ValGay Pn'R - 1st option

[pbj]

TBH, I saw more Rudy To Val PnR's than Lowry to Val last season... So I wouldn't only blame Gay.

Yeah Rudy and JV really had some chemistry going near the end of the season. He was looking for him more than anyone.. maybe coming from Memphis, it's just a natural compulsion to feed it to his big.

[vini_vidi_vici]

TBH, I saw more Rudy To Val PnR's than Lowry to Val last season... So I wouldn't only blame Gay.

Yeah Rudy and JV really had some chemistry going near the end of the season. He was looking for him more than anyone.. maybe coming from Memphis, it's just a natural compulsion to feed it to his big.

I dont know that I necessarily agree.

Okay so lets do some quick math.

Val played with RG (3rd most of anyone on the team, behind DD/KL) for 594:31 mins.

So now lets divide by 48 (or 36 if you prefer). 12.38 games roughly.

RG accounted for 14 ASTs all year on JVs FGs. For roughly just over 1 AST a game between the 2 of them.

Over the last 6 games he played? WAS/MIN/MIL/CHI/ATL/BOS, he got 3 ASTs frm Val. Infact his best games were against bottom feeders CHA/DET (2 ASTs those games ha).

Now I know theres an argument to be made, maybe the scorer didnt credit players, maybe he made the pass but it didnt lead to an AST, etc..

My point is, a) RG isnt a great passer, and b) hes not racking up ASTs in general or in terms of big Val.

[Basketball_Jones]

This. It's something that could be worked on, but shouldn't be a focus.

People don't realize the preciseness of the PnR pass. It's not just about putting it in their hands, you have to time it so that it gets to them when they're in a position to score without having to create for themselves. That's the whole point of the PnR (for the roller), you get points from finishers that would otherwise not be able to create their own offense.

Calderon was pretty amazing at this and I kind of took it for granted and focused on his awful D and non existent dribble drive game. But one of the best stretches of last season was when Calderon was running things with the Amir/Ed pick and roll. Other then OKC, no team was able to really stop it.

[pbj]

TBH, I saw more Rudy To Val PnR's than Lowry to Val last season... So I wouldn't only blame Gay.

Yeah Rudy and JV really had some chemistry going near the end of the season. He was looking for him more than anyone.. maybe coming from Memphis, it's just a natural compulsion to feed it to his big.

I dont know that I necessarily agree.

Okay so lets do some quick math.

Val played with RG (3rd most of anyone on the team, behind DD/KL) for 594:31 mins.

So now lets divide by 48 (or 36 if you prefer). 12.38 games roughly.

RG accounted for 14 ASTs all year on JVs FGs. For roughly just over 1 AST a game between the 2 of them.

Over the last 6 games he played? WAS/MIN/MIL/CHI/ATL/BOS, he got 3 ASTs frm Val. Infact his best games were against bottom feeders CHA/DET (2 ASTs those games ha).

Now I know theres an argument to be made, maybe the scorer didnt credit players, maybe he made the pass but it didnt lead to an AST, etc..

My point is, a) RG isnt a great passer, and b) hes not racking up ASTs in general or in terms of big Val.

Get outta here with your "facts"

EDIT: But seriously, I recall a few times last year he'd stop a play entirely when he saw Val posting up just to feed him. Maybe not quantifiable but I saw that little glint in his eye

[vini_vidi_vici]

Check this out.

So Lowry played with Val 978:06 mins.
JC played with him, 333 mins.

Lowry ASTd on 33 FGM.
JC ASTd on 19 FGM.

Jonas had 204 FGM throughout the season right? 117 were after the trade on Feb 1st.

Im not going to do the numbers, but it shows just how effective JC was at getting the ball to Val.

@pbj Im not saying he hasnt and/or wont, im just saying I think its unlikely that its going to result in alot of success long term, in terms of it being efficient or constantly used. I admit though, watching the games late in the season it seemed few were willing passers so its not something I can only chastise RG for, its almost team wide.

[Basketball_Jones]

Passing is a problem on this team, and I think an upgrade at the point guard spot is in order. Lowry isn't really the problem, but he's the easiest to move and at the position where it's easier to find a playmaker.

[goodjoey]

our first option should be rudy on the right elbow. That is when we are at our best, great positioning for rebounds, open 3 at the top or cross court in case of a double, and not to mention rudy's superior post up moves on that side of the court. That will be our go to play this season, like demars pin down sequence on the left was last season.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Passing is a problem on this team, and I think an upgrade at the point guard spot is in order. Lowry isn't really the problem, but he's the easiest to move and at the position where it's easier to find a playmaker.

