Jazzfan1971 and FloppyMoose's Season Preview - The Mavs

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:55 pm

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Lineup
-----------------------------------

PG - Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, Raymond Felton, Gal Mekel
SG - Monta Ellis, Richard Jefferson, Ricky Ledo
SF - Chandler Parsons, Al-Farouq Aminu, Jae Crowder
PF - Dirk Nowitzki, Charlie Villanueva
C - Tyson Chandler, Brandan Wright, Greg Smith

Trading Block: Raymond Felton seems like the odd man out to me. I -thought- he would come into camp in shape and wow the Mavs earning the starting position, instead that seems to have been the role provided by Jameer. Still, one could imagine the Mavs trying to showcase Felton a bit then moving him.

Position Battle: Backup 1, 2, and 3 and heck 4 and 5 are all a little murky to me. The starters seem pretty set, but, I don't have a good feel for who the second string is.

Mystery Man: I think the number of games you get from Tyson Chandler is the biggest X-factor for the Mavs this season. If he goes down they don't have a ton of depth/size to make up for it.

Floppymusings: It all comes down to Dirks health and/or decline. If he can perform at 90+% of last season's level and minutes, then the Mavs project out as the second best team in the west. RAPM loves both Chandlers, and Tyson has proven already that he can fit. Parson's hasn't but my goodness it looks like a natural fit to me. Ellis is playing his best ball next to Dirk. I'm not seeing a dropoff from Calderon to the three-headed PG. It all comes down to Dirk.

Jazzfanramblings: We have Dallas ranked #2 in the league this season. I am a bit lower on them that that though. I think they are a very solid team, but, I really can't see much separation from them and the other playoff squads in the West. In fact, I suspect that the 2nd round of the playoffs will be the end of the line for Dallas this year. Maybe even the first round. And heck, if Tyson Chandler goes down for any significant amount of time, Dallas could really struggle just to make the playoffs.

In short, I'm not as high on Dallas as this projection would indicate. I'm not as high as a lot of folks. Dallas is getting a lot of love around the league this year. And for good reason, Dallas had a terrific offseason netting the Chandler twins and the three headed point guard Jamevin Helton. They've also got a marquee player in Dirk and fantastic coaching in Carlisle. So, I'm not really sure why I'm down on them. It's just a gut feeling. Maybe I'm expecting a rash of injuries, it's certainly a possibility with that roster. Maybe it's just some sour grapes lingering from a playoff loss the Jazz suffered a lifetime ago. I dunno. But, my gut is saying Dallas will fall short of expectations this year.

Projected Record - 55/27

Post #2 » by **jazzfan1971** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:56 pm

matt6715 · Post #3 » by **matt6715** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:23 pm

Vegas has them at o/u 49.5, and they will blow past that as long as Tyson and Dirk don't miss more than 10-15 games each. Greg Smith hasn't shown as much as I was hoping in the preseason but overall I've been really happy with the starters so far. I'm personally thinking 53 wins and a 5 seed

Post #4 » by **Texas Chuck** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:26 pm

I'm sure we'd love to showcase Felton to trade him, but he's hurt to start the season and once he's medically cleared to play, his suspension starts. And by then if things are going well I can't see Rick wanting to work Felton into the rotation. I think he ends up being an insurance policy this year. If he picks up his option for next year as expected, then I imagine we attach a 2nd and some cash to clear that salary for our summer shopping.

I think Jefferson, Crowder, and Villanueva are going to have to fight to get minutes behind the starters, Devin, Aminu, and Wright. Smith will get minutes against the bigger centers that Wright can't handle.

Everything rides on health. Any long-term injury to Tyson, Monta, or Dirk is devastating. If those 3 play 70+ I think Dallas can fight for one of the home-court spots in the playoffs. If one of them(especially the bigs) misses a bunch of games, Dallas will have a dogfight just to get it.

