The Defense thread 2024 (Final DPOY vote)

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Who's your 2024 DPOY

Rudy Gobert
15
50%
Victor Wembanyama
10
33%
Bam Adebayo
0
No votes
Alex Caruso
1
3%
Jalen Suggs
0
No votes
Anthony Davis
0
No votes
Herb Jones
2
7%
Derrick White
2
7%
Isaiah Hartenstein
0
No votes
Other (List them but remember than Isaac, Draymond, OG etc. are not eligible!)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 30

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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#621 » by G R E Y » Wed Mar 20, 2024 1:48 pm

itsxtray wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:
Rebuttal

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter

I don't get the tweet's point about specific lineups...

Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#622 » by itsxtray » Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:09 pm

G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:
G R E Y wrote:I don't get the tweet's point about specific lineups...

Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.

No doubt, Wemby has had giant impact and has improved as the season has gone on, especially since he's moved to center. However, if Goldsberry were consistent, he would say OG is the best defender in the NBA by his own methodology. The Knicks have been historic with him on the floor, but does that prove he's the best defender in the NBA? I don't think so; the sample size is too small. The same goes for Wemby's sample, so trying to use it to claim he's the best defender in the NBA is flawed.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#623 » by cupcakesnake » Wed Mar 20, 2024 6:53 pm

G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:
G R E Y wrote:I don't get the tweet's point about specific lineups...

Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.


I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

I haven't watched the Spurs enough to have strong feeling on this. I know it's been better lately but why is the Spurs defense so bad? Who is to blame. It's obviously anybody but Wemby, but I'm just wondering. Vassell and Sochan were both great defensive prospects coming into the NBA, but I haven't deep dived into them lately.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#624 » by G R E Y » Wed Mar 20, 2024 7:09 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.


I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

I haven't watched the Spurs enough to have strong feeling on this. I know it's been better lately but why is the Spurs defense so bad? Who is to blame. It's obviously anybody but Wemby, but I'm just wondering. Vassell and Sochan were both great defensive prospects coming into the NBA, but I haven't deep dived into them lately.

'Who is to blame' is not really as constructive. Do rebuilding teams have good team D? Is that a thing right off the bat or do they grow into it both internally via development and via draft, trades, FA, etc.?

As you point out, we have some good individual defenders. And some bad ones. All of them are young and playing together now (ie/ not as buoyed by vets of yesteryear) while most are learning the system, accepting that for us two way play is primary, sometimes needing benchings for the mindset of D effort to sink in.

Branham stands out here.

Vassell's D is still good but his O has also taken a leap and that balance is something of a WIP. Between last season's first half of starting for the first time and this season, he's learning what it takes in this role.

Tre is a dogged defender but he also has physical restrictions that just are what they are.

Sochan is often tasked with defending the best opponent scorers, switching 1 through 4. He's coming along on D.

Other times, it's good raw D material that needs fine tuning that reps provide. Blake Wesley is a good example of it. Dom Barlow, too.

All of which is to say that a rebuilding team needs time to put it together. And to say that some players won't be with us much longer.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#625 » by itsxtray » Wed Mar 20, 2024 7:20 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.


I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

Spot on. My issue was trying to use data from just the last 15 games to claim that Wemby was the best defender. It's ridiculous. Anyone who knows anything about sample size in the NBA, which Goldsberry should know, understands that such a small sample is too noisy.

Don't get me wrong, Wemby could very well be the best defender in the league next season, but his body of work this season doesn't support it.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#626 » by CIN-C-STAR » Wed Mar 20, 2024 8:04 pm

itsxtray wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
G R E Y wrote:Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.


I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

Spot on. My issue was trying to use data from just the last 15 games to claim that Wemby was the best defender. It's ridiculous. Anyone who knows anything about sample size in the NBA, which Goldsberry should know, understands that such a small sample is too noisy.

Don't get me wrong, Wemby could very well be the best defender in the league next season, but his body of work this season doesn't support it.


Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA right now, and the data supports that.
Doesn't mean he has been the best defensive player this season, which includes data from months ago when he was playing out of position and still adjusting to the NBA game.
I feel like those are two different things that are kind of being conflated here, especially when we are discussing a rookie who has shown tremendous improvement as the season has gone along.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#627 » by itsxtray » Wed Mar 20, 2024 8:17 pm

CIN-C-STAR wrote:
itsxtray wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

Spot on. My issue was trying to use data from just the last 15 games to claim that Wemby was the best defender. It's ridiculous. Anyone who knows anything about sample size in the NBA, which Goldsberry should know, understands that such a small sample is too noisy.

