Short Term trades versus Long Term trades

[theBigLip]

If you're Joe Dumars, and you faithfully read RealGM everyday, you're head is spinning, wondering if you have to trade everyone after any single game (usually a loss).

Do the Pistons need to make any trades? If so, what would be accomplished. It is worth discussing short term versus long term trade prospects.

Short Term
These trades would try to get us a championship this year. Screw the cap, screw our prospects, let's get another banner in the Palace! When you look at our roster, I really don't see a lot of holes. Maybe a more prolific scorer off the bench, maybe another legit big guy that can play the post. Would an Amir Johnson for Jeff Foster help us this year? Probably. Will this put us over the top, probably not. Maybe get an inexpensive Bonzi Wells for Flip and some picks. Bottom line, I don't expect much to happen this year in terms of trades. Nazr was a nice surprise, but I think Joe believes this team can win it all, and is certainly willing to give them a shot.

Long Term
Assuming I am correct for the Short Term and that we keep our core and make a run with the current roster, the success of that run determines what happens next year. If we make it to the NBA Finals, especially if we win it all, I don't think you touch the core - you keep them together as long as they are champs. But if we get beat in the conference finals again, we have to start looking at making long term changes. Dice and Wallace are 33, Billups 31, and Hamilton will be 30 in a few more weeks.

Long Term Core
Stuckey
Affalo
Prince
Maxiell
Johnson (yes, he will be pushed to play center)

Trade Value
Wallace will have a ton of value, an almost 14mil expiring deal and he still has some talent. Throw in Dice's contract and that's almost 21mil for someone's short term fix for a front line. Rip would just have a couple of years left at around 11mil each, and would still have some value. Chauncey would be the hardest to move even though he is arguably our best player. 3 more years (with a team option fourth year), it would have to be the right team that is a PG away from a championship.

Each of the older core would ideally be moved for someone younger, or something that creates capspace. There are numerous trade possibilities, and they are fun to play around with, but probably won't happen. We would need to focus on getting a better scoring SG than Affalo, and probably a younger center so that Max, Amir and the new guy can share the frontline minutes.

Bottomline, I just don't see Joe making a huge change - short term or long term. Joe likes the guys he brings in, they are solid team players, and I think he wants to keep that mentality around. The best way to do that is to slowly change, so don't expect much change to our core in the next few years.

[Train Wreck]

I was just thinking about this earlier today.... Our team is set up to be good for a long time but I'm not sure if they are able to win a title with this group without making a big change.

By the time that Stuckey, Johnson, along with Maxiell and Afflalo develop to the point that we need them to be at, Our core will be declining enough that we will still be a good team but not great...

I'm OK with but it definitly isn't the ideal situation...To win a championship, a big change is probably necessary... Prince, Amir, and expiring's for an upgrade at SF? Maxiel, Amir, and expiring's for a PF? I don't know who could be available...

What I do know is that we have some young talent and a lot of expiring deals... We have the pieces to do something big and we absolutely should give it a shot... If we don't, and we fall short of making the NBA finals again, that we absolutely have to move on this summer.... Every single one of our starters will have good trade value this summer

[HeroicKennedy]

When it comes to short term, it all depends on how short the gains will be. As in, does the window mean this year or bust, or does it mean we have 2-3 years to get a championship?

If it's the former, I'll pass. If it's the latter, I'll glady accept. 2-3 years is a long time, and you can replace those young prospects you may have lost through other trades, draft picks, etc. It's just like Rasheed Wallace. When we resigned, he was a short term solution (being 30 at the time) but we've had enough time to bring in a couple young prospects to possibly replace him (Maxiell, Johnson, Samb). If something came along to have Marion (nearly 30 himself) to replace Prince and it included some draft picks or prospects (Stuckey, Johnson, Afflalo, Samb, Maxiell) I'd consider it because Marion could have another 3-4 good years left in him to keep us a title contender.

The ideal situation would be to trade from something that benefits both the immediate and the future. Something like swapping Prince or Hamilton out for Andre Iguodala, someone how can immediately be an impact while young enough to still improve and getter better 5-7 years down the road.

[theBigLip]

When it comes to short term, it all depends on how short the gains will be. As in, does the window mean this year or bust, or does it mean we have 2-3 years to get a championship?

If it's the former, I'll pass. If it's the latter, I'll glady accept. 2-3 years is a long time, and you can replace those young prospects you may have lost through other trades, draft picks, etc. It's just like Rasheed Wallace. When we resigned, he was a short term solution (being 30 at the time) but we've had enough time to bring in a couple young prospects to possibly replace him (Maxiell, Johnson, Samb). If something came along to have Marion (nearly 30 himself) to replace Prince and it included some draft picks or prospects (Stuckey, Johnson, Afflalo, Samb, Maxiell) I'd consider it because Marion could have another 3-4 good years left in him to keep us a title contender.

The ideal situation would be to trade from something that benefits both the immediate and the future. Something like swapping Prince or Hamilton out for Andre Iguodala, someone how can immediately be an impact while young enough to still improve and getter better 5-7 years down the road.

Good points. I guess if we add Amir and possibly a first rounder to any of our starters, does it bring us an upgrade?

Sheed + Amir = Yao? Amare? Dwight?
Tay + Amir + 1st rounder = Melo? RJ? TMac?
RIP + Amir + 1sr rounder = Kobe?
Chauncey + Amir = Williams or CP3 and filler?

