All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

[bondom34]

Same Spaceman, you're one of my favorites here, and I really enjoy your posts (you and Paulie are 2 guys I generally seek out in threads to read stuff from). I'm feeling the same as Paulie here too.

[SideshowBob]

2015 Golden State Warriors In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curry IN (80 G, 67-13)

+10.4 SRS, +6.3 Offense, -4.3 Defense

Spoiler:

112.3 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +10.6 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Bogut, Green IN (59 G, 52-7)

+11.3 SRS, +6.5 Offense, -4.9 Defense

Spoiler:

112.6 ORTG, 100.7 DRTG, +11.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Bogut, Green IN | Lee IN (34 G, 28-6)

+11.3 SRS, +8.1 Offense, -3.7 Defense

Spoiler:

113.7 ORTG, 102.2 DRTG, +11.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Bogut, Green IN | Lee OUT (25 G, 24-1)

+11.1 SRS, +4.4 Offense, -6.5 Defense

Spoiler:

111.0 ORTG, 98.7 DRTG, +10.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Green IN | Bogut OUT (14 G, 9-5)

+7.4 SRS, +5.4 Offense, -2.2 Defense

Spoiler:

111.9 ORTG, 104.4 DRTG, +7.6 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Green IN | Bogut, Lee OUT (5 G, 4-1)

+8.1 SRS, +4.9 Offense, -2.4 Defense

Spoiler:

109.8 ORTG, 105.2 DRTG, +7.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Curry, Klay, Green, Lee IN | Bogut OUT (9 G, 5-4)

+7.1 SRS, +5.7 Offense, -2.0 Defense

Spoiler:

113.0 ORTG, 103.9 DRTG, +7.7 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Note that there are overlaps in these sets.

[SideshowBob]

2015 Cleveland In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT (13 G. 3-10)

-8.8 SRS, -4.4 Offense, +5.8 Defense

Spoiler:

99.7 ORTG, 111.1 DRTG, -10.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN (69 G, 50-19)

+6.5 SRS, +8.5 Offense, +1.1 Defense

Spoiler:

114.2 ORTG, 106.3 DRTG, +7.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT | Irving, Love IN (9 G, 3-6)

-5.1 SRS, -0.7 Offense, +5.8 Defense

Spoiler:

103.6 ORTG, 112.2 DRTG, -6.0 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN | Irving, Love IN (60 G, 46-14)

+7.6 SRS, +9.3 Offense, +0.6 Defense

Spoiler:

115.0 ORTG, 105.8 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron, Mozgov OUT | Irving, Love IN (5 G, 1-4)

-6.0 SRS, -2.8 Offense, +4.4 Defense

Spoiler:

101.6 ORTG, 111.1 DRTG, -7.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron OUT | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (4 G, 2-2)

-3.9 SRS, +1.9 Offense, +6.4 Defense

Spoiler:

106.2 ORTG, 113.6 DRTG, -4.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (33 G, 29-4)

+11.4 SRS, +11.0 Offense, -1.5 Defense

Spoiler:

116.6 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG, +12.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that third In/Out set (^^^) is essentially the "healthy"/post-break Lebron set. They managed to sustain higher than an 11 SRS despite the defense dropping off, Blatt resting the starters/Lebron in the 4th quarter (they straight up through a home game), coasting, etc. In the first 28 games of those 33, they were at a +13.4 SRS (25-3), last 5 they were at +0.2 SRS (4-1), so take that however you like.

[SideshowBob]

Trying to do OKC now but it's become a mess with how many guys >25 MPG are in and out.

Obvious trends are still notable of course, trying my best to control for Ibaka, Adams, Kanter, etc:

OKC with Durant and Westbrook looked like a +5ish SRS team. Waiters presence however coinciding with them playing weaker at around +4.5, vs almost +6 without him. OKC with Westbrook and without Durant looked like a +3 SRS team. Without Waiters, roughly +4, with Waiters, dropped to +1.

[SideshowBob]

2015 San Antonio Spurs In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Duncan, Leonard, Parker Ginobili IN | Control for Diaw, Green (52 G, 38-14)

+9.0 SRS, +3.7 Offense, -5.7 Defense

Spoiler:

109.8 ORTG, 100.6 DRTG, +9.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Belinelli IN + Above (35 G, 25-10)

+9.8 SRS, +5.4 Offense, -4.8 Defense

Spoiler:

111.4 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +10.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leonard IN | No Control (64 G, 46-18)

+8.2 SRS, +3.5 Offense, -4.7 Defense

Spoiler:

109.5 ORTG, 101.2 DRTG, +8.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Leonard OUT | No Control (18 G, 9-9)

-0.1 SRS, +5.0 Offense, +4.3 Defense

Spoiler:

