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Cam Whitmore

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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#41 » by Kanyewest » Tue Jul 29, 2025 2:45 am

doclinkin wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Just for clarity, last year...

Cam's TS% was 54.9% -- well below average for a 4.
All 3 shooting percentages -- 2 pt, 3 pt, & FT -- were below average.
His rebounding rate was a bit below average.
His assist rate was well below average.
He committed more turnovers than average.
He had fewer blocks than average.
Cam’s age and years of experience were probably also well below average.


As was his height for a 4. Because he is not a 4. He's an outside shooting wing. A 2/3 combo forward. The majority of his possessions started above the three point line.

We fall back into the discussion of arbitrary position designations vs roles played. This commonly is where PIF's definition of what makes a good or bad player gets a bit wobbly. A player whose possessions are mostly outside will post lower rebound totals. Especially on offense. PIF prefers Win Score (not wins produced) which weights rebounds heavily, and offensive boards a notch heavier than most. Sometimes an outside shooting player contributes highly to wins since they force teams to chase them and abandon the boards on the interior.

Granted Cam is not a floor bending threat from outside. He's pretty much exactly average for a SF.Posting a career .357 from 3. Small forwards hit .354 from 3 last year. Not great on his behalf, but given his 75% from the FT line there is hope that his outside shooting improves. One would think, considering the great Justin Champagnie hit exactly .357 in his own age 20 year. Want to know something bizarre: in their rookie seasons both Champagnie and Cam Whitmore hit .538 from 2.

Point being Champagnie broke out when given consistent minutes with the Wizards (and in the G League under the training regimen we share with the GoGo). He was nearly out of the league when we refurbished him. Here the team has an opportunity to do the same with a talented player in Cam Whitmore. I'm not the greatest fan of Whitmore's game but I do think he will play more minutes this year than JC does. Reasonably so. We are not yet in the meritocracy portion of team building. We are in the potential and upside portion. Cam has the potential to be a foul magnet on offense given his play style and athleticism. Highlights sell seats, buzz influences referreeing, star power draws attention. We need players who can score through contact and get fans standing up out of their seats. IF we can turn around the narrative of a player like Whitmore, we can continue to build the rep as a team that has a good training program and is headed in the right direction. We saw how that narrative has begun to influence players like Ace Bailey in the draft. Hell that growing narrative actually landed us Whitmore on the cheap, according to the story put out by Houston.

I like JC. After this year if he manages to seize a starting role or siphons minutes from any of the other forwards, cool. I just don't see him doing so this year. I think they will invest more heavily in building value of the younger players whose production may be lesser than their potential. Cam, sure, and also George, Bilal, etc. I think he will start fewer games, play less minutes than all of these guys. Just my read of the situation.


Also to add that Cam TS% of 55 were above any of the Wizards' players including Sarr, Carrington, George, Bilal, and AJ Johnson. Granted his team circumstances were different (ie not having to play with Kuzma is an advantage) but will be interesting to see how he does in a Wizards uniform along with everyone else.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#42 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 29, 2025 12:47 pm

doclinkin wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Just for clarity, last year...

Cam's TS% was 54.9% -- well below average for a 4.
All 3 shooting percentages -- 2 pt, 3 pt, & FT -- were below average.
His rebounding rate was a bit below average.
His assist rate was well below average.
He committed more turnovers than average.
He had fewer blocks than average.
Cam’s age and years of experience were probably also well below average.


As was his height for a 4. Because he is not a 4. He's an outside shooting wing. A 2/3 combo forward. The majority of his possessions started above the three point line.

We fall back into the discussion of arbitrary position designations vs roles played. This commonly is where PIF's definition of what makes a good or bad player gets a bit wobbly. A player whose possessions are mostly outside will post lower rebound totals. Especially on offense. PIF prefers Win Score (not wins produced) which weights rebounds heavily, and offensive boards a notch heavier than most. Sometimes an outside shooting player contributes highly to wins since they force teams to chase them and abandon the boards on the interior.