I agree and disagree, is that convoluted enough for everyone? ha.

I think if RG/DD is the "offensive" focal point, than yes Lowry should probably go.

If you move one of RG/DD (because of their redundencies) and ask KL to carry more offensive load PnRs/ISOs/OffScreens (his style of game preferably) rather than just dump the ball and/or spot up (despite having great spot up #s, 1.14PPP/51st in NBA), I think its better for the team. And perhaps you can replace them with player/s more amenable to passing, while getting alot more passing because of more volume frm KL.

But then what about Val? We have a gem offensively, a work in progress defensively, yet were trying to limit his touches in favor of DD/KL/RG?? and not accentuating his strengths with a great PnR PG (come back Jose?) or shooters all around him?? instead we have starters who want/need touches all in the midrange and in. It doesnt feel like were building around him right? The more I think about it, im unhappy with MUs approach this season, but thats another thread all together.

Thank god we have Amir, and not some USG guy the fans here clamour for on RGM, at PF.

[Basketball_Jones]

I think if RG/DD is the "offensive" focal point, than yes Lowry should probably go.

If you move one of RG/DD (because of their redundencies) and ask KL to carry more offensive load PnRs/ISOs/OffScreens (his style of game preferably) rather than just dump the ball and/or spot up (despite having great spot up #s, 1.14PPP/51st in NBA), I think its better for the team. And perhaps you can replace them with player/s more amenable to passing, while getting alot more passing because of more volume frm KL.

I hear you. I've come to the realization that Derozan is likely here to stay so we better get used to his one dimensional play. Gay maybe not, though I kind of like him.

[short_shorts]

Yeah I don't think it should be the first option, or even the second or third, but I also think Dwane Casey would make a funny australian.

Here are our main guys as P&R ball handlers according to Synergy Sports....

Rudy's at 0.74PPP/110th on 111 plays with the Raps
Lowry's at 0.82PPP/65th on 325 plays

And here's the big surprise
Demar's at 0.87PPP/30th in the league on 221 plays

Meanwhile...
Val was 1.23PPP/16th in the league on 108 plays as the P&R roll man.
Amir was 0.89PPP/68th in the league on 220 plays as the P&R roll man.

I say let Lowry work the PnR with Val and hope that Rudy and Demar have figured out their outside shooting. Maybe bring in Novak or Ross early for some spacing. Then let Demar give it a try with Amir to mix things up on the second unit. Because we'll need to find ways to score with that second unit.

Id like to piggyback this point.

RG with the Raps.


RG with the Grizz.


I dont mind more PnR in theory, but as you can see Rudys finishes (FGA/FTs/TO) are fairly average .74PPP for the Raps and .75PPP with the Grizzlies.

Not only does it show how significant the gap is between his PnR ball handler, and his overall, but it shows that despite everyones dread hes been better in ISOs (atleast here in Toronto, and significantly) hes been better in PostUps, and hes been better in Transition (obviously). The thing that stands out is his spot up shooting being abysmal, again specifically with the Raps, I expect that to improve and his ISOs PPP to come down.

But more to what I wanted to say was this doesnt account for inability to create for others because often times (Edit: erased a whole sentence ha) he was only creating for himself. It was up substancially from his career norms here, but even at an AST% of 15.3 (career high, his career 9.9%, his last 3 1/2 seasons with MEM roughly 12.1%). So even at 15.3% that puts him tied for 143rd with Cousins/Horford.

In terms of per36, 3.0 in Toronto, and roughly 2.4 the last 3 1/2 seasons with MEM. Again that ranks him with his career high 3.0 AP36 at 166th tied with luminaries Kent Bazelmore, Tim Ohlbrecht, and Al Harrington/Milsapp/Marshawn Brooks/Hawes/G Henderson. Its not like this guy at his height is performing on some insane level.



So now we look at the Raptors last year. They were literally more efficient in every other category than PnR, despite JCs .84PPP on 182 finishes (dont forget how much influence JC had in PnR Man too). I think its likely we see a more ISO heavy team, more PostUps, and more Transition in terms of actual volume, mainly because of the RG trade and less PnR.

And in regards to Val, his PnR Man is devasting 16th in the L in terms of PPP, 1.25. But hes also efficient in his biggest volume of finishes, PostUps 48th in the L at .88PPP. And the issue being with Lowry not being a great PnR PG, and trading your best one for a more ISO/PostUp heavy starting SF, I dont see that likely to increase. Nothing is absolute, so its fair to speculate, I just see no reason to think this particular combo RG/Val should be the primary option.

