Can the Clippers Finally Get to the Conference Finals?

[og15]

If they make it, it will be a result of Rivers finding ways to optimize their terrific offense, improve their defense, and utilize their deep bench. If they fall short, it will be because they couldn’t become anything more than the sum of their ballyhooed parts.

On the surface Hawes may seem like a random add, but he provides the Clippers with the exact kind of stretchy big they really didn’t have last year. He is head over heels in love with the top-of-the-arc 3, and he has every right to be. Out of the 21 guys who shot at least 100 times from there last season, here are the five most accurate:

1. Carmelo Anthony, 46 percent
2. Spencer Hawes, 46 percent
3. Kevin Durant, 43 percent
4. Dirk Nowitzki, 42 percent
5. Stephen Curry, 42 percent

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/can-t ... ce-finals/

Of course at first thought it is weird when commentators say "finally" as if the Clippers have been a powerhouse consistently missing the conference finals. Realistically the Clippers have just made a slow climb 5th seed in 11-12, 4th seed in 12-13 and 3rd seed last season. Now they are trying to get to that next level. They were basically last seasons Portland in 11-12, though not as good a team as that, and last seasons Houston in 12-13. This team has been together for three seasons, two coached by VDN whatever that implies to people. This team has been a top 4 seed twice, just got their "high level coach" last season, and have only really had a real chance at the conference finals 2 times, and one had their second best player get injured half way through their first round series vs an evenly matched team. So "finally" with the implication that it has been a long time coming is misleading, but is based on a false perspective / narrative of this super complete all holes filled team that just wasn't winning. This team is just getting started.

I think the majority of us didn't see Hawes as a random addition, but as exactly the type of addition needed. Many of us have been crying for a Channing Frye type player basically since the first season Paul got here to pair with Griffin/Paul and give them even more operating space.

Can this team finally get to the conference finals? Yes. Will this team get there? Of course we don't know, West still has at least two very formidable opponents in the Spurs and Thunder that will be hard to get past. One thing I do see as a possibility with good health is this team being able to get the best record in the West. What that could set up is a situation where OKC and SA are the ones meeting in the 2nd round and that's a great situation for the Clippers

[LACtdom]

It will be hard but we need that no1 seed and some good luck on the injury front to be in the race for the title.

[MartinToVaught]

I'd say "finally" is in the title because we've never been past the second round as a franchise, not because we're some powerhouse.

Not trying to be negative, but I'll believe it when I see it. I've gotten my hopes up too many times in recent years only to see it cruelly snatched away.

[Neddy]

can they? of course they can.

will they? you just gotta believe.

ironic for me to say anything about believing as I am a diehard atheist.

[NBAfan3024]

Yeah certainly. The talent is there, so is the coaching and the depth. The west is stacked though that's the issue. I still feel they should of beat OKC last year

[QRich3]

People don't really realize how awfully hard it is to make the WCF, specially with how stacked the conference is in this era. Dirk's Mavs had a similarly close-to-contending roster as we have now for the last decade and a half, and they only made the WCF 3 out of 14 years or so. Adleman's Kings with Webber and Divac only made the WCF once, and D'Antoni's Suns only twice. We can definitely make it every year for the next 4 or 5, but if we will make it or not depends on a lot of factors, and a good deal of them are out of the team's hands.

To increase our odds to get there, the most glaring need is to play top level defense, and while Hawes is nice and fills an area of need, he doesn't help much there. I thought our biggest need in the offseason was wing defense, as we all spoke a million times here, and not only were we unable to improve much there, we probably got worse with Barnes declining. Still, the most important factor for our defense is DJ developing into what we all think he might become, an elite rim protector and defensive anchor, in a similar way that Ibaka went in the last few years from shot-blocking guy who bites on every pump fake to solid rim protector with the ability to anchor a top defense. Let's cross our fingers for that to happen.

Our offense should be even better than last year with Blake keeping to expand his range, Redick being healthier, and Hawes opening up more possibilities. I see Cleveland topping us for the best offense in the league, since they have just too much fire power, but we should still be a top-3 offense comfortably. Can't say it enough times, we just need what we needed 3 years ago, to improve our freaking defense!! Sadly we barely have any room to sign anyone or make trades, so we'll have to trust in the system settling in after the first year and DJ keeping to improve. It'll be a slow and hopefully steady process.

