'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[lorak]

Zach Lowe's awards:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15186679/nba-awards-ballot-part-1

Team insiders don't like RPM (but I wonder who they are, because if they are from LAL or SAC, then who cares).

[bondom34]

Advanced numbers are still against him but I'm starting to lean toward bumping Kanter up on my 6th man after seeing him the last few weeks, at least to 2nd. He's the only reliable offense off the bench a lot of games, and has been playing pretty well even against stronger competition of late. I like Barton and Davis too, I'm struggling w/ Iggy due to fewer games played.

[PaulieWal]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

[MisterHibachi]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

[PaulieWal]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

Because I think Westbrook has been better? Lol...

But seriously their numbers are close enough with slight edge to Westy except for RAPM. When both are ON the court Westbrook's team does slightly better than CP's. I think Westbrook has been playing with an intensity unmatched and the havoc that he creates with his driving opens up things for OKC. Not to even mention the playmaking which has gotten better every year and the crazy rebounding. Defensively I do think Westbrook needs to be more consistent but overall I'd take Westbrook so far over CP.

Why do you have CP over Westbrook?

[RSCD3_]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

Because I think Westbrook has been better? Lol...

But seriously their numbers are close enough with slight edge to Westy except for RAPM. When both are ON the court Westbrook's team does slightly better than CP's. I think Westbrook has been playing with an intensity unmatched and the havoc that he creates with his driving opens up things for OKC. Not to even mention the playmaking which has gotten better every year and the crazy rebounding. Defensively I do think Westbrook needs to be more consistent but overall I'd take Westbrook so far over CP.

Why do you have CP over Westbrook?

Would you rate their supporting casts as equal or do you see a difference in quality relatively equal to the difference in impact?

[SideshowBob]

Since this will become the unofficial playoff thread I think we can start spring-boarding some discussion.

Anyone foresee any dominant early round runs? In recent years, through rounds 1-2, Cleveland in 2009 won 8 straight games by double-digit margins (+16.8 avg), Orlando in 2010 won 8 straight by an average margin of +17.2, and San Antonio in 2012 won 8 straight games w/average margin of +13.7 (and then actually proceeded to win 2 more consecutive in the WCF). None of these teams won a title though and in fact all three failed to make the finals.

[RSCD3_]

Since this will become the unofficial playoff thread I think we can start spring-boarding some discussion.

Anyone foresee any dominant early round runs? In recent years, through rounds 1-2, Cleveland in 2009 won 8 straight games by double-digit margins (+16.8 avg), Orlando in 2010 won 8 straight by an average margin of +17.2, and San Antonio in 2012 won 8 straight games w/average margin of +13.7 (and then actually proceeded to win 2 more consecutive in the WCF). None of these teams won a title though and in fact all three failed to make the finals.

When all the seeds are determined I'm gonna keep an updated Performance Index like I did with my other thread

( I'll try to continue that one after school but Im way too busy right now. )

[MisterHibachi]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

Because I think Westbrook has been better? Lol...

But seriously their numbers are close enough with slight edge to Westy except for RAPM. When both are ON the court Westbrook's team does slightly better than CP's. I think Westbrook has been playing with an intensity unmatched and the havoc that he creates with his driving opens up things for OKC. Not to even mention the playmaking which has gotten better every year and the crazy rebounding. Defensively I do think Westbrook needs to be more consistent but overall I'd take Westbrook so far over CP.

Why do you have CP over Westbrook?

I don't necessary have CP over Westbrook, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for the level the Clippers played at without Griffin, perhaps enough to put him over Westbrook (to be clear, I'm thinking more in the context of first team all-nab than POY ballot). And reading your original post that I quoted again, I see that you didn't say CP is definitely below that group. I was questioning why you would have him below that group. Just a misunderstanding.

[HeartBreakKid]

Today is the last day of the RS. I will be honest I have no idea who the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best guys are in the league. To me Curry is #1 easily for now and then some combination of LBJ/GOAT/KD/Kawhi with CP right there. Usually we have a better idea of which player is where but I will be depending on the PS this year more than usual to determine my rankings. Curry is almost a lock for #1 barring an injury/massive decline in performance.

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

Because I think Westbrook has been better? Lol...