Don't get me wrong, Wemby could very well be the best defender in the league next season, but his body of work this season doesn't support it.


Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA right now, and the data supports that.
Doesn't mean he has been the best defensive player this season, which includes data from months ago when he was playing out of position and still adjusting to the NBA game.
I feel like those are two different things that are kind of being conflated here, especially when we are discussing a rookie who has shown tremendous improvement as the season has gone along.

Actually, the data supports OG and the Knicks being historic when he's on the floor, if we wanna go there.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#628 » by CIN-C-STAR » Thu Mar 21, 2024 1:37 am

itsxtray wrote:
CIN-C-STAR wrote:
itsxtray wrote:Spot on. My issue was trying to use data from just the last 15 games to claim that Wemby was the best defender. It's ridiculous. Anyone who knows anything about sample size in the NBA, which Goldsberry should know, understands that such a small sample is too noisy.

Don't get me wrong, Wemby could very well be the best defender in the league next season, but his body of work this season doesn't support it.


Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA right now, and the data supports that.
Doesn't mean he has been the best defensive player this season, which includes data from months ago when he was playing out of position and still adjusting to the NBA game.
I feel like those are two different things that are kind of being conflated here, especially when we are discussing a rookie who has shown tremendous improvement as the season has gone along.

Actually, the data supports OG and the Knicks being historic when he's on the floor, if we wanna go there.


Again, if we're talking right now, OG is out indefinitely w elbow inflammation.
I agree the Knicks' defense overall has been tremendous, but that is a team accomplishment, including the coaching staff.
The best defender on the Spurs after Wemby is probably Blake Wesley? Maybe Sochan, who is probably around league average.
Literally everyone else on the team is well below average to awful on that side of the floor. You could put prime Bill Russell, Tim Duncan, whoever you want on this Spurs team in place of Wemby and their team defense would still be terrible.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#629 » by basketballRob » Thu Mar 21, 2024 11:40 am

itsxtray wrote:
G R E Y wrote:
itsxtray wrote:Goldsberry was comparing Wemby's on/off to entire teams defensive ratings not specific players thats why Hoopvenue used JWill and OG as examples of players with even better numbers than Wembys to show Goldsberrys approach was flawed.

Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.

No doubt, Wemby has had giant impact and has improved as the season has gone on, especially since he's moved to center. However, if Goldsberry were consistent, he would say OG is the best defender in the NBA by his own methodology. The Knicks have been historic with him on the floor, but does that prove he's the best defender in the NBA? I don't think so; the sample size is too small. The same goes for Wemby's sample, so trying to use it to claim he's the best defender in the NBA is flawed.
Isaac is a better defender than OG in my opinion and possibly the best defender in the NBA when he plays. I've watched Isaac and OG play against each other many times. Orlando has the #1 defense since the all-star break and #3 for the season.

Suggs may be better, too.

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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#630 » by shrink » Thu Mar 21, 2024 1:09 pm

I like the change in the thread title, and the poll is challenging. With so many D-BIGS out there, it’s hard to choose only four.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#631 » by Castle Black » Fri Mar 22, 2024 3:46 pm

Insane that this guy isn't going to win DPOY this season. Will go down as arguably the biggest DPOY robbery ever imo, though I also understand why he's not going to win it.


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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#632 » by Castle Black » Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:50 pm

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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#633 » by shrink » Sun Mar 24, 2024 12:27 am

Castle Black wrote:
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Nice clip! Gobert’s announcers call them, “never minds.” :lol:
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#634 » by basketballRob » Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:25 am

Isaac has been the best player on the court over the last 10 games or so.

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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#635 » by Harry Palmer » Mon Mar 25, 2024 10:20 am

It’s ridiculously early to say this, but with his preternatural athleticism, effort and astonishingly high defensive awareness/instincts, I am almost ready to say, barring injury, Amen Thompson (and I assume his brother) has a very good chance to be amongst the best defenders the game has seen.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#636 » by WestGOAT » Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:28 pm

basketballRob wrote:Isaac has been the best player on the court over the last 10 games or so.