[Clemenza]

I'm a little worried.. about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes(I honestly think he's done) CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo(he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF. They only 'hungry' players I saw in preseason, outside of the stars & starters, was Hawes and Jared Cunningham. I hope I'm wrong but Blake, CP3, DJ are gonna have to ball the f*ck out this season for us to get 50 wins again

[Neddy]

I'm a little worried.. about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes(I honestly think he's done) CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo(he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF. They only 'hungry' players I saw in preseason, outside of the stars & starters, was Hawes and Jared Cunningham. I hope I'm wrong but Blake, CP3, DJ are gonna have to ball the f*ck out this season for us to get 50 wins again

50? you really mean that? we will win close to 60. probably 56-59 range most likely but you are worried about 50?

we will have the top offensive team in the NBA this year again, in regular season that is more than enough to win, the problem comes from our defense in a short series. Im glad Blake is slowly showing signs of being a pretty decent defender now. CP3 will do his part, and DJ will be the interior defensive force, no doubt. DJ will probably lead the league again in rebounding too and be a top 5 in blocked shots. but the problem from there on, is that JJ and his T-Rex arms won't guard even average SG on one on one all that too well, Barnes seems to have lost it in all facets of his game, and on the second unit, there is only CDR and Udoh who can play any defense. Farmar and Crawford guard tandem for the second unit is atrocious. Hawes isn't a good defender at all. Baby with lost weight now have no girth to push people around. he is just now another short undersized big who can't jump. Cunningham won't see the floor until one of the two PGs ahead of him is hurt and that would be a bad news for us. Bullock has amounted to exactly... nothing. CJ seems more confident in his game and play both ends, but again, there are plenty ahead of him on the depth chart. Hedo shouldn't play unless we are really down ( in need of a 3 ball ) or really up (mop up duties ).

as I've been saying, I think there is a trade coming and it will bolster defense. if DJ is playing like a max player he wants to be at least on defensive end, it will be a wing defender we get. that would be the most ideal unless CDR can turn it up a notch and take over that position.

but come on man, 50?

[Clemenza]

I'm a little worried.. about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes(I honestly think he's done) CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo(he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF. They only 'hungry' players I saw in preseason, outside of the stars & starters, was Hawes and Jared Cunningham. I hope I'm wrong but Blake, CP3, DJ are gonna have to ball the f*ck out this season for us to get 50 wins again

50? you really mean that? we will win close to 60. probably 56-59 range most likely but you are worried about 50?

we will have the top offensive team in the NBA this year again, in regular season that is more than enough to win, the problem comes from our defense in a short series. Im glad Blake is slowly showing signs of being a pretty decent defender now. CP3 will do his part, and DJ will be the interior defensive force, no doubt. DJ will probably lead the league again in rebounding too and be a top 5 in blocked shots. but the problem from there on, is that JJ and his T-Rex arms won't guard even average SG on one on one all that too well, Barnes seems to have lost it in all facets of his game, and on the second unit, there is only CDR and Udoh who can play any defense. Farmar and Crawford guard tandem for the second unit is atrocious. Hawes isn't a good defender at all. Baby with lost weight now have no girth to push people around. he is just now another short undersized big who can't jump. Cunningham won't see the floor until one of the two PGs ahead of him is hurt and that would be a bad news for us. Bullock has amounted to exactly... nothing. CJ seems more confident in his game and play both ends, but again, there are plenty ahead of him on the depth chart. Hedo shouldn't play unless we are really down ( in need of a 3 ball ) or really up (mop up duties ).

as I've been saying, I think there is a trade coming and it will bolster defense. if DJ is playing like a max player he wants to be at least on defensive end, it will be a wing defender we get. that would be the most ideal unless CDR can turn it up a notch and take over that position.

but come on man, 50?

you basically said the same sh*t as I did. but you're saying 60 wins with our lackluster bench? really?? The West is stacked to death this season.. even more than last season

[og15]

Your vision of how bad the bench is might be off. Remember we are comparing to other benches, not starters.