I dont mind seeing more of Lowry in the PnR because I felt he got better later in the season, and a better passer out of it, but expecting guys like DD/RG to help improve upon Vals PnR Man, is unlikely IMO. Infact I think thats where youre likely to see his biggest regression, in terms of PPP and probably volume (altho I suspect more touches, atleast I hope for Val). I think im rambling abit now, im tired so ill stop.

Edit: had to fix some numbers.

You put your players in a position where they are most likely to succeed, and by the stats it looks like Rudy is better utilized in ISO situations over P&R's. Thanks for the stats. Beyond the stats though...

Theoretically, it's my opinion that you want your PG to be your main P&R catalyst. It creates better mismatch problems, in terms of height and speed differentials (Lowry is more likely to get around Val's man to create opportunities with his speed, and Val is more likely to finish around the basket with Lowry's man covering him, as opposed to substituting Rudy and his man in these situations).

This way you are also sharing the load more on the team. Rudy still gets his ISO's and you add another element to the offense with a Lowry/Val P&R combo. So by taking Rudy off the floor, you're not debilitating your offense.

[pbj]

Yeah I don't think it should be the first option, or even the second or third, but I also think Dwane Casey would make a funny australian.

Here are our main guys as P&R ball handlers according to Synergy Sports....

Rudy's at 0.74PPP/110th on 111 plays with the Raps
Lowry's at 0.82PPP/65th on 325 plays

And here's the big surprise
Demar's at 0.87PPP/30th in the league on 221 plays

Meanwhile...
Val was 1.23PPP/16th in the league on 108 plays as the P&R roll man.
Amir was 0.89PPP/68th in the league on 220 plays as the P&R roll man.

I say let Lowry work the PnR with Val and hope that Rudy and Demar have figured out their outside shooting. Maybe bring in Novak or Ross early for some spacing. Then let Demar give it a try with Amir to mix things up on the second unit. Because we'll need to find ways to score with that second unit.

Hold on.. Demar is 30th in the league in terms of PPP PnR plays?

I'm bookmarking this for the next "In defense of Derozan" thread.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Sorry for hijacking the thread guys, and going OT. I was writing up a SotD the other day and lost interest, but it was about JV and defense and how bad it truly was.

So I was looking over JVs blocks on BBREF, and who they were on. The list isnt that impressive, but some things I thought were interesting, and well this is a JV thread.

First he loves playing DET. 12 of his 78 blocks or 15% of his BLKs came against them.

6 on Monroe. 3 on Drummond. Throw in Speights and those are the only 3 guys he has 3 BLKs against.

The irony? Monroe scored his most PPG against Toronto. And had his most OReb vs us (17 over 4 games). He manhandled the front lines.

Drummond? 10.0/7.3. 2nd most FTA against TO.

Combined they go off for 32.3/16.8 on 53% shooting. 7 OREB per game in only 35.2MPG/20.8MPG.

And FWIW, Speights went off for 14.3/7.0 (that season? 8.3/4.9) against the Raps again over 4 games. 10 more OREB tied for 2nd most against any team.

Synergy has him at 279th. .90PPP. DRTG 106. Maybe without JC/AB defense (the starters being better to insulate him), and natural development he can be better, how much though?

[vini_vidi_vici]

Hold on.. Demar is 30th in the league in terms of PPP PnR plays?

I'm bookmarking this for the next "In defense of Derozan" thread.

Its free man.

Go here. http://mysynergysports.com/ type in whatever team/player and look for yourself, but its only this season, and it includes playoffs for the players applicable.

[vini_vidi_vici]

You put your players in a position where they are most likely to succeed, and by the stats it looks like Rudy is better utilized in ISO situations over P&R's. Thanks for the stats. Beyond the stats though...

Theoretically, it's my opinion that you want your PG to be your main P&R catalyst. It creates better mismatch problems, in terms of height and speed differentials (Lowry is more likely to get around Val's man to create opportunities with his speed, and Val is more likely to finish around the basket with Lowry's man covering him, as opposed to substituting Rudy and his man in these situations).

This way you are also sharing the load more on the team. Rudy still gets his ISO's and you add another element to the offense with a Lowry/Val P&R combo. So by taking Rudy off the floor, you're not debilitating your offense.

Youre welcome.

Again I sorta address this later in the thread, the issue is while KL is a good/great (40th in the NBA) as PnR Ball Handler, its as a finisher.

Okay so using some quick math again.

