff games, and was playing injured in the some of the ps when he did play). 5th-8th best players are a mish-mash of Don Chaney, rookie Earl Tatum, Don Ford, and Tom Abernathy…….and Kareem somehow led this team to 53 wins, +2.64 SRS (5th of 22 teams), +2.5 ORtg/DRtg gap, past a totally decent Warriors team (which had Rick Barry, Jamaal Wilkes, Phil Smith, rookie Robert Parish, 2nd-year Gus Williams coming off the bench, etc) in the first round, before getting swept in the eventual champion Trailblazers in the 2nd round.
And ‘77 doesn’t absorb the same “water-down league” criticisms that some of Kareem’s other potential peak year seasons do. This was post-merger; all the Doctor J’s, Gilmores, Thompsons, Gervins, Issels, etc had joined the league…..and Kareem was still a clear stand-out.
otoh, '71 and '72 were both even more dominant (at least in the rs). '72, statistically speaking, was GOAT-level in-era dominance during the rs. '71 wasn't too overly far behind in the rs, and was better in the ps (part of title run). Though both years bear some criticism of being a weaker league. So idk.....but I'm sticking with Kareem as my next pick. At his peak he has a case as GOAT volume scorer, is a near-elite passing big man, a good (or very good) rebounder, and an excellent rim protector. That's a lot.
2nd ballot: Tim Duncan ‘03
I’m going to start with drza’s quote regarding his offense:
Duncan epitomizes the “quiet 30” or similar. Because nothing he does is ever flashy or particularly pleasing aesthetically, because he never makes much of an emotional show about anything…….it’s easy to overlook how well he plays in just about each and every game. You rarely see him do something “amazing”, and yet when the end of the game rolls around you see he went for 25 and 15 with 3 ast and 3 blk. And he does that night after night.
In ‘03:
26.9 PER, .248 WS/48, +7.4 BPM in 39.3 mpg.
He scaled that up to 28.4 PER, .279 WS/48, +11.6 BPM in 42.5 mpg in the playoffs. He went for a remarkable 24.7 ppg @ 57.7% TS, 15.4 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.3 bpg on his way to a title, rolling over the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, and the #1 SRS Dallas Mavericks along the way.
He had the league’s leading PI RAPM at a monstrous +8.3 that year, too.
3rd ballot: David Robinson '95
Robinson, to me, is the GOAT defensive player not named Bill Russell. As far as in-era defensive dominance, no one reaches was Bill Russell did....no one. But the thing is, I don't think he could exert that level of dominance in a later era (NOTE: although I freely admit that that is in part due to the fact that everyone to come after has had the Bill Russell Blueprint to work from), and I further think Robinson has the ability to be just as defensively dominant as Russell in the 1950's/60's (if he'd have anywhere near the ingenuity, anyway).
Combine that with being GOAT-level as far as a running and transition-finishing center, having an outstanding face-up game, decent range, being one of the best FT-shooting center we've discussed so far.
Dr Spaceman can provide the rest of the justification (he already has).
I'm going round and round on what I think his best year is. I was kinda swayed toward '77 last thread, looking at what was a dominant rs followed by an even more dominant post-season.
And watching that game 6 from the '77 Golden State series, it’s clear he was drawing as much attention as ‘00 Shaq. The Warriors collapsed on him nearly every time he received the ball. I saw a couple instances where he had flashes of double and triple teams BEFORE he ever got the ball. Earl Tatum (among others) got lots of open 18-footers because the defense was completely sagged in on Kareem…...and he still scored something like 43 pts in that game. Remarkable what he did in the playoffs against that kind of attention.
And looking what he did in that season with that supporting cast is quite impressive, too. The 2nd-best player on the team is probably Kermit Washington (who would miss a third of the rs and all of the playoffs with injury). 3rd-best player is probably a post-prime Cazzie Russell. 4th best is Lucius Allen (who missed 4 playoff games, and was playing injured in the some of the ps when he did play). 5th-8th best players are a mish-mash of Don Chaney, rookie Earl Tatum, Don Ford, and Tom Abernathy…….and Kareem somehow led this team to 53 wins, +2.64 SRS (5th of 22 teams), +2.5 ORtg/DRtg gap, past a totally decent Warriors team (which had Rick Barry, Jamaal Wilkes, Phil Smith, rookie Robert Parish, 2nd-year Gus Williams coming off the bench, etc) in the first round, before getting swept in the eventual champion Trailblazers in the 2nd round.
And ‘77 doesn’t absorb the same “water-down league” criticisms that some of Kareem’s other potential peak year seasons do. This was post-merger; all the Doctor J’s, Gilmores, Thompsons, Gervins, Issels, etc had joined the league…..and Kareem was still a clear stand-out.
otoh, '71 and '72 were both even more dominant (at least in the rs). '72, statistically speaking, was GOAT-level in-era dominance during the rs. '71 wasn't too overly far behind in the rs, and was better in the ps (part of title run). Though both years bear some criticism of being a weaker league. So idk.....but I'm sticking with Kareem as my next pick. At his peak he has a case as GOAT volume scorer, is a near-elite passing big man, a good (or very good) rebounder, and an excellent rim protector. That's a lot.
2nd ballot: Tim Duncan ‘03
I’m going to start with drza’s quote regarding his offense:
drza wrote:Offense:
Duncan: I think that, while less flashy, Duncan's post game was as effective as Dream's. I also think that he was a better passer than either Robinson or Olajuwon. I think that this makes him as good of a low post hub option on offense as Olajuwon was. However, I don't think that either Duncan or Olajuwon are as good of big men offensive hub options as Shaq or Kareem. Thus, I don't know that you could scale up an offense built primarily around Duncan (or Olajuwon's) low-post offense to a best-in-the-league level the way that you could one built around Shaq or Kareem. However, what both Duncan and Olajuwon demonstrated with their post-game was the ability to lead/anchor an offense that was good enough to win with the right combination of strong defense and shooters. Duncan was good in the iso, but not brilliant like Hakeem could be. He also shared shooting range with Hakeem out to about 15 feet, which was a nice counter to the post games.
Duncan epitomizes the “quiet 30” or similar. Because nothing he does is ever flashy or particularly pleasing aesthetically, because he never makes much of an emotional show about anything…….it’s easy to overlook how well he plays in just about each and every game. You rarely see him do something “amazing”, and yet when the end of the game rolls around you see he went for 25 and 15 with 3 ast and 3 blk. And he does that night after night.
In ‘03:
26.9 PER, .248 WS/48, +7.4 BPM in 39.3 mpg.
He scaled that up to 28.4 PER, .279 WS/48, +11.6 BPM in 42.5 mpg in the playoffs. He went for a remarkable 24.7 ppg @ 57.7% TS, 15.4 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.3 bpg on his way to a title, rolling over the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, and the #1 SRS Dallas Mavericks along the way.