110.9 ORTG, 110.2 DRTG, +0.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leonard IN | Control for Everyone but Belinelli (52 G, 38-14)

+9.0 SRS, +3.7 Offense, -5.7 Defense

Spoiler:

109.8 ORTG, 100.6 DRTG, +9.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Leonard OUT | Control for Everyone but Belinelli (7 G, 4-3)

-0.4 SRS, +3.3 Offense, +2.5 Defense

Spoiler:

109.2 ORTG, 108.2 DRTG, +0.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Splitter IN | Everyone IN (22 G, 14-8)

+9.0 SRS, +4.1 Offense, -5.0 Defense

Spoiler:

110.5 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +9.1 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Splitter OUT | Everyone IN (13 G, 11-2)

+11.2 SRS, +7.6 Offense, -4.5 Defense

Spoiler:

112.9 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG, +12.1 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post Eye Injury (Jan. 16th Onwards) (42 G, 31-11)

+9.1 SRS, +5.0 Offense, -4.7 Defense

Spoiler:

110.8 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +9.7 Adjusted NetAdjusted Net

------------------------------

Post Eye Injury | Belinelli, Ginobili IN (27 G, 19-8)

+11.0 SRS, +6.0 Offense, -5.3 Defense

Spoiler:

112.2 ORTG, 101.5 DRTG, +11.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SideshowBob]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

[ceiling raiser]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

Maybe with Leonard out? Anything meaningful about Splitter?

Thanks as always for your research.

[bondom34]

Trying to do OKC now but it's become a mess with how many guys >25 MPG are in and out.

Obvious trends are still notable of course, trying my best to control for Ibaka, Adams, Kanter, etc:

OKC with Durant and Westbrook looked like a +5ish SRS team. Waiters presence however coinciding with them playing weaker at around +4.5, vs almost +6 without him. OKC with Westbrook and without Durant looked like a +3 SRS team. Without Waiters, roughly +4, with Waiters, dropped to +1.

Appreciate the work as well!

Honestly, part of me wonders how much can even be found for the OKC numbers. They had no real time at all with any reasonalbe stability. Under 20 games of WB/KD, the post all star stretch had Adams, Collison, Ibaka all missing at times, and the first month was a D League roster. I'm gonna guess lineups will be numerous and noise high.

[SideshowBob]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

Maybe with Leonard out? Anything meaningful about Splitter?

Thanks as always for your research.

of course

Avoided Splitter previously as he was under 20 MPG, but I've added him. Offense seems better without him. Leonard as expected shows up huge. Him and James are the two stars that I've got decent In/Out samples for and they both seem massive.

2015 San Antonio Spurs In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leonard IN | No Control (64 G, 46-18)

+8.2 SRS, +3.5 Offense, -4.7 Defense

Spoiler:

109.5 ORTG, 101.2 DRTG, +8.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Leonard OUT | No Control (18 G, 9-9)

-0.1 SRS, +5.0 Offense, +4.3 Defense

Spoiler:

110.9 ORTG, 110.2 DRTG, +0.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Leonard IN | Control for Everyone but Belinelli (52 G, 38-14)

+9.0 SRS, +3.7 Offense, -5.7 Defense

Spoiler:

109.8 ORTG, 100.6 DRTG, +9.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Leonard OUT | Control for Everyone but Belinelli (7 G, 4-3)

-0.4 SRS, +3.3 Offense, +2.5 Defense

Spoiler:

109.2 ORTG, 108.2 DRTG, +0.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Splitter IN | Everyone IN (22 G, 14-8)

+9.0 SRS, +4.1 Offense, -5.0 Defense

Spoiler:

110.5 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +9.1 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Splitter OUT | Everyone IN (13 G, 11-2)

+11.2 SRS, +7.6 Offense, -4.5 Defense

Spoiler:

112.9 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG, +12.1 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Dr Spaceman]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

Is there anyway you could post numbers for post-eye injury? I'd expect SAS to have an SRS closing in on +12 with everyone healthy since then. Thanks as always for these numbers.

[Dr Spaceman]

Lebron IN | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (33 G, 29-4)

+11.4 SRS, +11.0 Offense, -1.5 Defense

Spoiler:

116.6 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG, +12.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that third In/Out set (^^^) is essentially the "healthy"/post-break Lebron set. They managed to sustain higher than an 11 SRS despite the defense dropping off, Blatt resting the starters/Lebron in the 4th quarter (they straight up through a home game), coasting, etc. In the first 28 games of those 33, they were at a +13.4 SRS (25-3), last 5 they were at +0.2 SRS (4-1), so take that however you like.

Oh my.

I posted on my blog that I think that the post-LeBreak Cavs are playing better basketball than any Miami stretch save the 27 game streak. Would you say this is accurate? Those numbers are mind-boggling.

