Hawks -- State of the Franchise

[Jamaaliver]

Atlanta’s Defensive Shot Profile Is A Disaster

Some of the most scandalizing numbers when it comes to Atlanta’s 26th ranked defense is the fact that they rank dead last in defensive locational eFG%*, in large part due to the fact that they are conceding shots at the rim at the third-highest rate in the league and corner three-pointers at the highest rate in the league, per cleaningtheglass.com. The Hawks join the Wizards, Hornets, and Bulls (far from elite company) as the only teams to rank in the bottom-10 in both of these categories, and they are in fact the only team to rank in the bottom-5 in both categories.



Part of the problem is that the Hawks are conceding a high rate of transition possessions after a missed shot, as their opponents are turning defensive rebounds into transition opportunities at the fourth highest rate in the league. In these instances, with fewer defenders back and in position to guard, it’s easier for opposing teams to get shots from these high value areas of the floor.

Another concern increasing the stress on the defense is when the Hawks are overaggressive when chasing steals. To their credit, the team ranks second in steals per game (9.2), and seventh in opponent turnover percentage (15.7%) — an improvement from last season in which they ranked 18th in steals and 16th in opponent turnover percentage. However, there have been times when this aggression has worked to their disadvantage.

Atlanta can rack up all the steals they want (Young and Murray rank 12th and sixth in the NBA in steals per game - nice!) but if their defensive activity doesn’t actually translate to an improved defense, it’s not going to do the team any good. The Hawks need to be smarter when it comes to evaluating the risk/reward payoffs of their actions on the defensive end of the floor.

As has been the case for years in Atlanta, defense is going to make or break this team. The Hawks have finished in the bottom-10 in defensive rating in five out of the past six seasons, and the one season that they didn’t (2020-21), they were the beneficiaries of a bit of shooting luck, as their opponent’s shot just 35.1% from three against them* — the 3rd lowest opponent 3P% in the league that season. Whatever is preventing them from putting together a competent defense is the same thing that is preventing them from breaking into the elite class of the Eastern Conference.

Improving their defensive shot profile is the least they can do if they are to begin to take steps in the right direction.

Peachtree Hoops

[graymule]

Coach Quin said he would install the offense first, then the defense.

If he hasn't installed the defense yet, don't worry about it. It's coming.

If he has already installed his defense (unlikely) then the Hawks need to be hunting a new head coach.

[Jamaaliver]

1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs at this point?
Worst team in the NBA against the spread?

Yikes!!! The odds are certainly NOT in our favor.

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[Jamaaliver]

NBA Power Rankings: Week 7

21. Atlanta Hawks (9-11)

Previous Rank: 20
Net Rating: +0.2

The Atlanta Hawks just can't seem to escape mediocrity.

Just about every time it looks like they might be starting to get some traction, they put together a disappointing stretch like the 0-2 week they just finished.

On the bright side, Trae Young's shooting numbers are recovering from an ice-cold start, and Dejounte Murray and Bogdan Bogdanović have both had their moments in the backcourt.

But Atlanta can't stop anyone right now, and it's going to continue to hover around .500 until it figures out how to scheme around its diminutive point guard.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

Grading Every Team's 1st Quarter of the Season

Atlanta Hawks: C

An early-season shooting slump sort of threw people off Trae Young, but he's quietly having a pretty absurd offensive season. Young is averaging 27.2 points and 10.6 assists while posting a just-below-average true shooting percentage.

The problem is that the Atlanta Hawks are below .500, barely outscoring opponents when Young plays and actually posting a slightly better point differential when he doesn't.

As the current unquestioned face of the franchise, you'd like the most basic indicator of success (plus-minus) to look a little better.

Of course, those marks aren't entirely on Young. Basketball is a team sport, and he's not solely responsible for the Hawks once again being near the bottom of the league in defense.

Players like Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu and De'Andre Hunter have to be better on that end, especially as breakout forward Jalen Johnson continues to recover from a wrist injury.

Of all the players on this team, he might somehow be the most important. When Atlanta has Johnson's shooting and multipositional defense on the floor, it is plus-5.2 points per 100 possessions (compared to minus-2.7 when he's off).

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

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[jayu70]

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Like I said earlier this week. Making trades to cut cost as a priority vs having functional NBA talent is problematic.

[Jamaaliver]

Like I said earlier this week. Making trades to cut cost as a priority vs having functional NBA talent is problematic.