He had the league’s leading PI RAPM at a monstrous +8.3 that year, too.
3rd ballot: David Robinson '95
Robinson, to me, is the GOAT defensive player not named Bill Russell. As far as in-era defensive dominance, no one reaches was Bill Russell did....no one. But the thing is, I don't think he could exert that level of dominance in a later era (NOTE: although I freely admit that that is in part due to the fact that everyone to come after has had the Bill Russell Blueprint to work from), and I further think Robinson has the ability to be just as defensively dominant as Russell in the 1950's/60's (if he'd have anywhere near the ingenuity, anyway).
Combine that with being GOAT-level as far as a running and transition-finishing center, having an outstanding face-up game, decent range, being one of the best FT-shooting center we've discussed so far.
Dr Spaceman can provide the rest of the justification (he already has).
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Re: Peaks Project #5
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thizznation
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Re: Peaks Project #5
I had Wilt and KAJ neck and neck. I didn't really mind which one went before the other. KAJ is still my man for number 1 ballot. As we have posted before, his post season stats were absurd. 37 points per 100 possessions on .640 TS%. That is automatic.
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977
2. Hakeem 94
I jumped the gun with Dr. J for my last ballot (#4). I was overwhelmed with the log jam of bigmen coming through and missed some of the nuances with each of them. I hate to keep falling back on postseason performances but I think that is what really separates the men from the boys when we are talking about the greatest peaks of all time. I know some people don't share that opinion and would rather go with the bigger sample size. I think it's a big factor in gauging how good you are when you are facing tougher competition with more at stake. I understand how David Robinson can't be totally penalized for his performance due to his supporting cast being what it was, but on the same time we have to give Hakeem a big nod for doing what he did in the post season. It seems like a little bit of a double standard to give one person a drop in production for the post season, even if his team was poor.
Anyways on closer look Hakeem's defensive and offensive performance in the '94 post season was nothing short of incredible. As JB mentioned he was DPOY and was averaging 4 blocks a game while anchoring the offense. I'm not sure if David Robinson could of brought home a title with the same circumstances that Hakeem did.
3. David Robinson 95
This one is tough. I want to go Timmy D but I can't help to think what would happen if David Robinson and Tim Duncan's careers traded places. When you look at the raw numbers, especially regular season, Robinson looks mighty, mighty good. Even though his drop in post season production is explainable...it seems hard to give him a free pass. Robinson with Manu and Tony parker in his prime? His scoring in the post season may have stayed the same as the regular. I'm really torn here but I'm going to go with the Admiral. Once again I feel like I may be too understanding with his drop in post season scoring and rebounding (he played with Dennis Rodman and Dennis Rodman's rebounding is statistically one of the largest outliers of anything basketball related).
1977 KAJ
1994 Hakeem
1995 Robinson
Coming soon: Duncan, Dr J, Garnett...
I apologize for my post being pretty ranty. I have been having a lot of difficulty sorting out this group of big men. They're peaks are all very close to eachother.
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977
2. Hakeem 94
I jumped the gun with Dr. J for my last ballot (#4). I was overwhelmed with the log jam of bigmen coming through and missed some of the nuances with each of them. I hate to keep falling back on postseason performances but I think that is what really separates the men from the boys when we are talking about the greatest peaks of all time. I know some people don't share that opinion and would rather go with the bigger sample size. I think it's a big factor in gauging how good you are when you are facing tougher competition with more at stake. I understand how David Robinson can't be totally penalized for his performance due to his supporting cast being what it was, but on the same time we have to give Hakeem a big nod for doing what he did in the post season. It seems like a little bit of a double standard to give one person a drop in production for the post season, even if his team was poor.
Anyways on closer look Hakeem's defensive and offensive performance in the '94 post season was nothing short of incredible. As JB mentioned he was DPOY and was averaging 4 blocks a game while anchoring the offense. I'm not sure if David Robinson could of brought home a title with the same circumstances that Hakeem did.
3. David Robinson 95
This one is tough. I want to go Timmy D but I can't help to think what would happen if David Robinson and Tim Duncan's careers traded places. When you look at the raw numbers, especially regular season, Robinson looks mighty, mighty good. Even though his drop in post season production is explainable...it seems hard to give him a free pass. Robinson with Manu and Tony parker in his prime? His scoring in the post season may have stayed the same as the regular. I'm really torn here but I'm going to go with the Admiral. Once again I feel like I may be too understanding with his drop in post season scoring and rebounding (he played with Dennis Rodman and Dennis Rodman's rebounding is statistically one of the largest outliers of anything basketball related).
1977 KAJ
1994 Hakeem
1995 Robinson
Coming soon: Duncan, Dr J, Garnett...
I apologize for my post being pretty ranty. I have been having a lot of difficulty sorting out this group of big men. They're peaks are all very close to eachother.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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drza
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Peak Kevin Garnett
A few folks in this project have called on me to provide a Kevin Garnett post similar to the one that Spaceman did for David Robinson. It's interesting, trying to write about KG in this type of project, because he is very possibly the oddest player in NBA history. His skillset is unusual to the point of uniqueness. His circumstances, as well, are unusual to the point of uniqueness. His game and impact were so odd that the stats that best demonstrate his impact didn't even really exist until he came along, and literally, the fact that the +/- stats show Garnett to be the best player of his generation has been enough to slow the adoption (at least among fans) of what has otherwise been a transformative way to evaluate players (in NBA front offices).
So. Garnett.
In 2003, while watching a game in the first round of the playoffs, it just hit me that I was watching the best player in the world. I had been a Garnett fan for a few years at that point, had been in a BUNCH of KG vs Duncan debates...Shaq was still the baddest man in the NBA, and Kobe was in his Fro-be stage and wearing the number 8. Garnett was playing in a game against both Shaq and Kobe, who were at the time leading the three-time defending champion Lakers. He hit some ridiculous turnaround, fadeaway baseline jumper when falling out of bounds, and I just realized that I was watching a game featuring both Shaq and Kobe...but that Garnett was the best player on the court.
But why was he the best? Conventional wisdom said that he was playing the game all wrong...he was a 7-footer, but he wasn't parked in the paint. He was an excellent post player:, but instead of using that post-game all the time he would spend more time posting on the elbows...shooting baseline fadewawy jumpers...running the pick-and-pop and shooting 18 foot jumpers. It was enough to drive basketball purists, including many former NBA players turned analysts, crazy. If he was in the post more, he could suck the defense in. He'd be able to draw more fouls. He'd be able to score at a higher volume...or at a higher efficiency...especially in the playoffs, where everyone knew that the key to winning was scoring in the paint.