The two main players on the bench are Crawford and Hawes. Last season it was Collison and Crawford, but last season the starting SG played 39 games and Paul missed a decent amount, Jamal missed 13 games too, so for a good chunk of the season, the bench wasn't even that strong.

The team won 57 games. There isn't much difference between the quality of the bench, and the bench guys should actually be playing more bench minutes this season compared to last.

[Wammy Giveaway]

I'm a little worried... about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes, CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo (he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF.

Conspiracy theory time: the projected total value of all the players you mentioned minus Hedo Turkoglu and Big Baby Davis (because I think Doc keeps them no matter what) is $7.5 million. Add Jamal Crawford and the possibility of trading DeAndre Jordan (you have to be prepared for anything), and you get approx. $24.4 million worth of seven tradeable players. Include the $3.2 cash compensation, and your total comes out to $27.6 million worth of returning assets.

That would mean the untouchable players are Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin, Jordan Farmar, Glen Davis, Spencer Hawes, Hedo Turkoglu and training camp survivor Jared Cunningham.

If DeAndre Jordan makes the All Star Game this year, Doc Rivers will decide to keep him permanently, and the total projected value drops down to $12.9 million, $16.1 million with cash compensation.

Should the Clippers have a trade in place so that Chris Paul gets to experience being in the conference finals, the trade worth of six or seven players could fetch them either one more superstar to go with the proposed Big 3 or one superstar to solidify the proposed Big 3.

In other words, I think Doc purposely signed some of those players so that he could trade the farm for a superstar in a blockbuster move. However, my big problem with this thinking is that the non-DJ-value is only good enough to bring back James Harden, when Doc really wants a Rudy Gay.

I'll keep an eye on this.

EDIT: Is it true that if a player signs way late into the season, the salary value will be so less that it hardly affects the salary cap. I want to know more about 10-day contracts and post-trade deadline signings.

[LACtdom]

Your vision of how bad the bench is might be off. Remember we are comparing to other benches, not starters.

The two main players on the bench are Crawford and Hawes. Last season it was Collison and Crawford, but last season the starting SG played 39 games and Paul missed a decent amount, Jamal missed 13 games too, so for a good chunk of the season, the bench wasn't even that strong.

The team won 57 games. There isn't much difference between the quality of the bench, and the bench guys should actually be playing more bench minutes this season compared to last.

I agree that our bench is better than last year but a superstar team beats a team of superstars any day. Our bench during the VDN era would smash our current bench yet arguably it didn't have a roster that much better.

[Neddy]

I'm a little worried.. about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes(I honestly think he's done) CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo(he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF. They only 'hungry' players I saw in preseason, outside of the stars & starters, was Hawes and Jared Cunningham. I hope I'm wrong but Blake, CP3, DJ are gonna have to ball the f*ck out this season for us to get 50 wins again

50? you really mean that? we will win close to 60. probably 56-59 range most likely but you are worried about 50?

we will have the top offensive team in the NBA this year again, in regular season that is more than enough to win, the problem comes from our defense in a short series. Im glad Blake is slowly showing signs of being a pretty decent defender now. CP3 will do his part, and DJ will be the interior defensive force, no doubt. DJ will probably lead the league again in rebounding too and be a top 5 in blocked shots. but the problem from there on, is that JJ and his T-Rex arms won't guard even average SG on one on one all that too well, Barnes seems to have lost it in all facets of his game, and on the second unit, there is only CDR and Udoh who can play any defense. Farmar and Crawford guard tandem for the second unit is atrocious. Hawes isn't a good defender at all. Baby with lost weight now have no girth to push people around. he is just now another short undersized big who can't jump. Cunningham won't see the floor until one of the two PGs ahead of him is hurt and that would be a bad news for us. Bullock has amounted to exactly... nothing. CJ seems more confident in his game and play both ends, but again, there are plenty ahead of him on the depth chart. Hedo shouldn't play unless we are really down ( in need of a 3 ball ) or really up (mop up duties ).

as I've been saying, I think there is a trade coming and it will bolster defense. if DJ is playing like a max player he wants to be at least on defensive end, it will be a wing defender we get. that would be the most ideal unless CDR can turn it up a notch and take over that position.

but come on man, 50?

you basically said the same sh*t as I did. but you're saying 60 wins with our lackluster bench? really?? The West is stacked to death this season.. even more than last season

no i listed our issues that will become a challenge once we are in a short series in playoffs, but already had stated our offensive tools alone can get us close to 60.

you may have missed my sentences prior to the one you bolded out.