[HeroicKennedy]

-= original quote snipped =-



Good points. I guess if we add Amir and possibly a first rounder to any of our starters, does it bring us an upgrade?

Sheed + Amir = Yao? Amare? Dwight?
Tay + Amir + 1st rounder = Melo? RJ? TMac?
RIP + Amir + 1sr rounder = Kobe?
Chauncey + Amir = Williams or CP3 and filler?

The problem is that all the teams you've listed are playing reasonably well. It's more realistic to fleece a mediocre or crappy team like Miami, Charlotte, Chicago, Philadelphia.

[theBigLip]

Chicago - Deng?
Miami - DWade?
Charlotte - Wallace?
Philly - AI2?

[HeroicKennedy]

Chicago - Deng?
Miami - DWade?
Charlotte - Wallace?
Philly - AI2?

Exactly. Frustrated teams not going anywhere will have frustrated players that want out. We can provide them with a winning team PLUS give the former team some decent pieces to build around.

I'd love to get Deng, Wallace, or AI 2.0, but I wouldn't count on it.

[roc]

Good points. I guess if we add Amir and possibly a first rounder to any of our starters, does it bring us an upgrade?

Sheed + Amir = Yao? Amare? Dwight?
Tay + Amir + 1st rounder = Melo? RJ? TMac?
RIP + Amir + 1sr rounder = Kobe?
Chauncey + Amir = Williams or CP3 and filler?

The bolded are the only ones remotely in the ballpark IMO.

I do think we have possibilities, wonder what Joe D will end up doing, hmmmm.

I have a 4 way rolling around in my skull that nets us the Williams (Marvin and Sean) but costs us Tay and Dice (and adds Speedy's contract). Then we bring in one of the FA bigs (Birdman, PJ, Davis, Webber) as insurance. Our future would look pretty bright as would the present but might not get us over the hump for a year or two (if at all, nothing is 'for sure').

http://www.realgm.com/src_checktrade.php?tradeid=4399103

I could see Tay and Maxiell or Amir for Marion being a possible Joe D deal but then again Marion makes a good chunk of change.

I think the most likely near future deal will be Murray and/or Brezec for a 2nd rounder(s) or just waived and a different player nabbed off waivers or FA.

Iggy or Crash would be a great aquisition for Tay/+.

[bstein14]

Philly trading AI would make a lot of sense for so many reasons.

They are young and in rebuild mode, and AI turned down a big deal this past offseason.

Philly has an opportunity to get way under the cap, but much of that will have to be used to resign AI.

Let's take a look at two scenarios
Scenario 1: Keep AI and resign him to a 5 year deal starting at almost $10 million. This gives Philly just more than the MLE to offer another player. Philly ends up with the #10-11 pick.

Scenario 2: Trade AI and Andre Miller for young talent, draft picks, and expiring deals.... Let the young guys play and develop and end up with a top 3 pick. Go into the off season with a ton of cap room, extra draft picks, better draft picks.

[HeroicKennedy]

Philly trading AI would make a lot of sense for so many reasons.

They are young and in rebuild mode, and AI turned down a big deal this past offseason.

Philly has an opportunity to get way under the cap, but much of that will have to be used to resign AI.

Let's take a look at two scenarios
Scenario 1: Keep AI and resign him to a 5 year deal starting at almost $10 million. This gives Philly just more than the MLE to offer another player. Philly ends up with the #10-11 pick.

Scenario 2: Trade AI and Andre Miller for young talent, draft picks, and expiring deals.... Let the young guys play and develop and end up with a top 3 pick. Go into the off season with a ton of cap room, extra draft picks, better draft picks.

Exactly. If we send them some expiring, some draft picks, and Amir (and possible a starter like Prince or Hamilton), we could get AI easily. Imagine down the road a back-court of AI and Stuckey.

[roc]

Scenario 2: Trade AI and Andre Miller for young talent, draft picks, and expiring deals.... Let the young guys play and develop and end up with a top 3 pick. Go into the off season with a ton of cap room, extra draft picks, better draft picks.

I would add Green, Evans, and possibly Daly to that list.

Prince/Brezec/Murray/Hunter(and cash to waive him)/Maxiell/08 1st for Iggy/Daly/Evans???

That nets Philly a still young vet with a ton of playoff experience and great team player in Tay, expirings in Brezec/Murray/Hunter a good young PF in Maxiell, and a 1st. They free up a good chunk of change to play with in the FA and get young inexpensive talent back.

We take on a ton of salary (and have to sign Iggy) but should have a damn good roster. We would have to move Evans next season to free up some money.

Billups/Stuckey/Hunter
Rip/Stuckey/Afflalo
Iggy/Hayes/Herrmann
Dice/Evans/Amir
Sheed/Daly/Samb/???

Not too shabby but very unlikely, it is fun to concoct scenarios though.

[mattyj]

^^^ I like that one

I know Dalembert has 0 Bball IQ, but hes a good shot blocker and finished on the break...Evans does the dirty work (Rebounding) and Iggy is well, Iggy and a lot better than Tay

Shame to lose Maxiell


Edit : (Oooh that was my 1000th Post )

[#1stunna]

The problem with iggy is money. He thinks he is a 5 year 85mil type player . Hes young & hasn't had his "payday" yet so you know hes probably all about the green & not loyalty. Theres always a gm out there that will overpay for a player. Especially one like ai.

If davidson ever agreed to go over the cap... it's possibly with these expirings, draft picks, & a starter to bring in a top 5-20 type player. History tells us though thats not possible. Hopefully one day davidson proves me wrong.