The thing is...conventional thinking wasn't correct. Garnett's unusual style of play, as comfortable on the outside as on the inside, was actually making life WAY easier for his team. Once the analytics movement kicked in, we were able to see that by posting up outside of the paint, Garnett was warping the defense away from the rim and out towards him. Because he was able to hit jumpers at such a strong clip, he was spacing the defense even further. And because he was arguably the best passing big man ever, and he was able to act as the initiator of the offense like a floor general, Garnett was able to actually directly create offense for teammates in ways that very few non-point guards ever had.
So, what actually happened in 2003 and 2004? What was Garnett's weird style able to produce? Well, I'll tell you two ways. I'll give you some numbers for those that just want the cliff notes. And I'll also fully scout it out for you, for those that want some interpretation and context (I'll spoiler the last part).
Numbers
2003 (per 100): 29.6 points (55.3% TS), 17.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, 1.8 steals, 2.0 blocks
2004 (per 100): 33.2 points (54.7% TS), 19.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 3.5 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 3.0 blocks
03/04 PO /100: 30.2 points (52.0% TS), 18.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 4.7 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 2.6 blocks
2003 on/off +/-: +23.6 per 100 possessions (highest ever recorded since have first data, 1994 - 2015)
2004 on/off +/-: +20.7 per 100 possessions
03/04 PO /100: +22.6 per 100 possessions (small sample size of 24 games -->"off" unreliable, but matches reg season)
Peak KG on offense:
Now, for those interested, let's put some context onto those numbers. First, for offense, from an old post. Warning: it's very long. Starts with the offensive RAPM scores from 2003 and 2004 according to DocMJ's spreadsheet, and for 03 and 04 his RAPM was from Englemann's old site. Then goes on to look at the 03 and 04 Wolves in great depth, from personnel to strategy to execution.
Teaser: there were exactly 3 players that finished in the top-10 in Offensive RAPM in both 2003 and 2004: Shaquille O'Neal (1st in '03, 2nd in '04), Dirk Nowitzki (4th in '03, 3rd in '04), and...Kevin Garnett (2nd in '03, 1st in '04). Why was peak KG measuring out as the best offensive player in the NBA? Read and find out.
Cliff notes: In 2003 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Troy Hudson, Anthony Peeler, Wally Szczerbiak, KG, and Rasho and ran Garnett as a point-power-forward in a unique version of the big-man-with-4-shooters line-up...and finished with a top-5 offense. In 2004 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Trenton Hassell, KG, and Big Erv Johnson and ran Garnett as a bit more of a finisher in an offense with three contributors and two dead weights...and finished with a top-5 offense. Two different line-ups, playing a different role, Garnett was able to pull relatively un-talented rosters to excellent offenses. He did it in different ways, but the uniqueness of his skillset is what allowed both of those units to pretty drastically over-achieve.
Peak Garnett's defense
Now, let's look at the other side of the ball: Garnett's defense. In a mirror to the offense, in 2003 and 2004 there were exactly three players that finished in the top-7 of the Defensive RAPM in both seasons: Tim Duncan (T2nd, 2nd), Ben Wallace (4th, 1st)...and Kevin Garnett (7th, 3rd).
Below is from an old post on KG's defense. This post was REALLY long, and unfortunately it isn't focused only on his peak years. So, I'm going to snip out some of the stuff, especially from his Boston years. But it does have a lot of scouting in it, and there are things in both the "early" and "prime" years section that help to illustrate what he was doing on defense at his peak that had him measuring out as one of the best defenders in the league...BEFORE his Celtics days.
Take-aways: If you've actually read everything so far, kudos to you. There's a lot here. But some take-away points:
1) At his peak, Garnett was ranked at the top of the league in both offensive AND defensive impact simultaneously. In 2003 he ranked #2 in ORAPM and #7 in DRAPM, and in 2004 he ranked #1 in ORAPM and #3 in DRAPM. To date, from 1998 - 2015, no other player has ever finished in the top-3 in both offensive AND defensive RAPM in the same season except Garnett. (Side note: since he went on to be #1 in DRAPM in a bunch of years, Garnett is the only person on record to be #1 in both offensive and defensive RAPM in their career).
2) If you read all of the stuff in this post, hopefully you have some insight into WHY Garnett was measuring out with such a mega impact on both sides of the ball. He was doing things that had never been done before, especially by the same player, on both sides of the ball. He played with entirely different starting 5s in 2003 and 2004, and maintained his mega impact on both.
3) The only direct peer (from 1998 - 2015) that Garnett had at his peak, as far as measured impact according to RAPM, was LeBron James in 2009 and 2010.
4) Garnett's impact was almost perfectly portable.
In 2003 (according to Englemann's study) Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating as a point-forward in a unipolar attack with very poor defensive teammates, yielding a top-5 offense but an average team defense.
In 2004, Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating as more of a scorer/finisher in a tripolar attack with the other two offensive teammates as offensive nulls/defensive role players, yielding a top-5 offense and a top-6 defense.
In 2008 (no longer at his peak), Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating almost entirely as a finisher in a tripolar attack with two gifted offensive teammates and two average offensive teammates who were solid defenders, yielding a top-10 offense and a record-setting #1 defense.
5) More importantly,Garnett's impact was almost entirely scaleable. If you put below average teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that teams win totals. If you put average teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that teams potential. If you put solid teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that team's potential and make them contenders. And if you put great teammates around Garnett, he could STILL maximize the team's potential and make them champions.
LeBron could play on a poor team and have an impact footprint similar to KG's. Russell could play on a great team and have a huge impact due to the portability of his defense. Hakeem, Robinson and Duncan could come close to spanning the range, but their games weren't as quite as versatile and portable as Garnett's. Wilt seemingly had the ability to be whatever he wanted on the court, but his goals were seemingly not always team-first.
But there is a vanishingly small list of players whose impact could stay steady at the top of the NBA, regardless of how the team was composed, regardless of what role was asked of him, regardless of the situation. That wanted to win so much that he sobbed on national TV during an interview. That was so unselfish and team-first on the court that he was visibly uncomfortable when he won individual awards like the MVP or the Defensive Player of the Year and insisted that his teammates come up to accept the award with him.
Really...in history...that list might be just one player. KG was a once in a history talent, a once in history personality, and at his peak he was just a ridiculous basketball player. He deserves a spot near the top of this list.
A few folks in this project have called on me to provide a Kevin Garnett post similar to the one that Spaceman did for David Robinson. It's interesting, trying to write about KG in this type of project, because he is very possibly the oddest player in NBA history. His skillset is unusual to the point of uniqueness. His circumstances, as well, are unusual to the point of uniqueness. His game and impact were so odd that the stats that best demonstrate his impact didn't even really exist until he came along, and literally, the fact that the +/- stats show Garnett to be the best player of his generation has been enough to slow the adoption (at least among fans) of what has otherwise been a transformative way to evaluate players (in NBA front offices).