Lowry was on the floor with Val for 978:06 mins. Divide by 48. 20.38 games (rounded up, whatever*)

Lowry had 33 ASTs to JV all season. Again, its not much more than 1.6 a game. Joses rate was 2.7 a game.

Having said that, I felt he got better in the year, and it shows, he had 9 ASTs in the last 7 games, despite 0 in both the MIL/CHI and remember JV went to line 10 times total those games, not alot of FGAs (12). So im not completely down on them as a combo, just that it could be alot better in terms of Vals touches/#s.

[Undefeated]

A 1-3 pick-and-roll action with Lowry and Rudy could be deadly in transition with Rudy as the screener setting those early drag screens. That's something I would be interested in watching if the Raptors are running screen-and-rolls. Defenses will have to step up on the screen or else Rudy will drain those mid-range jumpers when given a big cushion and if they don't Lowry can turn the corner and go downhill one-on-one against a big with his momentum moving backwards finishing at the rim that he does so well. There are endless combinations that they can exploit a defense like Rudy slipping the screen and no dribble extending himself to the basket for a finger-roll/scoop shot that's very difficult to deny with his length.

Another option is that they can reverse the play action (3-1) like how the OKC Thunder run it with Westbrook being the screener as KD toys with the defense attracting two and Westbrook will flare to the elbow extended for a spot-up jumper. If Lowry doesn't take that shot as his man is rushing at him on the close out he can attack off the dribble or they enter a side screen-and-roll as the defense is still recovering from the initial play action.

[short_shorts]

Passing is a problem on this team, and I think an upgrade at the point guard spot is in order. Lowry isn't really the problem, but he's the easiest to move and at the position where it's easier to find a playmaker.

I agree and disagree, is that convoluted enough for everyone? ha.

I think if RG/DD is the "offensive" focal point, than yes Lowry should probably go.

If you move one of RG/DD (because of their redundencies) and ask KL to carry more offensive load PnRs/ISOs/OffScreens (his style of game preferably) rather than just dump the ball and/or spot up (despite having great spot up #s, 1.14PPP/51st in NBA), I think its better for the team. And perhaps you can replace them with player/s more amenable to passing, while getting alot more passing because of more volume frm KL.

But then what about Val? We have a gem offensively, a work in progress defensively, yet were trying to limit his touches in favor of DD/KL/RG?? and not accentuating his strengths with a great PnR PG (come back Jose?) or shooters all around him?? instead we have starters who want/need touches all in the midrange and in. It doesnt feel like were building around him right? The more I think about it, im unhappy with MUs approach this season, but thats another thread all together.

Thank god we have Amir, and not some USG guy the fans here clamour for on RGM, at PF.

In a way, you should actually be ecstatic with MU's approach to JV's development. He's in a position as a very young big where he is not required to take on any significant offensive load. He has the opportunity the way the team is constructed to be given the ball where the coaching staff determines he is best utilized and the areas where he needs to develop.

Now it's up to that coaching staff to put a system in place where he does get those touches. I'm extremely weary of giving him too many as you would imply with your post. He needs to develop into a player that demands those touches, not be force fed.

With that said, who runs the P&R with him has to be based on who is best suited to do that today and in the future. There is no point in clamoring over other players, because you got what you got, and the best option at this point is to develop one of your own guys into a P&R combo with Val. That is likely Lowry. See what kind of relationship they can build and see if KL can become that P&R player. KL can be a very dynamic player on both ends of the floor, and to substitute him with someone that is a P&R specialist (just to aid Val's development) will likely be at the cost of other areas of the PG game that we enjoy with Lowry now (like his Defense, rebounding, shot creation).

[Scraptor]

Yeah I don't think it should be the first option, or even the second or third, but I also think Dwane Casey would make a funny australian.

Here are our main guys as P&R ball handlers according to Synergy Sports....

Rudy's at 0.74PPP/110th on 111 plays with the Raps
Lowry's at 0.82PPP/65th on 325 plays

And here's the big surprise
Demar's at 0.87PPP/30th in the league on 221 plays

Meanwhile...
Val was 1.23PPP/16th in the league on 108 plays as the P&R roll man.
Amir was 0.89PPP/68th in the league on 220 plays as the P&R roll man.

I say let Lowry work the PnR with Val and hope that Rudy and Demar have figured out their outside shooting. Maybe bring in Novak or Ross early for some spacing. Then let Demar give it a try with Amir to mix things up on the second unit. Because we'll need to find ways to score with that second unit.

Hold on.. Demar is 30th in the league in terms of PPP PnR plays?

I'm bookmarking this for the next "In defense of Derozan" thread.