Granted Cam is not a floor bending threat from outside. He's pretty much exactly average for a SF.Posting a career .357 from 3. Small forwards hit .354 from 3 last year. Not great on his behalf, but given his 75% from the FT line there is hope that his outside shooting improves. One would think, considering the great Justin Champagnie hit exactly .357 in his own age 20 year. Want to know something bizarre: in their rookie seasons both Champagnie and Cam Whitmore hit .538 from 2.

Point being Champagnie broke out when given consistent minutes with the Wizards (and in the G League under the training regimen we share with the GoGo). He was nearly out of the league when we refurbished him. Here the team has an opportunity to do the same with a talented player in Cam Whitmore. I'm not the greatest fan of Whitmore's game but I do think he will play more minutes this year than JC does. Reasonably so. We are not yet in the meritocracy portion of team building. We are in the potential and upside portion. Cam has the potential to be a foul magnet on offense given his play style and athleticism. Highlights sell seats, buzz influences referreeing, star power draws attention. We need players who can score through contact and get fans standing up out of their seats. IF we can turn around the narrative of a player like Whitmore, we can continue to build the rep as a team that has a good training program and is headed in the right direction. We saw how that narrative has begun to influence players like Ace Bailey in the draft. Hell that growing narrative actually landed us Whitmore on the cheap, according to the story put out by Houston.

I like JC. After this year if he manages to seize a starting role or siphons minutes from any of the other forwards, cool. I just don't see him doing so this year. I think they will invest more heavily in building value of the younger players whose production may be lesser than their potential. Cam, sure, and also George, Bilal, etc. I think he will start fewer games, play less minutes than all of these guys. Just my read of the situation.


For what it's worth, 20-year-old Whitmore had a superior WS/48 and BPM than 23-year-old Champagnie. And Champagnie only edged him in PER 15.7 to 15.5. Whitmore has a low turnover percentage and a low foul rate, giving him a better-than-you-might-think advanced stats profile. It's true that he is a bit of a chucker, but he doesn't do much else to hurt his team.

Also, we can't forget that Whitmore was a youngster trying to show off his intriguing scoring potential and got a little too carried away in the limited opportunities that he had in Houston. With some assurance of regular playing time, it's not at all difficult to envision him cutting back on the high degree of difficulty shots and settling in as an efficient scorer at slightly less usage. His usage percentage in Houston was 23.9%. Champagnie is efficient because his usage is a rather anemic 15.6%.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#43 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 29, 2025 1:09 pm

This is a pointless debate for a multitude of reasons, & I'm not engaging in details of it. But, in every single way, Champagnie was a zillion times better than Cam.

Let's not return to the sterile debate in which you, nate, attempted to demonstrate that Kyle Kuzma was (if I recall correctly) the 65th best player in the NBA by citing a mystery-meat stat invented by who knows whom.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#44 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 29, 2025 1:44 pm

payitforward wrote:Let's not return to the sterile debate in which you, nate, attempted to demonstrate that Kyle Kuzma was (if I recall correctly) the 65th best player in the NBA by citing a mystery-meat stat invented by who knows whom.

Yeah, let's not return to that sterile debate because you will again look foolish. I can break out the wins produced chart right now and we can all laugh at the results. Josh Giddey and Payton Pritchard over Luka Doncic and Steph Curry; Brandon Clark and Tari Eason over Jayson Tatum and Jalen Williams; Walter Kessler over Anthony Davis.

I also challenge you to quote where I said Kuzma was the 65th best player in the league. I can find no such declaration. I did say that Kuzma, during his best stretch of play while alongside Beal and Porzingis, was probably somewhere in the 61st to 90th range of players, being the 3rd best player on a modestly below average team. I pointed out EPM had him ranked 74st, and that was arguably 9 spots too high as one would expect the 3rd best player on the 23rd best team is more likely to be ranked about 83rd.

Kuzma was averaging 22, 7 and 4 that year, albeit at a .544 TS%. Ranking him as somewhere in the 70-85 range is way more supportable than Payton Pritchard over Luka and Curry!
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#45 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 29, 2025 2:25 pm

Here's a simple per-36-minute stat roll-up I use to summarize player performance & compare guys at the same position: add the player's points + rebounds + steals + ½ assists & ½ blocks. From the resulting number, subtract FGAs, ½ FTAs, turnovers & ½ of fouls.

