Trade Talk (Part 18): Early Season Panic Edition

[BlacJacMac]

Again Dilly and TSJ would be available as trade value (you can send them wherever or keep them. Presumably they would want to load up on bad salary for assets. TSJ has some prospect value and Dilly has both prospect value and money attached. The point I was making is that Rollins will spend 3 years developing in the tank and making next to nothing and he will want money. But at that point he will be 26 and looking for serious cash. Maybe the Bucks say screw it and see how well he develops, or maybe they move on from him. The cornerstone was Gobert for Turner.

I get that you think Turner is the cornerstone, but IMO, its Rollins. A 23 year-old that could be Ant's running mate for the next decade.

But my other point is TSJ and Dilly aren't near enough value to get you Rollins.

Rudy > Turner. Rudy + Dilly + TSJ is < Turner and Rollins. What do you need to add to that equation to balance it?

I disagree with your math.

Rudy is definitely a better rebounder and a better defender.

Myles is still a really good defender and a much better offensive player.

Rudy is much harder to build around.

Turner makes significantly less money.

Rudy is 4 years older.

All things considered, they probably have similar value.

IF Rudy is better, its not nearly as much of a chasm as the one between Rollins and Dilly + TSJ.

Rollins looks like a young 2-way star at a premiere position. You're going to have to vastly overpay to get the Bucks to move him. Going from Turner to Gobert is not that vast overpay.

And again, I think outside of a Giannis for KAT/Bridges/whatever trade, I don't see the Bucks having any interest in Gobert. Definitely not if they're tanking like you suggest.

[winforlose]

I get that you think Turner is the cornerstone, but IMO, its Rollins. A 23 year-old that could be Ant's running mate for the next decade.

But my other point is TSJ and Dilly aren't near enough value to get you Rollins.

Rudy > Turner. Rudy + Dilly + TSJ is < Turner and Rollins. What do you need to add to that equation to balance it?

I disagree with your math.

Rudy is definitely a better rebounder and a better defender.

Myles is still a really good defender and a much better offensive player.

Rudy is much harder to build around.

Turner makes significantly less money.

Rudy is 4 years older.

All things considered, they probably have similar value.

IF Rudy is better, its not nearly as much of a chasm as the one between Rollins and Dilly + TSJ.

Rollins looks like a young 2-way star at a premiere position. You're going to have to vastly overpay to get the Bucks to move him. Going from Turner to Gobert is not that vast overpay.

And again, I think outside of a Giannis for KAT/Bridges/whatever trade, I don't see the Bucks having any interest in Gobert. Definitely not if they're tanking like you suggest.

How many times do I have say it, this includes 3 team trades with Rudy’s value paying for Turner and the 3rd team paying the Bucks. Or they could trade to stay competitive in which case Bridges/KAT/Rudy might intrigue the Bucks (though with the money I REALLY DOUBT IT.) Far more likely they blow it up, Rudy goes else where and they sell high on Turner.

As for your claim about Turner and Rudy’s relative value, Rudy has more short term win now value to some teams than Turner. Turner fits a style of play as does Rudy.

[shrink]

Not a sexy option but what about the idea of a deal based around DDV + filler(Miller + Ingles?) for Mitchell Robinson and Tyler Kolek?

Robinson is a stop gap expiring that solidifies the center rotation providing better defense than the Randle/Reid combo while being possibly the best rebounder in the league.

Kolek provides another natural point guard that sets the table and protects the ball while being more ready than Dilly at the moment and a better point guard than DDV. Doesn't solve the starting point guard issue but he is some I believe he could be a solid bench guard for years if given the opportunity when his jump shot comes around. Already one of the better passers I have seen in the league.

DiVincenzo seems comfortable in MIN finally, and is playing like he did as a starter for the Knicks. He’s #9 in three pointers in the NBA, and he provides a counterbalance on the floor, and on the cap sheet (two cheap years), for Rudy Gobert.

I’m not opposed to trading him back to the Knicks, but it would take a much better offer than this.

[Norseman79]

Here is the thing, if the trade we make isn't somehow going to bring in a proven starter, why make a trade?

[BlacJacMac]

Here is the thing, if the trade we make isn't somehow going to bring in a proven starter, why make a trade?

Because our bench kind of stinks?

[Norseman79]

Here is the thing, if the trade we make isn't somehow going to bring in a proven starter, why make a trade?

Because our bench kind of stinks?

You aren't wrong.
But....
Jaylen Clark is hitting around 38% from 3.
TSJ is bout 39% from 3.
(And neither of these two are being used great or with a viable point guard)
Naz Reid is evening out a bit lately.
...
So whose fault is the bench?

If DD, Rob or Randle can bring back a starting PG, a backup pg, and a back up 5 it makes sense.