So. Garnett.
In 2003, while watching a game in the first round of the playoffs, it just hit me that I was watching the best player in the world. I had been a Garnett fan for a few years at that point, had been in a BUNCH of KG vs Duncan debates...Shaq was still the baddest man in the NBA, and Kobe was in his Fro-be stage and wearing the number 8. Garnett was playing in a game against both Shaq and Kobe, who were at the time leading the three-time defending champion Lakers. He hit some ridiculous turnaround, fadeaway baseline jumper when falling out of bounds, and I just realized that I was watching a game featuring both Shaq and Kobe...but that Garnett was the best player on the court.
But why was he the best? Conventional wisdom said that he was playing the game all wrong...he was a 7-footer, but he wasn't parked in the paint. He was an excellent post player:
Spoiler:
The thing is...conventional thinking wasn't correct. Garnett's unusual style of play, as comfortable on the outside as on the inside, was actually making life WAY easier for his team. Once the analytics movement kicked in, we were able to see that by posting up outside of the paint, Garnett was warping the defense away from the rim and out towards him. Because he was able to hit jumpers at such a strong clip, he was spacing the defense even further. And because he was arguably the best passing big man ever, and he was able to act as the initiator of the offense like a floor general, Garnett was able to actually directly create offense for teammates in ways that very few non-point guards ever had.
So, what actually happened in 2003 and 2004? What was Garnett's weird style able to produce? Well, I'll tell you two ways. I'll give you some numbers for those that just want the cliff notes. And I'll also fully scout it out for you, for those that want some interpretation and context (I'll spoiler the last part).
Numbers
2003 (per 100): 29.6 points (55.3% TS), 17.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 3.6 turnovers, 1.8 steals, 2.0 blocks
2004 (per 100): 33.2 points (54.7% TS), 19.0 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 3.5 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 3.0 blocks
03/04 PO /100: 30.2 points (52.0% TS), 18.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 4.7 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 2.6 blocks
2003 on/off +/-: +23.6 per 100 possessions (highest ever recorded since have first data, 1994 - 2015)
2004 on/off +/-: +20.7 per 100 possessions
03/04 PO /100: +22.6 per 100 possessions (small sample size of 24 games -->"off" unreliable, but matches reg season)
Peak KG on offense:
Now, for those interested, let's put some context onto those numbers. First, for offense, from an old post. Warning: it's very long. Starts with the offensive RAPM scores from 2003 and 2004 according to DocMJ's spreadsheet, and for 03 and 04 his RAPM was from Englemann's old site. Then goes on to look at the 03 and 04 Wolves in great depth, from personnel to strategy to execution.
Teaser: there were exactly 3 players that finished in the top-10 in Offensive RAPM in both 2003 and 2004: Shaquille O'Neal (1st in '03, 2nd in '04), Dirk Nowitzki (4th in '03, 3rd in '04), and...Kevin Garnett (2nd in '03, 1st in '04). Why was peak KG measuring out as the best offensive player in the NBA? Read and find out.
Spoiler:
Cliff notes: In 2003 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Troy Hudson, Anthony Peeler, Wally Szczerbiak, KG, and Rasho and ran Garnett as a point-power-forward in a unique version of the big-man-with-4-shooters line-up...and finished with a top-5 offense. In 2004 the Wolves trotted out a line-up featuring Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Trenton Hassell, KG, and Big Erv Johnson and ran Garnett as a bit more of a finisher in an offense with three contributors and two dead weights...and finished with a top-5 offense. Two different line-ups, playing a different role, Garnett was able to pull relatively un-talented rosters to excellent offenses. He did it in different ways, but the uniqueness of his skillset is what allowed both of those units to pretty drastically over-achieve.
Peak Garnett's defense
Now, let's look at the other side of the ball: Garnett's defense. In a mirror to the offense, in 2003 and 2004 there were exactly three players that finished in the top-7 of the Defensive RAPM in both seasons: Tim Duncan (T2nd, 2nd), Ben Wallace (4th, 1st)...and Kevin Garnett (7th, 3rd).
Below is from an old post on KG's defense. This post was REALLY long, and unfortunately it isn't focused only on his peak years. So, I'm going to snip out some of the stuff, especially from his Boston years. But it does have a lot of scouting in it, and there are things in both the "early" and "prime" years section that help to illustrate what he was doing on defense at his peak that had him measuring out as one of the best defenders in the league...BEFORE his Celtics days.
Spoiler:
Take-aways: If you've actually read everything so far, kudos to you. There's a lot here. But some take-away points:
1) At his peak, Garnett was ranked at the top of the league in both offensive AND defensive impact simultaneously. In 2003 he ranked #2 in ORAPM and #7 in DRAPM, and in 2004 he ranked #1 in ORAPM and #3 in DRAPM. To date, from 1998 - 2015, no other player has ever finished in the top-3 in both offensive AND defensive RAPM in the same season except Garnett. (Side note: since he went on to be #1 in DRAPM in a bunch of years, Garnett is the only person on record to be #1 in both offensive and defensive RAPM in their career).
2) If you read all of the stuff in this post, hopefully you have some insight into WHY Garnett was measuring out with such a mega impact on both sides of the ball. He was doing things that had never been done before, especially by the same player, on both sides of the ball. He played with entirely different starting 5s in 2003 and 2004, and maintained his mega impact on both.
3) The only direct peer (from 1998 - 2015) that Garnett had at his peak, as far as measured impact according to RAPM, was LeBron James in 2009 and 2010.
4) Garnett's impact was almost perfectly portable.
In 2003 (according to Englemann's study) Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating as a point-forward in a unipolar attack with very poor defensive teammates, yielding a top-5 offense but an average team defense.
In 2004, Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating as more of a scorer/finisher in a tripolar attack with the other two offensive teammates as offensive nulls/defensive role players, yielding a top-5 offense and a top-6 defense.
In 2008 (no longer at his peak), Garnett had the highest RAPM in the NBA while operating almost entirely as a finisher in a tripolar attack with two gifted offensive teammates and two average offensive teammates who were solid defenders, yielding a top-10 offense and a record-setting #1 defense.
5) More importantly,Garnett's impact was almost entirely scaleable. If you put below average teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that teams win totals. If you put average teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that teams potential. If you put solid teammates around Garnett, he could maximize that team's potential and make them contenders. And if you put great teammates around Garnett, he could STILL maximize the team's potential and make them champions.
LeBron could play on a poor team and have an impact footprint similar to KG's. Russell could play on a great team and have a huge impact due to the portability of his defense. Hakeem, Robinson and Duncan could come close to spanning the range, but their games weren't as quite as versatile and portable as Garnett's. Wilt seemingly had the ability to be whatever he wanted on the court, but his goals were seemingly not always team-first.