Compare the resulting number for 2 players’ who play the same position, & you have a relative metric of the 2 guys' performance. Note: this stuff is not magic. But it does translate into team results with great accuracy.

With GS last season, for example, Jimmy Butler was at 13.15. Shai was at 15.15 (especially impressive for a guard!).

Now to look at our two guys using this tool.

Where was Justin?
Spoiler:
12

How about Cam?
Spoiler:
7.05
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#46 » by AFM » Tue Jul 29, 2025 2:31 pm

The only metric that matters is ENGINE aka WIZD-PER/48.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#47 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 29, 2025 2:40 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Let's not return to the sterile debate in which you, nate, attempted to demonstrate that Kyle Kuzma was (if I recall correctly) the 65th best player in the NBA by citing a mystery-meat stat invented by who knows whom.

Yeah, let's not return to that sterile debate because you will again look foolish. I can break out the wins produced chart right now and we can all laugh at the results. Josh Giddey and Payton Pritchard over Luka Doncic and Steph Curry; Brandon Clark and Tari Eason over Jayson Tatum and Jalen Williams; Walter Kessler over Anthony Davis.

I also challenge you to quote where I said Kuzma was the 65th best player in the league. I can find no such declaration. I did say that Kuzma, during his best stretch of play while alongside Beal and Porzingis, was probably somewhere in the 61st to 90th range of players, being the 3rd best player on a modestly below average team. I pointed out EPM had him ranked 74st, and that was arguably 9 spots too high as one would expect the 3rd best player on the 23rd best team is more likely to be ranked about 83rd.

Kuzma was averaging 22, 7 and 4 that year, albeit at a .544 TS%. Ranking him as somewhere in the 70-85 range is way more supportable than Payton Pritchard over Luka and Curry!

Apologies, nate -- it was stupid of me to bring up a subject that I went on to say I didn't want to bring up. It's rhetorically unfair.

Moreover, the whole subject of these roll-ups & (so-called) advanced stat metrics is, in the end, dull & pointless. It's kinda obvious that players on teams that win a lot of games are better than those on teams that win few games. Duh.

The only thing motivating me in this particular case is what I see as Champagnie's importance to a rebuilding team like ours -- he's young, cheap, under control, & productive.

But, even in that case, there's little reason to use him in a comparison with Cam Whitmore. We all know that Cam hasn't yet lived up to his billing. We all know he has a lot of gifts & potential, & we all want him to succeed big time.

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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#48 » by DCZards » Tue Jul 29, 2025 3:44 pm

payitforward wrote:The only thing motivating me in this particular case is what I see as Champagnie's importance to a rebuilding team like ours -- he's young, cheap, under control, & productive.

But, even in that case, there's little reason to use him in a comparison with Cam Whitmore. We all know that Cam hasn't yet lived up to his billing. We all know he has a lot of gifts & potential, & we all want him to succeed big time.
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Hear, hear! I think you’ll get mad agreement that Champagnie is a jewel and real find for all of the reasons you point out. As for Cam, I’m hoping that now that he’s in DC he’ll get the opportunity to live up to his billing.

Justin has taken advantage of the opportunity given him by the Zards…maybe Cam does the same.

Comparing them at this point in their respective careers is apples and oranges.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#49 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 29, 2025 3:53 pm

Right you are!

Main thing is to give Cam Whitmore the coaching and minutes he needs to flourish. If he does, then you, I, nate, & everyone else will be happy!
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#50 » by I_Like_Dirt » Tue Jul 29, 2025 8:16 pm

nate33 wrote:
For what it's worth, 20-year-old Whitmore had a superior WS/48 and BPM than 23-year-old Champagnie. And Champagnie only edged him in PER 15.7 to 15.5. Whitmore has a low turnover percentage and a low foul rate, giving him a better-than-you-might-think advanced stats profile. It's true that he is a bit of a chucker, but he doesn't do much else to hurt his team.

Also, we can't forget that Whitmore was a youngster trying to show off his intriguing scoring potential and got a little too carried away in the limited opportunities that he had in Houston. With some assurance of regular playing time, it's not at all difficult to envision him cutting back on the high degree of difficulty shots and settling in as an efficient scorer at slightly less usage. His usage percentage in Houston was 23.9%. Champagnie is efficient because his usage is a rather anemic 15.6%.