[minimus]

Here is the thing, if the trade we make isn't somehow going to bring in a proven starter, why make a trade?

Because our bench kind of stinks?

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[minimus]

After Dec.15th

BRO IN: Gobert, Tyus Jones
BRO OUT: MPJ

Why for BRO: re-invest massive MPJ contact in Gobert, give all MPJs possessions to young PGs (Saraf, Traore), Danny Wolf and Dёmin

ORL IN: MPJ, DDV
ORL OUT: Suggs, Bitadze

Why for ORL: get a massive expiring contract for next season. Add a lot of firepower

WCJ/Isaac + M.Wagner
Banchero/F.Wagner/Penda
F.Wagner/MPJ/Da Silva
Bane/DDV/Howard
Black/Richardson

MIN IN: Gobert, DDV
MIN OUT: Suggs, Bitadze

Why for MIN: get starting PG in Suggs, temporary starting C and backup defensive minded bigman. Create room to re-sign Clark.

Bitadze/Reid/Beringer + Zikarsky
Randle/McDaniels/Miller
McDaniels/TJ/Clark + Juzang
Edwards/Clark
Suggs/Dillingham/Conley + Hyland

[Domejandro]

I can’t overstate how much worse Minnesota becomes in effectively every trade scenario involving Rudy Gobert. Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s best player, but the team craters when he leaves the court.

[minimus]

I can’t overstate how much worse Minnesota becomes in effectively every trade scenario involving Rudy Gobert. Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s best player, but the team craters when he leaves the court.

Gobert is so important, because MIN don't have backup C. But. Bitadze has all tools to become a starting center in MIN. IMO in MIN he can be an elite defensive force playing next to McDaniels, Clark. And in my scenario if we bring Suggs, then this trio (Suggs, McDaniels, Clark) would make opponents life a hell. Not to mention Bitadze is much, much better offensive player than Rudy.

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[FrenchMinnyFan]

Rudy is still a top 3 defender in the NBA. Yes he is getting older but trading him will be a huge step back. We are working well transforming the team in a better offensive one without hurting too much defense level. This is a balance hard to find and this could be just throw without Rudy.

[Guest84]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but I’m starting to see more outlets mention James Harden as a potential trade target for the wolves. Also more steam about Randle being moved as well.

[KGdaBom]

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but I’m starting to see more outlets mention James Harden as a potential trade target for the wolves. Also more steam about Randle being moved as well.

Harden would be an all in move to win this year. Maybe next. I wouldn't do it.

[minimus]

Rudy is still a top 3 defender in the NBA. Yes he is getting older but trading him will be a huge step back. We are working well transforming the team in a better offensive one without hurting too much defense level. This is a balance hard to find and this could be just throw without Rudy.

I get it. Rudy is indeed a top-3 drop coverage defender in the NBA. But… Does he offer any kind of defensive versatility? And where does he rank offensively among current NBA bigs? I’m not talking about shooting threes — which I personally think is the most overrated skill for a big man. I do value his screens a lot — they’ve been essential for the shooting leap Edwards has made. But how does Rudy stack up as:
- a passer? (Though he’s improved a lot this season.)
- a rim runner?
- a 50/50 ball hustle guy?

We’ve already seen Finch win key games with Rudy on the bench in crunch time. So… what if you get a big who isn’t a top-3 drop defender (although Bitadze might be top-10 — ORL ranked top-2 in defensive rating the last two years), but who is still top-15 and has a more balanced skillset? That could allow MIN to run a more versatile offense and defense — especially at 1/4 the price of Rudy.

[winforlose]

I can’t overstate how much worse Minnesota becomes in effectively every trade scenario involving Rudy Gobert. Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s best player, but the team craters when he leaves the court.

Two things can be true at once. It can be true that the team craters when Rudy is off the floor, and that a lack of a backup C can explain the effect. If you got someone who is a capable defender and rebounder, (not elite like Rudy,) the drop will be less substantial. Simultaneously, the offense will function better with a 5 out big who can space the floor and run.

TLDR: You are correct we need a C but you are incorrect that only Rudy can be that C.

[Klomp]

I can’t overstate how much worse Minnesota becomes in effectively every trade scenario involving Rudy Gobert. Anthony Edwards is Minnesota’s best player, but the team craters when he leaves the court.

I think part of it is an understanding that the team would have to change its identity. Yes, the defense craters when he's not on the court but the offense also oftentimes levels up at the same time.

[shangrila]

While I understand what winforlose is driving at with Turner, I think he's underselling the downgrade on his defence.