But there is a vanishingly small list of players whose impact could stay steady at the top of the NBA, regardless of how the team was composed, regardless of what role was asked of him, regardless of the situation. That wanted to win so much that he sobbed on national TV during an interview. That was so unselfish and team-first on the court that he was visibly uncomfortable when he won individual awards like the MVP or the Defensive Player of the Year and insisted that his teammates come up to accept the award with him.
Really...in history...that list might be just one player. KG was a once in a history talent, a once in history personality, and at his peak he was just a ridiculous basketball player. He deserves a spot near the top of this list.
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Re: Peaks Project #5
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70sFan
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Re: Peaks Project #5
1st ballot - Kareem Abdul Jabbar - 1972/1974/1977
2rd ballot - Tim Duncan -2003
3rd ballot - Hakeem Olajuwon - 1993/1994
Kareem MUST be in top 5, he was in my opinion the best offensive bigman ever. Right now, I'm between 1972 and 1977. Hard to choose, but I think 1972 is better and one bad and second not great series shouldn't overlook antything other he did that year. I don't now, either way he is next.
With Hakeem vs Duncan, I don't know who should I choose. As a Spurs fun, I like Duncan much more and I think he is just as good as Hakeem. But Hakeem faced better competition than Duncan in 2003, so he has argument.
I think Duncan is better rebounder and overall slightly better offensive player than Hakeem (mainly because of better passing, scoring is even, or minimal edge to Hakeem). Hakeem is slightly better defender I think, but I don't think gap is enough. Both are all-time great defenders (top 5 ever probably). Duncan is also better leader, this is not very important thing, but in such a close comparison everything is important
Before project I have Hakeem peak ahead of Duncan, but right now I think Duncan is minimaly better.
2rd ballot - Tim Duncan -2003
3rd ballot - Hakeem Olajuwon - 1993/1994
Kareem MUST be in top 5, he was in my opinion the best offensive bigman ever. Right now, I'm between 1972 and 1977. Hard to choose, but I think 1972 is better and one bad and second not great series shouldn't overlook antything other he did that year. I don't now, either way he is next.
With Hakeem vs Duncan, I don't know who should I choose. As a Spurs fun, I like Duncan much more and I think he is just as good as Hakeem. But Hakeem faced better competition than Duncan in 2003, so he has argument.
I think Duncan is better rebounder and overall slightly better offensive player than Hakeem (mainly because of better passing, scoring is even, or minimal edge to Hakeem). Hakeem is slightly better defender I think, but I don't think gap is enough. Both are all-time great defenders (top 5 ever probably). Duncan is also better leader, this is not very important thing, but in such a close comparison everything is important
Before project I have Hakeem peak ahead of Duncan, but right now I think Duncan is minimaly better.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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The-Power
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Re: Peaks Project #5
I can keep it short here, maybe for the next few rounds, because my main arguments won't change. I'll participate in further discussions about these players (or other players for that matter) when I feel like it's necessary or worth it and I can find the time.
1st Ballot: David Robinson (1995)
2nd Ballot: Kevin Garnett (2004)
3rd Ballot: Tim Duncan (2003)
Some reasoning for all three players (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44639510#p44639510)
Additional/initial reasoning for David Robinson (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44629555#p44629555)
1st Ballot: David Robinson (1995)
2nd Ballot: Kevin Garnett (2004)
3rd Ballot: Tim Duncan (2003)
Some reasoning for all three players (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44639510#p44639510)
Spoiler:
Additional/initial reasoning for David Robinson (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44629555#p44629555)
Spoiler:
Re: Peaks Project #5
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MyUniBroDavis
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Peak Kareem 77
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He averaged 26-13 in the regular season. Pace adjusted, his rebounding was still VERY solid.
His regular season was extremely solid, but in an ATG scale, It was more "average" in terms of raw stats, at least compared to some of his peers.
His impact obviously was more than his numbers would indicate. In box plus, he had a 10.8 rating. his 7.7 offensive box plus was more than double his career average, and decently higher than his first tracked box plus year in milwakee.
And then we go to the playoffs.
Argueably one of the best post seasons of all time, he averaged 35 and 17!, along with 3.5 blocks and 4 assists, on 60% shooting!
That statline is ungodly.
He cannot be blamed for the lakers losses. its like blaming MJ when he scored his career high in the playoffs.
Especially since he averaged a little more than 30 points against a peak Walton.
Hakeem 94
Defensively, he was obviously beyond a beast.
In the playoffs.
this is who he played against.
Clifford Robinson - 20 pg on 46%. can stretch the floor.
Barkley - According to some studies, shot 70% from teh post up. arguably a top 3 interior scorer of all time.
Ewing - he averaged 24ppg this season. 23 in the playoffs. (disregarding Hakeem)
Now, lets look at how Hakeem effected them.
Clifford - 16 ppg on 41%
Ewing - 19 ppg on 36% (-12%)
Barkley - teh most impressive imo
against the warriors, in 41.7 minutes, he averaged 37 on 60% shooting.
against Hakeem? 23.5 ppg on 46% shooting, while actually improving his shooting percentage from the free throw line by more than 12%.
And obviously, we know how good he was offensively.
Duncan 03
Duncan has always been the type of guy that does the little things on defense, like play recognition, etc. IMO, his on court awareness is second to none. (in the modern-ish era)
Lets look at a few stats
+14.7 net rating overall
+9.7 on offense
-5.1 on defense
Playoffs
+15.3 on offense
-7.8 on defense
To put that number in persective, even LEBRON, IN HIS 09 SEASON, DIDNT BEAT THOSE NUMBERS!
Lets look at the positional rankings, according to hoopsstats
I wont count C and Pf for San antonio since he effected both positions in Hoopstats (coincidentally, both ranked at or near 1st)
Positions other than C and Pf ranked 17.6th on average.
Other than sf, lebrons team ranked 13.75th on those positions on average
obviously, this isnt exact, and some positions are worth more than others, but its interesting to note.
He was just WAY better than his stats showed.
Perhaps one thing that makes me put him over people with higher rapm, such as Garnett, are the intangibles he possessed. imo, his leadership might be the greatest ever.
I feel like the way he controlled his team on teh inside, how quietly he did it, made sure the team would function at 100% capacity, even with him out. Honestly, I feel like he is both a superstar and someone who glues the team together. And we have seen how chemistry can destroy some teams.
I like RAPM as a statistic, but a large part of me feels like its season based (i dont know much about it, so I might be wrong).
In 07, his rapm was pretty much double what it was on 03. and the average "star" rapm increased immensely.
But anyway, I dont know how to find playoff rapm.
I feel that even if you replace Duncan with a more talented version of him on those teams, they would fare worse, because of that leadership factor, that tbh, I haven't seen in most sports at all.