[LACtdom]

I'm a little worried... about a third of our roster is dead weight IMO. Barnes, CDR, Udoh, Big Baby, Bullock, Wilcox, Hedo (he may help). That's a lot of players who really give nothing for us to make the WCF.

Conspiracy theory time: the projected total value of all the players you mentioned minus Hedo Turkoglu and Big Baby Davis (because I think Doc keeps them no matter what) is $7.5 million. Add Jamal Crawford and the possibility of trading DeAndre Jordan (you have to be prepared for anything), and you get approx. $24.4 million worth of seven tradeable players. Include the $3.2 cash compensation, and your total comes out to $27.6 million worth of returning assets.

That would mean the untouchable players are Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin, Jordan Farmar, Glen Davis, Spencer Hawes, Hedo Turkoglu and training camp survivor Jared Cunningham.

If DeAndre Jordan makes the All Star Game this year, Doc Rivers will decide to keep him permanently, and the total projected value drops down to $12.9 million, $16.1 million with cash compensation.

Should the Clippers have a trade in place so that Chris Paul gets to experience being in the conference finals, the trade worth of six or seven players could fetch them either one more superstar to go with the proposed Big 3 or one superstar to solidify the proposed Big 3.

In other words, I think Doc purposely signed some of those players so that he could trade the farm for a superstar in a blockbuster move. However, my big problem with this thinking is that the non-DJ-value is only good enough to bring back James Harden, when Doc really wants a Rudy Gay.

I'll keep an eye on this.

EDIT: Is it true that if a player signs way late into the season, the salary value will be so less that it hardly affects the salary cap. I want to know more about 10-day contracts and post-trade deadline signings.

I'm all for a trade but we keep mentioning 'a third star' without actually naming names. Who could we actually get for DJ? Harden - Rockets have Dwight, Rudy Gay - Kings have Cousins, Joe Johnson - Brook Lopez, etc. Yes, I know it would have to be a multi-team trade anyway because of roster limits. Let's face it, who wants to give up a (scoring) star for a one-way center? Can anyone name a team who would agree to a trade where they give up a star for DJ? The closest I can think of is sending DJ to MIA (who have always needed a center) maybe for Deng or some sort of package with Granger. Maybe a multi-team trade where we overpay for Rudy Gay?

I'm all for a trade but it's going to be very difficult to implement and get multiple teams to agree to it. You can't build a team around DJ so would he need to be sent to a contender? Denver? Wolves for Wiggins?

[og15]

Your vision of how bad the bench is might be off. Remember we are comparing to other benches, not starters.

The two main players on the bench are Crawford and Hawes. Last season it was Collison and Crawford, but last season the starting SG played 39 games and Paul missed a decent amount, Jamal missed 13 games too, so for a good chunk of the season, the bench wasn't even that strong.

The team won 57 games. There isn't much difference between the quality of the bench, and the bench guys should actually be playing more bench minutes this season compared to last.

I agree that our bench is better than last year but a superstar team beats a team of superstars any day. Our bench during the VDN era would smash our current bench yet arguably it didn't have a roster that much better.

I agree, rotation gets shortened, it is about your top 7-8. The bench was nice but the starters weren't that good with Green/Butler and a less productive DJ.

Since I was a proponent of starting Bledsoe in 12-13 next to Paul, loved the combo, to me ideally your top players would be:

Paul / Bledsoe / Butler / Griffin / Jordan

Key bench: Crawford / Butler / Odom

Odom sucked, DJ was not very productive for multiple reasons, Butler was mediocre at best, so you look at the top 8 and it certainly was not a championship level roster. Also we're talking about the Bledse that was putting up 15/5/5 per 36 not the current Bledsoe.

