RealGM Top 100 List #9 -- Post Shot Clock Only (No Mikan)

[Doctor MJ]

Huh, well I guess I won't have to decide about Duncan vs Garnett in this project.

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

You want to know Hakeem vs Kobe, well how about Garnett vs Kobe? Back in '04-05, people would have gone for Garnett easily. What changed after that?

Well, yes, Kobe did reach some new heights, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how much differently they'd rate Garnett now if Minny didn't drop off the face of the earth. I fully expect that had Garnett kept more with the prominence he'd previously had, we'd at least have a very tough debate between Kobe & KG.

I personally have come to the conclusion that Garnett just got screwed relative to Kobe in those years and that if I truly give Garnett the peak nod, it doesn't make sense to pick Kobe over him here, but I don't expect most to agree with me.

This comes back to Hakeem though as he's a super-quick big like Garnett, who is much better at blocking shots, stealing balls, and scoring the ball. I have Hakeem at #6 all-time, and I don't even know if that's high enough. We've truly never seen anyone like him.

Nomination: Dirk Nowitzki

My choice for Dirk over Robinson is a very, very close one. Suffice to say if Robinson had more longevity, I'd probably give him the nod.

Either of these guys vs Mikan? Well, let me state up front that I'm a believer in judging guys by adjusting for how tough the era was. I don't think there's really been a huge change on that front in the last 40-45 years, but for the first 20 years of the BAA/NBA, there was absolutely massive changes.

The biggest thing is probably just the skill differential that comes from having a league full of guys who grew up not realizing they'd be able to be pro basketball players. (And make no mistake, there was a huge improvement in skill. They shot less than 28% from the field in '46-47) However, I don't want to knock guys simply for lack of training. If guys were talented enough then to dominate to day, then I feel the need to completely adjust for the training.

I don't think that's the whole story though. Simply put, not knowing that there's going to be a career in pro basketball means that a lot of talented people, simply never play in the pro basketball league. So if a true all-time great talent was there, I would expect him to dominate like nobody's business.

Did Mikan do that? Well, certainly not like someone like Wilt Chamberlain did. I'm perfectly willing to overlook career longevity in a pioneer if he simply walks away from the game at his peak (a la Otto Graham), however Mikan's numbers really start going down in the years before his retirement at a time where you'd expect him to be hitting his prime.

In '51-52, Mikan was 27 and scored 23 PPG on a FG% of 38.5. By comparison, Paul Arizin was scoring 25 PPG on 44.8% FG. So Mikan was already much less productive by obvious metrics than earlier years, and had been easily surpass as a scoring threat.

Of course, Mikan still won titles after that, and I'm on record with Russell as my GOAT, so obviously I believe someone can have ridiculous impact without putting up big numbers. I can't claim certainty that Mikan wasn't like Russell, but I'm skeptical. Not skeptical about him being a strong defender, but skeptical about him being so amazingly good at defense that he'd have been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else today.

In the end where I've been with Mikan for quite a while is seeing him as a guy who I just can't see drafting over more modern complete big men. Guys like Robinson, Ewing, or Gilmore, I just don't see Mikan really being in a debate with them.

Where I start really looking at Mikan is when guys like Hayes, Reed, Thurmond, and Unseld enter into the picture. Guys who have something clearly lacking, I wonder whether an all around guy like Mikan would end up surpassing.

[therealbig3]

Huh, well I guess I won't have to decide about Duncan vs Garnett in this project.

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

You want to know Hakeem vs Kobe, well how about Garnett vs Kobe? Back in '04-05, people would have gone for Garnett easily. What changed after that?

Well, yes, Kobe did reach some new heights, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how much differently they'd rate Garnett now if Minny didn't drop off the face of the earth. I fully expect that had Garnett kept more with the prominence he'd previously had, we'd at least have a very tough debate between Kobe & KG.

I personally have come to the conclusion that Garnett just got screwed relative to Kobe in those years and that if I truly give Garnett the peak nod, it doesn't make sense to pick Kobe over him here, but I don't expect most to agree with me.