In terms of rim protection, Gobert has been one of the best this year. According to NBA.com Rudy is averaging 45.6% DFG% on 6.5 attempts per game (so he's defending 6.5 attempts at the rim and allowing that percentage). It's the best mark for any C averaging over 5 DFGA per game. Turner, on the other hand, is defending 7 DFGA and allowing 61%. So while Turner's block% is technically higher (5.6 vs 4.4) he's nowhere near as effective at rim protection. For further reference it's also a worse % than Randle allows, although he only defends 4.5 DFGA.

Rebounding is also in Rudy's favour. While the defensive rebounding is similar (with a decent edge to Rudy), offensive rebounding is firmly in Rudy's favour. And given our issues with rebounding as a whole it's something that needs to be considered.



The real prize player to go after is Isaiah Stewart. Despite being undersized he's got an over 8% BLK%, only allows 44.7% on DFG% (less attempts then we've been talking about at only 4.2, but he also plays less minutes and I don't believe NBA.com has any per36 or per100 possessions stats for these numbers) and offensively is at over 40% from 3. You could play him next to either Rudy or Naz and he fits the timeline perfectly at 24 years old, plus he's on like 15mil a season for another 2 years.

If we made a Randle trade with Detroit and walked away with Beef Stew as the main piece I'd be happy. It wouldn't be a sexy option, but it would be the ridiculously effective one.

[shrink]

I must have missed this last month, but a recent podcast mentioned this

One of the best players in the world today is Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. “The Greek Freak” is a hard man to impress, but he sure made an honest admission about Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In an interview with Harris Stavrou of Greek outlet Sport24 on September 23, Antetokounmpo discussed a variety of topics about the NBA and international basketball. He was talking about the preferences of basketball fans while also explaining the kind of player he likes, including “Ant-Man.”

“My preference has always been to see a player who will not only be a good player, but will also be an example for his teammates in behavior. It’s not enough to just score baskets. To be a leader, it also counts in the locker room how you are and on the bus, and when you eat as a team, how you are, how you behave. Anyway, whoever has the best year will be the best player. My preference is two-way players. I like one player, Anthony Edwards. I like him a lot,” Antetokounmpo said.

https://heavy.com/sports/nba/milwaukee-bucks/giannis-antetokounmpo-admission-anthony-edwards/

Giannis will be turning 31, but as one of the four best players in the NBA and an MVP candidate, he is probably worth more in trade than MIN has, if Ant is not in the offer. That said, MIL will likely try to send Giannis to a team where he wants to go. And unlike many American stars, Euros are often happy with whatever city they start in, and Minneapolis is close to Milwaukee, so he might not have biases against us. Still, I think there is virtually no chance, but it isn’t impossible.

[BlacJacMac]

The real prize player to go after is Isaiah Stewart. Despite being undersized he's got an over 8% BLK%, only allows 44.7% on DFG% (less attempts then we've been talking about at only 4.2, but he also plays less minutes and I don't believe NBA.com has any per36 or per100 possessions stats for these numbers) and offensively is at over 40% from 3. You could play him next to either Rudy or Naz and he fits the timeline perfectly at 24 years old, plus he's on like 15mil a season for another 2 years.

If we made a Randle trade with Detroit and walked away with Beef Stew as the main piece I'd be happy. It wouldn't be a sexy option, but it would be the ridiculously effective one.

He'd also add some much needed toughness and attitude to the roster.

[Klomp]

I must have missed this last month, but a recent podcast mentioned this

One of the best players in the world today is Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. “The Greek Freak” is a hard man to impress, but he sure made an honest admission about Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

In an interview with Harris Stavrou of Greek outlet Sport24 on September 23, Antetokounmpo discussed a variety of topics about the NBA and international basketball. He was talking about the preferences of basketball fans while also explaining the kind of player he likes, including “Ant-Man.”

“My preference has always been to see a player who will not only be a good player, but will also be an example for his teammates in behavior. It’s not enough to just score baskets. To be a leader, it also counts in the locker room how you are and on the bus, and when you eat as a team, how you are, how you behave. Anyway, whoever has the best year will be the best player. My preference is two-way players. I like one player, Anthony Edwards. I like him a lot,” Antetokounmpo said.

https://heavy.com/sports/nba/milwaukee-bucks/giannis-antetokounmpo-admission-anthony-edwards/

Giannis will be turning 31, but as one of the four best players in the NBA and an MVP candidate, he is probably worth more in trade than MIN has, if Ant is not in the offer. That said, MIL will likely try to send Giannis to a team where he wants to go. And unlike many American stars, Euros are often happy with whatever city they start in, and Minneapolis is close to Milwaukee, so he might not have biases against us. Still, I think there is virtually no chance, but it isn’t impossible.

I think there are some similarities to the Kevin Durant pursuit. I do think we can put out a more competitive offer than some people think. And Tim will be aggressive, which counts for something in negotiations. Ultimately though, it will likely come down to where Giannis wants to go. And I'm not sure we'll be high enough on that list to get him.