A very logical thing is to trade Redick or Jamal for a pretty decent SF The reasoning is that if I have a similar talented / above average SF I can play 32-36 minutes, I can just increase the minutes of whichever one I keep and I can survive with playing a weaker backup at both positions for about 14-15 mpg.

[Quake Griffin]

LMAO at how alarmist people are.

note to doc: have these MFs ready for preseason if you want Clipper faithful to have any faith that we're gonna do something to start the year.

this is a 60 win team.
this team can reach the CF and it should have last year if Paul didn't shoot a fake full court shot.

[mttwlsn16]

LMAO at how alarmist people are.

note to doc: have these MFs ready for preseason if you want Clipper faithful to have any faith that we're gonna do something to start the year.

this is a 60 win team.
this team can reach the CF and it should have last year if Paul didn't shoot a fake full court shot.

Agreed. Im not worried. I see no reason we dont win 60 games this year. We won 57 last year with CP3 missing 1/4 of the season, JJ missing 2/3 of the season, having Mullens/Jamison as our main backup bigs for most of the season, Grover starting at the 2 a lot, and Crawford missing a decent chunk of time at the end.
With JJ back healthy, and adding Hawes and a full season of Turk/Baby (while those 2 are nothing great, I like them a LOT more than Mullens and Jamison) we should absolutely be a 60 win team.
Only things that concern me currently are Farmar (he will be my Byron Mullens this year) and the fact that our 3 spot is mediocre at best. Nothing I am going to go crazy over in October though.

[Wammy Giveaway]

I'm all for a trade but we keep mentioning 'a third star' without actually naming names. Who could we actually get for DJ? Harden - Rockets have Dwight, Rudy Gay - Kings have Cousins, Joe Johnson - Brook Lopez, etc. Yes, I know it would have to be a multi-team trade anyway because of roster limits. Let's face it, who wants to give up a (scoring) star for a one-way center? Can anyone name a team who would agree to a trade where they give up a star for DJ? The closest I can think of is sending DJ to MIA (who have always needed a center) maybe for Deng or some sort of package with Granger. Maybe a multi-team trade where we overpay for Rudy Gay?

If the Clippers do indeed trade for a superstar, it will be because Doc wanted him, more the reason he became GM.

James Harden - I mentioned him specifically because he's the "cheapest" ($14 million) of superstars to trade for. Has admitted he doesn't play defense. This current Clippers team is DeAndre Jordan defense, Phoenix Suns offense (sound familiar: "Chris Paul offense" - Vinny Del Negro)

Dwight Howard - CP3 has always wanted to play with him. Doc goes after players who have defeated his Big 3 Celtics and superstars who have never won a ring; he fits both. Lakers wanted a CP3-Dwight-Kobe Big 3 before Stern screwed them hard. Can a CP3-Griffin-Howard do any better? Alas, very expensive, like $20 million.

Rudy Gay - "Rudy Gay is a black hole" (replace Rudy Gay with Josh Smith for the same effect). Grizzlies got rid of him, they made the conference (at the Clippers expense, no doubt). Raptors got rid of him, they were back in the playoffs. Imagine if the Kings trade him to LAC, hoping the "Rudy Gay Curse" adversely affects the next team to get him. Ironically, the Clips desperately need him. And it'll cost the Clips $17 million to get him.

DeMarcus Cousins - Very emotional, gets ejected multiple times, but he plays with his behind on earthquake alert at all times. Recently vowed to limit his technical foul count to five; while in Clipperland, the Hardcore Clippers have suddenly turned into an emotionally volatile team (proven by J.J. Redick getting ejected). Cousins has yet to make the All Star game, and that will change this season. Has roughly the same contract value as Mr. Fear The Beard because of the extension.

Joe Johnson - 7x All Star, shooting guard/small forward hybrid. Has played with Jamal Crawford before. He is really expensive, way in the $23 million range. Unless the Nets trade him to a lottery team and buy him out, no dice.