Parsons, is the wild card in all this. He could turn out to be a huge difference-maker, but he could also be JAG.

Pan Jia Yuan · Post #5 » by **Pan Jia Yuan** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:49 pm

Well, Mavs won 49 games with a washed-up Dalembert last season. I'd gladly take 60 games of Chandler over 80 games of Dalembert.
In 2012/13 they had an admirably horrible team with all these one-year contracts, and they still went 27-20 when Dirk was healthy and actually started (13-16 without him, 1-5 when he came off the bench). Just saying: even after all these years, this team goes as far as Dirk goes. Going by advanced stats he was a Top 10/Top 12 player last season. An All-Star in the West. And that's really the biggest plus I see for the Mavs: Dirk's longevity, his durability (apart from that one season I mentioned he never missed more than 8 games), and his willingness to play for $8M a year.

Overall: I love their front court, I love Monta Ellis, and I think they are one of the deeper teams in the league.

Narjee · Post #6 » by **Narjee** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:06 pm

People are sleeping on the Mavs hard this year.

Post #7 » by **floppymoose** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:42 am

matt6715 wrote:Vegas has them at o/u 49.5, and they will blow past that as long as Tyson and Dirk don't miss more than 10-15 games each.

Yah, I have to take the over there as well.

RSCD3_ · Post #8 » by **RSCD3_** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:12 am

Chuck Texas wrote:I'm sure we'd love to showcase Felton to trade him, but he's hurt to start the season and once he's medically cleared to play, his suspension starts. And by then if things are going well I can't see Rick wanting to work Felton into the rotation. I think he ends up being an insurance policy this year. If he picks up his option for next year as expected, then I imagine we attach a 2nd and some cash to clear that salary for our summer shopping.

I think Jefferson, Crowder, and Villanueva are going to have to fight to get minutes behind the starters, Devin, Aminu, and Wright. Smith will get minutes against the bigger centers that Wright can't handle.

Everything rides on health. Any long-term injury to Tyson, Monta, or Dirk is devastating. If those 3 play 70+ I think Dallas can fight for one of the home-court spots in the playoffs. If one of them(especially the bigs) misses a bunch of games, Dallas will have a dogfight just to get it.

Parsons, is the wild card in all this. He could turn out to be a huge difference-maker, but he could also be JAG.

Who's a JAG

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Post #9 » by **jazzfan1971** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:17 am

I read it as Just Another Guy. But, not sure.

Dunham32 · Post #10 » by **Dunham32** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:29 am

While I think 55 wins is very possible for the Mavs, I would be extremely surprised if 55 wins is good enough for 2nd best in the league. I feel like 55 wins would get a team 3rd or 4th in the West and about 5th or 6th overall

Post #11 » by **floppymoose** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:23 am

I have to apply a scaling factor on scoring differential, otherwise the best team ends up with over 70 wins and the worst with half a dozen. I tried to tune that factor by picking the one that would have worked best for last season, but it's likely that it isn't perfect.

The good news for Mavs fans is it doesn't change them being second in the regular season. It would just change how extreme the records were.

Scalabrine · Post #12 » by **Scalabrine** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 7:10 am

Pan Jia Yuan wrote:Well, Mavs won 49 games with a washed-up Dalembert last season. I'd gladly take 60 games of Chandler over 80 games of Dalembert.
In 2012/13 they had an admirably horrible team with all these one-year contracts, and they still went 27-20 when Dirk was healthy and actually started (13-16 without him, 1-5 when he came off the bench). Just saying: even after all these years, this team goes as far as Dirk goes. Going by advanced stats he was a Top 10/Top 12 player last season. An All-Star in the West. And that's really the biggest plus I see for the Mavs: Dirk's longevity, his durability (apart from that one season I mentioned he never missed more than 8 games), and his willingness to play for $8M a year.

Overall: I love their front court, I love Monta Ellis, and I think they are one of the deeper teams in the league.