Read on Twitter
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If it's defensive impact per possession it's definitely Isaac:
https://www.pbpstats.com/on-off/nba/stat?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&TeamId=1610612753&Stat=PtsPer100PossOpponent&Leverage=Medium,High,VeryHigh

In non-garbage time minutes, Magic are already a respectable 114.7 DRtg with him off the court, but when he manages to play they go down to 102.6, a difference of more than 12!! OG is also good shout, but I think his numbers are confounded by the post all-star break change in officiating.

itsxtray wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
G R E Y wrote:Flawed, ok, but still showing a trend that is true. It's clear that both Wemby and OG are excellent defenders, all the more important to teams like ours with poor D while on the rebuild. That OG's D impact is apparent on a good team - and that they traded for him for it to begin with - is also a testament.

I am not talking about JWill because I really don't know much about his two-way game.

Like you can't argue against D impact of a single great defensive player even if KG's method may be flawed. This highlights the issue of the method itself, not the impact.


I think it's pretty common for writers to compare single lineup ratings to team ratings. I think the point is to give the read a frame of reference for what a 106 Drtg means, assuming all readers don't know what the average Drtg for a lineup is. Also it's a lot more work to look up more relevant lineup date. It's just a quick anecdote to let people know that an individual player is having big impact on the lineups he's in.

To me, lineup data like this is pretty flawed and only gives us the slightest of indicators. You need to know the other 4 players in any lineup. Lineup data assumption always seems to be: Wemby any ANY OTHER 4 mystery box players produce X Drtg. In reality, rotations are usually more consistent and lineup data is about who you're most tied to. It boosts the guys who play in the strongest defensive lineups (including bad defenders), and hurts the good defenders used to prop up vulnerable lineups.

Spot on. My issue was trying to use data from just the last 15 games to claim that Wemby was the best defender. It's ridiculous. Anyone who knows anything about sample size in the NBA, which Goldsberry should know, understands that such a small sample is too noisy.

Don't get me wrong, Wemby could very well be the best defender in the league next season, but his body of work this season doesn't support it.


Yup very misleading way to apply these stats, line-up data is great but you gotta do apples-to-apples comparisons, even when you have a large sample size.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#637 » by Bornstellar » Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:58 pm

basketballRob wrote:Isaac has been the best player on the court over the last 10 games or so.

Read on Twitter
?t=ziuTDo5eu_ta-a_PW9eblg&s=19

This dude is an absolute MENACE on D, it's too bad he has a lot of trouble staying on the court for health reasons because he's honestly one of the best defenders I've ever seen.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#638 » by Mrakar » Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:31 am

Pelicans going all-on on Herbs all-defensive 1st team case.
https://www.nba.com/pelicans/players/herbert-jones
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#639 » by cupcakesnake » Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:27 pm

Mrakar wrote:Pelicans going all-on on Herbs all-defensive 1st team case.
https://www.nba.com/pelicans/players/herbert-jones


I think he deserves a unanimous first team. The work he does as a man defender, a nail defender, and the ferocity of his close outs and 3-point contests is just a wonder to behold. He props up 4 average-to-bad defenders on a nightly basis, which actively hurts his on/off derived numbers.

His traditional wing rivals aren't having big campaigns this year. OG was too injured, Mikal Bridges defenses for offense, Tatum has too many Celtics in front of him. I haven't heard that much noise for Jaden (forgotten on a stacked defensive team?) or Dillon Brooks this year. I'm aware that all-defense is positionless this year, but I still anticipate many voters will submit teams that look somewhat traditional.

The only thing that worries me about Herb's case is how much love I hear a lot of guards getting (White, Jrue, Caruso, Suggs). I heard some smart people propose teams where all 4 of those guards made it and the the rest were bigs. I felt like... wait you're going to put all those guards on and ignore players that do the same thing but with 7-foot wingspans? To me I'm starting with wings and bigs and then seeing if I can squeeze guards in (or see how many bigs and wings I can justify them leapfrogging.

For non-bigs on the all-defense team, I'm starting with Herb.
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Re: The Defense thread 2024 (currently voting all-D BIGS) 

Post#640 » by Residual-Heat » Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:34 am

Love Herb Jones. He deserves consideration for sure. Great contract too.

https://www.nba.com/news/2022-23-all-defensive-teams-announced

Who has a good chance at repeating?

Id say Caruso. I dont think Holiday, JJr, Lopez or Mobley are going to make an all-defensive team. Mobley doesnt qualify anyway because he missed too many games.

Bam should make an all-defensive team. White too. OG wont play enough games. Brooks I dont think so. Green no.

The likely DPOY (Gobert) this season didnt make an all-defensive team last year.
The DPOY last season (Jaren Jackson Jr) may not make an all-defensive team this year. Blocks are way down and his team is really bad. Not bad defensively though.

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