This comes back to Hakeem though as he's a super-quick big like Garnett, who is much better at blocking shots, stealing balls, and scoring the ball. I have Hakeem at #6 all-time, and I don't even know if that's high enough. We've truly never seen anyone like him.

Nomination: Dirk Nowitzki

My choice for Dirk over Robinson is a very, very close one. Suffice to say if Robinson had more longevity, I'd probably give him the nod.

Either of these guys vs Mikan? Well, let me state up front that I'm a believer in judging guys by adjusting for how tough the era was. I don't think there's really been a huge change on that front in the last 40-45 years, but for the first 20 years of the BAA/NBA, there was absolutely massive changes.

The biggest thing is probably just the skill differential that comes from having a league full of guys who grew up not realizing they'd be able to be pro basketball players. (And make no mistake, there was a huge improvement in skill. They shot less than 28% from the field in '46-47) However, I don't want to knock guys simply for lack of training. If guys were talented enough then to dominate to day, then I feel the need to completely adjust for the training.

I don't think that's the whole story though. Simply put, not knowing that there's going to be a career in pro basketball means that a lot of talented people, simply never play in the pro basketball league. So if a true all-time great talent was there, I would expect him to dominate like nobody's business.

Did Mikan do that? Well, certainly not like someone like Wilt Chamberlain did. I'm perfectly willing to overlook career longevity in a pioneer if he simply walks away from the game at his peak (a la Otto Graham), however Mikan's numbers really start going down in the years before his retirement at a time where you'd expect him to be hitting his prime.

In '51-52, Mikan was 27 and scored 23 PPG on a FG% of 38.5. By comparison, Paul Arizin was scoring 25 PPG on 44.8% FG. So Mikan was already much less productive by obvious metrics than earlier years, and had been easily surpass as a scoring threat.

Of course, Mikan still won titles after that, and I'm on record with Russell as my GOAT, so obviously I believe someone can have ridiculous impact without putting up big numbers. I can't claim certainty that Mikan wasn't like Russell, but I'm skeptical. Not skeptical about him being a strong defender, but skeptical about him being so amazingly good at defense that he'd have been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else today.

In the end where I've been with Mikan for quite a while is seeing him as a guy who I just can't see drafting over more modern complete big men. Guys like Robinson, Ewing, or Gilmore, I just don't see Mikan really being in a debate with them.

Where I start really looking at Mikan is when guys like Hayes, Reed, Thurmond, and Unseld enter into the picture. Guys who have something clearly lacking, I wonder whether an all around guy like Mikan would end up surpassing.

If you don't mind, can you explain what your rationale is for Hakeem over Wilt, because I'm pretty sure that's how you rank them, correct? I'm just curious why Hakeem isn't more considered over Wilt, and I'm curious to see your reasoning...I've begun to ask myself whether or not Hakeem should be ahead of Wilt recently, as I've had Wilt ahead of Hakeem ever since I've made an all time list.

[fatal9]

Really hope Moses doesn't get overrated in this project. One of the guys whose impact is not as great as his stats would indicate.

For one thing, he is not like the other elite big men where you can build the offense around his his post game, he wasn't a good enough passer to keep everyone involved. You need to surround a player like him with players who individually can get their own, not role players who can shoot (like you could around Hakeem/Shaq/D-Rob/KAJ etc). When he was in the paint he just had tunnel vision, the ball wasn't coming out but to his credit he was an absolute horse on the offensive glass. And like other great big men, he didn't have the same defensive impact as them, monster on the offensive boards but stats inflated from rebounding own misses. Says a lot about a center when his teams are literally some of the worst defensively in the league (last in '78, second last in '79, 18th out of 22 in '80, 16 out of 22 in '81 and '82), especially when he had decent defensive players/enforcers around him (Robert Reid, Billy Paultz etc). He won a ring, but he joined a team which the year before had gone 58-24, gotten to game 6 of the finals with Caldwell Jones in his place, and had been serious contenders for three consecutive years. I don't know, from everything I've seen of him, from watching his games, from looking at his career year by year, he just comes out very overrated to me (usually ranked at 11-12 on most lists).