Oh you are so sadly mistaken on Chandler. At least last year, Dalembert was better. Chandler rarely contested shots and made the huge defensive impact he used to make and he still brought nothing on offense. He even blocked his own shot in the closing minute of an overtime game!

trlp1712 · Post #13 » by **trlp1712** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:09 pm

Scalabrine wrote:
Pan Jia Yuan wrote:Well, Mavs won 49 games with a washed-up Dalembert last season. I'd gladly take 60 games of Chandler over 80 games of Dalembert.
In 2012/13 they had an admirably horrible team with all these one-year contracts, and they still went 27-20 when Dirk was healthy and actually started (13-16 without him, 1-5 when he came off the bench). Just saying: even after all these years, this team goes as far as Dirk goes. Going by advanced stats he was a Top 10/Top 12 player last season. An All-Star in the West. And that's really the biggest plus I see for the Mavs: Dirk's longevity, his durability (apart from that one season I mentioned he never missed more than 8 games), and his willingness to play for $8M a year.

Overall: I love their front court, I love Monta Ellis, and I think they are one of the deeper teams in the league.

Oh you are so sadly mistaken on Chandler. At least last year, Dalembert was better. Chandler rarely contested shots and made the huge defensive impact he used to make and he still brought nothing on offense. He even blocked his own shot in the closing minute of an overtime game!

HAve you seen Samuel Dalembert play lately?

Perkele · Post #14 » by **Perkele** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:22 pm

Scalabrine wrote:
Pan Jia Yuan wrote:Well, Mavs won 49 games with a washed-up Dalembert last season. I'd gladly take 60 games of Chandler over 80 games of Dalembert.
In 2012/13 they had an admirably horrible team with all these one-year contracts, and they still went 27-20 when Dirk was healthy and actually started (13-16 without him, 1-5 when he came off the bench). Just saying: even after all these years, this team goes as far as Dirk goes. Going by advanced stats he was a Top 10/Top 12 player last season. An All-Star in the West. And that's really the biggest plus I see for the Mavs: Dirk's longevity, his durability (apart from that one season I mentioned he never missed more than 8 games), and his willingness to play for $8M a year.

Overall: I love their front court, I love Monta Ellis, and I think they are one of the deeper teams in the league.

Oh you are so sadly mistaken on Chandler. At least last year, Dalembert was better. Chandler rarely contested shots and made the huge defensive impact he used to make and he still brought nothing on offense. He even blocked his own shot in the closing minute of an overtime game!

Dalembert was decent when he was motivated to put some effort into the game. Unfortunately, that was rarely the case, maybe 15-20 games. In the other games he was pretty meh or even very bad.

matt6715 · Post #15 » by **matt6715** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:52 pm

Perkele wrote:
Scalabrine wrote:
Pan Jia Yuan wrote:Well, Mavs won 49 games with a washed-up Dalembert last season. I'd gladly take 60 games of Chandler over 80 games of Dalembert.
In 2012/13 they had an admirably horrible team with all these one-year contracts, and they still went 27-20 when Dirk was healthy and actually started (13-16 without him, 1-5 when he came off the bench). Just saying: even after all these years, this team goes as far as Dirk goes. Going by advanced stats he was a Top 10/Top 12 player last season. An All-Star in the West. And that's really the biggest plus I see for the Mavs: Dirk's longevity, his durability (apart from that one season I mentioned he never missed more than 8 games), and his willingness to play for $8M a year.

Overall: I love their front court, I love Monta Ellis, and I think they are one of the deeper teams in the league.

Oh you are so sadly mistaken on Chandler. At least last year, Dalembert was better. Chandler rarely contested shots and made the huge defensive impact he used to make and he still brought nothing on offense. He even blocked his own shot in the closing minute of an overtime game!

Dalembert was decent when he was motivated to put some effort into the game. Unfortunately, that was rarely the case, maybe 15-20 games. In the other games he was pretty meh or even very bad.