The shots themselves are fine, really. His usage on his efficiency means tougher shots are likely going to be a part of his profile going forward because someone needs to take them and they aren't individually efficient shots in and of themselves. Houston played guys like VanVleet, Green and Dillon Brooks. They were clearly okay with their guards taking tougher shots. And while they were clearly a defense-first team and poor offensive team by playoff standards, they were still in the top half of league offenses last season, if somewhat on the back of their defense getting them stops to push on.

The reason Cam's fell out of favour on Houston has more to do with stuff that doesn't show up in the box score along with them having a lot of kids and having to choose which ones to prioritize. To that end I feel like more fouls wouldn't inherently be a bad thing for him as it would mean he was getting to his spots better even if he wasn't ready once there or the play had already broken down or whatever. The only rotation player who fouled less for the Rockets last season was Jalen Green and he isn't exactly a defensive star either. It was the rest of the Rockets that all fouled a fair bit more than those two that held together a very good defense. I really wish we had NBA team quality of defensive stats publicly available.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#51 » by AFM » Fri Aug 1, 2025 2:36 pm

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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#52 » by nate33 » Fri Aug 1, 2025 2:51 pm



I'm struck by how short he looks. The guy is so stocky and muscular that he looks like a normal 6'-1" guy even though he is 6'-6" barefoot.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#53 » by nate33 » Fri Aug 1, 2025 3:14 pm

Here's a pretty even-handed breakdown of Whitmore's NBA journey, exploring the prevailing narrative of him being a talented, but tunnel-visioned, empty-stats player.

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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#54 » by payitforward » Fri Aug 1, 2025 3:17 pm

No kidding! He must look mammoth in person.

Really nice to see him relating so comfortably with kids. Like the guy already! Go Cam!!!
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#55 » by Kanyewest » Fri Aug 1, 2025 10:56 pm

nate33 wrote:Here's a pretty even-handed breakdown of Whitmore's NBA journey, exploring the prevailing narrative of him being a talented, but tunnel-visioned, empty-stats player.



Funny thing about Kyle Neptune talking about him is that now Neptune is no longer the coach at Villanova. I wonder how much of Whitmore's trajectory would have changed had he played under Jay Wright, which was the coach he intended to play for. Maybe he mentally can't handle the defensive concepts but I believe the desire was there for him to round out his game, at least that's why I imagine he chose Villanova over some other schools.

Whitmore is shooting more per 100 possessions in the NBA than in college per 100 possessions (25 fga vs 22). Hopefully Brian Keefe and the Wizards staff can help coach some of his weaknesses.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#56 » by payitforward » Sat Aug 2, 2025 4:11 pm

One thing to keep in mind: Cam wasn't very good his first two years, but he wasn't awful either! He wasn't "wash out of the league" bad.

Nor do I see a reason to think he can't handle the mental side of defense. He seems perfectly lucid and relaxed in conversation.

He just has to understand what's at stake (i.e. his second contract), accept coaching, & give effort. If he does those things, he'll be just fine.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#57 » by payitforward » Sat Aug 2, 2025 4:19 pm

The downside for Cam is Gerald Green. Never any good but played 12 seasons inn the league.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#58 » by AFM » Sat Aug 2, 2025 4:39 pm

None of our young guys were "good" -- I have similar expectations for Whitmore as I do our first rounders
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#59 » by closg00 » Sat Aug 2, 2025 5:24 pm

nate33 wrote:Here's a pretty even-handed breakdown of Whitmore's NBA journey, exploring the prevailing narrative of him being a talented, but tunnel-visioned, empty-stats player.



I am worried about him being the SF/PF version of Poole, a good coach may be able to deploy him in situations that benefits the team, and help us get wins in the future.
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Re: Cam Whitmore 

Post#60 » by payitforward » Sat Aug 2, 2025 7:44 pm

AFM wrote:None of our young guys were "good" -- I have similar expectations for Whitmore as I do our first rounders

No. Our guys were BAD -- straight up no question about it.

Cam was nothing like as bad as any of Bilal, Sarr, Bub or Ky.

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