On NBA.com right now, Warriors starting 5 has a net rating of 19.6 while Cleveland's +Mozgov and Smith is at +19.3. Difference is Golden State's lineup with Iggy>Barnes is at +28.3 net rating . Cavs have no such trump card.

GSW/CLE straight clowning on the league. Excited to see how SAS looks post eye injury, as it seems that Parker and Diaw have really found themselves recently.

[SideshowBob]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

Is there anyway you could post numbers for post-eye injury? I'd expect SAS to have an SRS closing in on +12 with everyone healthy since then. Thanks as always for these numbers.

Sure. Remind me when that split would begin though

Lebron IN | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (33 G, 29-4)

+11.4 SRS, +11.0 Offense, -1.5 Defense

Spoiler:

116.6 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG, +12.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that third In/Out set (^^^) is essentially the "healthy"/post-break Lebron set. They managed to sustain higher than an 11 SRS despite the defense dropping off, Blatt resting the starters/Lebron in the 4th quarter (they straight up through a home game), coasting, etc. In the first 28 games of those 33, they were at a +13.4 SRS (25-3), last 5 they were at +0.2 SRS (4-1), so take that however you like.

Oh my.

I posted on my blog that I think that the post-LeBreak Cavs are playing better basketball than any Miami stretch save the 27 game streak. Would you say this is accurate? Those numbers are mind-boggling.

On NBA.com right now, Warriors starting 5 has a net rating of 19.6 while Cleveland's +Mozgov and Smith is at +19.3. Difference is Golden State's lineup with Iggy>Barnes is at +28.3 net rating . Cavs have no such trump card.

GSW/CLE straight clowning on the league. Excited to see how SAS looks post eye injury, as it seems that Parker and Diaw have really found themselves recently.

Oh no. Miami never played this good.

27 Game Winning Streak (27 G)

+10.32 SRS, +9.2 Offense, -2.4 Defense

With the season done, here's what I've got on Miami's performance, all adjusted for opponent strength.

Spoiler:

Full Season

Overall (82 G)

+7.03 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -0.3 Defense

With Lebron (76 G)

+7.45 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.6 Defense

With Lebron + Wade (68 G)

+7.36 SRS, +8.1 Offense, -0.3 Defense

With Big 3 (65 G)

+7.00 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.1 Defense

Since January 12th

Overall (48 G)

+9.01 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -1.0 Defense

With Lebron (42 G)

+10.05 SRS, +9.7 Offense, -1.5 Defense

With Lebron + Wade (38 G)

+9.84 SRS, +9.9 Offense, -0.8 Defense

With Big 3 (36 G)

+9.49 SRS, +9.5 Offense, -0.7 Defense

[Dr Spaceman]

Any other splits for SAS? LAC and Houston are next.

Is there anyway you could post numbers for post-eye injury? I'd expect SAS to have an SRS closing in on +12 with everyone healthy since then. Thanks as always for these numbers.

Sure. Remind me when that split would begin though

January 16th vs. Portland is when they got everyone back healthy.

Lebron IN | Irving, Love, Mozgov IN (33 G, 29-4)

+11.4 SRS, +11.0 Offense, -1.5 Defense

Spoiler:

116.6 ORTG, 103.4 DRTG, +12.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So that third In/Out set (^^^) is essentially the "healthy"/post-break Lebron set. They managed to sustain higher than an 11 SRS despite the defense dropping off, Blatt resting the starters/Lebron in the 4th quarter (they straight up through a home game), coasting, etc. In the first 28 games of those 33, they were at a +13.4 SRS (25-3), last 5 they were at +0.2 SRS (4-1), so take that however you like.

Oh my.

I posted on my blog that I think that the post-LeBreak Cavs are playing better basketball than any Miami stretch save the 27 game streak. Would you say this is accurate? Those numbers are mind-boggling.

On NBA.com right now, Warriors starting 5 has a net rating of 19.6 while Cleveland's +Mozgov and Smith is at +19.3. Difference is Golden State's lineup with Iggy>Barnes is at +28.3 net rating . Cavs have no such trump card.

GSW/CLE straight clowning on the league. Excited to see how SAS looks post eye injury, as it seems that Parker and Diaw have really found themselves recently.

Oh no. Miami never played this good.

27 Game Winning Streak (27 G)

+10.32 SRS, +9.2 Offense, -2.4 Defense

With the season done, here's what I've got on Miami's performance, all adjusted for opponent strength.