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

Nominate: Dirk Nowitzki


Hakeem is clearly ahead of the rest of the field for me. At his peak, he's as good as the number one guy on this list (and superior to the number eight guy, but I digress).

I do feel as though certain players have been a little bit underrated so far, namely Julius Erving and Kobe Bryant. But that's for the next thread...

The nomination was actually pretty easy for me. Dirk is a strength, a playoff Constant, something a team can go to the well with in the playoffs. David Robinson wasn't a Constant. He consistently underperformed as an individual in the playoffs.

I'm going to try and push for Rick Barry in this project. He deserves to go above John Havlicek imo.

As for Mikan...I honestly wouldn't mind using 1954 as a cutoff. It's the shot clock, man...the shot clock. I'm super liberal when it comes to players, especially great ones, transcending eras and being great no matter what, but if you played in a time where the score could be 19-18 because of legal stalling tactics, I'm not sure I can give you the benefit of the doubt that you'd excel at real NBA basketball. I believe that for most of Mikan's career, entire racial groups were disallowed from playing in the same league.

I know a lot about Mikan, but I never know how to rate the guy. I don't know how to compare him to other players. Career-wise and relative to era, he was Wilt and Russell combined- probably the GOAT.

But I really don't think he was playing Duncan's basketball or Bird's basketball or Kareem's basketball or Russell's basketball...

[mysticbb]

Really hope Moses doesn't get overrated in this project. One of the guys whose impact is not as great as his stats would indicate.

Is it possible for you to back that up with some hard facts? Maybe even in comparison to Karl Malone, Julius Erving, Kobe Bryant? Would be nice to see a comparison here in terms of impact for those players.

[An Unbiased Fan]

You want to know Hakeem vs Kobe, well how about Garnett vs Kobe? Back in '04-05, people would have gone for Garnett easily. What changed after that?

Well, yes, Kobe did reach some new heights, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how much differently they'd rate Garnett now if Minny didn't drop off the face of the earth. I fully expect that had Garnett kept more with the prominence he'd previously had, we'd at least have a very tough debate between Kobe & KG.

I personally have come to the conclusion that Garnett just got screwed relative to Kobe in those years and that if I truly give Garnett the peak nod, it doesn't make sense to pick Kobe over him here, but I don't expect most to agree with me.

The fact that Minny dropped off the face of the Earth for 3 straight years in KG's prime, kinda says it all though, doesn't it.

Both Kobe & KG had crap supporting casts, in the same conference, during the same time frame. So we don't even have to specualte on impact with this one. Kobe led LA to the playoffs twice, while Minny devoloved into a -3.16 SRS mess. The one year Kobe didn't make it, he & Odom were hurt, and his coach left mid-season.

I'm not sure how KG got screwed here. One guy was having historic seasons, not seen since Wilt, and the other was spending his Prime in the lottery. I don't even have KG over Barkley, DRob, or Dirk for that matter.

[ElGee]

I was going to ignore pre-shot clock anyway, so I'm down.

As for Havlicek, I have him projected outside the top 40...although it's possible he finds his way into the 30s. He's amazingly overrated to me.

Moses Malone is also someone I find heavily overrated, and I will continue to make heavy arguments against him, as we are about 10 spots away from him getting a vote for me...

To me, the number 10 spot is Karl Malone's to lose. I've made some pretty detailed arguments in prior threads, and I have really yet to a single one rebutted. The only explanation I can surmise is Malone is being subject to a massive Losing Bias, and we need to instead focus on how he played. I believe, after all, that is the purpose of this project.

