Minnesota early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/Klomp)

[YourBuddy]

I think they will exceed .500. If the team is anything close to what they were post all star break last year along with their additions, then I would say 42-45 wins isn't out of reach. Kris Dunn was such a good addition this year, because it also keeps LaVine at is natural position where he goes from terrible impact to good impact on the game. Thibs will take Wiggins from just a good defensive player in isolation to a good all around defensive player. It will be interesting to see how much his defensive metrics increase. Also upgrading from those Adreian Payne and Greg Smith minutes to Cole Aldrich or Jordan Hill minutes, while might get overlooked should be a nice boost as well. The bench won't be as pathetic this year. Shabazz and Bjelica showed a lot of life post all star break as well last year, I think it will be interesting to see if and how Thibs uses those players.

[mtron929]

Can someone tell me the consistency in reasoning of giving high marks of drafting Dunn at #5 vs not giving the Lakers high mark at drafting Ingram at #2? One can make an argument that in both cases, any GM could have taken Dunn at #5 and Ingram at #2 based on what was available. If we were to grade the draft right after the draft without seeing the players play any minutes, it seems like one can make an argument that most teams should grade similarly in the draft given that they take the players that they are expected to take pre-draft for the most part.

[Domejandro]

I'm taking sig-bets that we win at least 48 (assuming both Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns play 70 games).

If I am wrong, I will put something like (just as an example), "Unlike my sorry comprehension of the game, these folks have developed an elite understanding for the game of basketball..."

In return, if I am right, all I ask for is something like, "Gee whiz, that Domejandro guy is brilliant."

EDIT: It will be for the 2017 off-season only, and be wiped by the first game of the 2017-18 NBA season.


That aside, sorry I did not reply to the PM in time, it has been a busy week.

I'd be happy to do a team logo bet. If Wolves win >= 48 games in 2016-17 I'll change my favourite team logo to Minnesota for the offseason and the 2017-18 season. If they win < 48 games, you can change yours to the Lakers for the same duration.

Done deal with my contingencies of health for those two players (we are so screwed if Ricky Rubio or KAT goes down )

[loserX]

Best move: hiring Thibodeau. I've mentioned this before, but the Wolves are working on the third longest playoff drought in history...having young talent is great but eventually you have to see some postseason action. Thibodeau has his warts, but he adds credibility to the franchise and knows how to win in the regular season. Only caveat: he likes to run veterans into the ground while kids can lie fallow, so he'll have to make sure not to forget important development time for young players.

Worst move: none really. Signing Hill after everyone else seemed kind of unnecessary, but maybe they're really expecting nothing at all from KG and Pekovic this year. (Or, as mentioned above, Thibs has some doubts about Bjelica.) But they got a good player in the draft and filled out their roster with useful players.

We have to see how it all plays out of course, but adding Thibs and depth with no real missteps makes this an A for me.

[GopherIt!]

I'm not as high on Dunn as most, people tend to forget he's 22. That being said I though Murray was the perfect fit for them and would have fit perfectly with Rubio going forward. I wonder if the signing of Hill and Aldrich might be related to wether they believe Dieng will be resigned. I'd give them a B+, even though I didn't like the Dunn pick or the Aldrich signing bringing in Thibs is huge and I might be the one person who thinks Hill will make a good backup center.

Those signings have no relation to Dieng being resigned or not. Aldritch is a backup and Hill is unguaranteed next season.

Murray would have been a fantastic fit, but I am a firm believer in BPA, and Dunn was the 3rd best player in the draft while Murray was 6th/7th and a tier below Dunn.

Murray was higher on Chad Ford's board. Bender has higher than Dunn on DX's board.

When there is something like a tier breakdown that Ford does by polling teams, Dunn was absolutely in the same tier as Murray. So, even if some had Dunn a little higher, I think your comment is an exaggeration of the degree of that.

But I agree those signings have nothing to do with Dieng's long term prospects.

Ford's credibility has been completely destroyed. You might as well quote the National Enquirer. " Batboy works out for Boston, expected to be picked in top five." By draft day, Dunn was the clear cut 3rd best player. He has a higher upside than Murray who has significant physical limitations. Murray should excel as a shooter but he will not be able to defend either guard position.

[GopherIt!]

I love Wiggins defensive potential. I've said it a number of times already, the Thibs hiring will help Drew more than anyone.

[Slava]

I'm taking sig-bets that we win at least 48 (assuming both Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns play 70 games).