But seriously their numbers are close enough with slight edge to Westy except for RAPM. When both are ON the court Westbrook's team does slightly better than CP's. I think Westbrook has been playing with an intensity unmatched and the havoc that he creates with his driving opens up things for OKC. Not to even mention the playmaking which has gotten better every year and the crazy rebounding. Defensively I do think Westbrook needs to be more consistent but overall I'd take Westbrook so far over CP.

Why do you have CP over Westbrook?

I mean Westbrook's team is better, so that would make some sense.

[MyUniBroDavis]

How would you rank their top 5 on each end past the 1st spot (Curry #1 for O, Green #1 for D)?

Hm tough call. Without looking at splits:

Offense
2) Thompson
3) Green
4) Iguodala
5) Barnes

Defense
2) Bogut
3) Iguodala
4-5) I'm not sure if Thompson has separated himself on a meaningful level from Barnes (who guards the smallball 4 well), though I don't care about one-on-one man defense all that much (which is Thompson's 'strength')

Livingston looks more comfortable this year but I'm not sure if he can crack the top 5 in either.

Actually, Curry's argument is stronger than Livingston's or Klay's on defense although I'm sure this remains an unpopular opinion. Curry's DFG% is more impressive. He ranks extremely good in player tracking data provided by Synergy and consequently ahead of Klay and Livingston. He is comfortably ahead in DRAPM, DRPM - although there are some collinearity-issues, sure - and has the edge in box score based defensive metric albeit they are horrible when it comes to evaluating defense imo, hence I'll never use them in my evaluation. Not to mention that Curry's defense looks quite impressive to the eye as well. The tendency of many people - and I want to emphasize that I don't mean you in particular - to rank Livingston and Klay ahead of Curry on defense is probably based on a mix of their physical traits and recent history.

Regardless of where Curry ranks, I believe some overvalue what Livingston brings to the table on defense. He is long which makes him a great asset to have in line-ups with Curry and Klay but as an individual defender, Shaun isn't that impressive to me. He struggles against quick PGs, has a tendency to defend shooters ineffectively at times (either fouling the shooter or not contesting effectively, something his DFG% supports as well) and gets burned in the PnR regularly (ranks in the 12.5 percentile in guarding the ball handler for instance). I don't see any viable argument for Shaun here.

Klay is a different case. He can be a great defender whenever he's matched up against smaller guards in particular. His on-ball defense is consistently good, although I wouldn't say it's consistently great - he's clearly someone who excels in certain match-ups but isn't special against other players. He doesn't play off the ball as effective as Curry, though. Also, I wouldn't necessarily say Klay's on-ball defense is more impressive than Curry's overall. What I'll say is that he can reach a level as an on-ball defender that Curry can't but this shut-down defense happens only for a limited amount of time. Even if you prefer Klay on defense, the gap is by no means big.

Barnes' case is interesting, to say the least. He rightfully gets credit for being able to defend PFs in the ultra-effective small ball line-up and this makes him valuable to the Warriors. As an individual defender, however, I see him as merely average. Being average on defense against SFs and against PFs alike makes you valuable - but does it make you good? This is where we can see a discrepancy in terms of individual goodness and impact, as he's unimpressive in both cases, and value to the team as average defense at these two positions allows the team to smoothly switch to special line-ups, especially given the fact that he can spread the floor well as a PF (so it's actually the combination of offense and defense from the PF spot which makes him important in our SBDS, not his ability to hold his own against most PFs on defense alone).

My opinion on his defense

He seems like a good man to man defender, who is agile enough/puts enough effort to get through screens, isn't afraid to use his chest to defend drives, and generally has good "man positioning" if that makes sense (the way he sets up to defend is good, some players get that wrong cough cough harden). A strong core and a strong base developed for shooting means that when a player drives and bumps into him, he can usually stand his ground, and in the post he is deceptively strong because of this as well.

While box score metrics on defense aren't gospel by any means, he is good at forcing turnovers, getting into passing lanes, and getting steals. The way he usually steals the ball (kind of jumping into passing lanes to swipe it when it looks like an open pass) is important to me because often times if he doesent get the ball it's. An easy 2 points. (The pass is usually going to a big man under the rim, curry is good at reading when there's an opening and blocking it just in time)

Generally, he is good at moving through screens

When defending the post he is sneaky and uses his quick hands to poke the ball away. Sometimes I don't like how his hands are at his chest when defending drives, If that makes sense, but he is Improving on that. Falls for pump fakes too often imo but it's nothing horrible. Has this "omg it's steph" when he guards threes it seems

Play type stats support this as well. He is the 4th best isolation defender on the Warriors, with a clear separation between him and Thompson. (On a side note, in this "cold stretch" he has noticeably ISOd a lot more. And yes, he has generally done great in isos.