Carmelo Anthony - CP3's buddy, the superstar the Clippers should have gone after, but were denied access because of the Donald Sterling scandal and luxury capped. His only conference appearances came with the help of Chauncey Billups; CP3 can fill the void. Expensive, in the $20+ million range.

[LACtdom]

If the Clippers do indeed trade for a superstar, it will be because Doc wanted him, more the reason he became GM.

James Harden - I mentioned him specifically because he's the "cheapest" ($14 million) of superstars to trade for. Has admitted he doesn't play defense. This current Clippers team is DeAndre Jordan defense, Phoenix Suns offense (sound familiar: "Chris Paul offense" - Vinny Del Negro)

Dwight Howard - CP3 has always wanted to play with him. Doc goes after players who have defeated his Big 3 Celtics and superstars who have never won a ring; he fits both. Lakers wanted a CP3-Dwight-Kobe Big 3 before Stern screwed them hard. Can a CP3-Griffin-Howard do any better? Alas, very expensive, like $20 million.

Rudy Gay - "Rudy Gay is a black hole" (replace Rudy Gay with Josh Smith for the same effect). Grizzlies got rid of him, they made the conference (at the Clippers expense, no doubt). Raptors got rid of him, they were back in the playoffs. Imagine if the Kings trade him to LAC, hoping the "Rudy Gay Curse" adversely affects the next team to get him. Ironically, the Clips desperately need him. And it'll cost the Clips $17 million to get him.

DeMarcus Cousins - Very emotional, gets ejected multiple times, but he plays with his behind on earthquake alert at all times. Recently vowed to limit his technical foul count to five; while in Clipperland, the Hardcore Clippers have suddenly turned into an emotionally volatile team (proven by J.J. Redick getting ejected). Cousins has yet to make the All Star game, and that will change this season. Has roughly the same contract value as Mr. Fear The Beard because of the extension.

Joe Johnson - 7x All Star, shooting guard/small forward hybrid. Has played with Jamal Crawford before. He is really expensive, way in the $23 million range. Unless the Nets trade him to a lottery team and buy him out, no dice.

Carmelo Anthony - CP3's buddy, the superstar the Clippers should have gone after, but were denied access because of the Donald Sterling scandal and luxury capped. His only conference appearances came with the help of Chauncey Billups; CP3 can fill the void. Expensive, in the $20+ million range.

Personally, I would drool over a Blake/Cousins tandem (would love to see us finally bully memphis). The problem with all those trade scenarios is that none of those players want to leave their current team and Brooklyn might be the only team who is ready to give up on their current roster. Just curious, is it an automatic ban from the forums if Klay Thompson is mentioned?

Maybe another direction is to go for talented youth - Enes Kanter (since Utah can't afford all there young players next year anyway), and use the remaining cash for the SF role or vice versia.

[Wammy Giveaway]

Personally, I would drool over a Blake/Cousins tandem (would love to see us finally bully memphis). The problem with all those trade scenarios is that none of those players want to leave their current team and Brooklyn might be the only team who is ready to give up on their current roster. Just curious, is it an automatic ban from the forums if Klay Thompson is mentioned?

Funny you mentioned Klay Thompson. He and the Warriors are not getting along as far as extensions are concerned. He and Curry make one of the deadliest back court shooting duos in the NBA today. And he can hold his own on defense based on the Preventions I did for him in the first round. Against the Clippers, he prevented 3.1 shots for 7.4 points, 1.3 passes, and helped the Warriors on 1.4 of defensive assignments. His starting stats were much better than J.J. Redick's (2.6 shots for 6.3 points, 0.7 passes, and helped on 0.9 of Clipper defensive assignments).

But Doc is primarily interested in shooters and/or a superstar. With a .417/.424 in 3P shooting, regular season and playoffs respectively, and coming off of a Gold Medal in the FIBA tournament, he fits Doc's qualifiers.

Also consider that he was potentially being shopped for superstar Kevin Love. Did this snub Klay the wrong way? Not quite, but the inconclusiveness to an extension might. The Clippers have to understand that in competition, there's no such thing as friends, only enemies. Unless your franchise is located in the left side of Texas and/or you are named after the silver accessories to cowboy boots, your only other option could be to turning your enemies into allies (not friends).