Do you honestly believe that the presence of John Collins and Kevin Huerter on this roster would have us in a much better situation than we're currently in?

[hawks_fan25]

I am in the "tear it all down and rebuild" camp. We're going to continue to be a mediocre team that shows flashes of brilliance, but can never sustain it in a 7-game series vs the best teams with with core. I'd trade Trae, CC, Hunter and Bogi for as many FRPs and expirings as we can get. Starting a rebuild with DJM, OO, JJ in place long-term is not a bad place to be.

Trae and Bogi have a ton of value to a contender looking for ball-handling and shooting while CC and Hunter offer value on the defensive end.

[jayu70]

Like I said earlier this week. Making trades to cut cost as a priority vs having functional NBA talent is problematic.

Do you honestly believe that the presence of John Collins and Kevin Huerter on this roster would have us in a much better situation than we're currently in?

Yes - we would not have been as talent deprived as we are.
Like I said I take no issue with the trades in of themselves, it was also about timing and return. We keep circling the wagon trading guys with some level of NBA contributing talent for none to get under the Tax. As long as that is the approach - we'll keep ending up right back here.

[jayu70]

Form This:

PG: Trae Young, Patty Mills, Kobe Bufkin,
SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Garrison Mathews
SF: DeAndre Hunter, AJ Griffin, Wesley Matthews
PF: Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey, Mouhammed Gueye
C - Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu, Bruno Fernando



To This:

PG: Trae Young
SG: Dejounte Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovich
SF: Mat(t)hews
PF: Saddiq Bey
C - Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu

injured until January: Kobe, Gueye, JJ

On the struggle bus and now out: AJ

Riding the pine: Patty, Bruno, Lundy

[Jamaaliver]

Yes - we would not have been as talent deprived as we are.
Like I said I take no issue with the trades in of themselves, it was also about timing and return. We keep circling the wagon trading guys with some level of NBA contributing talent for none to get under the Tax. As long as that is the approach - we'll keep ending up right back here.

I'm not disagreeing. Just playing devil's advocate.

Honestly, despite our record, I don't think we're in terrible shape as a team or a franchise.

Focusing on process and not results, there's a lot here to be optimistic about.

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[Jamaaliver]

[jayu70]

Yes - we would not have been as talent deprived as we are.
Like I said I take no issue with the trades in of themselves, it was also about timing and return. We keep circling the wagon trading guys with some level of NBA contributing talent for none to get under the Tax. As long as that is the approach - we'll keep ending up right back here.

I'm not disagreeing. Just playing devil's advocate.

Honestly, despite our record, I don't think we're in terrible shape as a team or a franchise.

Focusing on process and not results, there's a lot here to be optimistic about.

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I don't like Ressler putting lipstick on a pig and telling me it's not a pig. Still a pig but with just more makeup.
If the plan is to build the team Quin's way, and live with the results, say so.
Don't have it like you expect to avoid the play-in and be top 4, top 6 and have it be some referendum for changes if it happens when the investment in the talent is being avoided. Invest in on court talent if you are serious about winning and competing.
JJ alone going out with injury should not have caused such a spiral. No viable backup to give us at least 50% of what he gave us.

[Jamaaliver]

I don't like Ressler putting lipstick on a pig and telling me it's not a pig. Still a pig but with just more makeup.
If the plan is to build the team Quin's way, and live with the results, say so.
Don't have it like you expect to avoid the play-in and be top 4, top 6 and have it be some referendum for changes if it happens when the investment in the talent is being avoided. Invest in on court talent if you are serious about winning and competing.
JJ alone going out with injury should not have caused such a spiral. No viable backup to give us at least 50% of what he gave us.

I think Ressler has spent money on this squad.

He approved signing Gallo.
He approved signing Bogdan.
He approved trading for Capela.
He approved trading for DeJounte.
He approved extending Bogdan, Capela, Dejounte, Collins, Hunter, Huerter, Okongwu.
He approved signing Quin Snyder (probably the best coach on the market last spring) to the largest coaching deal in team history.

This doesn't even include the practice facility built under his watch or the renovations to State Farm Arena.

The Atlanta Spirit were cheap owners. Ressler isn't.





Tony Ressler is to blame for running the grown ups in the front office out of town and handing the keys to his inexperienced son.... That's his sin.