Despite everyone saying "just post the little guy up" with his deceptive strength and quick hands he is 3rd on the Warriors in post up defense in ppp. He forces the second most turnovers, forcing 21.2% of the post ups against him into turnovers.generally has about the same amount of possessions as his other guard teammates.

Generally a top 3-5 on his team and solid at "off ball" plays.

I didn't see ball handler since my iPad is spazzing out but overall I'd say he is a solid defender

(But he is short athletic and looks white so that isn't possible)

[SideshowBob]

2016 San Antonio Spurs In/Out Splits (82 G, 67-15)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have 36 games of Aldridge, Leonard, Duncan, Green, Parker, Diaw, Ginobili, Mills & West. I will first list these 36 games and then post samples of individual players removed from this group.

Feel free to let me know if you're looking for anything specific, or any suggestions for splits.

------------------------------------------------------------

Aldridge, Diaw, Duncna, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Mills, Parker, West IN IN | (36 G, 29-7)

+12.33 SRS, +4.1 Offense, -9.7 Defense

110.1 ORTG, 97.4 DRTG, +13.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Duncan OUT | (8 G, 6-2)

+7.72 SRS, +5.9 Offense, -3.7 Defense

113.1 ORTG, 103.6 DRTG, +9.6 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Ginobili OUT | (6 G, 5-1)

+9.49 SRS, +0.1 Offense, -8.9 Defense

107.5 ORTG, 97.3 DRTG, +9.0 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SideshowBob]

2016 Golden State Warriors In/Out Splits (82 G, 73-9)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have 39 games of Curry, Green, Klay, Iggy, Bogut, & Barnes. I will list post these 39 games first and then post samples of individual players removed from this group.

------------------------------------------------------------

Barnes, Bogut, Curry, Green, Iggy, Klay IN | (39 G, 36-3)

+13.19 SRS, +10.9 Offense, -2.3 Defense

117.2 ORTG, 104.5 DRTG, +13.1 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Iggy OUT | (13 G, 11-2)

+5.32 SRS, +7.0 Offense, +0.7 Defense

114.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +6.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Barnes OUT | (12 G, 11-1)

+9.02 SRS, +7.2 Offense, -2.4 Defense

114.0 ORTG, 103.1 DRTG, +9.6 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Bogut OUT | (8 G, 8-0)

+14.70, +6.7 Offense, -7.2 Defense

113.9 ORTG, 99.5 DRTG, +13.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[SideshowBob]

2016 Cleveland Cavaliers Coaching Splits (82 G, 57-25)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

David Blatt IN | (41 G, 30-11)

+5.35 SRS, +2.3 Offense, -3.1 Defense

108.9 ORTG, 102.8 DRTG, +5.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

David Blatt IN | Lebron IN | (40 G, 30-10)

+5.75 SRS, +2.7 Offense, -3.2 Defense

109.3 ORTG, 102.7 DRTG, +5.9 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

David Blatt IN | Lebron, Love, Irving IN | (15 G, 12-3)

+8.53 SRS, +5.9 Offense, -2.8 Defense

112.5 ORTG, 103.7 DRTG, +5.9 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tyron Lue IN | (41 G, 27-14)

+5.52 SRS, +8.0 Offense, +1.7 Defense

114.2 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG, +6.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Tyron Lue IN | Lebron IN | (36 G, 26-10)

+7.29 SRS, +8.9 Offense, +0.7 Defense

115.1 ORTG, 106.4 DRTG, +5.9 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Tyron Lue IN | Lebron, Love, Irving IN | (30 G, 20-10)

+5.89 SRS, +7.9 Offense, +1.4 Defense

113.8 ORTG, 107.2 DRTG, +6.5 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2016 Cleveland Cavaliers In/Out Splits (82 G, 57-25)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT | (6 G, 1-5)

