The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

Again, I posted 4 full seasons of numbers from Risacher. You once again choose to only partially quote my post to include one of those four seasons.

You also literally changed/edited my post and present it as if your are directly quoting me, which you have a history of doing. Not to mention you present completely false information in the comments that you added into my post, which you also have a history of doing. Risacher is currently 18 years old in 23/24, he was 17 in 22/23, 16 in 21/22, and 15 in 20/21, not 14.

The level of spiraling when someone disagrees with you is completely ridiculous. I’m gonna stop taking the bait now so it doesn’t continue to pollute the draft thread, but you certainly make it tough with the spewing of misinformation and intentionally quoting people out of context(or even literally changing peoples quotes), I’ll give you that!

[payitforward]

Actually, I cited NCAA tournament losses for all 3 seasons of Edey’s career, all of which came against inferior competition/lower seeded teams, a couple of embarrassing 1st round exits. It’s kinda like how I cited Risacher’s numbers from the last 4 years, not just his age 15 season. There’s no reason to continue to intentionally take people out of context in an attempt to win an argument.

I also posted his college career A/TO ratio, not any one year in particular. Obviously, the number has improved in 4 full seasons. As it stands, still significantly negative overall. With all the post touches and usage, he’s simply not a playmaker that you can run an offense through. He dunks the ball and shoots hook shots if you don’t double him.

In his college career Edey has taken 1415 FGAs. He's made 878 of them. That's an efg% of .621 & a TS% of .649.

But... that's by no means a sufficient indicator of his offensive production. Why? Because to go with his 537 missed FGAs, he's also collected 516 offensive rebounds. That's a net of 21 wasted offensive possessions by Edey in the process of collecting 2831 points! Of course, we should also add turnovers (77) to the wasted possessions -- & then subtract steals (10), each of which in effect makes up for a TO.

So, shooting the ball it's now it's 1757 points gained using 1145 possessions (1415 FGAs & 256 TOs minus 516 Offensive Rebounds & 10 steals). That's a net offensive % of 76.7% shooting the ball.

Plus, that's on a career usage of 32.7%.

Hard to imagine him failing in the NBA.

[pcbothwel]

Castle looked really good last night. His Ceiling archetype is Jimmy Butler. Connecter 2/3 with elite strength/balance. Plus athlete with mediocre wingspan, high level IQ/Competitiveness.
Low Outcome: Hart / Bruce Brown / Okoro
Likely: Deni / Caruso
High: Derek White / Deni
Ceiling: Butler

As with Sheppard and Topic, I have ZERO hesitation taking a guy like this in the 6-12 range of most drafts. It's just a letdown that we have to use a top 5 pick to get them this year.

[nate33]

Castle looked really good last night. His Ceiling archetype is Jimmy Butler. Connecter 2/3 with elite strength/balance. Plus athlete with mediocre wingspan, high level IQ/Competitiveness.
Low Outcome: Hart / Bruce Brown / Okoro
Likely: Deni / Caruso
High: Derek White / Deni
Ceiling: Butler

As with Sheppard and Topic, I have ZERO hesitation taking a guy like this in the 6-12 range of most drafts. It's just a letdown that we have to use a top 5 pick to get them this year.

I think Hart is a very good comp. He might have a bit more playmaking in him so I can see the Derek White comparison too.

I'm reluctant to use Jimmy Butler as a comp because he is a pretty unique guy who plays so much bigger than he is given his wingspan. Butler was also a really late bloomer - something you rarely see in wings.

[doclinkin]

Risacher is currently 18 years old in 23/24, he was 17 in 22/23, 16 in 21/22, and 15 in 20/21, not 14.

Ok Corrected. And Edited to make it clear. 15 years old. That makes all the difference Thanks for totally not addressing the point that averaging in a player's youngest years makes little sense, especially as a a means to dismiss their latest results. My understanding is that most 15 year olds are 'inconsistent'. And that players can and do get better with experience. And that is relevant. But go ahead. I can drop it, I think in general we agree on many things in player analysis and generally highlight the same players. Not sure why that one bugs me. I think I was looking for you to justify it and break down why it matters, instead of doubling down on it. I'm always curious on the reasoning behind an argument, even if I disagree. But hell I'm the guy who reads the commentary and the edits on a Wikipedia page. Where the experts on a topic duel it out. I get it that's not for everybody. It's partly why I'm here though and not I dunno, wizards twitter.