If I am wrong, I will put something like (just as an example), "Unlike my sorry comprehension of the game, these folks have developed an elite understanding for the game of basketball..."

In return, if I am right, all I ask for is something like, "Gee whiz, that Domejandro guy is brilliant."

EDIT: It will be for the 2017 off-season only, and be wiped by the first game of the 2017-18 NBA season.


That aside, sorry I did not reply to the PM in time, it has been a busy week.

I'd be happy to do a team logo bet. If Wolves win >= 48 games in 2016-17 I'll change my favourite team logo to Minnesota for the offseason and the 2017-18 season. If they win < 48 games, you can change yours to the Lakers for the same duration.

Done deal with my contingencies of health for those two players (we are so screwed if Ricky Rubio or KAT goes down )

Yeah, no go. I'll give you a concession and set the threshold at 45, irrespective of who's injured and healthy.

[HartfordWhalers]

Those signings have no relation to Dieng being resigned or not. Aldritch is a backup and Hill is unguaranteed next season.

Murray would have been a fantastic fit, but I am a firm believer in BPA, and Dunn was the 3rd best player in the draft while Murray was 6th/7th and a tier below Dunn.

Murray was higher on Chad Ford's board. Bender has higher than Dunn on DX's board.

When there is something like a tier breakdown that Ford does by polling teams, Dunn was absolutely in the same tier as Murray. So, even if some had Dunn a little higher, I think your comment is an exaggeration of the degree of that.

But I agree those signings have nothing to do with Dieng's long term prospects.

Ford's credibility has been completely destroyed. You might as well quote the National Enquirer. " Batboy works out for Boston, expected to be picked in top five." By draft day, Dunn was the clear cut 3rd best player. He has a higher upside than Murray who has significant physical limitations. Murray should excel as a shooter but he will not be able to defend either guard position.

Crazy then that no one once referred to it as a 3 player draft. Although it does make more sense when you consider that Dunn wasn't view as a tier ahead versus a preference within tier by anyone credible.

I mean the Wolves board had Dunn go 6th on their big board -- viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1454869, the idea that he was a clear.

You were personally posting stuff like:

Phoenix doesn't need Dunn, Murray or Hield either. Jaylen Brown seems like the early front runner.

Quick mock lotto draft off the top of my head:

Phi - Ingram
LAL - Simmons
Bos - Bender
Phx - Brown
MN - Murray
NO - Hield
DEN - Luwawu
SAC - Dunn

And:

If Ainge outsmarts himself and picks Dunn, Phoenix or Minny will be all over Bender.

So if you want to then come in here after the fact and explain how clear cut Dunn was at 3 despite personally having Minnesota taking Murray over him and mocking the idea of him being 3rd elsewhere, I am going to have a hard time taking it as a serious post.

[Domejandro]

I'd be happy to do a team logo bet. If Wolves win >= 48 games in 2016-17 I'll change my favourite team logo to Minnesota for the offseason and the 2017-18 season. If they win < 48 games, you can change yours to the Lakers for the same duration.

Done deal with my contingencies of health for those two players (we are so screwed if Ricky Rubio or KAT goes down )

Yeah, no go. I'll give you a concession and set the threshold at 45, irrespective of who's injured and healthy.

Given Ricky's inconsistent health 45 is more than fair. If it works for you, it works for me.

[Slava]

Done deal with my contingencies of health for those two players (we are so screwed if Ricky Rubio or KAT goes down )

Yeah, no go. I'll give you a concession and set the threshold at 45, irrespective of who's injured and healthy.

Given Ricky's inconsistent health 45 is more than fair. If it works for you, it works for me.

Deal.

[nomansland]

Besides the coaching change their offseason wasn't really very remarkable. As a Senior, Dunn may enter the NBA more ready than other rookies but over the long haul that should even out. Anyway if you drafted in the top 6 or 7 it was hard to make mistakes. The only team I thought actively did well was Phoenix by trading up for the 8th pick.

Of course the coaching change could be huge. We'll see what Thibs brings but if I were a Minnesota fan I'd be very optimistic. So baseed on that alone I went with B+.

[Klomp]

Other than Klomp being a little optimistic, this is the closest we might have to consensus on win/loss predictions. 1 - 37 and 3 - 38s.