Compare his career to all the contenders for the 10th spot -- Dr J, KG, Kobe, maybe Oscar, maybe LeBron, West if you go that route -- and Malone's peak only falls short of LBJ's, KG's and J's basically, as he's comparable to the others. But you add in the number of MVP-level seasons the guy had and it just blows everyone out of the water. Literally. I'd say Kobe Bryant needs at least 2 more peak years to come close to Malone...that's the type of separation Malone has in longevity over his career.

(Maybe others have some different criteria -- who knows. If I had a complaint about the votes themselves it would be that some of the people winning close races (Wilt, Duncan) have one-liner votes without explanation. So, it makes the results a little bizarre when most of the arguments in a thread go in the other direction of the vote. Did Duncan just beat Hakeem because has 4 titles? Yeah, I think he did...)

[Doctor MJ]

If you don't mind, can you explain what your rationale is for Hakeem over Wilt, because I'm pretty sure that's how you rank them, correct? I'm just curious why Hakeem isn't more considered over Wilt, and I'm curious to see your reasoning...I've begun to ask myself whether or not Hakeem should be ahead of Wilt recently, as I've had Wilt ahead of Hakeem ever since I've made an all time list.

Sure, and yes I do.

The biggest thing is understanding how big the issues were with Wilt's impact. I've written about the volume scoring issues in various places, but one of them is the Chamberlain Theory article:

http://asubstituteforwar.com/2011/01/20 ... asketball/

Essentially, Wilt joined the Warriors, and the offense really didn't get much better. Same when he left, and same when he arrived on the 76ers. Now, comes '66-67 he did have huge impact as a more balanced scorer/distributor, which was great, but that it even made sense to not let Wilt volume score is very meaningful.

Simply put, I don't believe this would make sense for volume scorers in general, included Hakeem, and so I see this as a pretty major knock on Wilt.

There is also the matter that Wilt's career was chalked full of ups and downs, and full of drama. His team falls apart in '62-63 as his the team offense becomes ultra-predictable and Wilt slacks on defense, they recover in '63-64 when coach Hannum whips Wilt into shape. The team then falls apart even worse in '64-65. Wilt is injured and then traded this year, so that's part of the story that needs to be told, but understand that the team didn't really get any worse after the trade and the injured Wilt was still rocking a PER of about 30. If the team can totally fall apart with Wilt's stats staying about the same, and then the team can do just as well with Wilt gone, this really hammers in that Wilt's spinning his wheels.

Then of course, when it all clicked on the 76ers, he couldn't keep it up. And when he went to the Lakers, it took a while to click, and then he couldn't keep it up.

Okay, well that was a rant about a player already inducted onto our list.

Bottom line though is that most have Wilt ahead of Hakeem primarily because of Wilt's legendary numbers, and those numbers are very much misleading.

[Doctor MJ]

I am seriously tempted to start the project at the 24 second clock so I don't have to figure out where Mikan (and Mikkelson/Pollard/Martin/Fulks etc.) should be

Very good idea. One huge problem will be gone.

Put me down as someone who does not want to limit the project in this way.

The idea that we need to shy away from the tough dilemmas to me seems 180 backwards. I don't see problems, I see opportunities. Those tough dilemmas are telling you you need to focus on them further, and the beauty of a project like this is that it gives you an opportunity to give such a focus while working with others.

[SDChargers#1]

Huh, well I guess I won't have to decide about Duncan vs Garnett in this project.

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

You want to know Hakeem vs Kobe, well how about Garnett vs Kobe? Back in '04-05, people would have gone for Garnett easily. What changed after that?

Well, yes, Kobe did reach some new heights, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how much differently they'd rate Garnett now if Minny didn't drop off the face of the earth. I fully expect that had Garnett kept more with the prominence he'd previously had, we'd at least have a very tough debate between Kobe & KG.

I personally have come to the conclusion that Garnett just got screwed relative to Kobe in those years and that if I truly give Garnett the peak nod, it doesn't make sense to pick Kobe over him here, but I don't expect most to agree with me.