Don't want to derail, but it's worth noting he's also 44th in the league in iso and 66th in post-up situations. But he gets dragged down a lot (to 156th overall) by being 153rd in spot-up situations, which account for 19% of his shots. Which probably has a great deal to do with his complete lack of a 3-point shot.

I've said it before, but I think there is improvement going under the surface of Demar's somewhat static efficiency numbers. We'll know for sure this year.

[vini_vidi_vici]

A 1-3 pick-and-roll action with Lowry and Rudy could be deadly in transition with Rudy as the screener setting those early drag screens. That's something I would be interested in watching if the Raptors are running screen-and-rolls. Defenses will have to step up on the screen or else Rudy will drain those mid-range jumpers when given a big cushion and if they don't Lowry can turn the corner and go downhill one-on-one against a big with his momentum moving backwards finishing at the rim that he does so well. There are endless combinations that they can exploit a defense like Rudy slipping the screen and no dribble extending himself to the basket for a finger-roll/scoop shot that's very difficult to deny with his length.

Another option is that they can reverse the play action (3-1) like how the OKC Thunder run it with Westbrook being the screener as KD toys with the defense attracting two and Westbrook will flare to the elbow extended for a spot-up jumper. If Lowry doesn't take that shot as a defender is rushing at him on the close out he can attack off the dribble or they enter a side screen-and-roll as the defense is still recovering from the initial play action.

I agree on the first paragraph, I want to mention, altho small sample size its worth mentioning RG shot 2 for 9, with no And1s. .70PPP. Wasnt much bettter in MEM .73PPP, again no And1s.

I dont know why teams instead of trying to play LBJ/RG/etc.. at the 4, run plays for them like 4s instead. That way you can initiate with a PG/SG in this case Lowry. Ill grant you LBJ is extremely effective in small sample sizes already (1.33PPP) but teams in the NBA just seem to veer away from that (only 2.1% of his finishes, like RGs 1.4% here and 2.6% in MEM), is it a philosophical thing? players controlling the offense??

Having said all of that guys, this has become Val-centric, Amir has PPP in the PnR Man 1.23PPP to Vals .99PPP. If were not developing and trying to win, I would like to see Amir get some and/or alot of screens/touches.

[Throwback24]

Lowry and Val pnr is a better option. Can Casey and Lowry will play up to his usual standards.

[vini_vidi_vici]

In a way, you should actually be ecstatic with MU's approach to JV's development. He's in a position as a very young big where he is not required to take on any significant offensive load. He has the opportunity the way the team is constructed to be given the ball where the coaching staff determines he is best utilized and the areas where he needs to develop.

Now it's up to that coaching staff to put a system in place where he does get those touches. I'm extremely weary of giving him too many as you would imply with your post. He needs to develop into a player that demands those touches, not be force fed.

With that said, who runs the P&R with him has to be based on who is best suited to do that today and in the future. There is no point in clamoring over other players, because you got what you got, and the best option at this point is to develop one of your own guys into a P&R combo with Val. That is likely Lowry. See what kind of relationship they can build and see if KL can become that P&R player. KL can be a very dynamic player on both ends of the floor, and to substitute him with someone that is a P&R specialist (just to aid Val's development) will likely be at the cost of other areas of the PG game that we enjoy with Lowry now (like his Defense, rebounding, shot creation).

In some ways I agree with your first paragraphs premise. You dont want to make him some focal point right away, year 2. What I dont like outside of the roster construct/etc.. and strictly in terms of Vals development, is you dont have players to compliment what he does best. PostUps and PnR Man (OREB I wont count for obv reasons) according to synergy. I wrote above, KL is averaging an AST less per game with Val than JC. He was replaced with Buycks? whoever wins the job. I dont think its likely his improves will improve in terms of volume (maybe because he was hurt alot during JCs run) and I almost bet it will regress in terms of PPP.

So you look at PostUps, and as we all know, to be effective you cant have perimeter players sagging down, because you need spacing on the floor. Where are the shooters besides Novak? How much of a role do you think he will get?? The players in the lineup all need their touches midrange and in, due to poor shooting. Remember too, KL finished the year .03% above league average from 3.

So I outlined earlier ITT his deficiencies/liability as a defender, so if hes to maximize his value, it stands to reason youd exploit his rather gaudy offensive numbers. Highest TS% for a rookie ever, 39th overall in PPP, 16th in the NBA in PnR Man PPP. Exploit these things, not just for right now, but the future growth, hes taking all he can handle and producing offensively at a great clip. I fear instead he wont get the spacing, and touches he needs to be that dominant big man, with the roster around him.