Funny that 41 wins is me being optimistic. There are many on the Wolves board who feel that would be a terrible season. A sampling of quotes:

"absolutely no reason we should not be in the playoffs."
"With Thibs no excuses, this team should win 45-50 games next year."
"If this team doesn't make the playoffs next year it is an unequivocal fail"
"If we can't make the playoffs next year we should be ashamed."
"With a good coach on board and more developed players it's playoffs or bust."
"45 wins or Thibs is a bust."
"I expect no less than Play-off."
"If (Thibs) delivers on getting us to the playoffs fine. Otherwise he's going to catch heat, and a lot of it."
"Playoffs should be a must."
"I also believe its playoffs or bust next season."

Those quotes were all from the weekend following the draft, meaning no free agent moves had been made yet.

[breatnach]

Other than Klomp being a little optimistic, this is the closest we might have to consensus on win/loss predictions. 1 - 37 and 3 - 38s.

Funny that 41 wins is me being optimistic. There are many on the Wolves board who feel that would be a terrible season. A sampling of quotes:

"absolutely no reason we should not be in the playoffs."
"With Thibs no excuses, this team should win 45-50 games next year."
"If this team doesn't make the playoffs next year it is an unequivocal fail"
"If we can't make the playoffs next year we should be ashamed."
"With a good coach on board and more developed players it's playoffs or bust."
"45 wins or Thibs is a bust."
"I expect no less than Play-off."
"If (Thibs) delivers on getting us to the playoffs fine. Otherwise he's going to catch heat, and a lot of it."
"Playoffs should be a must."
"I also believe its playoffs or bust next season."

Those quotes were all from the weekend following the draft, meaning no free agent moves had been made yet.

Haha, I hope none of those were me.

I think the off-season moves (especially KD) opened up the Northwest. Having GS (and SAS) winning 60+ games will probably mean less wins are needed to make the POs. Also having no blatantly tanking team means it will be a pretty close race. I think there will be very few wins between the 5th seed and the 12th seed. Probably only 4 of the following 7 will get into the post-season.

UTA, DAL, HOU, POR, OKC, MIN, NOP

[Trader_Joe]

Definitely a good off-season, but like I said in the Utah thread, it seems there are two trendy bandwagons right now.. Utah and Minny. I think Utah is more likely to live up to expectations for a variety of reason, many of which are why I think Minny will improve but not to the point we see here.

First off Utah adds some great vets and difference makers. I think Minny is much more reliant on internal growth and are still too young a team to win night in and night out.

Secondly, I think there defense leave a lot to be desired especially on the wings.

Third, I think there might be some growing pains with a new coach in fold.

Finally, yes OKC will drop off in the West, and Miami in the East, but so many teams think they improved this off-season and I don't think many took a clear step back. Where all the extra wins going to come from?

I think 40 wins would be a great success, but I think mid 30's is more realistic and I wouldn't be surprised if it's less and they are truly one year away from the PO.

[Colbinii]

Finally, yes OKC will drop off in the West, and Miami in the East, but so many teams think they improved this off-season and I don't think many took a clear step back. Where all the extra wins going to come from?

This is something that needs to be brought up here. I brought it up in the Orlando thread and nobody repled.
Every team in the NBA thinks they have improved, and a lot of teams did. Just because your team improved doesn't mean your win total will improve.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Other than Klomp being a little optimistic, this is the closest we might have to consensus on win/loss predictions. 1 - 37 and 3 - 38s.

Funny that 41 wins is me being optimistic. There are many on the Wolves board who feel that would be a terrible season. A sampling of quotes:

"absolutely no reason we should not be in the playoffs."
"With Thibs no excuses, this team should win 45-50 games next year."
"If this team doesn't make the playoffs next year it is an unequivocal fail"
"If we can't make the playoffs next year we should be ashamed."
"With a good coach on board and more developed players it's playoffs or bust."
"45 wins or Thibs is a bust."
"I expect no less than Play-off."
"If (Thibs) delivers on getting us to the playoffs fine. Otherwise he's going to catch heat, and a lot of it."
"Playoffs should be a must."
"I also believe its playoffs or bust next season."

Those quotes were all from the weekend following the draft, meaning no free agent moves had been made yet.

Wolves homers. But no, I think >= .500 should be the bare minimum goal. Upgrading Sam Mitchell to Thibodeau, replacing D-League level big man depth with NBA level depth, replacing the horrific Andre Miller/Kevin Martin combo with Dunn/Rush, and most importantly for any young team - another year of experience.

31 -> 41 wins doesn't seem like too much to ask for. If they stay healthy and win under 40 games, then everybody owes Sam Mitchell an apology.

[Woody Allen]

Thibs acquisition is fantastic, and I expect its legacy to surpass the underwhelming Garnett era, but for this off-season I'm quite unimpressed with the free agents they signed. I don't think the roster as is meshes well and they need drastic improvements in the backcourt.