Honestly, looking at it by a series by series basis
it almost seems like he played at the level that suited his team.
His first round was an 18-16 round. Really though, they had an obvious advantage, they lost by 1 and 2 points each, and they won in double digits twice.
Against the lakers,
leading up to the series, shaq looked like, well, shaq.
from game 41 onwards (a 26 game sample) he was averaging 29.9 and 11.6 on 60%
In the series beforehand, he was averaging 29 and 15.
against duncan, he averaged 25 and 14.
The spurs won by a solid margin of 5.5 ppg throughout the playoffs)
series by series, duncan averaged 28 against LAL and DAL, (28 and 17 against dallas)
he held Dirk, who aside from the sacramento series was averaging 30 since April, to 25 ppg on 43% shooting. Basically, he made teh GOAT stretch forward into a slightly more ineffecient Kobe.
just dominant defensively. especially teh shaq part, since Shaq had pretty much said that he is much more motivated against Duncan, and a motivated shaq is pretty much like giving shaq drugs.
(more than their regular season
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He averaged 26-13 in the regular season. Pace adjusted, his rebounding was still VERY solid.
His regular season was extremely solid, but in an ATG scale, It was more "average" in terms of raw stats, at least compared to some of his peers.
His impact obviously was more than his numbers would indicate. In box plus, he had a 10.8 rating. his 7.7 offensive box plus was more than double his career average, and decently higher than his first tracked box plus year in milwakee.
And then we go to the playoffs.
Argueably one of the best post seasons of all time, he averaged 35 and 17!, along with 3.5 blocks and 4 assists, on 60% shooting!
That statline is ungodly.
He cannot be blamed for the lakers losses. its like blaming MJ when he scored his career high in the playoffs.
Especially since he averaged a little more than 30 points against a peak Walton.
Hakeem 94
Defensively, he was obviously beyond a beast.
In the playoffs.
this is who he played against.
Clifford Robinson - 20 pg on 46%. can stretch the floor.
Barkley - According to some studies, shot 70% from teh post up. arguably a top 3 interior scorer of all time.
Ewing - he averaged 24ppg this season. 23 in the playoffs. (disregarding Hakeem)
Now, lets look at how Hakeem effected them.
Clifford - 16 ppg on 41%
Ewing - 19 ppg on 36% (-12%)
Barkley - teh most impressive imo
against the warriors, in 41.7 minutes, he averaged 37 on 60% shooting.
against Hakeem? 23.5 ppg on 46% shooting, while actually improving his shooting percentage from the free throw line by more than 12%.
And obviously, we know how good he was offensively.
Duncan 03
Duncan has always been the type of guy that does the little things on defense, like play recognition, etc. IMO, his on court awareness is second to none. (in the modern-ish era)
Lets look at a few stats
+14.7 net rating overall
+9.7 on offense
-5.1 on defense
Playoffs
+15.3 on offense
-7.8 on defense
To put that number in persective, even LEBRON, IN HIS 09 SEASON, DIDNT BEAT THOSE NUMBERS!
Lets look at the positional rankings, according to hoopsstats
I wont count C and Pf for San antonio since he effected both positions in Hoopstats (coincidentally, both ranked at or near 1st)
Positions other than C and Pf ranked 17.6th on average.
Other than sf, lebrons team ranked 13.75th on those positions on average
obviously, this isnt exact, and some positions are worth more than others, but its interesting to note.
He was just WAY better than his stats showed.
Perhaps one thing that makes me put him over people with higher rapm, such as Garnett, are the intangibles he possessed. imo, his leadership might be the greatest ever.
I feel like the way he controlled his team on teh inside, how quietly he did it, made sure the team would function at 100% capacity, even with him out. Honestly, I feel like he is both a superstar and someone who glues the team together. And we have seen how chemistry can destroy some teams.
I like RAPM as a statistic, but a large part of me feels like its season based (i dont know much about it, so I might be wrong).
In 07, his rapm was pretty much double what it was on 03. and the average "star" rapm increased immensely.
But anyway, I dont know how to find playoff rapm.
I feel that even if you replace Duncan with a more talented version of him on those teams, they would fare worse, because of that leadership factor, that tbh, I haven't seen in most sports at all.
Honestly, looking at it by a series by series basis
it almost seems like he played at the level that suited his team.
His first round was an 18-16 round. Really though, they had an obvious advantage, they lost by 1 and 2 points each, and they won in double digits twice.
Against the lakers,
leading up to the series, shaq looked like, well, shaq.
from game 41 onwards (a 26 game sample) he was averaging 29.9 and 11.6 on 60%
In the series beforehand, he was averaging 29 and 15.
against duncan, he averaged 25 and 14.
The spurs won by a solid margin of 5.5 ppg throughout the playoffs)
series by series, duncan averaged 28 against LAL and DAL, (28 and 17 against dallas)
he held Dirk, who aside from the sacramento series was averaging 30 since April, to 25 ppg on 43% shooting. Basically, he made teh GOAT stretch forward into a slightly more ineffecient Kobe.
just dominant defensively. especially teh shaq part, since Shaq had pretty much said that he is much more motivated against Duncan, and a motivated shaq is pretty much like giving shaq drugs.
(more than their regular season
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Quotatious
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Re: Peaks Project #5
RSCD3_ wrote:Quotatious wrote:Ballot #1 - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar '77
Ballot #2 - Hakeem Olajuwon '93
Ballot #3 - Tim Duncan '03
Kareem was just the most dominant of these players, individually. He was incredible in the playoffs, even without a title. Really can't hold the fact that his team got swept by Portland, against him. He arguably outplayed peak Walton, if we are talking about their head-to-head matchup. Walton just had a far better team around him. Even just having a legitimate star, 20/10 bigman like Maurice Lucas is a pretty big advantage over anyone that KAJ played with. Lionel Hollins played much better than usual, too (actually, both Lucas and Hollins outscored Walton in that series). Even in the RS, Kareem was arguably the best among these three guys.
Anyway, it's very close. Before the project, I had Hakeem at 5, Kareem at 6 and Duncan at 7. Now I've switched Abdul-Jabbar and Olajuwon, but I still think it's extremely close.
'93 was Hakeem's best individual season, statistically, and also defensively (I think '90 was probably a little better defensively than '93, but '93 was better than '94 and even more so compared to '95).
As I said in the previous thread, taking '93 as Hakeem's peak and '03 as Duncan's peak seemed to be inconsistent, but now I just think that there's a clear edge in favor of '03 Duncan over '02 Duncan (his series against the Lakers in '03 was clearly better than his series in '02, especially in terms of scoring, particularly in crunch time, but also being able to control the game on both ends of the court). With Hakeem, I don't see a clear difference like that. '94 was better slightly better offensively (but really, the gap is extremely small), but '93 makes up for that on defense. His team lost game 7 against Seattle by only 3 points in '93, and won game 7 in two different series in '94 by 6 (in the finals against New York) and by 10 (in the second round against Phoenix), so the outcome was close enough in both cases that I believe it didn't depend on Hakeem's individual performance to great extent, which could change my opinion (like it did with '02 and '03 Duncan, where I see a significant difference in favor of '03).