Spoiler:

Full Season

Overall (82 G)

+7.03 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -0.3 Defense

With Lebron (76 G)

+7.45 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.6 Defense

With Lebron + Wade (68 G)

+7.36 SRS, +8.1 Offense, -0.3 Defense

With Big 3 (65 G)

+7.00 SRS, +7.8 Offense, -0.1 Defense

Since January 12th

Overall (48 G)

+9.01 SRS, +8.9 Offense, -1.0 Defense

With Lebron (42 G)

+10.05 SRS, +9.7 Offense, -1.5 Defense

With Lebron + Wade (38 G)

+9.84 SRS, +9.9 Offense, -0.8 Defense

With Big 3 (36 G)

+9.49 SRS, +9.5 Offense, -0.7 Defense

Wow. That is... wow. I'm honestly unsure what to make of that. Is it just that this Cleveland team is a much better fit offensively or what? And what do you make of Love during this stretch? I mean, a lot of this has to be attributable to him, no?

[SideshowBob]

Is there anyway you could post numbers for post-eye injury? I'd expect SAS to have an SRS closing in on +12 with everyone healthy since then. Thanks as always for these numbers.

Sure. Remind me when that split would begin though

January 16th vs. Portland is when they got everyone back healthy.

2015 San Antonio Spurs In/Out

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post Eye Injury (Jan. 16th Onwards) (42 G, 31-11)

+9.1 SRS, +5.0 Offense, -4.7 Defense

Spoiler:

110.8 ORTG, 101.6 DRTG, +9.7 Adjusted NetAdjusted Net

------------------------------

Post Eye Injury | Belinelli, Ginobili IN (27 G, 19-8)

+11.0 SRS, +6.0 Offense, -5.3 Defense

Spoiler:

112.2 ORTG, 101.5 DRTG, +11.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SideshowBob]

Wow. That is... wow. I'm honestly unsure what to make of that. Is it just that this Cleveland team is a much better fit offensively or what? And what do you make of Love during this stretch? I mean, a lot of this has to be attributable to him, no?

Cleveland fits better, and more talent as well. Lebron since the return has been quietly playing at an ATG level (I expect his impact in the stretch since his return in has been stronger than any other full year of his career), Love has struggled but his presence is felt, he really makes defenses pay for the way they cover Lebron, Kyrie's been really excellent at taking advantages of holes in the defense in semi-transition and his ability to pullup from beyond the arc is invaluable, Lebron always does well with any PnR finishers; Varejao, Hickson, Birdman, now Mozgov who might be better than any of them considering he's got a size advantage and is better at hitting that 10-15 footer, Smith has been making a **** ton of 3s and has been EXCELLENT at moving the ball, despite his reputation (this is such a huge upgrade over Waiters), PLUS Mozgov inside has lead to a shift in Cleveland's defensive strategy to becoming drop-heavy instead of show-heavy which takes so much pressure off of Lebron to focus on offense and single/weakside coverage.

What's remarkable is that they still have major weaknesses. The defense is inconsistent and falls off a cliff when Lebron's not on the floor, the team lacks talent and discipline outside of Mozgov/James. Their depth isn't perfect, they still rely on ~85% talent/15% system to get them through right now, give it another year or so, once that shifts in the other direction and they get time to cover their holes they'll look even better.

EDIT: Also meant to mention that 13/14 Heat were literally all time bad offensive rebounding teams. Cleveland being 6th in the league is a dramatic difference, it covers a lot of ground.

[ardee]

Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?

[Quotatious]

Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Agreed.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?

Or better yet - would the Thunder finish the season with a better record if you replaced Westbrook with Leonard? IMO they wouldn't even win 35 games, while Westbrook on the Spurs, as bad of a fit as it seems, probably makes them even stronger than they actually are.

[ardee]

My ballot so far:

1. Steph Curry
2. James Harden
3. Chris Paul
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Anthony Davis
6. LeBron James

HM: Blake, Cousins, Aldridge, Irving, Marc

LeBron can absolutely move up. But I just don't see that crazy post-injury stretch that people speak of. His numbers are identical before and after. I credit the Cavs' improvement more to the Mozgov trade and better chemistry.

[ardee]

Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Agreed.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?

Or better yet - would the Thunder finish the season with a better record if you replaced Westbrook with Leonard? IMO they wouldn't even win 35 games, while Westbrook on the Spurs, as bad of a fit as it seems, probably makes them even stronger than they actually are.

Augistin-Waiters-Kawhi-Kanter-Adams.... Yuck. Just yuck. All I can say.

Forget Westbrook, Spurs would be absolute title favorites with DMC for example on the team. Can you imagine him with Duncan to cover up his mistakes and spacing from Green, Mills, etc., Splitter backing him up, and Manu/Parker getting him easy buckets?

[Dr Spaceman]

Man I can't believe Kawhi is getting mentioned here.

Simple question.

If you replaced Blake or DeMarcus with Kawhi, do you think the Clippers or Kings would get better?

Yes.