[Sugarless]

Certainly much more reasonable expectations here than on the Wolves board, as you'd expect.

Somewhere around 38 to 41 wins seems perfectly fair and justifiable. As some have said before, the Wolves will rely very heavily on internal development (and health, and consistency, and bench production) and that's never easy when you have so many young pieces and a new coach coming in. Some of the guys may take a considerable step forward, some other won't, while it's difficult for everybody to have an injury free season and even more difficult that such a young team will understand and execute to perfection everything that their new HC asks of them (and this is a pretty demanding coach too).

Absolutely everything would have to go right for them to get 45 wins with the roster as is, and that would be amazing success. Anything close to that would be extremely good, while those close to 50 wins predictions are more wishful thinking than remotely realistic hopes.

[GopherIt!]

Crazy then that no one once referred to it as a 3 player draft. Although it does make more sense when you consider that Dunn wasn't view as a tier ahead versus a preference within tier by anyone credible.

I mean the Wolves board had Dunn go 6th on their big board -- viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1454869, the idea that he was a clear.

You were personally posting stuff like:

Phoenix doesn't need Dunn, Murray or Hield either. Jaylen Brown seems like the early front runner.

Quick mock lotto draft off the top of my head:

And:

If Ainge outsmarts himself and picks Dunn, Phoenix or Minny will be all over Bender.

So if you want to then come in here after the fact and explain how clear cut Dunn was at 3 despite personally having Minnesota taking Murray over him and mocking the idea of him being 3rd elsewhere, I am going to have a hard time taking it as a serious post.

That was a misleading quote. My comment was made on May 18th, the day of the lottery drawing. Obviously alot changes between May 18th and the draft. It was also totally off the cuff and based on need (not a ranking.) if u want to misrepresent that as my gospel draft position that's on you.

My Ainge/Bender comment was made in jest, I wanted Danny to pick Bender so there was no chance we'd pick him.

Since you are interested in my thoughts, I will say I had Dunn as the clear cut third pick in the draft. I had totally written off him being available at pick five.

[HartfordWhalers]

if u want to misrepresent that as my gospel draft position that's on you.

My Ainge/Bender comment was made in jest, I wanted Danny to pick Bender so there was no chance we'd pick him.

Since you are interested in my thoughts, I will say I had Dunn as the clear cut third pick in the draft. I had totally written off him being available at pick five.

Thats crazy. Cause thats the opposite of what the guy with your exact same RealGM account spent the entire pre-draft time posting.

Less than 2 weeks before the draft:

Murray is my first choice.

viewtopic.php?p=47788383#p47788383

Here is 2 days before the draft:

If available, who's your favorite at #5?
Dragan Bender 43 47%
Kris Dunn 7 8%
Buddy Hield 13 14%
Jamal Murray 24 26%

Murray or Buddy.

viewtopic.php?p=47973085#p47973085

Dunn was an option, but you didn't pick him. Instead just like every other post you made from May until after Dunn was picked, you talked about wanting Murray.

Who coincidentally you kept posting about on the draft board that week:

Does anyone else see similarities in his game with OJ Mayo?

If the Wolves draft him at five I may change my screen name to "liljamalmurray."

And earlier:

Jamal Murray is going to struggle in the league. And it's a shame because he seems like a good kid. I hope his shooting ability off screens helps him get a long career as a bench shooter that can put it on the floor a little.

Admit it Dell, you would pick him if he is available.

While skipping all Dunn threads entirely, almost like you wanted Murray as your comments said.

Here is draft day:

Murray or Buddy.

Like Davis, Sabonis or korkmaz if we trade down.

viewtopic.php?p=48015027#p48015027

Which follows since you made it clear you were big on Murray from the get go with all your posts. Even after the draft, you couldn;t get fully away from Murray:

But now, suddenly the story is different. Whether it is unintentional selective memory or something a lot worse, I'm really not interested in the explanation for your sudden about face. But your posts all tell the tale pretty clearly of what you thought pre-draft.

And whether you are now hiding your initial preference or not, it is pretty clear the Wolves board was very split between Dunn/Murray/Hield in their draft thread with tons of posts going back and forth between all the none of the players clearcut above the other or widespread favorites as originally suggested here. Both in the above wolves board were Dunn falls to 6th, the separate Wolves board were he also falls to 6th (viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1454869) and the general discussion were a large number of posters favored Hield and Murray over him -- viewtopic.php?p=47746017#p47746017