[doclinkin]

Castle looked really good last night. His Ceiling archetype is Jimmy Butler. Connecter 2/3 with elite strength/balance. Plus athlete with mediocre wingspan, high level IQ/Competitiveness.

I think Hart is a very good comp. He might have a bit more playmaking in him so I can see the Derek White comparison too.

I'm reluctant to use Jimmy Butler as a comp because he is a pretty unique guy who plays so much bigger than he is given his wingspan. Butler was also a really late bloomer - something you rarely see in wings.

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

That said I don't think he's going to measure with a 'mediocre wingspan'. Reports say he's 6'6" with a 6'9" wingspan. Looks about right to me. He's more strong than he is bouncy or twitchy, but he uses it well. In play style he does remind me of the guard version of Deni. Switchable team player who can fit 1-3, and is more about setting up the right play than seizing the starring role. What he does differently than Deni though is in his demeanor and presence. I don't think I've seen him complain to a ref once. Ever. About anything. He talks to his teammates, or his coach. That's it. He will mean mug an opponent after a good play, but doesn't seem to jaw at them even. Shuts up and does his job.

[tontoz]

I think Hart is a very good comp. He might have a bit more playmaking in him so I can see the Derek White comparison too.

I'm reluctant to use Jimmy Butler as a comp because he is a pretty unique guy who plays so much bigger than he is given his wingspan. Butler was also a really late bloomer - something you rarely see in wings.

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

[doclinkin]

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

Fair point. Which is a less useful player. Though I think Castle is a better playmaker. This team needs shooting though so, I dunno. I just like the way the kid plays. If he could shoot 40% he'd be in discussion as the consensus #1.

[pcbothwel]

I think Hart is a very good comp. He might have a bit more playmaking in him so I can see the Derek White comparison too.

I'm reluctant to use Jimmy Butler as a comp because he is a pretty unique guy who plays so much bigger than he is given his wingspan. Butler was also a really late bloomer - something you rarely see in wings.

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

You cant be serious. Derek White played 3 years at a DII school before transferring to Colorado and was 23 y/o before he ever stepped on an NBA court, while Castle will be 19 on opening night.

[tontoz]

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

You cant be serious. Derek White played 3 years at a DII school before transferring to Colorado and was 23 y/o before he ever stepped on an NBA court, while Castle will be 19 on opening night.

It is possible that Castle improves his 3 pt shot over time. Deni improved 10% from last year. However that is just hope. We could make that assumption for every player who struggles from 3. If you want to make player comparisons based on hope then have at it.

I just don't like his shot and said as much earlier in the season.

[nate33]

Castle certainly fits the Winger/Dawkins prototype. Just draft a competitive, heady athlete who has that "dawg" in him, even if his skills are not all that refined. Then bet on continued improvement.

[dobrojim]

Castle looked really good last night. His Ceiling archetype is Jimmy Butler. Connecter 2/3 with elite strength/balance. Plus athlete with mediocre wingspan, high level IQ/Competitiveness.
Low Outcome: Hart / Bruce Brown / Okoro
Likely: Deni / Caruso
High: Derek White / Deni
Ceiling: Butler

As with Sheppard and Topic, I have ZERO hesitation taking a guy like this in the 6-12 range of most drafts. It's just a letdown that we have to use a top 5 pick to get them this year.

Didn't watch the whole game but Clingan did not impress me last night.

[NatP4]

Castle was a blue chip 5 star recruit, ranked in the top 10. Joined a team loaded with good upperclassmen college players coming off of a championship. He’s the only freshman playing a significant role. His job was to come in and fit in. It’s impressive that he checked his ego and allowed less talented but more proven college players in Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton to make the plays, took on a glue guy role.

Look at the rest of the NCAA freshman. Edwards, Wagner, and Bradshaw were unplayable for Kentucky. Mgbako was awful. Williams, Walter, and Collier had mediocre seasons.

McCain was good, and is a good prospect, but also got to jump in and be exclusively used as a spot up shooter, didn’t have to be a playmaker at all as a point guard. Roach, Proctor, and Filipowski soak up all the usage and playmaking.

Of course, Holland and Buzelis went to the dumpster fire Ignite and chucked up a bunch of bricks and lost almost every single game.

A player like Sheppard is just better as a glue guy/elite role player.

[NatP4]

Castle certainly fits the Winger/Dawkins prototype. Just draft a competitive, heady athlete who has that "dawg" in him, even if his skills are not all that refined. Then bet on continued improvement.