-7.77 SRS, -0.6 Offense, +7.5 Defense

105.0 ORTG, 113.7 DRTG, -8.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Lebron IN | (76 G, 56-20)

+6.48 SRS, +5.6 Offense, -1.3 Defense

112.1 ORTG, 104.5 DRTG, +7.0 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------

Irving, Love IN | Lebron OUT | (4 G, 1-3)

-7.89 SRS, +1.6 Offense, +10.0 Defense

107.5 ORTG, 116.2 DRTG, -8.4 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Irving, Love IN | Lebron IN | (45 G, 32-13)

+6.77 SRS, +7.2 Offense, +0.0 Defense

113.4 ORTG, 106.1 DRTG, +7.2 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Doctor MJ]

Zach Lowe's awards:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15186679/nba-awards-ballot-part-1

Team insiders don't like RPM (but I wonder who they are, because if they are from LAL or SAC, then who cares).

It's really frustrating as a fan that we don't have access to the same data as the teams now that we're in this age that things like SportsVU exists.

[Doctor MJ]

Why do you have Westbrook over CP?

Because I think Westbrook has been better? Lol...

But seriously their numbers are close enough with slight edge to Westy except for RAPM. When both are ON the court Westbrook's team does slightly better than CP's. I think Westbrook has been playing with an intensity unmatched and the havoc that he creates with his driving opens up things for OKC. Not to even mention the playmaking which has gotten better every year and the crazy rebounding. Defensively I do think Westbrook needs to be more consistent but overall I'd take Westbrook so far over CP.

Why do you have CP over Westbrook?

I mean Westbrook's team is better, so that would make some sense.

And so is Durant's oddly enough.

[Clyde Frazier]

Zach Lowe's awards:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15186679/nba-awards-ballot-part-1

Team insiders don't like RPM (but I wonder who they are, because if they are from LAL or SAC, then who cares).

It's really frustrating as a fan that we don't have access to the same data as the teams now that we're in this age that things like SportsVU exists.

Timely:

For the first time, the NBA will track a new batch of "hustle stats" in the playoffs and post them online within hours of the end of every game, league officials told ESPN.com.

The NBA tried this in a pilot program at Las Vegas Summer League last season and distributed the numbers to media and teams there. The reaction was positive, and the NBA decided to compile the stats in games that count.

"We decided to take this to the next level," said Evan Wasch, the NBA's senior vice president of basketball strategy and analytics.

The league will track how often defenders contest 2- and 3-point shots, deflections by defensive players, charges taken, which players recover loose balls, and so-called "screen assists," which the league defines as picks that lead directly to a made field goal attempt by a teammate. The "screen assist" category will not include picks that result in a teammate drawing a shooting foul or that free up someone for a shot one or two passes down the chain, officials said.

Fans will be able to monitor rankings in each category through the playoffs -- the first time we'll really get public confirmation that, say, Draymond Green tears away an unusual number of loose balls. "It's another way for us to engage fans," Wasch said.

Spoiler:

League-appointed scorekeepers tabulated the hustle stats on-site in Vegas. This time around, the league will staff the replay center in Secaucus, New Jersey, with trained personnel counting hustle stats via video.

It is somewhat ironic that the quest for advanced stats is leading everyone back to basics. Most teams track some of these stats, and perhaps all of them, on their own -- in ways both basic and mega-advanced. Assistant coaches count deflections during games, and will also grade defenders, often in real time, on whether they execute the team's defensive game plan -- including properly contesting jump shots.

Meanwhile, officials in the analytics department can verify those numbers using visual data from SportVU cameras that monitor every movement on the court at a rate of 25 frames per second. Teams that invested in SportVU early and committed resources to it have since built sophisticated models to track and grade almost every player action imaginable and can place those numbers within the larger context of team schemes, league trends and player salaries.

But fans don't get to see that stuff, and the hustle stats will give everyone an interesting window into the kind of beyond-the-box-score data that teams value. That information means more fodder for debate and more tweetable nuggets -- the social media noise on which the league thrives.

Plus, categorizing all these stats for every team will allow coaches to check the tendencies of opponents instead of just counting deflections and contested shots for their own teams, Wasch said. The SportVU cameras handle some of that, but they can't yet tell if a defensive player approaching a shooter has his hands up, or even if he's facing the right way. The Secaucus-based monitors will be able to see all that, and will award contested-shot hustle points accordingly, Wasch said.