'03 Duncan also looks better in terms
of on/off court ORtg differential, and had a better rating in single year RAPM.
Why not 2003 Duncan over 1993 Hakeem? Ready for reply.
RS
Hakeem 93
33.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% ( +4.1 TS% above league average )
16.7 RP100 on RB% Splits of 10.5/25.9/18.7
4.6 AP100 on 1.27 AST% / TOV% Ratio
2.4 SP100, 5.4 BP100, 8.9 Combined STL+BLK%, 4.8 PF100
114 ORTG / 94 DRTG , 27.3 PER, 23.4 WS/48, 8.4 BPM (3.0/5.4), 8.5 VORP
Led a 109.6 ORTG team ( 6th, + 1.6 above average ) 105.2 DRTG ( 3rd, -2.7 below average )
55 Wins, + 3.57 SRS, lost in 7 to Seattle Supersonics who were the highest SRS team at 6.66
Next three highest WS on own team Kenny Smith 8.0, Otis Thorpe 6.2 and Carl Herrera 4.6
Duncan 03
31.6 PP100 on 56.8 TS% ( +4.9 TS% above league average )
17.5 RP100 on RB% Splits of 9.9/27.3/19.0
5.3 AP100 on 1.51 AST% / TOV% Ratio
0.9 SP100, 4.0 BP100, 6.1 Combined STL+BLK%
112 ORTG / 92 DRTG, 26.9 PER, 24.8 WS/48, 7.5 BPM (3.3/4.2), 7.6 VORP
Led a 105.6 ORTG ( 7th, +2.0 above league average ) 99.7 DRTG ( 3rd, -3.9 below average )
60 Wins 5.65 SRS, won the title and defeated the highest SRS in the WCF at 7.90
Next three highest WS on own team Tony Parker 7.7, Bruce Bowen 5.1 and Stephen Jackson 4.8
I'd give hakeem a slight edge in scoring, Duncan a slight edge in rebounding and a moderate passing advantage. Hakeem has the advantage in " Stocks " but I think they exaggerate the different between them. After the RS I'd have Duncan and Hakeem tied maybe Hakeem has a slight advantage.
PS
Hakeem
31.3PP100 on 56.8 TS% ( +3.2 TS% above league average )
17.1 RP100 on RB% Splits of 12.8/23.4/18.7
5.8 AP100 on 1.45 AST%/TOV% Ratio
2.1 SP100, 6.0 BP100, 9.1 STL%+BLK%
113 ORTG / 97 DRTG, 26.7 PER, 22.1 WS/48, 10.3 BPM (3.8/6.3)
Duncan
30.6 PP100 on 57.7 TS% ( +5.8 TS% above average)
19.1 RP100 on RB% Splits of 10.7/28.3/19.8
6.6 AP100 on a 1.98 AST% / TOV% Ratio
0.8 SPG 4.1 BPG, 6.6 Combined STL%+BLK%
116 ORTG / 92 DRTG, 27.9 PER, 27.8 WS/48, 11.6 BPM (6.4/5.3)
Conclusion; I'd give Duncan a slight advantage scoring-wise thanks to the efficiency , a slightly bigger rebounding edge ( though still small ) and a slightly bigger edge than he had over Hakeem in the RS and though hakeem has a slightly larger edge on blocks mainly I think duncan improvements over hakeem in scoring/rebounding/passing take a moderately small but noticeable edge over Hakeem in the playoffs and that's why I believe that Duncan had a better year mainly his offensive advantage and large playoff boost.
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You know, as often as I criticize the competition argument, I think it applies here. Hakeem's competition at center in '93 was better than Duncan's competition at C/PF (I mean the guys who guarded Duncan and vice versa). Prime Robinson, Ewing, Daugherty, rookie Shaq and Zo who were already great, Mutombo, Parish was still a very productive player (19.2 PER and 56.5% TS) at age 39/40. Rik Smits, Rony Seikaly, those guys were solid, too. Obviously not on Hakeem's level, but they would have a chance to make the All-NBA 3rd team in 2003. So, 1993 was one of the most stacked years ever, in terms of talent at the center position. It could make a difference in terms of Olajuwon's numbers, compared to Duncan. It could affect Hakeem's numbers in a negative way. He faced those guys (all of the players I mentioned) in 22 total games.
I think that Olajuwon was a little better defensively, and I'm not sure about giving Duncan the edge in terms of scoring. Hakeem was normally capable of higher volume scoring, bigger scoring explosions, on very comparable efficiency. Besides, I'm not gonna lie - eye test had something to do with that, as well. Hakeem impressed me a little bit more. Obviously we're splitting hairs here, and I certainly wouldn't mind Duncan winning it over Olajuwon, as TD is one of my top 3 favorite players, and I'm very high on his peak, but I think Hakeem was slightly better.
By the way - as much as I appreciate Spaceman's effort to make a good case for Robinson, I think he relies on that one botched pick & roll by Hakeem, too much. I've seen hundreds of Olajuwon's games, and he rarely made mistakes like that. In terms of concentration on defense, I'd probably give D-Rob a slight edge, but both Robinson and Olajuwon had an incredible ability to recover and get back on defense for a highlight block (as well as chase guys down on the break - I mean look at that:
Spoiler:
I'd give Robinson a slight edge in terms of defensive IQ (but Hakeem had arguably the GOAT defensive instincts, while D-Rob relied more on out-thinking his opponents - Spaceman once said that Robinson was the smartest defender he ever saw, and even though I'd take Russell and Duncan over Robinson in terms of defensive smarts, he's still top 3-5 all-time - this is not to say that Olajuwon didn't have a great defensive IQ, or Robinson didn't have elite defensive instincts - no, they had an abundance of both, but I think their approach was a little different).
Hakeem had a little higher IQ on the offensive end, though. It wasn't just about his skills or athleticism - he was an awfully clever offensive player, too - the way he could split double teams and find open shooters was amazing for a center - I'm sure his amazing agility for a center had a lot to do with that, as well.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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mischievous
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Re: Peaks Project #5
My eye test has Hakeem as a little better passer than Duncan. Duncan may average more assists per 100, but i don't think volume of assists always means "better passer". I could be wrong though, either way there ain't much diff in passing either direction.
Re: Peaks Project #5
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mischievous
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Re: Peaks Project #5
For those arguing Drob and KG's peak over Hakeem and Kareem, are we ignoring how much better the latter 2 were in the playoffs?