[jayu70]

I don't like Ressler putting lipstick on a pig and telling me it's not a pig. Still a pig but with just more makeup.
If the plan is to build the team Quin's way, and live with the results, say so.
Don't have it like you expect to avoid the play-in and be top 4, top 6 and have it be some referendum for changes if it happens when the investment in the talent is being avoided. Invest in on court talent if you are serious about winning and competing.
JJ alone going out with injury should not have caused such a spiral. No viable backup to give us at least 50% of what he gave us.

I think Ressler has spent money on this squad.

He approved signing Gallo.
He approved signing Bogdan.
He approved trading for Capela.
He approved trading for DeJounte.
He approved extending Bogdan, Capela, Dejounte, Collins, Hunter, Huerter, Okongwu.
He approved signing Quin Snyder (probably the best coach on the market last spring) to the largest coaching deal in team history.

This doesn't even include the practice facility built under his watch or the renovations to State Farm Arena.

The Atlanta Spirit were cheap owners. Ressler isn't.





Tony Ressler is to blame for running the grown ups in the front office out of town and handing the keys to his inexperienced son.... That's his sin.

I don't disagree that he has 'spent money' in general, but it has always been 'just barely enough.' He's just shuffling the money. There is always a story percolating about 'getting out of the tax' after making a trade or signing guys. And whenever those types of trades happen, the on-court product is diminished. What's the point of signing and extending these guys if we turn around and trade them for nothing but savings.
Let me be clear, I'm not saying that we should go into the Tax just to do it, but that what we are getting back in these trades leaves us struggling on the court over and over again.
Also, it's less about Ressler paying the tax vs what he gains by not paying and what he gains from the tax paying teams that do pay the tax. He received at least $15 million from last season's tax paying teams.

[Jamaaliver]

I don't disagree that he has 'spent money' in general, but it has always been 'just barely enough.' He's just shuffling the money. There is always a story percolating about 'getting out of the tax' after making a trade or signing guys. And whenever those types of trades happen, the on-court product is diminished. What's the point of signing and extending these guys if we turn around and trade them for nothing but savings.
Let me be clear, I'm not saying that we should go into the Tax just to do it, but that what we are getting back in these trades leaves us struggling on the court over and over again.
Also, it's less about Ressler paying the tax vs what he gains by not paying and what he gains from the tax paying teams that do pay the tax. He received at least $15 million from last season's tax paying teams.

You are making undeniably good points.

But this is still a business, and I can't see any smart businessman going into the tax for a team that can't even win 45 games every season.

But we might be approaching a chicken and egg situation:

• Are Hawks mediocre because Tony won't spend into the luxury tax?
• Or won't Tony spend into the luxury tax because Hawks are so mediocre?

(My head is starting to hurt.)

[jayu70]

I don't disagree that he has 'spent money' in general, but it has always been 'just barely enough.' He's just shuffling the money. There is always a story percolating about 'getting out of the tax' after making a trade or signing guys. And whenever those types of trades happen, the on-court product is diminished. What's the point of signing and extending these guys if we turn around and trade them for nothing but savings.
Let me be clear, I'm not saying that we should go into the Tax just to do it, but that what we are getting back in these trades leaves us struggling on the court over and over again.
Also, it's less about Ressler paying the tax vs what he gains by not paying and what he gains from the tax paying teams that do pay the tax. He received at least $15 million from last season's tax paying teams.

You are making undeniably good points.

But this is still a business, and I can't see any smart businessman going into the tax for a team that can't even win 45 games every season.

But we might be approaching a chicken and egg situation:

• Are Hawks mediocre because Tony won't spend into the luxury tax?
• Or won't Tony spend into the luxury tax because Hawks are so mediocre?

(My head is starting to hurt.)

Well, we didn't have a chance to adequately compete to 45 wins to start last season, so how do we know we could not?
Example: we trade for DJ, keep Huerter and resign Delon. Give the team a chance to play some games and see how it unfolds to start the season. Instead, we had Justin and Aaron Holiday to start the season.
My head hurts too.

[Jamaaliver]

Well, we didn't have a chance to adequately compete to 45 wins to start last season, so how do we know we could not?

Example: we trade for DJ, keep Huerter and resign Delon. Give the team a chance to play some games and see how it unfolds to start the season. Instead, we had Justin and Aaron Holiday to start the season.
My head hurts too.

I'd have a hard time going into the luxury tax to keep Kevin Huerter and Delon Wright. Especially when trying to avoid the repeater tax for future flexibility.

To your point, our payroll is pretty low in comparison to other franchises. That likely explains why we're stuck in mediocrity.