Fans and media might have to dig just one layer deeper in some cases to parse those numbers. If during a postseason series one player defends a non-shooter, he will record fewer contested shots than a teammate chasing Kyle Korver around. Even so, the league believes that more data is better, and that fans will enjoy seeing it.

The league is also launching a new "defensive hub" on its website -- a portal where fans can sift through every defense-based stat that the league will make public. Some of those might be new. "The more data we collect," Wasch said, "the more we want to disseminate."

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15203926/nba-track-hustle-stats-playoffs-first

[SideshowBob]

For the first time, the NBA will track a new batch of "hustle stats" in the playoffs and post them online within hours of the end of every game, league officials told ESPN.com.

The NBA tried this in a pilot program at Las Vegas Summer League last season and distributed the numbers to media and teams there. The reaction was positive, and the NBA decided to compile the stats in games that count.

"We decided to take this to the next level," said Evan Wasch, the NBA's senior vice president of basketball strategy and analytics.

The league will track how often defenders contest 2- and 3-point shots, deflections by defensive players, charges taken, which players recover loose balls, and so-called "screen assists," which the league defines as picks that lead directly to a made field goal attempt by a teammate. The "screen assist" category will not include picks that result in a teammate drawing a shooting foul or that free up someone for a shot one or two passes down the chain, officials said.

Fans will be able to monitor rankings in each category through the playoffs -- the first time we'll really get public confirmation that, say, Draymond Green tears away an unusual number of loose balls. "It's another way for us to engage fans," Wasch said.

Spoiler:

League-appointed scorekeepers tabulated the hustle stats on-site in Vegas. This time around, the league will staff the replay center in Secaucus, New Jersey, with trained personnel counting hustle stats via video.

It is somewhat ironic that the quest for advanced stats is leading everyone back to basics. Most teams track some of these stats, and perhaps all of them, on their own -- in ways both basic and mega-advanced. Assistant coaches count deflections during games, and will also grade defenders, often in real time, on whether they execute the team's defensive game plan -- including properly contesting jump shots.

Meanwhile, officials in the analytics department can verify those numbers using visual data from SportVU cameras that monitor every movement on the court at a rate of 25 frames per second. Teams that invested in SportVU early and committed resources to it have since built sophisticated models to track and grade almost every player action imaginable and can place those numbers within the larger context of team schemes, league trends and player salaries.

But fans don't get to see that stuff, and the hustle stats will give everyone an interesting window into the kind of beyond-the-box-score data that teams value. That information means more fodder for debate and more tweetable nuggets -- the social media noise on which the league thrives.

Plus, categorizing all these stats for every team will allow coaches to check the tendencies of opponents instead of just counting deflections and contested shots for their own teams, Wasch said. The SportVU cameras handle some of that, but they can't yet tell if a defensive player approaching a shooter has his hands up, or even if he's facing the right way. The Secaucus-based monitors will be able to see all that, and will award contested-shot hustle points accordingly, Wasch said.

Fans and media might have to dig just one layer deeper in some cases to parse those numbers. If during a postseason series one player defends a non-shooter, he will record fewer contested shots than a teammate chasing Kyle Korver around. Even so, the league believes that more data is better, and that fans will enjoy seeing it.

The league is also launching a new "defensive hub" on its website -- a portal where fans can sift through every defense-based stat that the league will make public. Some of those might be new. "The more data we collect," Wasch said, "the more we want to disseminate."

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15203926/nba-track-hustle-stats-playoffs-first

This is pretty awesome! I feel like calling them "hustle stats" is a little bit marginalizing. When we're all getting into the "impact" and "beyond box-score" discussions, these things are largely what we're all on about, collectively speaking. Obviously there are certain things that are really difficult to track & quantify (spacing/positioning/defensive reading and awareness/defensive intimidation/etc.) but having these made available is just one step closer.

[SideshowBob]

Discouraging early reaction on the GB: NBA introduces "hustle stats" using SportVu data for playoffs.

Also, it was mentioned that it would be a single "hustle" number. Hope that's not the case, I'd much rather have as many categories as possible.

[bondom34]

Discouraging early reaction on the GB: NBA introduces "hustle stats" using SportVu data for playoffs.

Also, it was mentioned that it would be a single "hustle" number. Hope that's not the case, I'd much rather have as many categories as possible.

Gen board generally not for intelligent discussion.