This comes back to Hakeem though as he's a super-quick big like Garnett, who is much better at blocking shots, stealing balls, and scoring the ball. I have Hakeem at #6 all-time, and I don't even know if that's high enough. We've truly never seen anyone like him.

Nomination: Dirk Nowitzki

My choice for Dirk over Robinson is a very, very close one. Suffice to say if Robinson had more longevity, I'd probably give him the nod.

Either of these guys vs Mikan? Well, let me state up front that I'm a believer in judging guys by adjusting for how tough the era was. I don't think there's really been a huge change on that front in the last 40-45 years, but for the first 20 years of the BAA/NBA, there was absolutely massive changes.

The biggest thing is probably just the skill differential that comes from having a league full of guys who grew up not realizing they'd be able to be pro basketball players. (And make no mistake, there was a huge improvement in skill. They shot less than 28% from the field in '46-47) However, I don't want to knock guys simply for lack of training. If guys were talented enough then to dominate to day, then I feel the need to completely adjust for the training.

I don't think that's the whole story though. Simply put, not knowing that there's going to be a career in pro basketball means that a lot of talented people, simply never play in the pro basketball league. So if a true all-time great talent was there, I would expect him to dominate like nobody's business.

Did Mikan do that? Well, certainly not like someone like Wilt Chamberlain did. I'm perfectly willing to overlook career longevity in a pioneer if he simply walks away from the game at his peak (a la Otto Graham), however Mikan's numbers really start going down in the years before his retirement at a time where you'd expect him to be hitting his prime.

In '51-52, Mikan was 27 and scored 23 PPG on a FG% of 38.5. By comparison, Paul Arizin was scoring 25 PPG on 44.8% FG. So Mikan was already much less productive by obvious metrics than earlier years, and had been easily surpass as a scoring threat.

Of course, Mikan still won titles after that, and I'm on record with Russell as my GOAT, so obviously I believe someone can have ridiculous impact without putting up big numbers. I can't claim certainty that Mikan wasn't like Russell, but I'm skeptical. Not skeptical about him being a strong defender, but skeptical about him being so amazingly good at defense that he'd have been head and shoulders ahead of everyone else today.

In the end where I've been with Mikan for quite a while is seeing him as a guy who I just can't see drafting over more modern complete big men. Guys like Robinson, Ewing, or Gilmore, I just don't see Mikan really being in a debate with them.

Where I start really looking at Mikan is when guys like Hayes, Reed, Thurmond, and Unseld enter into the picture. Guys who have something clearly lacking, I wonder whether an all around guy like Mikan would end up surpassing.

You are right, back in 04-05 people would have taken Garnett over Kobe. Funny how things change.

Since then Garnett missed the playoffs 3 times, got a DPoY and a title and 2 finals appearances, but has dropped from top 10 player in the league status (or at the very least borderline).

Kobe got his own team had a historic scoring season, and his two overall peak seasons. Won an MVP, went to 3 finals and won 2 titles and 2 finals MVPs. Kobe has been a top 5 player for every single one of those seasons and in the argument for best player in the league (while it was never definitive) for most of that time period.

It is a pretty seismic difference in accomplishments since '05.

It would be like saying, in '91 everyone would have taken Magic over Jordan. Come '98 though Jordan had clearly surpassed him.

Anyway as the main debate. Hakeem vs Kobe.

Hakeem has the better prime, I will readily admit as much. But unlike many here, I am not totally lost in Hakeem's amazing 3 years run (and it was amazing). I go by career, and Kobe has accomplished more.

Overall for his career Kobe is the better scorer by a fair margin (during the regular season). Higher volume, better efficiency (though marginal), and much better passing. In the playoffs, albeit scoring becomes much closer.

Hakeem gets a definite edge defensively, can't really argue with that and as a rebounder.

Once again, it is very close, but I take Kobe many extended playoff runs over Hakeem's few.

Vote: Kobe Bryant
Nominate: Dirk Nowitzki

[lorak]

I am seriously tempted to start the project at the 24 second clock so I don't have to figure out where Mikan (and Mikkelson/Pollard/Martin/Fulks etc.) should be

Very good idea. One huge problem will be gone.