KG 04 playoffs 24.3/14.6/5.1 4.2 TOV 51.3 ts% 25 PER His offense clearly fell off in the playoffs, nothing significant but noticeable.
DRob 1995 playoffs: 25.3/12.1/3.1 3.7 TOV 53.6 ts% 22.6 PER Drob's offense just flat out fell off a cliff from the regular season, he scored 2.3 less ppg on a -6.6 ts% and a -6.5 PER. That's a ridiculously bad drop off from regular season performance.
On the contrast:
77 Kareem playoffs: 34.6/17.7/4.1 64.6 ts% 32.4 PER
94 Hakeem plaoyffs: 28.9/11/4.3/ 56.8 ts% 27.7 PER
KG 04 playoffs 24.3/14.6/5.1 4.2 TOV 51.3 ts% 25 PER His offense clearly fell off in the playoffs, nothing significant but noticeable.
DRob 1995 playoffs: 25.3/12.1/3.1 3.7 TOV 53.6 ts% 22.6 PER Drob's offense just flat out fell off a cliff from the regular season, he scored 2.3 less ppg on a -6.6 ts% and a -6.5 PER. That's a ridiculously bad drop off from regular season performance.
On the contrast:
77 Kareem playoffs: 34.6/17.7/4.1 64.6 ts% 32.4 PER
94 Hakeem plaoyffs: 28.9/11/4.3/ 56.8 ts% 27.7 PER
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Jim Naismith
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Re: Peaks Project #5
mischievous wrote:For those arguing Drob and KG's peak over Hakeem and Kareem, are we ignoring how much better the latter 2 were in the playoffs?
KG 04 playoffs 24.3/14.6/5.1 4.2 TOV 51.3 ts% 25 PER His offense clearly fell off in the playoffs, nothing significant but noticeable.
DRob 1995 playoffs: 25.3/12.1/3.1 3.7 TOV 53.6 ts% 22.6 PER Drob's offense just flat out fell off a cliff from the regular season, he scored 2.3 less ppg on a -6.6 ts% and a -6.5 PER. That's a ridiculously bad drop off from regular season performance.
On the contrast:
77 Kareem playoffs: 34.6/17.7/4.1 64.6 ts% 32.4 PER
94 Hakeem plaoyffs: 28.9/11/4.3/ 56.8 ts% 27.7 PER
For analysis of playoff dropoff for star players, I highly recommend this great series of posts (accompanied by comprehensive data) by PatsSoxKnicks from Pro Sports Daily:
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?712733-dropoffs-in-WS-48-from-regular-season-to-playoffs
From this data source, we have:
Bottom ten WS/48 dropoffs (worst at the bottom)
Kareem
Drexler
Garnett
Wilt
Stockton
Payton
D-Rob
Pettit
Karl Malone
Nique
Bottom ten PER dropoffs (worst at the bottom)
Oscar
Pierce
Cousy
Parish
Pettit
Karl Malone
Nique
D-Rob
Wilt
Payton
Bottom ten TS% dropoffs (worst at the bottom)
Payton
Wilt
Parish
Nique
Barkley
Garnett
D-Rob
Ewing
Stockton
Karl Malone
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Dr Spaceman
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Okay I have a question for everyone who voted Wilt in the last thread: Considering that Wilt was 9th on his team in FGA/36 in both the regular season and playoffs, what exactly makes you think Robinson (or even Duncan or Garnett) couldn't do exactly the same thing on that team? I mean, if we accept the premise that Robinson is a near GOAT-level defender, and that team would mitigate David's biggest flaw (playoff scoring), what the heck is stopping you from just plugging Robinson into that team and seeing a greater result?
This frankly smacks of "the mystique of Wilt", and I think people are viewing that role reduction through some really rose-tinted lenses. There is in fact a reason that happened, and it leads to an essentially inescapable conclusion about Wilt's offense.
This frankly smacks of "the mystique of Wilt", and I think people are viewing that role reduction through some really rose-tinted lenses. There is in fact a reason that happened, and it leads to an essentially inescapable conclusion about Wilt's offense.
“I’m not the fastest guy on the court, but I can dictate when the race begins.”
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Dr Spaceman
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Re: Peaks Project #5
mischievous wrote:My eye test has Hakeem as a little better passer than Duncan. Duncan may average more assists per 100, but i don't think volume of assists always means "better passer". I could be wrong though, either way there ain't much diff in passing either direction.
Duncan's offense was indeed very good, but IMO not for the traditional reasons. Tim Duncan's offense was a heartbeat- just constantly pumping in the background, laying down the foundation of the team. They certainly don't win those titles without his offense.
That said, there's a ceiling on how high a Duncan-centric offense can go, and frankly it's not high. Hakeem should be seen as superior in that sense, given the way those Houston teams structured themselves. Could Duncan have done the same thing? IMO no; just not the same creative playmaker.
Also frankly there's a reason the Spurs have gotten so good on offense lately, and that directly coincided with the ball being taken out of Duncan's hands. Now peak Duncan is not a perfect analogue, because of the reduced mobility and such, but during the rest of dun can't prime after 03 Ginobili was clearly driving the offense, and doing a damn better job of it than Duncan.
Also re: Duncan, there should be a little more discussion about when exactly he peaked. 03 is obviously the best two-way season, but IMO every year from 99-02 he was a better offensive player, and every year from 04-07 he was better on defense. Are we sure he wasn't simply reallocating his energy in a different way in 03, and that his play wasn't just that damn consistent over that stretch?
“I’m not the fastest guy on the court, but I can dictate when the race begins.”
Re: Peaks Project #5
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Dr Spaceman
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Re: Peaks Project #5
Also if Kareem has entered as a serious candidate at this point then we need to get discussion started on Bill Walton. It's not clear at all that Kareem was even better than Walton in the very year we're bringing up, and in pretty much all the time I've considered peak rankings I've had Walton>Kareem.
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGeI6ypgtP0[/youtube]
The Mountain Man was ridiculous, pretty easily a top 2 passing big man, and the evidence that he was the most impactful player of the late 70s is overwhelming. I'll say this too: if we're comfortable voting in Wilt Chamberlain knowing everything we do about the role he played, we should be comfortable with the idea of voting in Walton over Kareem as well.
I know you were a big Walton supporter during top100, would you consider making an argument here?
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGeI6ypgtP0[/youtube]
The Mountain Man was ridiculous, pretty easily a top 2 passing big man, and the evidence that he was the most impactful player of the late 70s is overwhelming. I'll say this too: if we're comfortable voting in Wilt Chamberlain knowing everything we do about the role he played, we should be comfortable with the idea of voting in Walton over Kareem as well.
HeartBreakKid wrote:.
I know you were a big Walton supporter during top100, would you consider making an argument here?
“I’m not the fastest guy on the court, but I can dictate when the race begins.”