Where does this line of thinking come from? If you look at OKC’s draft history while Dawkins was there, they consistently targeted productive players, and heavily scout the international guys.

Holmgren: great college numbers
Dieng: international
Jalen Williams: good college numbers
Jaylin Williams: great college numbers
Giddey: international+good numbers
Aaron Wiggins: great college numbers
Poku: international+great numbers
Krejci: international
Ferguson: international
Sabonis: great college numbers
Cam Payne: great college numbers
McGary: good college numbers

Adams, Aldrich, Reggie Jackson: all productive college players.

They almost NEVER take players that underproduce. In this draft, guys like Collier, Cody Williams, etc would be way off their radar IMO. Top of their list would be Sheppard and Topic. Made these same arguments last year about Coulibaly being their type, and they end up trading up specifically for him. If you have an intersection of good production+international guy playing in a solid pro league=Dawkins guy.

[nate33]

Castle certainly fits the Winger/Dawkins prototype. Just draft a competitive, heady athlete who has that "dawg" in him, even if his skills are not all that refined. Then bet on continued improvement.

Where does this line of thinking come from? If you look at OKC’s draft history while Dawkins was there, they consistently targeted productive players, and heavily scout the international guys.

Holmgren: great college numbers
Dieng: international
Jalen Williams: good college numbers
Jaylin Williams: great college numbers
Giddey: international+good numbers
Aaron Wiggins: great college numbers
Poku: international+great numbers
Krejci: international
Ferguson: international
Sabonis: great college numbers
Cam Payne: great college numbers
McGary: good college numbers

Adams, Aldrich, Reggie Jackson: all productive college players.

They almost NEVER take players that underproduce. In this draft, guys like Collier, Cody Williams, etc would be way off their radar IMO. Top of their list would be Sheppard and Topic. Made these same arguments last year about Coulibaly being their type, and they end up trading up specifically for him. If you have an intersection of good production+international guy playing in a solid pro league=Dawkins guy.

I think Castle's production is solid for a freshmen on an elite team - particularly if you value things like defense as production, even though it doesn't show up in the box score.

[DCZards]

I think Hart is a very good comp. He might have a bit more playmaking in him so I can see the Derek White comparison too.

I'm reluctant to use Jimmy Butler as a comp because he is a pretty unique guy who plays so much bigger than he is given his wingspan. Butler was also a really late bloomer - something you rarely see in wings.

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

No knock on White, but he was a 22 year old senior playing on a Colorado team that didn’t make the NCAA tournament. Castle is a 19 yr old freshman playing a significant role on a team that might win back-to-back NCAA championships.

[tontoz]

Cody Williams scored 12 ppg in only 28 minutes per game with a 62% TS. I would say that's pretty good from a freshman struggling with injuries.

INDIANAPOLIS -- A slew of injuries have kept Colorado freshman Cody Williams from fully displaying why he's a projected lottery pick for the upcoming NBA draft.

A fractured orbital bone, a wrist injury and an ankle issue have limited Williams,

[tontoz]

I think if the team could draft Derek White top 5 in this draft we would walk away happy.

Derrick White averaged 18 ppg in college and shot 40% from 3. Castle is averaging 11 ppg shooting 27% from 3. So maybe the right comp is a non-shooting Derrick White.

White was a 22 year old senior playing on a mediocre Colorado team. Castle is a 19 yr old playing on a team that might win back-to-back NCAA championships.

The fact that he is in such a strong team makes the 27% shooting from 3 even more concerning. It isn't like he is taking a lot of contested 3.

[NatP4]

I agree, but on the fence about whether or not he will be the guy for this FO.

Part of that is because I think Sheppard and Topic are REALLY the Dawkins type.

[NatP4]

Cody Williams scored 12 ppg in only 28 minutes per game with a 62% TS. I would say that's pretty good from a freshman struggling with injuries.

INDIANAPOLIS -- A slew of injuries have kept Colorado freshman Cody Williams from fully displaying why he's a projected lottery pick for the upcoming NBA draft.

A fractured orbital bone, a wrist injury and an ankle issue have limited Williams,

Really? He was borderline unplayable for half the year. Liability on defense and posted 3.8 rebounds 0.8 blocks 0.8 steals per 36 and 38 assists to 48 turnovers.

The only thing he did well was score efficiently, and even still, he only averaged 15 points per 36, and shot even less 3s than Castle.

That’s not really a commentary on Williams as a prospect, but do you think this FO would categorize that as good production?