Put me down as someone who does not want to limit the project in this way.

The idea that we need to shy away from the tough dilemmas to me seems 180 backwards. I don't see problems, I see opportunities. Those tough dilemmas are telling you you need to focus on them further, and the beauty of a project like this is that it gives you an opportunity to give such a focus while working with others.

I don't know Doc, we did exactly that (shot clock as cut off date) during RPOY and project was good. If I remember correctly everybody admitted that they don't know much about basketball around "shot clock", and even threads about seasons from second half of the 50s show that.

[Fencer reregistered]

I am seriously tempted to start the project at the 24 second clock so I don't have to figure out where Mikan (and Mikkelson/Pollard/Martin/Fulks etc.) should be but none of the other ones we have done did that so I guess no shortcuts.

It's not too late to make that change. I'd be for it.

[Fencer reregistered]

Nominee: Dirk. We're well-stocked with smalls on the nominee list. But with several other team-leading PFs on deck, we might as well add the other modern one as well. Besides, he won an MVP award and led a team to a championship, and I think he's the only one of those guys in the past 30 years we haven't nominated yet. (And besides being longer ago, Unseld, Cowens, Reed, and Walton all had longevity issues.)

Player: Hakeem

Hakeem vs. Kobe:

Both were outstanding scorers; just superb eye candy in both cases.

Both are perfectly competent passers for their respective position, but nothing special; mainly, it's not a black mark against them.

Hakeem's defense is more important than Kobe's, due to position.

Hakeem's rebounding is at least as important than Kobe's.

Hakeem never did anything as team-destructive as the Kobe-Shaq conflict.

Hakeem was not as selfish on the court as bad-Kobe.

Hakeem vs. Moses: Brilliance.

[shawngoat23]

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon (once again)
Nominate: David Robinson. Also considering Dirk, Pettit, and Havlicek, among others.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't know Doc, we did exactly that (shot clock as cut off date) during RPOY and project was good. If I remember correctly everybody admitted that they don't know much about basketball around "shot clock", and even threads about seasons from second half of the 50s show that.

Ah, a good thing to bring up.

The key difference is in the nature of the debates in a particular thread. In the RPOY project, having entire threads devoted to 1950s ball simply killed the momentum. There's no point in forcing something that just isn't going to work, so we stopped.

A Top 100 project has a thread devoted to a spot, and the only reason a 1950s era basketball player comes up is because literally people want to talk about it. So if it's not going to kill conversation, what's the problem?

[pancakes3]

I don't think Hondo should be nominated before Pippen or Barry either.

it'd be a travesty if pippen got in before havlicek.

Vote Hakeem
Nominate Mikan (if we decide to make the cutoff w/ the shot clock, then Dirk)

[Laimbeer]

How many people would be nominating Dirk at this level eight weeks ago?

We probably also need to get some clarification on Mikan pretty soon, so people won't be wasting nominations on him. If it's understood pre-shot clock is excluded, we shouldn't feel they're getting slighted.

I'm leaning Kobe over Hakeem right now but I'd like to hear the debate.

If Mikan is out, Zeke may need some consideration an the nominee.

[SDChargers#1]

I don't think Hondo should be nominated before Pippen or Barry either.

it'd be a travesty if pippen got in before havlicek.

Vote Hakeem
Nominate Mikan (if we decide to make the cutoff w/ the shot clock, then Dirk)

To be fair Pip is the better defender, rebounder, passer and all in the modern era. I don't think it would be a travesty at all personally.

[Gongxi]

I think that one sentence is about enough consideration at Thomas is going to need at this point.

I'd be in favor of limiting the project to the 24 second clock as well.

[penbeast0]

It's up to Baller as OP. Until he changes the rules, the original OP stands which includes Mikan but not pre-NBA Mikan (though I think NBL/BAA is allowed), not college ball, not ABL, and not world play as I understand it.