This is something Knicks and Mavs fans will never be able to agree on... we'll just have to see how the season plays out. I personally believe Chandler is going to be motivated being back on this team, and like the poster above said, Sam played well when he was locked in. I hope this is a trade both fanbases can look back on as wins

Post #16 » by **Texas Chuck** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:14 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:I read it as Just Another Guy. But, not sure.

correct.

And on Dalembert V Chandler:

Look when Dalembert was motivated and wanted to play hard, he was every bit as good as Tyson was last year. He protected the rim, he rebounded well, he was solid with catching and finishing. The problem with Daly, and the reason a big with his abilities to defend and rebound at high levels keeps finding himself on a new team each year is that he only cares about 1 in every 4 games. When he played even half the game the Mavs were nearly unbeatable--his presence made that much difference. But when he's not mentally engaged he kills the team.

Chandler won't ever have that problem. I know Knicks fans are salty about everything that happened last year including Chandler, but his career long track-record has earned him the benefit of the doubt. And not just his one year in Dallas. He was great in NY. He was strong in New Orleans when he could stay healthy. He's a team guy and he's about winning. And he's a vocal, emotional leader something helpful on a team where Dirk is more of a lead by example guy and Monta doesn't really have that personality either. He fills a gap there.

Dallas has a very short window with Dirk's age. We can't afford to depend on a guy who plays hard only when he feels like it.

Perkele · Post #17 » by **Perkele** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:41 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
jazzfan1971 wrote:I read it as Just Another Guy. But, not sure.

correct.

And on Dalembert V Chandler:

Look when Dalembert was motivated and wanted to play hard, he was every bit as good as Tyson was last year. He protected the rim, he rebounded well, he was solid with catching and finishing. The problem with Daly, and the reason a big with his abilities to defend and rebound at high levels keeps finding himself on a new team each year is that he only cares about 1 in every 4 games. When he played even half the game the Mavs were nearly unbeatable--his presence made that much difference. But when he's not mentally engaged he kills the team.

Chandler won't ever have that problem. I know Knicks fans are salty about everything that happened last year including Chandler, but his career long track-record has earned him the benefit of the doubt. And not just his one year in Dallas. He was great in NY. He was strong in New Orleans when he could stay healthy. He's a team guy and he's about winning. And he's a vocal, emotional leader something helpful on a team where Dirk is more of a lead by example guy and Monta doesn't really have that personality either. He fills a gap there.

Dallas has a very short window with Dirk's age. We can't afford to depend on a guy who plays hard only when he feels like it.

That's exactly my point.

Dunham32 · Post #18 » by **Dunham32** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 3:41 pm

Knick fans need to stop saying Dalembert was as good as Chandler. If that was the case, then the Mavs gave up the better PG, C, prospect, and picks for a worse PG and C. Thats not how trades work. The Mavs gave up the better PG, prospect and picks to UPGRADE from Dalembert to Chandler. You can argue about motivation all you want but if there was even a chance Chandler would be anywhere near Dalembert's level, the Mavs wouldnt have done the trade

Post #19 » by **floppymoose** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:01 pm

In the data used for the projections, there is a big gap between Chandler and Delambert:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_ ... position/9

The key for Chandler will be staying healthy. If he does he should be a big step up.

SaintofKillers · Post #20 » by **SaintofKillers** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:05 pm

To be fair with Dalembert, Carlisle took the "oversleeping" incidents personally and gave him a short 5 to 10 minute leash. For all his faults and often subpar play, he was gold when given more than 25 minutes.. which was strange considering the other option was Brandan freaking Wright and an equally inconsistent and defensive liability that is Blair. I'd say he's our 3rd best center all time.

As for Chandler, he brings one thing to the table that is really going to help the team immensely and you can count on him to bring every single game and second on the court: communication. That alone makes him an upgrade over Dalembert.